丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年半年报，实现收入 28.3 亿元（同比+38.6%），实现归属净利润 9.9 亿元（同 比+159.2%），实现归属扣非净利润 9.9 亿元（同比+163.6%）。其中 Q2 单季度实现收入 16.2 亿元（同比+49.4%，环比+33.3%），归属净利润 5.9 亿元（同比+159.0%，环比+48.3%），实 现归属扣非净利润 5.9 亿元（同比+168.6%，环比+49.2%）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525040004 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 马太 王呈 公司研究丨点评报告丨三美股份（603379.SH） [Table_Title] 业绩创新高，制冷剂价格稳步上行 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 三美股份（603379.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 业绩创新高，制冷剂价格稳步上行 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2025 年半年 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the basic chemical industry, particularly for refrigerants and glyphosate, which are experiencing high demand and price increases [1][5]. Core Insights - The glyphosate market is showing strong demand, with prices rising to 26,699 CNY/ton, an increase of 300 CNY/ton from the previous week, while the profit margin has also improved [3][17]. - Refrigerant prices, particularly for R134a and R32, have increased due to steady demand driven by high summer temperatures and supply constraints from quota policies [4][27]. - The polyester filament and viscose staple fiber markets are witnessing slight price rebounds as manufacturers reduce production to restore profitability [4][29]. Summary by Sections (1) Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Glyphosate prices have risen to 26,699 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 300 CNY/ton, while production has decreased by 16.24% to 0.7 million tons [3][17]. - Prices for polyester filament (POY, FDY, DTY) have increased slightly, with POY averaging 6,775 CNY/ton, up 125 CNY/ton [4][29]. (2) Polyurethane: MDI and TDI Price Trends - MDI prices have decreased due to weak demand from end-users, with the average price for polymer MDI in South China at 15,700 CNY/ton, down 1.88% [15]. - TDI prices have also dropped, with the average price in East China at 16,250 CNY/ton, down 2.99% [15]. (3) Agricultural Chemicals: Glyphosate Price Increase - Glyphosate prices continue to rise, supported by good downstream demand and tight supply, with a current price of 26,699 CNY/ton [17]. - The profit margin for glyphosate has increased to 3,725.1 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 317.9 CNY/ton from the previous week [17]. (4) Fluorochemicals: Refrigerant Price Increases - Prices for R134a and R32 have increased due to strong seasonal demand, with R134a at 51,000 CNY/ton and R32 at 57,500 CNY/ton [27]. - The supply of refrigerants is constrained by quota policies, leading to a tight market situation [27]. (5) Tire Industry: Raw Material Price Trends - Prices for natural rubber and synthetic rubber have shown slight increases, with natural rubber at 15,017 CNY/ton, up 1.24% [29]. - The prices of accelerators and anti-aging agents have also increased, indicating a positive trend in the tire industry [29].

Group 1: Market Performance - The fluorochemical sector showed steady performance in July, with the fluorochemical index rising by 6.29%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.32 percentage points [1] - As of the end of July, the fluorochemical index was at 1471.59 points, which is an increase of 6.29% compared to the end of June [1] - The chemical price indices reported by Guosen Securities indicated a slight decrease in the fluorochemical price index by 2.76% and an increase in the refrigerant price index by 2.24% as of July 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Refrigerant Prices - Retail prices for the main refrigerant R32 continued to rise, with R227ea prices increasing rapidly to 73,000 yuan/ton due to demand from the firefighting sector [2] - Price forecasts for R32 are expected to stabilize with average prices projected at 56,000 yuan in August, 57,000 yuan in September, and 58,000 yuan in October [2] - The market anticipates an increase in refrigerant demand with the approach of the "Golden September and Silver October" period and the new cooling year [2] Group 3: Air Conditioning Production - Air conditioning production has been adjusted upwards due to high summer temperatures, with the total production for August expected to be 6.735 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9% [5] - The cumulative export of air conditioners from January to June reached 41.08 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [5] - The third batch of 69 billion yuan for the old-for-new program has been allocated, providing support for the industry [4] Group 4: Company Developments - Companies such as Dongyangguang, Wengfu Group, and others have reported profit growth in their mid-year financial announcements [6] - The fluorine polymer and supporting projects by Dongyangguang have completed acceptance public announcements, indicating ongoing expansion in the sector [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 1.97 to 2.13 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 136% to 155% [7]. - The price of refrigerants continues to rise significantly, with the average sales price in Q2 2025 increasing by 65% year-on-year [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the upward trend in refrigerant prices due to its leading production quotas for second and third-generation refrigerants [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 24.46 billion yuan in 2024 to 33.82 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.6% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 1.96 billion yuan in 2024 to 7.57 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 30% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.73 yuan in 2024 to 2.80 yuan in 2027 [3]. Market Data - As of July 9, 2025, the closing price of the stock was 27.55 yuan, with a market capitalization of 74.38 billion yuan [4]. - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 for 2025, which is projected to decrease to 10 by 2027 [3][4]. Segment Performance - The sales volume of fluorinated refrigerants in Q2 2025 was 84,800 tons, with a significant increase in sales price [7]. - The company’s fluorinated polymer materials and fine chemicals segments are showing signs of recovery, with sales volumes increasing by 5% and 12% year-on-year, respectively [7].

