Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1][9] Core Insights - The military industry has expanded significantly, now encompassing civil aviation, low-altitude economy, information security, military trade, commercial aerospace, and civil shipping, leading to a substantial increase in market space and potential ceiling [5] - The military industry is experiencing a robust market performance, with the military index reaching a ten-year high of 11597.90, reflecting a 130.27% increase [6] - The report highlights the importance of the "Big Military" concept, which opens up higher ceilings for the industry beyond traditional military needs [5] Summary by Sections - **Market Performance**: The military index has shown strong growth, with a historical high in weekly trading volume, indicating a bullish market sentiment [6][8] - **Future Outlook**: The report suggests that the military industry will continue to adapt to changes in production relationships and competitive landscapes, leading to the emergence of more dynamic industry players [5] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report identifies several key areas for investment, including low-altitude economy, military trade, and commercial aerospace, which are expected to drive future growth [5][6]

编辑：何颖曦 中国经济周刊-经济网讯 截至收盘，上证指数报4082.98点，下跌0.07%，成交额11831.89亿元；深 证成指报13959.48点，下跌0.51%，成交额16170.77亿元；创业板指报3302.31点，下跌0.82%，成交额 7503.35亿元。 盘面上看，保险、券商、银行板块集体下挫，军工板块强势，地产、钢铁、医药、半导体等板块上 扬，工业软件、商业航天、军贸概念等活跃。 ...

东莞证券表示，当前外部环境受益于弱美元趋势，内部环境受益于政策积极发力预期，2026年开年市场 量能连续放量，市场情绪较强，大盘有望继续逐光而行，建议关注AI科技方向（人脑工程、算力工 程、人形机器人等），涨价方向（存储芯片、有色稀土等）以及大金融板块。关注即将发布的中国 CPI、美国非农就业数据以及美国最高法院就关税问题作出的裁决。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 盘面上看，保险、券商、银行板块集体下挫，军工板块强势，地产、钢铁、医药、半导体等板块上扬， 工业软件、商业航天、军贸概念等活跃。 8日，沪指盘中窄幅震荡，创业板指弱势下探，科创50、北证50指数强势上扬，全A超3700股飘红。 截至收盘，沪指微跌0.07%报4082.98点，深证成指跌0.51%，创业板指跌0.82%，科创50指数涨0.82%， 沪深北三市合计成交约2.83万亿元。 ...

调研基本情况 2026年1月5日14点00分，陕西中天火箭技术股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）在公司三楼会议室接待了 特定对象调研。参与本次调研的机构包括新华资产（姜新月、刘婷）、中邮资管（孟东晖），公司副总 经理/董事会秘书宁星华、证券事务部部长许青山出席并与机构投资者进行交流。 调研核心内容解读 小型制导火箭：系列化布局军贸市场，毛利率35%-40% 针对机构关注的小型制导火箭产品情况，公司介绍，该业务围绕"系列化、多平台化"发展思路，以客户 需求为牵引，在基本型基础上开发了破甲型、增强型等多款系列化产品，可满足不同客户的差异化需 求。 从销售及盈利来看，目前小型制导火箭主要为军贸产品，定价通过协商方式确定，产品毛利率在 35%-40%区间浮动。 增雨防雹业务：市占率超50%，毛利率波动与产品结构相关 在商业航天领域，公司重点提及增雨防雹火箭及其配套装备业务。该业务多年来市场占有率超过50%， 处于行业第一位置，属于减灾防灾领域，各省、市、气象部门每年相关经费投入较为稳定。 关于产品单价及毛利率波动问题，公司表示，增雨防雹火箭弹单价稳定，主要产品单价约3000元。而业 务板块毛利率波动主要与销售产品结构相 ...

