点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 2025年，拜登加强型医保成为两党政治博弈工具，也成为了牵动资本市场的重要线索。目前，两党仅就3 个部门的全年预算（占比11%）达成一致，剩余9个部门预算将在2026年1月30日到期。而在12月11日的医 保投票中，双方再次否决对方提案，导致圣诞节假期前解决医保的希望基本破灭。受此影响，polymarket 预测政府关门概率一度冲上40%，后下行至35%左右。明年一季度，应对医保和政府关门，可能有四种场 景，也对应不同的资产价格表现： 场景一，政府停摆，医保补贴断档，触发降息，美国资产进入"衰退式"交易。该种场景下，美元指数和美 股下挫，黄金等避险资产及非美股市受益。但是，该场景依然为低概率事件，目前两党谁都无法承担医保 补贴无法延期的后果，尤其是面临中期选举冲击的共和党。 场景二，两党围绕着医保补贴达成一致，政府顺利运行，一季度美国经济实现环比反弹，降息暂缓。该种 场景利好美股和美元指数，黄金作为避险资产将相对承压，美债也会受到赤字走扩的冲击。但在明年1 月，两党之间能否就医保取得一个令双方都能满意的协议，依然存在较大挑战。 场景三，共和党人以"预算协调"的方式强力推动财政预算 ...

北京时间12月13日早间消息，据报道，美国众议院共和党领导层于提交一项医保提案，该提案未解决医 保保费大幅上涨的问题。最早从明年1月起，数百万美国人将受到这一上涨影响。 该法案未延长《平价医疗法案》（又称"奥巴马医改"）的强化补贴。这项补贴于疫情期间出台，若国会 不采取行动，将于12月31日到期。这意味着约2400万美国人可能从明年1月起面临医保保费大幅上涨的 情况。 法案包含费用分摊减免条款，旨在为部分人群降低保费，但同时会减少整体补贴额度，并导致另一部分 人群保费上涨。该条款将于2027年1月生效。 若众议院规则委员会投票允许，议员可在下周的全院辩论中提出修正案，以延长补贴并解决2026年的补 贴缺口问题。众议院规则委员会定于周二召开会议，就此作出决定。 北京时间12月13日早间消息，据报道，美国众议院共和党领导层于提交一项医保提案，该提案未解决医 保保费大幅上涨的问题。最早从明年1月起，数百万美国人将受到这一上涨影响。 该法案未延长《平价医疗法案》（又称"奥巴马医改"）的强化补贴。这项补贴于疫情期间出台，若国会 不采取行动，将于12月31日到期。这意味着约2400万美国人可能从明年1月起面临医保保费大幅 ...

Core Insights - Inflation in the U.S. reached a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, with ongoing cost of living challenges, particularly affecting middle-class households [1] - Healthcare costs are rising faster than overall inflation, with out-of-pocket expenses averaging $1,514 per person in 2023, and expected to increase further [2] - The expiration of enhanced tax credits for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) by the end of 2025 will lead to increased premium payments for many lower- and middle-class households [3][4] Healthcare Sector - Healthcare costs have consistently risen by 2% to 3% annually, with projections indicating further increases in the coming years [2] - The average enhanced tax credit for ACA marketplace participants is $5,525 for those earning $65,000, which will not be available post-2025, resulting in higher out-of-pocket expenses [4][5] - Anticipated increases in out-of-pocket costs include hospital visits and prescription medications, with hospital services increasing by an average of 3.2% per year, physician services by 2.6%, and prescription medications by 3.4% [5][7] Food Sector - Food prices rose by 3.1% in the 12 months ending in September 2025, with grocery prices increasing by 2.7% and food away from home by 3.7% [5] - A survey indicated that nearly half of Americans find groceries harder to afford compared to the previous year, highlighting the financial strain on middle-class households [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - President Trump indicated that support for immediate significant interest rate cuts will be a decisive factor in selecting the next Federal Reserve Chair [1] - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [2] - Trump's stance suggests a desire for looser monetary policy to address voter dissatisfaction with high prices [1][2] Group 2: Tariff Adjustments and Price Control - Trump mentioned potential adjustments to tariff policies as a strategy to help lower some commodity prices, although he did not specify which goods would be affected [3] - He claimed that prices are generally declining, despite official data indicating a 3% increase in the Consumer Price Index over the past year [3] Group 3: Healthcare Subsidies and Economic Outlook - The expiration of enhanced Obamacare subsidies at the end of the year is expected to lead to a significant rise in health insurance premiums by 2026 [5] - Trump's optimistic assessment of the economy contrasts sharply with public sentiment, as nearly half of voters feel that the cost of living has reached its worst level [5] - Uncertainty surrounds the White House's intentions regarding the temporary extension of Obamacare subsidies, with Trump expressing indecision on the matter [4][5]

