事件： 7 月9 日，晨光生物发布《2025 年半年度业绩预告》，2025H1，晨光生物预计实现营业收入 34.60 至37.60 亿元，同比-0.89%至+7.71%；预计实现归母净利润2.02 至2.32 亿元，同比增长102.33 至 132.38%。 今年公司植提业务多个主要产品价格均处于底部区间，短期来看，公司未来几年有望持续受益周期叠加 上行；中期来看，梯队产品放量、海外种植基地面积及效率提高、天然色素加速替代、保健品需求持续 扩大等潜在增长，都有望拓展公司的增长曲线。 投资建议：公司是植物提取物领域龙头企业，既有优势品种盈利水平较稳定，规模化品种抢占市场份额 保持较高增速，储备品种前景好，"三步走"战略稳步推进。公司技术领先行业，成本优势显著。赞比亚 种植园持续建设将进一步降低成本，保健品业务持续培育潜力大，短期调整不改长期优势加强趋势，预 计公司2025-2027 年EPS 为0.72、0.83、1.00 元，对应PE 分别为19.0X、16.3X、13.6X，维持"买入"评 级。 风险提示：原材料价格大幅波动、下游需求不及预期、产品出口受阻、原材料采购和加工的季节性，关 税影响。 棉籽行情稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The health supplement industry is poised for transformation driven by new channels and customer segments, leading to increased demand for functional products and innovation opportunities [1][2]. Market Overview - The health supplement market in China is projected to reach 232.3 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4%. Compared to the U.S., there is significant room for growth in penetration rates across all age groups, particularly as younger consumers develop habits and the population ages [2][3]. - The market is characterized by a fragmented landscape, with the top three companies (Tongrentang, Amway, and H&H) holding a combined market share of 22% [2]. Channel and Demand Dynamics - New channels, particularly e-commerce platforms like Douyin, are expected to drive functionalization in the health supplement industry, with Douyin's GMV for health supplements increasing by 44% year-on-year [3]. - The rise of new customer segments, including younger consumers and those seeking specific health benefits, is creating opportunities for new brands and product categories [3]. Product Category Insights - Fish Oil: Market size between 5-10 billion, with high growth potential due to its anti-inflammatory and beauty benefits [4]. - Coenzyme Q10: Market size of 4.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17%, driven by demand from women and stress-related health concerns [4]. - Probiotics: Market size exceeds 10 billion, focusing on gut health and extending to weight management, with top brands achieving over 1 billion in retail sales [4]. - Oral Beauty Supplements: Market size exceeds 10 billion, with high average prices and rapid growth in innovative ingredients [4]. - Basic Nutrients: Vitamins, minerals, and proteins have market sizes of 32.9 billion, 27.1 billion, and 11.6 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 5%, and 1% [4]. Competitive Landscape - The industry is experiencing a shift towards product innovation, with traditional brands facing competition from new entrants that leverage unique ingredients and formulations [3][4].

2024年我国维生素及膳食补充剂VDS市场规模2323亿同比+4%，对比美国，我国各年龄段保健品渗透率 均较美国具备提升空间，后续随中青年培养保健品消费习惯及老龄化，市场具备长期成长性。保健品成 分、作用部位众多，需求较为分散，因此格局分散，2024年我国VDS市场公司口径CR3为22%，TOP3 汤臣倍健、安利、H&H零售额均超百亿。与美妆类似，保健品高毛利率、高营销费用率，功效化阶段 更早、龙头烈度更低，当下处于变革新阶段。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 千亿保健品市场，有望随新人群、新需求扩容 国泰海通发布研报称，与美妆类似，保健品高毛利率、高营销费用率，功效化阶段更早、龙头烈度更 低，当下处于变革新阶段。新渠道、新客群有望催化保健品功效性新需求，行业迎来变革新机遇，看好 产品创新能力突出叠加强运营的品牌跑出。推荐代运营转型自主品牌孵化、斐萃品牌放量的若羽臣 （003010）(003010.SZ)，关注汤臣倍健（300146）(300146.SZ)的调整改善，相关标的：金达威 （002626）(002626.SZ)、H&H国际控股(01112)、仙乐健康（300791）(300791.SZ)、百合股份 （60 ...

