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拥挤到疏散的力度
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-12 15:21
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of August 11, 2025, in the stock of credit bonds, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds are generally higher than other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds mostly declined, with the 1 - year - within private enterprise private non - perpetual varieties having a relatively larger decline, averaging 6.9BP; in real estate bonds, the yields of each variety basically declined, and the 1 - year - within varieties also had a larger average decline. In financial bonds, varieties with high valuation yields and spreads include leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - bonds. More than half of the yields of each variety of financial bonds declined compared with last week [3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information on Credit Bonds - As of August 11, 2025, in the stock of credit bonds, private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds have higher valuation yields and spreads. Non - financial non - real estate industrial bonds and real estate bonds' yields mostly declined compared with last week, and financial bonds' yields also had a downward trend in more than half of the varieties [3][8]. 3.2 City Investment Bonds 3.2.1 Public Offering City Investment Bonds - In public offering city investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are below 2.4%. Bonds with yields over 4.5% are in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou. Guangxi, Yunnan, Gansu and other regions also have high spreads. Compared with last week, the yields of public offering city investment bonds mainly declined, especially in key provinces. The varieties with large downward amplitudes include non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Inner Mongolia within 1 year, non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Gansu within 1 year, perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Chongqing from 1 - 2 years, and non - perpetual city investment bonds of prefecture - level cities in Hebei from 1 - 2 years [2][14]. 3.2.2 Private Offering City Investment Bonds - In private offering city investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 2.8%. Bonds with yields higher than 4% are in prefecture - level cities in Guizhou. Shaanxi, Yunnan, Gansu and other regions also have high spreads. Compared with last week, the yields of each variety in private offering city investment bonds mostly declined. The varieties with large downward amplitudes are non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Inner Mongolia from 2 - 3 years, non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Yunnan from 3 - 5 years, non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Liaoning within 1 year, and perpetual city investment bonds of prefecture - level cities in Shaanxi from 3 - 5 years, with corresponding declines of 10.7BP, 9.4BP, 9.0BP, and 8.8BP respectively [2][24]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds - The valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds are generally higher than other varieties. Non - financial non - real estate industrial bonds' yields mostly declined, with the 1 - year - within private enterprise private non - perpetual varieties having an average decline of 6.9BP. Real estate bonds' yields also basically declined, and the 1 - year - within varieties had a larger average decline [3][8]. 3.4 Financial Bonds - Financial bonds with high valuation yields and spreads include leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - bonds. More than half of the yields of each variety of financial bonds declined compared with last week. In leasing bonds, private varieties had more significant declines, with private perpetual bonds within 2 years declining by more than 6BP. In general commercial financial bonds, the interest rates of each variety fluctuated within a narrow range, not exceeding 1.5BP. In Tier 2 capital bonds, the varieties with more significant declines were mostly perpetual bonds of urban and rural commercial banks within 1 year, and the decline amplitude of perpetual bonds of urban commercial banks within 1 year was greater than 5BP. In addition, the yield of 2 - 3 - year private non - perpetual sub - bonds of securities companies increased by 2.9BP [4][8].
