Xml [Table_Title] 国防军工行业 商业航天景气抬升，看好 AIDC 供电&服务器、军贸、大飞机等 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|国防军工 证券研究报告 | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-01 | | [分析师： Table_Author] 孟祥杰 | SAC 执证号：S0260521040002 | | | --- | --- | --- | | SFC CE No. BRF275 | | | | 010-59136693 | | | | mengxiangjie@gf.com.cn | 分析师： | 吴坤其 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120001 | | | | SFC CE No. BRT139 | | | | 010-59133689 | | | | wukunqi@gf.com.cn | 分析师： | 邱净博 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120005 | | | | 010-59136685 | ...

（1-12⽉）上年同期本报告期比上年同期增减（%）营业收入289,342.25246,213.8117.52营业利润 32,857.7036,027.27-8.80利润总额33,231.0536,494.95-8.94归属于上市公司股东的净利润 30,263.8832,515.58-6.92归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润26,202.9027,932.57-6.19基本 每股收益（元）0.661.00-34.00加权平均净资产收益率（%）16.9019.83减少2.93个百分点本报告期末上 年度末本报告期末比上年度末增减（%）总资产453,841.60394,481.5815.05归属于上市公司股东的净资 产184,609.30173,716.126.27股本（万股）45,733.3432,666.6740.00归属于上市公司股东的每股净资产 （元）4.045.32-24.03 来源：新浪财经-鹰眼工作室 2月27日，纽威数控发布业绩快报，2025年公司预计营业收入28.93亿元，同比增长17.52%；预计实现利 润总额人民币3.32亿元，比上年同期下降8.94%；预计实现归母净利润3.03亿元 ...

成份股63涨17跌，华丰科技、钢研高纳分别上涨14.66%、13.23%居前，鸿远电子、应流股份、抚顺特 钢集体涨停封板，菲利华续涨5.21%再创历史新高！ 从催化来看，商业航天、大飞机、低空经济等新质生产力方向均有贡献，多则消息点燃军工做多热情。 军工，强势续涨！2月26日，军工板块盘初V字翻红后持续走高，高人气军工ETF华宝（512810）午后上 探2.27%，收涨1.93%，全天振幅超3%，日线豪取五连阳。 商业航天领域，我国重复使用火箭朱雀三号计划今年第二季度再次开展回收试验；可回收液体运载火箭 力箭二号计划于今年3月下旬首飞，将搭载轻舟一号货运飞船初样实施发射。 大飞机产能提速，据2025年中国商飞全球供应商大会，C919在5年内下线规划将达到150架/年，届时年 产值有望达到1000亿元，市场空间广阔。低空经济方面，2月以来，广深、安徽、海南等多省市顶层设 计明确支持产业发展。 就军工投资机会，银河证券建议，聚焦商业航天/空、两机、军贸和装备智能化机会。东方证券则认 为，大飞机瓶颈环节提速超预期、军贸在中东等新市场份额提升的预期有望随近期地缘事件强化，应重 点加大这两个方向的配置。 【投军工，选" ...

A股马年首个交易日（2月24日），军工板块盘初短线下探后快速回升，而后持续飘红，高人气军工ETF 华宝（512810）摸高1.98%，收涨1.16%日线三连阳，全天频现溢价，收盘溢价率仍有0.29%，显示买盘 资金活跃。 成份股57涨23跌，中航重机、菲利华涨超8%居前，中国动力大涨6.17%，权重股中国船舶、航发动力、 光启技术齐涨超2%。臻镭科技、航天发展等多只商业航天人气股逆市下跌。 消息面上，春节前后军工各领域催化不断。国内，春运期间，14架国产大飞机C919日均执飞近50班航 班，同比增长52.6%，2026国产化进度加速可期。商业航天方面，业内人士表示，3至6月有望迎来可回 收火箭试验的密集验证。 国际上，美伊关系高度紧张。日前美国军工巨头雷神技术表示，美国海军批准其"风暴破坏者"智能武器 在"超级大黄蜂"机队上使用。伴随国际地缘政治风险加剧，我国国防建设紧迫性提升。 东方证券最新研报建议"加大军工板块配置，核心看好大飞机和军贸"。该机构认为，大飞机瓶颈环节提 速超预期、军贸在中东等新市场份额提升的预期有望随近期地缘事件强化，应重点加大这两个方向的配 置，并等待商业航天、内需方向的机会。* 【投军 ...

