，企业整体出货节奏偏慢，成品库存攀升，产销压力下，部分企业存停限产现象。ru2605合约短线预计在1 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 5400-16000区间波动，nr2602合约短线预计在12400-13000区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-12-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 15670 | 5 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 5 20号胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | 12690 | 25 | | | | 45 | | -35 | -15 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 298 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-12-11 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 分点，同比+6.07个百分点。前期检修企业排产逐步恢复，对产能利用率形成一定带动。 步恢复，带动本周国内轮胎企业产能利用率环比提升，进入季节性淡季，企业整体出货节奏偏慢，多数企 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 业处于灵活控产状态，限制整体产能利用率提升幅度，随着成品库存继续攀升，后期不排除个别企业检修 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 或降负运行。ru2601合约短线预计在14900-15500区间波动，nr2601合约短线预计在12000-12300区间波 免责声明 动。 | 项目类别 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate significantly, with inventory piling up in both bonded and general trade warehouses. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage remain at a high level, but downstream factories arrange production flexibly and stock up cautiously, leading to a large - scale inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. - Domestic tire companies' capacity utilization has increased week - on - week, but the shipment pace of each tire company is slow. Short - term production control behavior still exists, and the increase in overall capacity utilization is expected to be limited. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11800 - 12200 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15040 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 11970 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. - The trading volume and open interest of related contracts changed, with the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai rubber increasing by 65920 hands to 123975 hands, and that of the 20 - number rubber decreasing by 2375 hands to 36885 hands. - The Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber spreads and their changes were also reported, along with the net positions of the top 20 in both contracts and the exchange warehouse receipts [2]. Spot Market - The prices of various types of natural rubber in the Shanghai market and synthetic rubber in the spot market changed. For example, the price of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 14850 yuan/ton, while the price of Shanghai market Vietnam 3L decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 15200 yuan/ton. - The base spreads of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber and their changes were also presented [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of different forms of Thai raw rubber (such as smoke sheets, films, glue water, and cup glue) and their changes were given. - The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 and their changes were reported. - The monthly import volumes of technical - classified natural rubber and mixed rubber and their changes were provided [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires, inventory days, and production volumes and their changes were reported. For example, the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.33%, up 1.08 percentage points; the monthly production volume of all - steel tires was 12420000 pieces, down 720000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying asset, and the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options and their changes were reported [2]. Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November, the cumulative sales exceeded 1000000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (including bonded and general trade) was 481600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.71%. - As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 15280 -50 | 85 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 10 20号胶1-2价差(日,元/吨) | 12205 -30 | 40 -5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3075 | 45 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 89564 | -9867 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 49887 | -2617 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -27476 | -94 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -11679 | -530 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 41400 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 51307 14650 | 0 -200 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 15200 | 0 | | | 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 1835 | 5 马标SM ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory accumulation of natural rubber in Qingdao area has narrowed month - on - month, with a slight destocking in bonded warehouses and continuous inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses. After the concentrated arrival of previously postponed overseas orders, the bonded warehouse inventory is expected to increase further, while the general trade warehouse inventory inflow will significantly decrease. The downstream demand remains at a normal level of rigid demand, but the inventory inflow is still greater than the outflow, so the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area may continue to accumulate in the short term. - The production scheduling of tire maintenance enterprises in China last week returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. This week, most enterprises will maintain stable production to meet order requirements, but it is reported that some enterprises have maintenance plans in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,300 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,300 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,220 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 12,180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton. - The open interest of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 136,995 lots, a decrease of 3,402 lots; the open interest of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 68,949 lots, a decrease of 224 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 30,818 lots, an increase of 2,953 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber are - 10,386 lots, an increase of 563 lots. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 116,210 tons, a decrease of 2,010 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber are 50,703 tons, a decrease of 505 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,968 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.91 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 55.66 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.11 Thai baht/kg. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 56.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.4 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 130.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 43.8 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 23.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.46%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.2 days, an increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.05 days, an increase of 0.23 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.23%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.38%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.28%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.27%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared to September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared to 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded warehouse inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the gradual resumption of operations of maintenance enterprises, the production capacity of domestic tire enterprises is expected to increase significantly this week. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,400 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,940 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,040 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,900 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 151,771 lots, up 7,754 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 29,855 lots, down 416 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 28,163 lots, down 4,162 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 10,961 lots, up 397 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 142,940 tons, down 1,450 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 41,429 tons, up 100 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,250 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 690 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,144 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 1,104 yuan/ton, up 229 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 59.11 Thai baht/kg, up 0.64 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 55.1 Thai baht/kg, down 1.01 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 53.9 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 51.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.8 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 171 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 15.8 US dollars/ton, up 20.8 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 113,100 tons, down 8,800 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 268,400 tons, up 8,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 50.87%, down 14.85 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 55.26%, down 18.32 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.87 days, up 0.36 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.7 days, down 0.23 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.91%, down 0.7 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.99%, up 1.