全球信用债利差触及2007年以来低点,高盛提示客户保持谨慎
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 03:58
Core Insights - Goldman Sachs credit strategists urge clients to hedge risks as global corporate bond yield spreads have tightened to the lowest level since 2007 [1] - Recent trade agreements between the US and several trading partners provide clarity on tariff issues, leading investors to overlook short-term economic growth weakness as long as recession risks are controlled [1] - Bloomberg index indicates that global investment-grade bond yield spreads narrowed to 79 basis points, the lowest level since July 2007, prior to the global financial crisis [1] Economic Context - The S&P 500 index reached a historical high this week, reflecting investor confidence despite tightening credit spreads [1] - Federal Reserve policymakers have not indicated an imminent rate cut, suggesting that more data is needed to ensure inflation risks do not persist [1]
10bp的利差调整足够吗?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-29 13:40
Group 1: Overall Situation of Credit Bonds - As of July 28, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds are generally higher than other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have been adjusted, and the yields of state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual real estate bonds have all increased [3][8]. - The varieties with high valuation yields and spreads in financial bonds include leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - debt. Compared with last week, the yields of various financial varieties have basically increased [4][8]. Group 2: Urban Investment Bonds Public Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are both below 2.4%. The urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% are in prefecture - level cities and district - level counties in Guizhou. The spreads in Guangxi, Yunnan, Gansu and other regions are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of public urban investment bonds have basically increased across the board, with the 2 - 3 - year varieties having a larger adjustment range [2][15]. - Specific regions' weighted average valuation yields and spreads are shown in Chart 5 and Chart 6, and the changes compared with last week are shown in Chart 7 [16][18][21]. Private Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of private urban investment bonds in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 2.9%. The varieties with yields higher than 4% appear in prefecture - level cities in Guizhou. The spreads in Shaanxi, Yunnan, Gansu and other regions are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of various private urban investment bond varieties have mainly increased. The varieties with relatively large yield increases are 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual bonds in Guangxi's district - level counties, 1 - 2 - year non - perpetual bonds in Ningxia's prefecture - level cities, 2 - 3 - year non - perpetual bonds in Guizhou's district - level counties, and 1 - 2 - year non - perpetual bonds of Guangxi provincial - level, with corresponding increases of 18.8BP, 15.6BP, 14.1BP and 12.7BP respectively [2][24]. - Specific regions' weighted average valuation yields and spreads are shown in Chart 8 and Chart 9 [25][28]. Group 3: Industrial Bonds Private Enterprise Industrial Bonds - The valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds are relatively high. Among them, the 2 - 3 - year private enterprise public perpetual varieties have a relatively larger upward range, with an average increase of 147.5BP compared with last week [3][13]. Real Estate Bonds - The yields of state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual real estate bonds have all increased. Among them, the yields of 1 - 2 - year private enterprise public non - perpetual real estate bonds have increased by 11.1BP [3][13]. Group 4: Financial Bonds Leasing Company Bonds - The 1 - 2 - year varieties of leasing bonds have a larger yield increase, with an average increase of about 10BP [4]. General Commercial Financial Bonds - The interest rates of all varieties of general commercial financial bonds have increased, with an increase range of 4 to 7BP [4]. Secondary Perpetual Bonds - The yield increase of rural commercial bank secondary capital bonds in secondary perpetual bonds mostly exceeds that of other bank varieties. The yield increase of 1 - year - within and 2 - 3 - year rural commercial bank secondary bonds is greater than 20BP [4]. Securities Company Bonds and Sub - debt - The yield increase of 3 - 5 - year private non - perpetual sub - debt of securities companies exceeds 10BP [4].
截至2025年7月21日,存量信用债估值及利差分布特征如下:
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-22 14:20
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of July 21, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds are generally higher than other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have all declined, with private enterprise bonds declining more than state - owned enterprise bonds, and short - term bonds being more favored than those over 1 year. Real estate bond yields mainly declined, with the yield of public non - perpetual bonds within 1 year dropping by more than 5BP. In financial bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools and leasing company bonds have relatively high valuation yields and spreads. Compared with last week, financial bond yields generally declined, with some adjustments in 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual varieties [2][3][8] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Overall Outstanding Credit Bonds - The valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds are higher than other varieties. Non - financial non - real estate industrial bond yields declined, with private enterprise bonds having a larger decline. Real estate bond yields mainly declined, and 1 - year - within public non - perpetual real estate bonds had a yield reduction of over 5BP. Financial bond yields generally declined, with certain