国防军工行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251230 摘要 2026 年投资策略聚焦"转型增长的信心"，强调自下而上精选个股， 关注企业第一成长曲线（传统主业）和第二成长曲线（新兴方向），尤 其关注通过长期技术积累或业务布局开拓的高端民用应用场景。 短期和中期内，军转民和军贸是两大潜力赛道，商业航天领域因其市值 高度、持续性及催化剂等因素，发展前景明确，SpaceX 的 IPO 估值预 期为国内相关标的提供了参考。 商业航天发展前景可从市值高度（对标 SpaceX）、持续性（中美太空 算力及卫星互联网建设）和催化剂（可回收火箭成功、两会政策支持、 公司 IPO）三个维度评估。 军工行业需求传导路径为战略牵引规划、规划牵引资源配置及年度计划 执行，国防与部队现代化建设需求旺盛且有韧性，构成行业结构性机会 及整体增长信心的基础。 2026 年商业航天领域催化因素包括国网、GW 星座成功组网，千帆星 座建设进展，以及国产发动机和国产大飞机从暗线转向明线，成为新的 主题催化点。 Q&A 2025 年军工行业的主要投资方向和策略是什么？ 2025 年，军工行业的投资策略可以分为三个主要赛道：内装、军贸和军转民。 内装 ...

此外，军工行业进入长期景气上行通道，把握新质战斗力及军贸两大主线。建军百年目标迫在眉睫，行 业将进入新一轮上升周期。 方正证券研究指出，内需方面，前期定型产品批产叠加新型号"十五五"转阶段批产，行业订单有望持续 下达。外贸方面，近年来我国军贸完成从"性价比替代"转向"技术标杆"、从"单品出口"到"体系解决方 案+服务生态"、从"市场参与者"升级为"规则制定者"的三重跃迁，当前全球新一轮军备竞赛背景下我国 军贸市场有望迎来历史机遇。在内需外贸双轮强驱动下，我国军工行业有望进入长期景气通道。 消息面上，近日，国家国防科工局党组理论学习中心组召开扩大会议，会议提出，要促进商业航天发 展，推动航天产业化。此前，12月26日上交所发布《商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准指引》， 标志着商业火箭企业登陆资本市场的通道正式打通、标准全面明确。 开源证券表示，商业火箭企业科创板IPO标准发布表明国家对商业航天领域的重点支持，资本加持将加 速产业发展。火箭产业链受益于航天动力、西部材料等企业的技术积累；卫星产业链及太空算力领域， 中科星图、航天宏图等企业凭借数据处理能力优势将获得发展机遇。商业航天产业链整体受益于政策支 持与 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [26]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector has shown resilience, with the Shenwan Defense Military Index rising by 6% last week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 [1][5]. - The report suggests that the military sector is entering a recovery phase, driven by accelerated order deliveries and improved performance expectations for the fourth quarter [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to enhance the quality and quantity of military capabilities, indicating a new growth cycle for the industry [4]. - There is a significant investment opportunity in the military sector due to increasing geopolitical uncertainties and rising demand for consumable military equipment [4]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on new combat equipment, consumable weapons, military trade, and military intelligence as key investment areas [4]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense Military Index outperformed the market, with a 6% increase, ranking second among 31 major industry sectors [5]. - The average increase for the civilian-military integration index was 8.45%, indicating strong performance in this segment [5]. - Top-performing stocks in the defense sector included Shenjian Co. (61.2%), Aerospace Engineering (43.39%), and China Satellite (36.24%) [12]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Defense Military Index is 88.65, indicating it is in the upper range historically, suggesting potential for further growth [13][19]. - The report notes a divergence in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [13][19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a 12-month target price of 114 yuan [5][8]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transitioned from police equipment to military models, focusing on special robots and intelligent perception as its two main businesses. It has developed various special robots for reconnaissance, bomb disposal, and nuclear detection, winning multiple bids [2][3]. - The company is positioned as a core supplier for intelligent grouping of manned and unmanned equipment, enhancing situational awareness and operational effectiveness in military applications [3][4]. - The company has strategically entered the overseas market, benefiting from the rapid growth of the drone export market, with monthly export values increasing from 10-20 billion yuan to 30-40 billion yuan [4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 0.21 billion yuan, 0.62 billion yuan, and 1.53 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with growth rates of turning profitable, 202%, and 146% respectively [5]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 0.225 billion yuan in 2023 to 0.980 billion yuan in 2027, with a significant recovery anticipated in 2025 [6][22]. Business Analysis - The company has been deeply engaged in the "intelligent perception + robotics" sector for over a decade, with a focus on military trade and technology reserves since 2016 [15][19]. - The company has developed a range of special robots and intelligent perception devices, with a strong market presence and competitive edge in the domestic and international markets [36][40]. - The company is actively expanding into simulation and intelligent manufacturing sectors, which are expected to contribute to balanced revenue streams [25][27]. Market Position - The global special robot market is projected to grow from 5.9 billion USD in 2020 to 13.3 billion USD in 2025, with the Chinese market expected to increase from 12.1 billion yuan to 29.9 billion yuan in the same period [40][41]. - The company is recognized as a key player in the intelligent perception equipment sector, with capabilities in developing complex optical reconnaissance devices and a comprehensive product range [42][43].