Core Insights - The demand for grape seed health products is increasing due to rising living standards and health awareness among consumers [1][16] - The market size of grape seed health products in China is projected to grow from 5 billion yuan in 2019 to 9 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 12% [1][16] - Technological advancements in extraction efficiency and purity are supporting the growth of the grape seed health product market [1][16] Industry Overview - Grape seed health products are derived from grape seeds and contain beneficial components such as vitamins, minerals, amino acids, and antioxidants, offering various health benefits [3][10] - The industry can be categorized by product form (tablets, capsules, liquid), efficacy (antioxidant, anti-aging), and usage scenarios (daily health, beauty, sports nutrition) [5][10] Market Dynamics - The grape seed health product market is experiencing rapid expansion due to the growth of e-commerce and diversified marketing channels [1][16] - The increase in grape production in China, from 13.16 million tons in 2015 to 16.17 million tons in 2023, is expected to provide ample raw materials for grape seed health products [12][14] Regulatory Environment - Recent policies in China aim to promote the integration of the food industry with health and wellness sectors, enhancing the market for functional foods and health products [6][9] Competitive Landscape - Major players in the grape seed health product market include well-known domestic brands such as汤臣倍健 (Tongrentang), 康恩贝 (Kang En Bei), and 九芝堂 (Jiu Zhi Tang), as well as international brands like Nature's Way and NOW Foods [18][19] - Companies are enhancing their competitiveness through improved production technologies and brand marketing strategies [18][19] Consumer Trends - There is a notable increase in consumer demand for high-quality grape seed health products, particularly among women and young adults aged 18 to 35, who represent 83.7% of the health supplement market [24][25] - Consumers are increasingly focused on product quality, efficacy, and safety, necessitating continuous improvement in product formulations [24][25] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to benefit from technological advancements that enhance product absorption and bioavailability [25][26] - The trend of online and offline integration in sales channels is becoming crucial for market growth, providing consumers with a more convenient shopping experience [26][27] - International expansion is a growing trend, with Chinese companies leveraging their resources and technology to compete in global markets [27]

编者按： 这里是民生调查局，见人所未见，调查民生之变。关注你想关注的、你没 关注的，调查你想看的、未看到的。 中新网北京6月29日电(赵方园)电话里母亲那句"专家说高血压喝骆驼奶好"，让刘梅心头一紧。回到 家，四大箱驼奶粉堆在客厅，餐桌上还摊着手抄的养生笔记，刘梅无奈，母亲又在直播间"上课"了。 退休后，刘梅的母亲沉迷养生直播间，时不时就买回一两件保健品，有的是带有"小蓝帽"标识的维生 素，有的是被夸大成能治百病的固体饮料。"总比生病把钱送医院强。"这一次，刘梅的母亲在直播间花 费18280元买下96罐骆驼奶。 刘梅母亲的遭遇并非个例。中国新闻网《民生调查局》记者调查发现，当前大量养生讲座从线下"转 战"抖音、快手等平台的直播间，主播们通过食疗调理、中医养生保健等内容吸引老年群体，以免费学 习为饵，将老人从直播间引至私域平台。 这些直播间不再鼓吹"仙丹神药"，转而用"提升免疫力""心脏舒服了"等笼统话术，将普通食品包装成千 元"秘方保健品"，并利用一场场科普讲课，潜移默化影响老人的判断。 短视频直播平台引流入群，背后暗藏天价课程 65岁的张大强在刷短视频时，被一个名为 "韩老师说营养"的直播间吸引。屏幕前，一 ...

饶毅告诉经济观察报，之所以发文质疑麦角硫因，是因为他总体认为保健品不值得过分推广。 科伦药业认为，饶毅文中"未获药品批准即属无效"的论断有点 武断和对膳食补充剂存有偏见。饶毅则对经济观察报说，这份 回应是科伦药业"不负责任"的又一例证。 作者： 张铃 封图：图虫创意 6月5日，知名生物学家、北京大学教授饶毅在其微信公众号"饶议科学"上发文炮轰麦角硫因是"假 药"、科伦药业（002422.SZ）董事长刘革新裸露身体来兜售"假药"。 6月6日上午，科伦药业通过微信公众号"科伦永年大健康"回应饶毅的质疑。 6月6日下午，饶毅在接受经济观察报采访时说："（科伦药业的）这篇反驳就是糊弄老百姓。" 在医药行业，75岁的刘革新有"输液大王"之称。一个月前，刘革新在广告片中大秀肌肉，用自己 的身体，为公司抗衰产品麦角硫因胶囊代言。麦角硫因是一种天然水性含硫氨基酸，有抗氧化能 力，近年来被广泛用在化妆品和保健品领域。刘革新力推的麦角硫因胶囊售价1499元/瓶。 6月5日，在名为《假药靠肌肉男真人"赤膊上阵"，真药伟哥仅以小小"老鼠作证"》的质疑文章中， 饶毅说：凡是没有足够令人信服的证据，不能获得批准成为真药，是假药的，只好以 ...