adjustments in 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual varieties [2][3][8] 2. Urban Investment Bonds Public Urban Investment Bonds - In Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, the weighted average valuation yields are below 2.3%. Yields over 4.5% are in Guizhou's district - level. Yunnan, Gansu and other regions have high spreads. Compared with last week, yields generally declined, with an average decline of less than 2BP. Larger decline varieties include 2 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual bonds of Guangdong provincial level, 2 - 3 - year perpetual bonds of Shaanxi district - level, and 1 - 2 - year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan prefectural - level [2][15][16] Private Urban Investment Bonds - Coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian have weighted average valuation yields below 2.8%. Yields higher than 3.5% are in Shaanxi prefectural - level, Guizhou and Yunnan prefectural - and district - levels. Gansu, Heilongjiang and other regions have high spreads. Compared with last week, yields mainly declined. Larger decline varieties include 2 - 3 - year non - perpetual bonds of Tianjin provincial level, 1 - year - within non - perpetual bonds of Guizhou district - level, 3 - 5 - year perpetual bonds of Shaanxi prefectural - level, and 2 - 3 - year non - perpetual bonds of Heilongjiang prefectural - level, with declines of 10.5BP, 11.1BP, 21.8BP, and 13.5BP respectively [2][24][25] 3. Non - Financial Non - Real Estate Industrial Bonds - Yields declined compared with last week, with private enterprise bonds having a larger decline than state - owned enterprise bonds, and short - term bonds being more popular [3][8] 4. Real Estate Bonds - Yields mainly declined, and the yield of 1 - year - within public non - perpetual bonds dropped by more than 5BP [3][8] 5. Financial Bonds - Valuation yields and spreads are relatively high in urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools and leasing company bonds. Yields generally declined compared with last week. 1 - year - within private and 2 - 3 - year public perpetual leasing bonds had large declines, while 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual varieties had adjustments. Commercial financial bond yields declined within 4BP, and 3 - 5 - year urban and rural commercial bank varieties had callbacks. Short - duration bank sub - bonds performed better than medium - and long - term ones [4][8]
票息资产热度图谱:绝对收益低位分布
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-15 15:10
Group 1: Report's Core View - As of July 14, 2025, private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds generally have higher valuation yields and spreads. Compared with the previous week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds and real estate bonds have been adjusted, with varying degrees of increase in different varieties. In the financial bond sector, the yields of most varieties have also increased [2][3][8] Group 2: Summary by Bond Type Urban Investment Bonds - **Public Offering**: The weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are below 2.4%. Yields exceeding 4.5% are found in Guizhou's district - level bonds. Spreads in Guangxi, Yunnan, Gansu, etc., are relatively high. Compared with last week, yields mostly increased slightly, with 3 - 5 - year varieties having a larger adjustment [2][17] - **Private Placement**: The weighted average valuation yields in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 2.8%. Yields above 4% are in Guizhou's prefecture - level bonds. Spreads in Shaanxi, Yunnan, Gansu, etc., are relatively high. Yields of most varieties increased, with some having significant increases [2] Industrial Bonds - **Non - financial and Non - real estate (Private Enterprises)**: The 1 - year - within private non - perpetual varieties had an average yield increase of 9.7BP [3][8] - **Real Estate (State - owned Enterprises)**: The yields of private non - perpetual varieties all increased, with the 1 - year - within variety rising by 4.1BP [3][8] Financial Bonds - Valuation yields and spreads are high for leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - bonds. Yields of most financial bond varieties increased. For example, the yields of leasing bonds over 1 year increased by about 5BP, and the 2 - 3 - year urban commercial bank secondary capital bonds rose by 12.3BP [4][8] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Tables Overall Credit Bonds - **Weighted Average Valuation Yield**: Data shows the weighted average valuation yields of various bond types and maturities as of July 14, 2025 [10] - **Weighted Average Spread**: Displays the weighted average spreads of different bond types and maturities on July 14, 2025 [12] - **Change in Weighted Average Valuation Yield**: Compares the weighted average valuation yields of this week (July 14, 2025) and last week (July 7, 2025) [14] - **Change in Weighted Average Spread**: Compares the weighted average spreads of this week (July 14, 2025) and last week (July 7, 2025) [16] Public Offering Urban Investment Bonds - **Weighted Average Valuation Yield**: Presents the weighted average valuation yields of public offering urban investment bonds in different regions and administrative levels on July 14, 2025 [18] - **Weighted Average Spread**: Shows the weighted average spreads of public offering urban investment bonds in different regions and administrative levels on July 14, 2025 [20] - **Change in Weighted Average Valuation Yield**: Compares the weighted average valuation yields of public offering urban investment bonds in different regions and administrative levels between this week (July 14, 2025) and last week (July 7, 2025) [23] Private Placement Urban Investment Bonds - **Weighted Average Valuation Yield**: Displays the weighted average valuation yields of private placement urban investment bonds in different regions and administrative levels on July 14, 2025 [27] - **Weighted Average Spread**: Presents the weighted average spreads of private placement urban investment bonds in different regions and administrative levels on July 14, 2025 [30]