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.69%, up 0.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.68%, up 0.08 percentage points [2] Industry News - From October 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red area was mainly in northern and central Vietnam, and rainfall in most other areas was low, with a slightly reduced impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red area was mainly in eastern Malaysia, and rainfall in most other areas was medium - to - low, with an increased impact on tapping. In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon. In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1.05 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 8.21 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 36.62 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 13.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.78 percentage points [2] Viewpoint Summary - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather is normal and raw material supply is okay, but the purchase price has decreased slightly due to the decline in futures and spot prices. In Hainan, continuous rainfall has restricted tapping operations, and the seasonal increase in raw materials has slowed down. Affected by the decline in domestic and foreign futures and spot markets, local processing plants are cautious about increasing the purchase price of raw materials. The total inventory in Qingdao Port has decreased slightly compared with before the holiday. The bonded warehouse has seen inventory accumulation, while the general trade warehouse has seen inventory reduction. After the holiday, downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and there has been no large - scale replenishment [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber production areas are in the tapping season. In the Yunnan production area, rainfall disruptions still exist, and with strong purchasing demand from processing plants, raw material prices remain firm. In the Hainan production area, the weather is favorable for tapping operations, and raw materials are being produced normally. Although Typhoon "Hikaa" is approaching, local processing plants are not actively competing for raw materials due to average orders and profit margins. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed. The bonded warehouse is still reducing inventory, while the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overseas shipments are arriving at the port and being warehoused in a concentrated manner, and the warehousing volume at Qingdao warehouses has increased significantly and exceeded expectations. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated slightly. The domestic sales of winter tires in the semi - steel tire segment are in the concentrated production period, which still supports the overall production. However, the demand in the replacement market for all - steel tires has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face pressure in foreign trade exports. Currently, although some enterprises still face shortages, overall sales performance is below expectations, and some enterprises' inventories may increase. To relieve pressure, some enterprises may flexibly control production. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15300 - 15750, and the nr2511 contract... (The text is incomplete here) [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15620 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 75 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12465 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3155 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 153328 lots, with a daily decrease of 1131 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 54216 lots, with a daily decrease of 4506 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26821 lots, with a daily decrease of 684 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11684 lots, with a daily decrease of 75 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 155830 tons, with a daily increase of 810 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 44856 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15250 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1835 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1835 US dollars/ton, with no change. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14780 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 70 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14730 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 70 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12100 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11700 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 820 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 45 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 745 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 132 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 62 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 59.73 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.06 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 57.3 Thai baht/kg, with no change. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 55.3 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 50.45 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.1 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 151 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 7.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 11.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.88 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 26.84 million tons, with an increase of 0.89 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.66%, with a weekly increase of 0.07 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.66%, with a weekly increase of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 39.13 days, with a weekly increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.02 days, with a weekly increase of 0.08 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, with an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, with an increase of 1.09 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.06%, with a daily decrease of 1.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.41%, with a daily decrease of 0.42 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.95%, with a daily increase of 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.97%, with no change [2] 3.6 Industry News - From September 21st to September 27th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly concentrated in northern and central Vietnam, western Thailand, southern Myanmar, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas is moderate, which has an increasing impact on tapping operations. In the southern hemisphere, there are no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has a decreasing impact on tapping operations. As of September 21st, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 461,200 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory is 69,400 tons, a decrease of 5.07%; the general trade inventory is 391,800 tons, an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses has increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate has decreased by 2.91 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses has increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate has increased by 1.78 percentage points. As of September 18th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's supply is gradually increasing, with strong raw material purchase prices due to high demand from processing plants. In Hainan, local processing plants' enthusiasm for high - priced raw material procurement is average because of orders and profit performance, and new rubber supply growth is slow. [2] - Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased, with a larger - than - expected decline in bonded warehouses and a slight increase in general trade warehouses. As downstream businesses mainly replenish standard rubber, bonded warehouse inventories are expected to continue decreasing. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to stock up for the "National Day" holiday and fill previous order gaps, with overall capacity utilization fluctuating slightly. [2] - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,850 - 16,300 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,600 - 13,000 in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 16,040 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 45 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,715 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread was 5 yuan/ton. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,325 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 148,333 lots, up 739 lots; that of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 65,091 lots, down 3,874 lots. [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber were - 28,766 lots, down 4,801 lots; those of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber were - 13,669 lots, down 343 lots. [2] - Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 152,250 tons, up 2,930 tons; 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 45,561 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,150 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 890 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 845 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,287 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 572 yuan/ton, up 143 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.06 Thai baht/kg, down 0.11 Thai baht; the price of Thai rubber sheets was 57.8 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht. [2] - The price of Thai rubber latex was 56.