9月美国企业产出的进一步强劲增长，为今年迄今表现最好的季度画上了圆满句号。PMI调查数据显示，第三季度美国经济按年率计算正以2.2%的速 度增长。 9月美国Markit PMI数据的初读如下，50为荣枯分水岭。 美国9月Markit制造业PMI初值52，连续第二个月扩张，预期52.2，8月前值53，去年同期为47.3。其中，就业指数从8月的53.1降至52.6；新订单指数环 比下降。 美国9月Markit服务业PMI初值53.9，为2025年6月以来的最低值，预期54，8月前值54.5，去年同期为55.2。其中，就业指数从8月份的52降至51.6，为 2025年4月以来的最低值；物价指数较上月下降，为2025年4月以来的最低值。 美国9月Markit综合PMI初值53.6，为2025年6月以来的最低值，预期54，8月前值54.6，去年同期为54。其中，新订单指数从8月的53.9降至53.1，为2025 年6月以来的最低值；就业指数较上月下降。 展望未来，9月份企业对未来一年产出的预期升至四个月高点，但仍低于制造业和服务业调查的长期平均水平。服务业信心指数升至5月份以来的最高水 平。 标普全球市场情报首席商业经 ...

Core Insights - The Kenya Standard Bank Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose significantly from 46.8 in July, the lowest in the past 12 months, to 49.4 in August, indicating that business conditions are nearing recovery despite remaining below the neutral level of 50.0 [1] - Standard Bank economist Christopher Leggilius noted that while business activity remains subdued, manufacturers are more optimistic about output over the next 12 months, suggesting healthier business activity in the coming months [1] - Companies have resumed procurement activities due to improved demand outlook, showing stronger confidence for the next year, reaching the highest level in two and a half years [1] - Employment levels have also increased, with August recording the largest rise in new jobs in the past 15 months [1] - However, businesses continue to face significant overall cost burdens [1]

Group 1: Economic Impact of US Tariffs on Japan - Japan's manufacturing sector continues to shrink, with the August PMI at 49.7, indicating ongoing contraction as new orders decline, particularly in exports [2][3] - Japanese manufacturers' pre-tax profits dropped by 11.5% year-on-year in Q2, largely due to the impact of US tariffs on the automotive sector, which has led to reduced sales prices [3] - The Japanese government has revised its GDP growth forecast for FY2025 from 1.2% to 0.7%, reflecting the adverse effects of US tariff policies on the global economic outlook [9] Group 2: Trade Negotiation Challenges - Ongoing disputes over rice purchases have stalled further negotiations between Japan and the US, with Japan opposing US proposals that it views as interference in domestic affairs [6][7] - Communication issues between Japanese and US representatives have contributed to the current negotiation challenges, with Japan's chief negotiator having limited contact with key US officials [7] - The $550 billion investment mechanism within the Japan-US trade agreement has raised concerns that Japanese companies may prioritize investments in the US over domestic operations [5] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Short-term economic growth in Japan is expected to face pressure, with projections for Q3 growth slowing to 0.8% amid concerns over US tariffs and their impact on export profitability [9] - The potential for a decrease in US interest rates could further complicate Japan's economic situation, as it may lead to a narrowing interest rate differential that could squeeze export margins [9]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the global capital expenditure boom driven by "front-loading" in the U.S. and technology investments will face challenges in the second half of 2025, with a significant slowdown expected [1]. Group 1: Global Capital Expenditure Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, global capital expenditure surged by 14%, primarily driven by developed markets, which saw a 14.6% increase, while emerging markets recorded a 12.2% rise [2]. - The U.S. was the main contributor, with capital expenditure increasing by 24% in the first quarter, largely due to companies engaging in "front-loading" in anticipation of expected tariffs [2]. Group 2: Regional Performance - Other developed economies showed mixed results, with the UK (+49%) and Canada (+23%) experiencing remarkable growth, while the Eurozone and Australia faced mild quarterly contractions [3]. - In emerging markets, India and Taiwan benefited from technology cycles and AI-driven demand, showing strong capital expenditure, whereas South Korea experienced a contraction [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Despite a projected 8.8% growth in global capital expenditure for the second quarter, signs of slowing momentum have emerged, indicating potential cooling in the second half of the year [5]. - Three fundamental factors are expected to weigh on future capital expenditure performance: stagnation in corporate profits, high borrowing costs, and low business confidence [8]. - Corporate profit growth was robust at 7.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, but is expected to stagnate as GDP growth slows to 1.9% by the fourth quarter [9]. - Business confidence remains low, with global manufacturing expectations dropping to recession-like levels, and while there has been some recovery, it is still below normal levels [15]. - High interest rates continue to pose a challenge, with industrial-grade BBB bond yields and emerging market CEMBI yields remaining within the past three years' range, limiting capital expenditure growth [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the UK consumer confidence index, marking the first drop in nearly three years, attributed to increased concerns over job security and high inflation [1][2] - Deloitte's survey indicates that the consumer confidence index fell by 2.6 percentage points to 10.4% in Q2 2024, the lowest level since Q1 2024 [1] - Concerns over a slowing labor market are leading consumers to worry about job security and income growth, compounded by high inflation and living costs affecting attitudes towards personal debt [1] Group 2 - Companies are reportedly less willing to hire due to three main factors: increased employment taxes, higher minimum wages, and potential legal changes that would make it harder to dismiss new employees [1] - The unemployment rate in the UK rose to 4.7%, the highest level since 2021, while inflation in June reached 3.6%, the highest since January 2024 [1] - GfK's consumer sentiment survey presents a slightly different picture, showing a decline in consumer confidence in the latter half of last year, but a rebound to the highest level since December last month [1][2] Group 3 - Deloitte's survey involved 3,200 consumers conducted between June 13 and June 16, focusing on six key issues related to employment security, job opportunities, income, debt, children's welfare, and overall health and well-being [2] - Another economic survey indicated a 3.9 percentage point increase, although it remains 18.4 percentage points lower than a year ago [2] - Deloitte's chief economist noted that while economic activity has slowed in recent months, rising business confidence suggests resilience in the economy amid geopolitical uncertainties [2]