中枢1.9%的焦虑
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-08 15:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of July 7, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds and real estate bonds have generally declined, and the short - end varieties of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have a larger decline. Among them, the 1 - 2 - year public and 1 - year private non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises have declined by 19.6BP and 14.2BP respectively. The 2 - year private enterprise real estate bonds are more popular [3][8]. - In financial bonds, the varieties with high valuation yields and spreads include urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools and leasing company bonds. Compared with last week, the yields of financial bonds have generally declined. For example, the yields of 3 - 5 - year non - perpetual leasing bonds have declined by more than 8.5BP, and the yields of 1 - year joint - stock bank secondary perpetual bonds have declined by nearly 13BP [4][8]. - In public offering urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are both below 2.3%. The urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% are in prefecture - level cities and districts and counties of Guizhou. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu and other regions are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of public offering urban investment bonds have basically declined, and the average yield of varieties within 1 year has declined by 11.5BP [2][16]. - In private placement urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields of coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian are below 2.7%. The varieties with yields higher than 4% appear in prefecture - level cities of Guizhou and Shaanxi. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu, Heilongjiang and other regions are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of private placement urban investment bonds have mainly declined [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Outstanding Credit Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. The yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds and real estate bonds have generally declined, and the short - end varieties of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have a larger decline. The yields of financial bonds have also generally declined [3][4][8]. - The data in the table shows the weighted average valuation yields, spreads, and their changes compared with last week of different types of bonds (including urban investment bonds, non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds, real estate bonds, financial bonds, etc.) under different issuance methods (public offering and private placement) and different maturities [9][12][13]. 2. Public Offering Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are below 2.3%, while those in Guizhou's prefecture - level cities and districts and counties exceed 4.5%. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu and other regions are relatively high. The yields have basically declined compared with last week, and the 1 - year varieties have an average decline of 11.5BP. The varieties with a large decline in yields include 1 - year non - perpetual bonds of Jiangsu provincial level, 1 - year perpetual bonds of Hebei provincial level, etc. [2][16]. - The table shows the weighted average valuation yields, spreads, and their changes compared with last week of public offering urban investment bonds at different administrative levels in various regions [17][19][21]. 3. Private Placement Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian are below 2.7%. The varieties with yields higher than 4% appear in prefecture - level cities of Guizhou and Shaanxi. The spreads in Yunnan, Gansu, Heilongjiang and other regions are relatively high. The yields have mainly declined compared with last week, and the varieties with a large decline in yields include 1 - year perpetual bonds of Shandong district and county level, etc. [2]. - The table shows the weighted average valuation yields, spreads of private placement urban investment bonds at different administrative levels in various regions [25][28].
【立方债市通】上半年债市发债规模超27万亿元/周口投资集团拟发债36亿元/机构展望下半年债券市场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 12:46
Group 1: Bond Market Overview - The total bond issuance in the market reached 27.29 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly 24% [1] - Among the total, government bonds accounted for 16.93 trillion yuan, while credit bonds totaled 10.35 trillion yuan [1] - Specific figures include 7.88 trillion yuan in national bonds, 5.49 trillion yuan in local bonds, 55 billion yuan in central bank bills, and 349.68 billion yuan in policy financial bonds, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 35.58%, 57.18%, and 19.23% for national, local, and policy financial bonds [1] Group 2: ABS Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the ABS market saw 1,090 new projects with a total issuance of 974.9 billion yuan, marking a 27% increase year-on-year [3] - Credit ABS issuance decreased by 23%, with 102 new projects totaling 95.9 billion yuan [3] - The largest issuance came from non-performing loans, with 80 projects amounting to 36.2 billion yuan, followed by personal auto loans with 10 projects totaling 34.3 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Government Bond Issuance Plans - The Ministry of Finance plans to reissue 240 billion yuan of book-entry interest-bearing government bonds, including 109 billion yuan of 7-year bonds at a coupon rate of 1.79% and 131 billion yuan of 10-year bonds at a coupon rate of 1.67% [5] Group 4: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 1.31 trillion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to the maturity of 4.065 trillion yuan in reverse repos [7] Group 5: Local Government Bond Issuance - Hunan Province successfully