Core Insights - The report identifies the main investment themes for the defense and aerospace industry in 2025 as internal equipment, military trade, and military-civilian integration, with a focus on the second growth curve as a key selection criterion for stocks [2][5][36] - For 2026, military-civilian integration and military trade are expected to remain the primary investment lines, supported by stable growth in defense spending and policy guidance [2][5] Industry Overview - The report outlines a deep review of the defense industry, highlighting that the internal equipment market, military trade, and military-civilian integration emerged as the three main investment directions in 2025 [5][21] - The investment framework has evolved from focusing solely on internal equipment to incorporating military trade and military-civilian integration, reflecting a more comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics [5][21] Policy Analysis and Internal Equipment Outlook - The report emphasizes that the integration of mechanization, information technology, and intelligence will drive future growth in internal equipment, with specific focus areas including information support forces, cyber warfare units, military aerospace, and rocket forces [6][41][46] - Recent U.S. defense policy changes, which reduced the number of key technology areas from 14 to 6, align closely with China's focus on new quality and new domain developments [6][41] Investment Strategy for 2026 - The report recommends a bottom-up approach to stock selection, emphasizing the importance of identifying stocks that excel in the second growth curve, particularly in military trade and military-civilian integration [7][36] - Specific companies are highlighted as key investment targets, including 中航沈飞 (AVIC), 广东宏大 (Guangdong Hongda), and 西部超导 (West Superconductor), which are positioned to benefit from trends in military trade and civilian applications [22][33][36] Key Investment Areas - The report identifies several promising sectors within the defense industry, including special chips, quartz electronic fabrics, aerospace electronics, high-performance power supplies, and military aviation engines, each with unique growth drivers [22][33][36] - The military trade sector is expected to see a shift towards high-end equipment exports, with 中航沈飞 (AVIC) and 广东宏大 (Guangdong Hongda) as core players [22][36] Conclusion - The report concludes that the second growth curve represents a critical opportunity for investors, with military trade and military-civilian integration likely to be the main growth drivers in the coming years [36][41]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "globalization and AI+" in advancing high-quality development in the defense and military industry, highlighting the need for modernization and efficiency improvements in military systems [5][30][34] - The investment strategy focuses on balancing value and growth, with traditional sectors entering an S-curve evolution phase while new demands and replacements coexist [5][30] Section Summaries 1. Current Development Stage from the S-Curve Perspective - The defense and military industry is in a growth phase, with traditional sectors experiencing rapid development during the previous five-year plan, but not yet entering a slowdown [16][26] - The S-curve model indicates that the industry lifecycle includes multiple product lifecycles, with the current focus on extending product lifespans through innovation [23][24] 2. S-Curve Cycle Expansion - Global military trade remains robust, emphasizing the importance of lifecycle management from equipment to services [9][18] - The report anticipates that the demand for large aircraft and low-altitude economic activities will accelerate due to supportive policies [9][28] 3. S-Curve Cycle Evolution - Supply chain reforms are crucial for reducing costs and complexity, enhancing the focus on maintenance and repair services [9][33] - The integration of unmanned systems and intelligent technologies is expected to drive significant advancements in military capabilities [9][51] 4. New Cycle of the S-Curve: Emerging Industries - The report identifies commercial aerospace, AI, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum information, and deep-sea technology as key areas for future growth [9][57][65] - The acceleration of technological advancements and policy support is expected to unlock new market opportunities in these sectors [9][58] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that align with the evolving S-curve, particularly those involved in supply chain reform, maintenance, and unmanned systems [5][30] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include 航发动力, 中航高科, and 国睿科技, among others, which are positioned to benefit from these trends [6][9]