强军胜战——国防科技行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 20250709 摘要 十四五期间军工板块 EPS 增长是核心驱动力，白马公司业绩兑现推动股 价上涨，多轮主题投资提供参与机会。航空赛道关注新型号、后市场和 军转民等细分领域。 新装备领域，高超音速、低成本武器及火炸药是补短板重点。军贸方面， 央国企支持力度加大，新一代装备如运 20、直 20、歼 35A 等出口潜力 巨大，军贸是重要增长点。 主题投资如低空经济、商业航天、深海科技和可控核聚变等，具备中长 期高增长潜力。2024 年 9 月后，事件催化带来超额收益，板块进入新 增长阶段。 军工板块成长空间广阔，内需方面，中国军费占 GDP 比重低于欧美，增 长空间 20%-100%；外需方面，军贸占比提升空间超 60%；军转民方 面，大飞机产业链市场潜力巨大。 投资策略上，应以盈利驱动的价值投资为主，甄选优质白马股。航空赛 道关注新型号列装、后市场需求及军转民潜力，C919 国产替代空间广 阔。 如何看待十四五期间军工板块的表现？ 十四五期间，军工板块实现了绝对正收益，核心原因是 EPS 增长。许多白马公 司业绩兑现良好，推动股价上涨。此外，多轮主题投资机 ...

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 军贸行业专题报告： 军贸"高端化和体系化"提升行业发展空间，核心军工资产估值有望重塑 2 0 2 5 . 7 . 7 分析师：陈鼎如 执业证书编号：S0740521080001 Email：chendr01@zts.com.cn 分析师：马梦泽 执业证书编号：S0740523060003 Email：mamz@zts.com.cn 1 核心观点 ◆ 商业模式："本土+海外"双轮驱动有效对冲国内需求波动，体系化解决方案&全周期运维管理打开增长空间 2 ➢ 海外业务为军工企业提供较高毛利贡献，拉长周期看军贸业务能够有效平衡内需波动、突破单一市场约束。1）在2009年后的军 费低增速时期，美国军贸转让量指标近15年CAGR保持4.3%增速，海外业务增长强化本土军工企业穿越周期能力。2）F-35军贸 在手订单量占比超30%，且单机价格显著高于当期美军采购单价，高附加值军贸产品成为盈利能力重要支撑。 ➢ 军贸订单有助于装备产量提升，强化企业规模效应及按时交付率。1）F-35A是该项目中1/2/3级合作伙伴以及对外军售 ...

Group 1 - Airbus secured orders worth $21 billion at the Paris Air Show, while Boeing did not disclose its sales figures [2] - Boeing dominates the global cargo aircraft market, particularly in China, despite facing challenges in the commercial passenger aircraft sector due to safety incidents [2] - China's focus on developing large passenger aircraft has led to a lack of attention on cargo aircraft, resulting in limited models and lower payload capacities for domestic cargo planes [2] Group 2 - Boeing's cargo aircraft shortage is emphasized, with estimates indicating a gap of approximately 60 aircraft needed to meet the projected fleet capacity demand by 2027 [4] - The largest cargo aircraft in China, the Y-20, has a maximum takeoff weight of 220 tons and a payload capacity of 66 tons, while Boeing's 747-8F has a maximum payload capacity of 133 tons [4] - The performance of Chinese cargo aircraft is hindered by insufficient engine power, necessitating significant improvements in aviation engine technology to compete with Boeing [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced slight adjustments on June 17, with the military industry sector showing significant movements, particularly the aerospace ETF (159227) which briefly turned positive, highlighting stocks like Zhongbing Hongjian, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, Guobo Electronics, and Great Wall Military [1] - The 55th Paris Air Show, held from June 16 to 22, showcased China's aviation industry, featuring military aircraft such as the J-20, J-35A, J-10CE, Y-20, Z-20, and Z-10ME, indicating a strong ambition for transformation from a technology follower to a leader in the field, which may boost China's military trade [1] - The aerospace ETF (159227) closely tracks the National Aerospace Index, leading in scale among similar indices, with the defense and military industry accounting for 96.2% of the index, indicating a higher concentration in aerospace and defense equipment compared to other indices [1] Group 2 - According to AVIC Securities, themes such as low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, large aircraft, and military intelligence have been highly active since the beginning of the year, suggesting that these new military domains will continue to deepen and evolve [2] - The military industry's fundamentals are expected to improve continuously, with active themes and performance boosts likely to drive the overall military market in the near future [2]