issued its third batch of special bonds, totaling 9.856 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 23.854 billion yuan for land reserve special bonds, accounting for 44.56% of construction project funding [8] Group 6: Corporate Bond Issuance - Zhoukou Investment Group plans to issue 3.593 billion yuan in corporate bonds, which has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [9] - The Zhumadian Urban Construction Investment Group completed the issuance of 400 million yuan in corporate bonds with a 2.72% interest rate [9] - Tailong Pharmaceutical intends to register 800 million yuan in short-term financing bonds to replace bank loans and supplement working capital [10] Group 7: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The West Fixed Income team predicts that credit bond yields are likely to remain volatile, with the interest rate spread expected to reach its lowest point in the third quarter [20] - The Hua'an Fixed Income team anticipates that August may see a peak in the supply of interest rate bonds, with a significant reduction in supply pressure in July [20]
票息资产热度图谱:极致 2.0%的顾虑
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 11:19
Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Report's Core View - As of June 30, 2025, private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds in the outstanding credit bonds had higher overall valuation yields and spreads compared to other varieties. Compared with the previous week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds were mostly adjusted, with the 1 - 2 year private enterprise private non - perpetual variety having a relatively larger upward range, averaging 9.7BP. Among real estate bonds, the yields of state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual varieties increased more overall, with the 1 - 2 year variety rising 4.8BP. - In financial bonds, varieties with higher valuation yields and spreads included leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - bonds. Compared with the previous week, the yields of most financial varieties increased. Specifically, the yields of 1 - 2 year private perpetual and within 1 year public perpetual varieties in leasing bonds increased by more than 5BP; the interest rate increase of each variety of general commercial financial bonds was less than 2BP; among Tier 2 capital bonds, the adjustment range of urban and rural commercial bank varieties was larger, with the yield of 2 - 3 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds increasing by 9.8BP, but the yield of 3 - 5 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds decreasing by more than 12BP; in addition, the yield increase of each maturity variety in securities company bonds and sub - bonds was controlled within 5BP. - For urban investment bonds, in public urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces were both below 2.4%; urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% appeared in prefecture - level and district - county levels in Guizhou. In private urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian were below 2.8%; varieties with yields higher than 4% appeared in prefecture - level cities in Guizhou, Shaanxi, and Yunnan. Compared with the previous week, the yields of most public urban investment bonds increased slightly, and the yields of most varieties in private urban investment bonds also increased [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Outstanding Credit Bonds - **Valuation Yields and Spreads**: Private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds had higher overall valuation yields and spreads. The valuation yields and spreads of leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - bonds in financial bonds were relatively high [2][3][4]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: Non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds had yield adjustments, with the 1 - 2 year private enterprise private non - perpetual variety having an average increase of 9.7BP. Among real estate bonds, the 1 - 2 year state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual variety increased by 4.8BP. Most financial varieties saw yield increases, with specific increases varying by bond type [3][4]. Urban Investment Bonds Public Urban Investment Bonds - **Valuation Yields**: The weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were below 2.4%, while yields exceeding 4.5% were in Guizhou's prefecture - level and district - county levels. Other regions like Guangxi, Yunnan, and Gansu had relatively high spreads [2]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: Yields mostly increased slightly. Larger - increase varieties included 2 - 3 year non - perpetual bonds of Sichuan provincial level, 3 - 5 year non - perpetual bonds of Anhui provincial level, within 1 year non - perpetual bonds of Guizhou prefecture - level cities, and within 1 year perpetual bonds of Hebei provincial level [2]. Private Urban Investment Bonds - **Valuation Yields**: Coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian had weighted average valuation yields below 2.8%. Yields higher than 4% were in prefecture - level cities in Guizhou, Shaanxi, and Yunnan. Regions like Heilongjiang, Qinghai, and Gansu had relatively high spreads [2]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: Yields of most varieties increased. The varieties with larger upward ranges were 3 - 5 year non - perpetual bonds of Guangxi prefecture - level cities (9.9BP), 1 - 2 year non - perpetual bonds of Shaanxi district - county levels (9.7BP), 1 - 2 year non - perpetual bonds of Jilin prefecture - level cities (8.0BP), and 3 - 5 year non - perpetual bonds of Liaoning prefecture - level cities (7.7BP) [2]. Industrial Bonds - **Non - financial and Non - real estate Industrial Bonds (State - owned Enterprises)**: The yields of private and public bonds were mostly adjusted compared to the previous week, with different adjustment ranges for different maturities [12]. - **Non - financial and Non - real estate Industrial Bonds (Private