A股马年首个交易日（2月24日），军工板块盘初短线下探后快速回升，而后持续飘红，高人气军工ETF 华宝（512810）摸高1.98%，收涨1.16%日线三连阳，全天频现溢价，收盘溢价率仍有0.29%，显示买盘 资金活跃。 成份股57涨23跌，中航重机、菲利华涨超8%居前，中国动力大涨6.17%，权重股中国船舶、航发动力、 光启技术齐涨超2%。臻镭科技、航天发展等多只商业航天人气股逆市下跌。 消息面上，春节前后军工各领域催化不断。国内，春运期间，14架国产大飞机C919日均执飞近50班航 班，同比增长52.6%，2026国产化进度加速可期。商业航天方面，业内人士表示，3至6月有望迎来可回 收火箭试验的密集验证。 东方证券最新研报建议"加大军工板块配置，核心看好大飞机和军贸"。该机构认为，大飞机瓶颈环节提 速超预期、军贸在中东等新市场份额提升的预期有望随近期地缘事件强化，应重点加大这两个方向的配 置，并等待商业航天、内需方向的机会。* 【投军工，选"八一"】代码有"八一"的军工ETF华宝（512810）（原国防军工ETF）覆盖"大飞机、商业 航天、低空经济、卫星导航、军工信息化、可控核聚变"等诸多热门主题，同时是 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The focus is on increasing allocations in the large aircraft and military trade sectors, with expectations for growth in these areas due to geopolitical events and advancements in core technologies [8] - The large aircraft sector is expected to see accelerated development, particularly with the C919 aircraft, as key components are set to achieve certification and production targets [11][12] - Military trade is anticipated to benefit from heightened defense spending in the Middle East due to regional tensions, with expectations for increased market share for Chinese military exports [12] - The commercial aerospace sector is viewed positively for the first half of the year, despite recent adjustments and lower-than-expected launch activities [13] - Domestic demand in the military sector is expected to recover, with potential for exceeding current market pessimism as the "14th Five-Year Plan" progresses [14] Summary by Sections 1.1 Large Aircraft - The report highlights that the current market has low expectations for the large aircraft sector, particularly regarding the C919's delivery volumes. However, advancements in engine and onboard systems are expected to accelerate, potentially leading to a faster-than-expected development pace in the next two years [11][12] 1.2 Military Trade - The report notes that escalating tensions in the Middle East are likely to increase defense spending and military imports in the region. China's military trade share is expected to rise as countries diversify their defense procurement sources [12] 1.3 Commercial Aerospace - Despite recent adjustments in the commercial aerospace sector, the report maintains a positive outlook for investment opportunities in leading companies, particularly in satellite manufacturing and related technologies [13] 1.4 Domestic Military Demand - The report suggests that the market has been overly pessimistic regarding domestic demand recovery. It anticipates that as geopolitical uncertainties rise and the "14th Five-Year Plan" is implemented, demand in the military sector may recover faster than expected [14] 1.5 Investment Recommendations - The report recommends actively investing in core targets within the large aircraft and military trade sectors, while monitoring the commercial aerospace sector for potential catalysts. Specific companies are highlighted for investment consideration [16]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][3] Core Views - The company is expected to see profit recovery in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 30.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.94%, and a net profit of 999.2 million yuan, up 5.15% year-on-year [1][26] - The management team has been rejuvenated with a core group of individuals born in the 1980s, which is expected to enhance governance and operational efficiency [1][22] - The company is strategically positioned in military aircraft and military trade, with a solid product matrix for military transport aircraft and ongoing development of special aircraft based on the Y-20 platform [2][41] - In the civil aviation sector, the company is set to benefit from the growth of the C919 aircraft and is actively engaging in the low-altitude economy, which is projected to be a trillion-yuan market [2][57] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 30.24 billion yuan, with a significant quarterly revenue increase of 27.51% in Q3 [1][26] - The net profit margin reached 3.28%, marking a recent high for the company [1][26] - The company’s revenue and profit are expected to continue growing, with projected net profits of 1.17 billion yuan, 1.34 billion yuan, and 1.52 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][74] Business Segments - The military segment is solid, with the company being the sole producer of strategic transport aircraft in China, and the Y-20 has achieved mass production capabilities [2][41] - The civil aviation segment is expected to benefit from the C919 aircraft, with a projected market size of several hundred billion yuan over the next 20 years [2][57] - The company is also expanding into the low-altitude economy, with products like the HH-200 unmanned transport system, which is in the process of obtaining airworthiness certification [2][65] Management and Governance - The management team has undergone significant changes, with a focus on younger leadership, which is expected to improve decision-making and operational stability [1][22] - The new management structure includes several individuals with extensive experience in the aviation industry, indicating a strategic shift towards expertise-driven leadership [22][25] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has established a strong foothold in both military and civil aviation markets, with a focus on high-performance military aircraft and a comprehensive product line for civil aviation [19][41] - The company’s operational efficiency is reflected in its low expense ratio, which is expected to support future profitability [38][30]