6月5日，知名生物学家、北京大学教授饶毅在其微信公众号"饶议科学"上发文炮轰麦角硫因是"假药"、 科伦药业（002422）（002422.SZ）董事长刘革新裸露身体来兜售"假药"。 6月6日上午，科伦药业通过微信公众号"科伦永年大健康"回应饶毅的质疑。 6月6日下午，饶毅在接受经济观察报采访时说："（科伦药业的）这篇反驳就是糊弄老百姓。" 在医药行业，75岁的刘革新有"输液大王"之称。一个月前，刘革新在广告片中大秀肌肉，用自己的身 体，为公司抗衰产品麦角硫因胶囊代言。麦角硫因是一种天然水性含硫氨基酸，有抗氧化能力，近年来 被广泛用在化妆品和保健品领域。刘革新力推的麦角硫因胶囊售价1499元/瓶。 6月5日，在名为《假药靠肌肉男真人"赤膊上阵"，真药伟哥仅以小小"老鼠作证"》的质疑文章中，饶毅 说：凡是没有足够令人信服的证据，不能获得批准成为真药，是假药的，只好以保健品方式蒙人、骗 人，麦角硫因就是"假药"。 饶毅告诉经济观察报，之所以发文质疑麦角硫因，是因为他总体认为保健品不值得过分推广。 在这篇质疑文章中，饶毅对刘革新进行了不点名批评：商人与企业家有天壤之别。企业家需要做出真东 西来。商人只要能够推销就可以 ...

6月5日，知名生物学家、前首都医科大学校长、现任北京大学校务委员会副主任、理学部主任饶毅在其 公众号上发布《假药靠肌肉男真人"赤膊上阵"，真药伟哥仅以小小"老鼠作证"》一文，直指科伦药业旗 下的麦角硫因胶囊为"假药"，引发了舆论的广泛关注。 饶毅在文中指出，"如果药物确实能够对动物或人有延年益寿的作用，早就会有人提供足够证据获得药 监部门批准。因为缺乏证据，得不到批准，销售商才走保健品的路子。"在他看来，凡是没有足够令人 信服的证据，不能获得批准成为真药，是假药的，只好以保健品方式蒙人、骗人，麦角硫因就是"假 药"。 对此，科伦药业于6月6日上午通过"科伦永年大健康"公众号发布，声明强调三点立场：公司从未将麦角 硫因作为药物宣传，其定位是"功能性健康产品"；产品基于科学理论和品牌影响力，在海外有明确科研 论文和临床论证支持；指责饶毅文章存在"偷换概念"问题。 此前，科伦药业董事长刘革新大秀肌肉，为公司新产品麦角硫因胶囊代言，麦角硫因也因此进入大众视 野。 公开资料显示，麦角硫因是一种天然抗氧化剂，在人体内可以对细胞起到保护作用，它具有清除自由 基、解毒、维持DNA的生物合成、细胞的正常生长及细胞免疫等多种生理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that any substance lacking sufficient evidence to be approved as a genuine drug is considered a fake drug, and it highlights that ergothioneine is categorized as a "fake drug" [4]. Group 1: Drug Approval and Evidence - Genuine drugs require substantial evidence for approval from regulatory authorities, while those without such evidence are labeled as fake drugs [3][5]. - The article references the case of Viagra, which was approved after rigorous scientific research demonstrated its efficacy, contrasting it with ergothioneine, which lacks similar evidence [2][5]. Group 2: Ethical Concerns in Marketing - The promotion of ergothioneine is presented as an example of unethical marketing practices, where merchants prioritize sales over integrity [8]. - The article criticizes the use of unconventional marketing tactics, such as male nude performances, to sell fake drugs, indicating a moral decline in the health supplement industry [9][12]. Group 3: Consumer Responsibility - Consumers purchasing ergothioneine are portrayed as easily deceived, and the article advises against using such products as a means of showing filial piety, suggesting that genuine care involves spending quality time with loved ones instead [13][14].

不过在6月5日，知名生物学家、前首都医科大学校长、现任北京大学校务委员会副主任、理学部主任饶毅在其公众 号"饶议科学"上发布标题为《假药靠肌肉男真人"赤膊上阵"，真药伟哥仅以小小"老鼠作证"》的文章，称"麦角硫因就 是'假药'"。 智通财经记者 | 唐卓雅 智通财经编辑 | 谢欣 一月前，科伦药业董事长刘革新大秀肌肉，为公司新产品麦角硫因胶囊代言，麦角硫因也因此进入大众视野。随后，科 伦药业及为该产品提供原料的控股子公司川宁生物的股价暴涨，近一月以来，两家公司股价分别涨16.75%、12.22%。 川宁生物的官方公众号曾发文介绍麦角硫因。文中介绍称，麦角硫因有七大功效，在延缓衰老、改善睡眠、改善认知记 忆、美肤美颜、抗炎、糖尿病防治和心血管保护方面均有成效。 科伦药业售卖麦角硫因胶囊的渠道显示，该产品的售价为每瓶1499元/60粒，宣传标语为"2025最前沿抗衰成分麦角硫 因，科伦集团携日本百年企业匠心打造，清除自由基效果远超传统成分VC与辅酶Q10的10-30倍"。 结合文中提到的"董事长裸男展示肌肉"等措辞不难判断，假药此文所针对的正式科伦药业及其董事长此前的"带货"一 事。 饶毅还在文章中称："凡是没有 ...