Enterprises)**: The 1 - 2 year private non - perpetual variety had a relatively large upward range in yield, averaging 9.7BP [3]. - **Real Estate Bonds (State - owned Enterprises)**: The yields of private non - perpetual varieties increased more overall, with the 1 - 2 year variety rising 4.8BP [3]. - **Real Estate Bonds (Private Enterprises)**: No information on private bonds; for public bonds, some maturity varieties had yield decreases [12]. Financial Bonds - **Leasing Company Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 2 year private perpetual and within 1 year public perpetual varieties increased by more than 5BP [4]. - **General Commercial Financial Bonds**: The interest rate increase of each variety was less than 2BP [4]. - **Tier 2 Capital Bonds**: Among urban and rural commercial bank varieties, the 2 - 3 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds' yield increased by 9.8BP, while the 3 - 5 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds' yield decreased by more than 12BP [4]. - **Securities Company Bonds and Sub - bonds**: The yield increase of each maturity variety was controlled within 5BP [4].
2.3%以上的意外拉久期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-17 14:28
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As of June 16, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds mostly declined, while those of some bonds such as private perpetual bonds of state - owned enterprises within 1 year and 3 - 5 years increased. The yields of real estate bonds also mainly declined, especially those of private public non - perpetual bonds within 1 - 2 years, with a yield reduction of more than 4.5BP. In financial bonds, the varieties with higher valuation yields and spreads are leasing company bonds and capital supplementary tools of urban and rural commercial banks. More than half of the yields of financial bonds declined compared with last week [3][8]. - In public urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are both below 2.4%. The urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% are in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou. The spreads in other regions such as Yunnan and Gansu are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of public urban investment bonds generally declined, with an average decline of 3.7BP for 3 - 5 - year varieties [2][14]. - In private urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 2.8%. The varieties with yields higher than 4% appear in prefecture - level areas of Guizhou and Shaanxi, and prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Yunnan. The spreads in other areas such as Gansu and Heilongjiang are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of private urban investment bonds basically declined, with an average decline of 3BP and 5BP for 2 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year varieties respectively [2][23]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chart 1: Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Outstanding Credit Bonds (as of June 16, unit: %) - Displays the weighted average valuation yields of different bond types (such as urban investment bonds, non - financial non - real estate industrial bonds, real estate bonds, etc.) in different time periods (1 year or less, 1 - 2 years, 2 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years) and different issuance methods (private or public) [10]. Chart 2: Weighted Average Spread of Outstanding Credit Bonds (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Presents the weighted average spreads of different bond types in different time periods and issuance methods, with the calculation benchmark being the same - term government - developed bonds [11]. Chart 3: Change in Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Outstanding Credit Bonds Compared with Last Week (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Shows the changes in the weighted average valuation yields of different bond types compared with last week, calculated as (this week's weighted average valuation yield - last week's weighted average valuation yield) * 100 [12]. Chart 4: Change in Weighted Average Spread of Outstanding Credit Bonds Compared with Last Week (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Illustrates the changes in the weighted average spreads of different bond types compared with last week, calculated as this week's weighted average spread - last week's weighted average spread [13]. Chart 5: Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Public Urban Investment Bonds (as of June 16, unit: %) - Provides the weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in different administrative levels (provincial, prefecture - level, district - county - level) of various provinces [15]. Chart 6: Weighted Average Spread of Public Urban Investment Bonds (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Displays the weighted average spreads of public urban investment bonds in different administrative levels of various provinces, with the calculation benchmark being the same - term government - developed bonds [17]. Chart 7: Change in Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Public Urban Investment Bonds Compared with Last Week (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Shows the changes in the weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in different administrative levels of various provinces compared with last week [20]. Chart 8: Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Private Urban Investment Bonds (as of June 16, unit: %) - Presents the weighted average valuation yields of private urban investment bonds in different administrative levels of various provinces [24]. Chart 9: Weighted Average Spread of Private Urban Investment Bonds (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Displays the weighted average spreads of private urban investment bonds in different administrative levels of various provinces, with the calculation benchmark being the same - term government - developed bonds [26].