Market Overview - Recent market trends indicate a pullback in the new consumption sector, creating opportunities in other sectors, particularly in cyclical stocks [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown significant gains, with precious metals, zinc, and lead experiencing notable increases [1] - Silver futures prices have strengthened as investor demand for precious metals has expanded from gold to silver, leading to strong performances from silver-related stocks [1] Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector has been active, with notable gains in glyphosate, fluorochemicals, and epoxy propylene, among others [1] - Key stocks such as Sanmei Co. and Juhua Co. reached historical highs during trading [2][1] Refrigerant Price Trends - The price of third-generation refrigerants has been on the rise, with the average domestic price of R32 refrigerant reaching 51,000 yuan per ton, marking a 19% increase this year and a 42% year-on-year growth [4] - Analysts attribute the price increase to seasonal demand driven by high summer temperatures and supply constraints due to quota policies [5] Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector has seen a surge, with companies like Haitian Pharmaceutical, Xiamen Tungsten, and Keheng Co. experiencing significant stock price increases [6] - Recent developments in the solid-state battery industry include advancements in high-nickel precursors and lithium-rich manganese-based precursors by companies like Longpan Technology [7] - The introduction of the "full solid-state battery" definition by the China Automotive Engineering Society marks a critical turning point for the solid-state battery industry, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape [8]

Summary of Conference Call on Fluorochemicals Industry Industry Overview - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing significant price increases for second-generation refrigerants (e.g., R22), with notable price growth expected in Q2 and Q3 of 2024, and a slight increase in Q4 despite being a traditional off-season. In Q1 2025, prices are projected to rise by approximately 9% quarter-on-quarter and 10% year-on-year, supported by quota reductions [1][2][3] Key Points on Second-Generation Refrigerants - Production of second-generation refrigerants is expected to decline by 34% year-on-year in Q4 2024 and by 18% year-on-year in Q1 2025. Exports are also projected to decrease by 13% in Q4 2024 and by 38% in Q1 2025. Despite the drop in export volumes, prices continue to rise due to reasonable inventory levels [1][4] - The market for second-generation refrigerants has seen a continuous price increase since 2018, driven by changes in the competitive landscape and strong demand from downstream markets [2][7] Insights on Third-Generation Refrigerants - Third-generation refrigerants (e.g., R32, R125, R134A) are facing tight quotas, leading to strong pricing power. Even in the off-season of Q1 2025, price increases are expected to match those of Q4 2024, indicating strong bargaining power for companies [1][5] - The overall demand for third-generation refrigerants is anticipated to be robust in the first half of 2025, with uncertainty in the second half, but the logic of increased pricing power remains intact [5][6] Air Conditioning Industry Performance - The air conditioning sector is performing well, with home air conditioning sales growing by 19% year-on-year in 2024 and a cumulative growth of approximately 10%. In Q1 2025, cumulative growth reached 15%, supporting the price increase of R32 refrigerants [1][6] - Low and reasonable inventory levels, combined with supply constraints during the Spring Festival, indicate a clear control of supply within the industry, which helps maintain stable supply and profitability [6] Price Trends and Impact on Company Performance - The refrigerant market has shown a clear upward price trend from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with R32 export prices aligning with domestic prices, leading to a 32% year-on-year increase in export volumes [2][7] - The overall improvement in demand and pricing power has resulted in enhanced gross and net profit margins for companies, attributed to significant increases in overseas export prices and reduced suppressive effects from low base comparisons [2][8] Future Market Outlook - The refrigerant market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with Q2 2025 likely showing higher prices than Q1. However, growth rates may moderate in the second half of the year due to base effects [9] - As long as supply-demand dynamics remain stable, the logic for sustained price increases will persist, supporting continued strong performance in company earnings and stock price appreciation [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the refrigerant industry is experiencing a price uptrend due to supply constraints and increasing demand driven by seasonal factors and government policies [1][2] - In Q2, the price of R32 long-term contracts rose to 46,600 yuan/ton, an increase of approximately 6,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous quarter [1] - The demand for refrigerants is expected to grow significantly due to government subsidy policies, restocking in Europe and the US, and increasing demand from emerging regions in Southeast Asia [1] Group 2 - The second-generation refrigerants, such as R22, are expected to face