特朗普在最新访谈中明确表示，支持立即大幅降息将成为其选择新任美联储主席的关键标准。这一表态 凸显了总统对货币政策的干预意图，可能加剧白宫与美联储之间的紧张关系。 美联储下任主席人选面临利率立场考验 报道称，特朗普周一在白宫接受POLITICO记者Dasha Burns采访时，对美联储主席人选设定了明确的政 策立场要求。这一表态打破了历届总统在美联储人事任命上保持相对克制的传统，可能对美联储的独立 性构成挑战。 美联储主席的任命将直接影响未来数年的货币政策走向。特朗普对降息的明确偏好，可能促使其选择倾 向于宽松货币政策的候选人，这与市场对通胀压力的担忧形成对比。 经济评估与现实存在落差 特朗普对经济状况的乐观评价与选民感受之间存在明显落差。特朗普坚称"一切价格都在下降"，并表示 他"继承了一个烂摊子"，将选民对价格的不满归咎于拜登政府。 然而报道称，数据显示，物价仍在持续上涨，尽管涨幅有所放缓。特朗普表示可能对关税政策进行额外 调整以帮助降低某些商品价格，正如他已经采取的措施，但他坚称总体价格趋势正朝着正确方向发展。 特朗普及其所在党派今年秋季面临一系列选举挫折，选民对高生活成本的不满是主要原因之一。在采访 中 ...

Core Points - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has ended after 43 days, with President Trump signing a temporary funding bill [1][2] - The new bill provides funding for most federal agencies until January 30, 2026, but leaves nine budget items unresolved, indicating a potential future shutdown [4][6] - The shutdown has caused significant economic damage, with a projected 1.5% decrease in GDP growth for the quarter and an estimated permanent economic loss of $11 billion [1][2] Funding and Economic Impact - The temporary funding bill includes provisions for the Department of Agriculture, Department of Veterans Affairs, military construction projects, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [2][4] - The Congressional Budget Office predicted that a six-week shutdown would lead to a 1.5% drop in GDP growth, highlighting the economic repercussions of the standoff [1][2] - The inability to collect key economic data during the shutdown may lead to long-term damage to the U.S. economic analysis and decision-making processes [7][8] Political Dynamics - The shutdown has intensified partisan divisions in Washington, with both parties blaming each other for the impasse [6][9] - The Democratic Party's core demand for healthcare benefits was not fully addressed in the final agreement, leading to internal dissent among party members [3][4] - The political fallout from the shutdown may influence the upcoming midterm elections, although past shutdowns have shown that public memory of such events tends to fade quickly [6][9] International Implications - The prolonged shutdown has damaged the U.S.'s credibility on the global stage, potentially affecting its position as a leader in the international economic order [9] - The shutdown has raised concerns among international investors regarding the reliability of the U.S. as a stable market and financial system arbiter [9]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown, lasting 43 days, has officially ended with President Trump signing a funding bill, marking a historic resolution to the fiscal impasse [1][3] - The shutdown was primarily caused by disagreements over healthcare subsidies, particularly the extension of tax credits under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which Democrats insisted upon as a condition for reopening the government [5] Legislative Process - The House of Representatives passed the funding bill with a vote of 222 in favor and 209 against, following its approval in the Senate [3] - House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed relief over the reopening of the government and criticized Democrats for using the American people as political pawns [3] Healthcare Subsidies - The funding bill did not include the requested extension of ACA tax credits, which was a significant demand from Democrats aimed at preventing premium increases for millions of insured individuals [5] - The absence of this provision indicates that healthcare issues will continue to be a contentious topic in Congress despite the end of the shutdown [5] Bipartisan Efforts - Following the passage of the funding bill, bipartisan efforts emerged to propose a separate bill aimed at extending ACA tax credits for two years [5][6] - The proposed compromise seeks to address concerns over rising premiums while implementing reforms to avoid increasing the deficit, including measures to combat fraudulent practices in healthcare billing [6]

Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on a spending bill to end a record-long government shutdown that has lasted 43 days since October 1, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees and causing significant disruptions in various sectors [1][4] - The shutdown has led to delays in flights, hindered the release of key economic data, and threatened food assistance for millions of families, with national parks and museums also closed [1][5] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that a six-week shutdown will reduce fourth-quarter GDP by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in a net loss of approximately $11 billion [1][5] Legislative Developments - The bill includes a controversial provision allowing senators to claim $500,000 if their phone records were collected without their knowledge, which has sparked bipartisan backlash [2][3] - Some Republican lawmakers plan to propose separate legislation to repeal this provision after the government reopens [3] - House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stated that Democrats will continue to push for an extension of healthcare subsidies, indicating that the legislative battle is not over [3] Government Operations - The government will require several days to fully restart operations after the bill is passed and signed by the President, with some agencies potentially not resuming until the following week [4] - Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy indicated that flight restrictions would begin to be lifted within a week of the government reopening, coinciding with the Thanksgiving travel peak [4] Economic Impact - The economic impact of the shutdown is expected to be significant, with estimates suggesting that each week of the shutdown costs the economy between $10 billion and $15 billion [6] - While back pay will be issued to federal employees, the process of recalculating salaries may take time, and some costs associated with the shutdown will be irrecoverable [5][6] - The shutdown has also delayed the release of important economic data, creating a potential data gap that could distort future economic forecasts [6]

Centene Corporation Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) - **Date of Conference**: November 11, 2025 - **Speakers**: Sarah London (CEO), Drew Asher (CFO) Key Points Industry Context - Centene operates primarily in the healthcare services sector, focusing on government-sponsored programs such as Medicaid and Medicare. Financial Performance - Q3 results exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of the full-year outlook to at least $2 per share [4][7] - The company reported a revenue stream of approximately $5 billion from the Florida Medicaid contract, which is expected to decrease to between $4.5 billion and $9.3 billion next year due to contract changes [8][9] Medicaid Updates - Centene was not awarded the CMS Florida contract after six years, impacting their revenue but allowing for a focus on sustainable margins [5][8] - The company is prioritizing a seamless transition for affected members and is not planning to protest the contract decision [5] - Medicaid margins are expected to remain consistent next year, contrasting with some peers who anticipate declines [15][36] Medicare and Marketplace Insights - Open enrollment for Medicare is ongoing, with a focus on margin improvement rather than membership growth [49][54] - The company is optimistic about its position in the Medicare Advantage market, aiming for break-even by 2027 [49] - There is an uptick in call volume related to Marketplace inquiries, indicating member confusion over premium changes [20][22] Legislative and Subsidy Discussions - Ongoing discussions in Congress regarding enhanced subsidies could significantly impact members and the overall market [24][25] - Centene has prepared for various scenarios regarding subsidy extensions and has built pricing for 2026 accordingly [26][30] Operational Strategies - The company is focused on improving margins through various levers, including rate negotiations and utilization management [15][17] - Centene is actively engaged with state governments to optimize Medicaid programs and address issues like fraud and waste [41][42] Future Outlook - The company sees potential for growth in Medicaid and is exploring disruptive opportunities in employer-sponsored insurance [59] - Centene aims to maintain a flexible capital structure, targeting a debt-to-capital ratio below 40% to seize future opportunities [58] Behavioral Health and Cost Management - Behavioral health accounts for approximately 20% of Medicaid spending, and states are increasingly focused on managing these costs [42][43] - Centene is working with states to implement effective policy changes to control costs while maintaining care quality [41] Conclusion - Centene is navigating a complex healthcare landscape with a focus on sustainable growth, margin improvement, and proactive engagement with legislative changes and state partnerships [59][60]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill on November 10, allowing the federal government to reopen and potentially ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [1][2] - The bill was approved with a vote of 60 in favor and 40 against, breaking a negotiation deadlock primarily through the efforts of three former governors [2] - The bill will fund most federal agencies at current levels until January 30, 2026, and provides full-year funding for specific departments and programs [2][3] Group 1 - The Senate's approval included provisions to reverse mass layoffs of federal employees during the shutdown and ensure back pay for all federal workers affected [3] - The bill also commits to a vote on extending enhanced subsidies for the Affordable Care Act by the second week of December [3] Group 2 - The House of Representatives, which has been in recess since mid-September, is expected to vote on the bill as early as December 12 [5] - President Trump expressed support for the bipartisan agreement, although there are significant concerns among House Democrats regarding the bill's implications for healthcare benefits [6] - The temporary funding bill only covers three of the twelve annual appropriations, indicating that further negotiations will be necessary, and the government may face another shutdown in the future [6]