票息资产热度图谱:2.3%以上的下沉路径
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-20 14:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of May 19, 2025, private enterprise industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds had higher overall valuation yields and spreads compared to other varieties. Compared with the previous week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds generally declined, with the 1 - 2 year private enterprise public and state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual bonds declining by 9bp and 5.9bp respectively, and the yields of most other varieties decreasing within 5bp. The yields of real estate bonds also mainly declined, especially the state - owned enterprise public non - perpetual bonds within 1 year and 1 - 2 years, which both saw a reduction of over 10bp. Among financial bonds, the varieties with high valuation yields and spreads were leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools. More than half of the financial bond yields declined compared to the previous week. Specifically, leasing bonds were the better - performing bonds among financial bonds, with the yields of 2 - 3 year private perpetual and non - perpetual bonds declining by 9.1bp and 4.9bp respectively. The performance of commercial financial bonds varied by term, with the yields of varieties within 1 year all decreasing, while most varieties over 1 year had varying degrees of adjustment, among which the 1 - 2 year large - bank commercial financial bonds had the largest adjustment range. Bank sub - bonds were slightly weak, with the yields of 3 - 5 year perpetual bonds consistently declining, especially the urban and rural commercial bank varieties, which declined by more than 3.5bp, and the 2 - year - within national and joint - stock bank Tier 2 perpetual bonds generally rebounded. In addition, the 1 - 2 year and 2 - 3 year private non - perpetual varieties of securities company bonds received some attention [3][4][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Outstanding Credit Bonds - As of May 19, 2025, private enterprise industrial bonds had higher overall valuation yields and spreads. Compared with the previous week, non - financial and non - real estate industrial bond yields generally declined, and real estate bond yields also mainly declined. Financial bond yields had more than half declining, with leasing bonds performing well, commercial financial bonds showing term - based differentiation, bank sub - bonds being slightly weak, and some securities company bond varieties attracting attention [3][4][8]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds 3.2.1 Public Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces were below 2.5%. Bonds with yields over 4.5% were in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou. Yunnan, Gansu and other regions also had high spreads. Compared with the previous week, the yields basically declined, with the 1 - 2 year varieties having an average decline of 5.8bp. The varieties with larger yield declines included 1 - 2 year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan prefecture - level cities, 2 - 3 year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan prefecture - level cities, 1 - 2 year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan district - counties, and non - perpetual bonds of Gansu prefecture - level cities within 1 year [2][14]. 3.2.2 Private Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian were below 3%. Varieties with yields higher than 4% were in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou and Yunnan, and prefecture - level areas of Shaanxi. Gansu, Liaoning, Heilongjiang and other regions also had high spreads. Compared with the previous week, the yields mainly declined. The varieties with larger yield declines included 2 - 3 year perpetual bonds of Shaanxi district - counties, 2 - 3 year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan prefecture - level cities, non - perpetual bonds of Shanxi district - counties within 1 year, and 1 - 2 year non - perpetual urban investment bonds of Gansu prefecture - level cities [2]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds - Private enterprise industrial bonds had higher valuation yields and spreads. Non - financial and non - real estate industrial bond yields generally declined, with 1 - 2 year private enterprise public and state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual bonds declining by 9bp and 5.9bp respectively, and most other varieties having yield declines within 5bp. Real estate bond yields also mainly declined, especially state - owned enterprise public non - perpetual bonds within 1 year and 1 - 2 years, which had a reduction of over 10bp [3][8]. 3.4 Financial Bonds - Leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools had high valuation yields and spreads. More than half of the financial bond yields declined. Leasing bonds performed well, with 2 - 3 year private perpetual and non - perpetual bonds having yield declines of 9.1bp and 4.9bp respectively. Commercial financial bonds showed term - based differentiation, bank sub - bonds were slightly weak, and some securities company bond varieties received attention [4][8].