Group 1: Key Insights on the Robotics Industry - Quadruped robots, known as "machine dogs," have strong environmental adaptability and have entered the commercialization phase, excelling in tasks where wheeled or tracked robots struggle [10] - The market for machine dogs is expected to grow significantly due to diverse application scenarios, including defense, industrial use, emergency rescue, and consumer household applications [10] - The machine dog industry is experiencing global competition, with domestic brands currently holding a dominant position, and over 50 domestic companies are now involved in the market [10] Group 2: Key Insights on the Utilities Sector - In the thermal power sector, both coal and electricity prices are declining, which is expected to stabilize revenue through capacity pricing, while coal prices are projected to average 697 RMB/ton in 2025, a decrease of 18.47% year-on-year [10] - Hydropower utilization hours are expected to increase in 2025, with a projected annual utilization of 3367 hours, benefiting from improved water conditions and reduced financial costs due to interest rate cuts [10] - Nuclear power is anticipated to maintain high utilization hours, with a projected 7809 hours in 2025, although performance may be impacted by declining market electricity prices [10] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - For thermal power, recommended companies include Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Huaneng International Power, which are expected to benefit from stable profitability [10] - In the hydropower sector, companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment are recommended due to their expected stable growth in generation capacity [10] - In the natural gas sector, long-term prospects are positive for companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, as cost reductions and demand recovery are anticipated [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on domestic large aircraft and commercial aerospace, highlighting the successful participation of COMAC in the 2026 Singapore Airshow, which is expected to accelerate order acquisition [7][10] - The design and testing phase of the C929 wide-body aircraft is progressing rapidly, with initial wind tunnel tests already underway, indicating a potential acceleration in R&D progress [12] - The report continues to favor commercial aerospace, military aircraft, and new types of combat capabilities, suggesting that the military industry will benefit from both domestic and international demand [13] Summary by Sections 1.1 COMAC's Participation in the 2026 Singapore Airshow - COMAC showcased multiple aircraft models, including the C909 and C919, and secured an order for six C909 firefighting aircraft, indicating a growing recognition of domestic large aircraft in international markets [10][11] 1.2 Acceleration of C929 Development - The C929's design and testing are being expedited, with resources mobilized to potentially launch the aircraft ahead of schedule. Initial wind tunnel tests have begun, marking a significant milestone in the aircraft's development [12] 1.3 Continued Optimism for Commercial Aerospace and Military Growth - The report anticipates that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will enhance military equipment construction, with a focus on unmanned systems and deep-sea technology. The military sector is expected to see growth from both civilian and military trade, positioning it as a second growth driver for the industry [13][14]

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