伊以战火映军贸曙光， 国产巨翼启全球翱翔 20250616 摘要 中东紧张局势升级，伊朗核设施遇袭，可能引发地区军贸需求增长，为 中国军贸高端化发展带来机遇。中国运 20 运输机因其产能优势，有望 受益于此轮军贸扩张。 中航西飞作为国产大飞机主机厂，其运 20 运输机在全球同级别机型中 具备稀缺产能，且可改装为特种作战飞机，面临价值重估，值得关注。 菲利华在高端石英玻璃材料领域具有领先地位，其石英玻璃纤维电子布 在高速 PCB 板覆铜板中应用前景广阔，且在半导体加工环节实现国产替 代，支撑高端半导体自主可控。 军工行业预计八九月份将迎来行情上升期，基于元器件订单数据趋势判 断，建议超配弹药消耗相关标的，如航天电器、菲利华、新雷能等，以 及平台型元器件企业。 中国运 20 运输机在全球同级别机型中具备产能优势，军贸产品定价和 盈利能力高于国内装备建设，将引领中国稀缺产能价值重估，利好中航 沈飞、中航成飞等企业。 Q&A 伊以冲突对全球军贸市场可能产生哪些影响？ 中东地区长期以来是全球最大的军贸进口地区，许多涉事国家不具备完整的国 防科技工业能力，因此武器的大量消耗必然牵引全球军贸市场进入新一轮扩张 景气周期。特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements in China's aircraft strength research and verification over the past 60 years, emphasizing its critical role in ensuring the safety and performance of domestic aircraft like the C919 and AG600 [3][4][8]. Group 1: Development History - The strength research institute was established during the "Third Line Construction" period in 1964, marking a pivotal shift in China's aviation industry from repair to manufacturing and design [4][6]. - The first full-scale destruction test of the H-6 aircraft in 1968 demonstrated China's capability for large aircraft strength verification, marking a new phase in the country's aviation strength research [4][6]. - Over the past six decades, the institute has evolved from a single focus on strength testing to a multi-faceted approach that includes manuals, guidelines, standards, and tools [8]. Group 2: Testing Capabilities - The institute has developed a "building block" testing capability system that includes full-scale static, fatigue, and ground vibration tests, ensuring comprehensive validation of aircraft structures [6][7]. - It has completed hundreds of full-scale tests and thousands of large component tests, supporting the development of key aircraft such as the J-20, Y-20, C919, and AG600 [8]. Group 3: Climate Environment Laboratory - After 15 years of research, the institute established a climate environment laboratory that is internationally leading, capable of simulating extreme weather conditions for aircraft testing [9][10]. - This laboratory can recreate 12 types of extreme climate conditions, significantly enhancing the testing capabilities for aircraft adaptability [10][11]. Group 4: Software Development - The institute has developed the SABRE structural analysis software system, which supports various engineering and structural strength needs, breaking the reliance on foreign software [12]. - This software has been applied across multiple industries and has resolved numerous challenges in aircraft development [12]. Group 5: AG600 Aircraft Development - The AG600 amphibious aircraft, designed for both land and water operations, received its type certificate from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, marking a significant achievement in its development [16][19]. - The strength institute played a crucial role in verifying the structural integrity of the AG600, addressing unique challenges posed by its dual-environment functionality [19][20].