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the price of Thai cup lump was 51 Thai baht/kg, down 0.7 Thai baht. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 158.6 US dollars/ton, down 52.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 17 US dollars/ton, down 31.4 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.59%, up 5.81 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.46%, up 5.99 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 38.83 days, down 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.94 days, up 0.09 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces. [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.92%, up 0.38 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.41%, up 0.25 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.72%, up 0.37 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.73%, up 0.39 percentage points. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From September 14th to September 20th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall areas were mainly in southern Thailand and southwestern Cambodia, which would have a greater impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, heavy rainfall areas were mainly in central and southeastern Indonesia, and the impact on tapping was reduced. [2] - As of September 14th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons or 0.95% from the previous period. Bonded area inventory was 66,200 tons, a decrease of 8.32%; general trade inventory was 520,400 tons, an increase of 0.07%. [2] - As of September 11th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port continued to decline. Both bonded and general trade warehouses showed inventory reduction, with the general trade inventory reduction rate expanding month - on - month. The inflow of overseas goods to the port remained low, the overall inflow rate decreased month - on - month, while some tire companies continued to replenish goods slightly, and the previous orders were gradually picked up, leading to an increase in the overall outflow rate month - on - month [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises stopped or reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Some all - steel tire enterprises resumed work and moderately increased production, but some enterprises still scheduled maintenance, restricting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted, with limited overall fluctuation range [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,860 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 12,665 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 1,025 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - numbered rubber was - 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber was 3,195 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 125,703 lots, up 790 lots; the position of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 54,903 lots, down 855 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 36,925 lots, up 1,705 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber was - 9,080 lots, up 439 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 180,240 tons, up 4,800 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber in the exchange were 46,166 tons, up 3,326 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai STR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian SMR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,530 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 1,110 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,175 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,853 yuan/ton, up 183 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 188 yuan/ton, up 138 yuan [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 61.96 Thai baht/kg, up 0.76 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 58.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.35 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 54 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 48.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 193 US dollars/ton, up 46 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 42 US dollars/ton, down 4.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 46.45 days, up 0.81 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying was 20.58%, up 0.08 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying was 17.47%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.79%, up 1.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.79%, up 1.11 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 10th to 16th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, which increased the impact on tapping operations. In the southern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium level, which also increased the impact on tapping operations [2]. - As of August 10th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 1.89%. The bonded area inventory was 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The inflow rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outflow rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the inflow rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outflow rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [2]. - As of August 7th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and a decrease of 9.93 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has a shortage of raw material supply and firm purchase prices, while Hainan has normal tapping operations and seasonal output. Due to the decline in futures and spot prices, the market bearish sentiment has emerged, and local processing plants are less willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, leading to a continued decline in the glue purchase price [2]. - Recently, the total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has been decreasing, with both bonded and general trade inventories showing a downward trend. The arrival and warehousing volume of overseas goods remains low, and the overall warehousing rate has decreased month - on - month. The decline in rubber prices has stimulated downstream tire enterprises to replenish goods at low prices, and the overall outbound volume has increased month - on - month [2]. - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires has declined due to some enterprises' maintenance. Although the resumption of work of maintenance enterprises this week will boost the capacity utilization rate, there are also some enterprises with maintenance plans at the beginning of the month, so the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,700 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,365 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 12,160 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 910 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - gauge rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - gauge rubber is 2,205 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 77,028 lots, a decrease of 7,311 lots; the position of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 33,716 lots, a decrease of 3,164 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,534 lots, a decrease of 2,275 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - gauge rubber is - 7,967 lots, a decrease of 1,088 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 176,640 tons, a decrease of 990 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - gauge rubber are 39,816 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,300 yuan/ton; the price of Thai Standard STR20 is 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 is 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 260 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of 20 - gauge rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,369 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 209 yuan/ton, down 127 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.9 Thai baht/kg, down 4.11 Thai baht; the market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 47.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.3 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 147 US dollars/ton, up 6.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 46.6 US dollars/ton, up 11.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.09 million tons, a decrease of 2.73 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 28.08 million tons, an increase of 5.85 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.64 days, down 0.91 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.03%, up 2.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.57%, up 1.17 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 28.92%, down 1.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 28.91%, down 1.89 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 3 - 9, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly in sporadic areas in southern Myanmar, and the precipitation in most other areas is low, reducing the impact on tapping; in the southern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly in eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is moderate, increasing the impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.35%. The bonded area inventory is 75,500 tons, a decline of 0.40%; the general trade inventory is 556,300 tons, a decline of 1.47%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 1.66 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 2.01 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points [2]. - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points [2].