Group 1 - The attractiveness of the US as an investment destination for UK executives has significantly declined, with a net balance of +2% compared to +59% at the end of 2024 [1] - UK executives are increasingly favoring local and nearby investment opportunities, as indicated by a rise in the net balance for the UK from -12% to +13%, making it equally attractive as India [1] - Despite the decline in US attractiveness, it remains more appealing than other developed European countries, which showed negative indicators in the Deloitte survey [1] Group 2 - Business confidence among UK executives has improved slightly, with the optimism index rising from -14% to -11% compared to the previous quarter [2] - The overall economic growth in the UK remains weak, posing challenges for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, who may face pressure to raise taxes in the next budget [2] - The Deloitte survey conducted from June 16 to June 29 included 66 CFOs and executives, representing a total market capitalization of £386 billion [2]

新西兰Nzier：二季度商业信心改善。 ...

Core Insights - Lloyds Bank reports that UK business confidence has reached its highest level since 2015 [1] Group 1 - The increase in business confidence is attributed to improved economic conditions and a more stable political environment [1] - Companies are optimistic about future growth prospects, which may lead to increased investment and hiring [1] - The survey indicates that 60% of businesses expect their performance to improve over the next year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that while there is some expansion in UK business activity in June, the overall growth remains weak and the economic recovery faces multiple challenges [1][2] - The June manufacturing PMI in the UK is reported at 47.7, exceeding expectations of 46.6 and the previous value of 46.4, while the services PMI stands at 51.3, matching expectations and showing an increase from 50.9 [1] - The composite PMI for June is at 50.7, slightly above the expected 50.5 and up from 50.3 in the previous month, indicating a marginal improvement in business conditions [1] Group 2 - Employment, new export business, and future output indices in the UK composite PMI have deteriorated, influenced by increased global economic and political uncertainties [2] - The new orders index has surpassed the growth threshold of 50 for the first time since November of the previous year, yet layoffs are accelerating due to rising employer social security contributions introduced by the UK Chancellor [2] - Business confidence remains low compared to the same period last year, with companies facing higher labor costs and lower demand, leading to continued job losses [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that business confidence in the U.S. improved in May, alleviating some of the pessimism regarding future prospects, primarily due to the suspension of tariff increases [1] - The recovery in output growth in May is attributed to a rebound in demand, moving away from the recent low in April [1] - Despite the improvement, market sentiment and output growth remain relatively subdued, with concerns over potential future tariffs influencing businesses to prepare in advance [1] Group 2 - There is a notable accumulation of input inventories, reaching the highest level on record since the survey began 18 years ago, driven by fears of supply shortages and rising prices related to tariffs [1]