a supply-demand gap by 2025 due to rapid supply contraction and support from the air conditioning repair market [1] - The third-generation refrigerant R32 is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2025, despite a slight year-on-year increase in supply [1] - The refrigerant industry is characterized by high concentration, with major players showing a strong determination to maintain prices amid low inventory levels [1][2] Group 3 - Dongyue Group (00189) is a leading player in China's fluorosilicon industry, holding the fourth-largest HFCs quota and the largest R22 quota domestically [3] - The company benefits from integrated advantages across both fluorochemical and silicon chemical industries [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company's performance has significantly increased due to the continuous rise in refrigerant prices, with a notable growth in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025 [2][3] - The company has established a complete fluorochemical industry chain, becoming a major supplier in the industry, with expectations for continued strong performance in the coming years [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.17% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 779 million yuan, up 178.40% year-on-year - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.20% [2][4] Product Pricing and Market Dynamics - The average selling price of fluorinated refrigerants increased by 28.17% to 26,100 yuan per ton in 2024, with sales volume growing by 1.65% to 125,400 tons - The gross margin for the fluorinated refrigerant business improved significantly, reaching 33.51%, an increase of 21.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 5.74 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 1.83 billion yuan, translating to a basic earnings per share of 3.00 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 160.64%, driven by rising refrigerant prices [3]. - The average price of refrigerant products increased by 58.08% compared to the same period last year, contributing to the company's profitability [3]. - The report anticipates continued price increases for refrigerants in Q2 2025, with long-term contracts for R32 and R410a rising by 14.77% and 14.42% respectively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 58.00 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.05% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.09 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 15.49%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.45 percentage points [3]. - The company's gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 28.42%, up by 13.67 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 1.41 yuan for 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 times at the current stock price [4]. - Revenue forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: 2024A at 24.46 billion yuan, 2025E at 25.47 billion yuan, 2026E at 27.81 billion yuan, and 2027E at 30.61 billion yuan [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing significant growth in net profit due to the rapid increase in refrigerant prices, with substantial year-on-year increases projected for 2024 and Q1 2025 [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.17% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 779 million yuan, up 178.40% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.21 billion yuan, a 26.42% increase year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 401 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 159.59% [1] Refrigerant Market Dynamics - The company's refrigerant sales volume reached 125,400 tons in 2024, a 1.65% increase year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of refrigerants for 2024 was 26,100 yuan per ton, up 28.17% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the average selling price of refrigerants rose to 37,400 yuan per ton, marking a 56.92% year-on-year increase [2] - The supply quotas for second-generation refrigerants have been significantly reduced, with R22 quotas down by 18% and R142b by 64% [2] Price Trends - As of April 28, 2025, the price of R32 was 48,000 yuan per ton, with a price difference of 32,970 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3% increase [3] - The price of R22 remained stable at 36,000 yuan per ton, with no change in price difference [3] - R134a and R152a also saw price increases of 1% and 6% respectively compared to early April [3] Strategic Investments - The company is actively investing in the fluorinated refrigerants, fluorochemical products, and fluoropolymers sectors [4] - Projects include a lithium hexafluorophosphate production facility with an annual capacity of 6,000 tons and a fluoropolymer project with a capacity of 5,000 tons [4] - The company is also advancing various technological and infrastructure projects to enhance its production capabilities [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing structural reforms in the supply side of the refrigerant market, leading to a more concentrated competitive landscape [6] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.598 billion, 1.844 billion, and 1.959 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 105.3%, 15.4%, and 6.2% [6] - The diluted EPS for the same period is forecasted to be 2.62, 3.02, and 3.21 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.3, 14.1, and 13.3 [6]