1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory accumulation of natural rubber in Qingdao area has narrowed month - on - month, with a slight destocking in bonded warehouses and continuous inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses. After the concentrated arrival of previously postponed overseas orders, the bonded warehouse inventory is expected to increase further, while the general trade warehouse inventory inflow will significantly decrease. The downstream demand remains at a normal level of rigid demand, but the inventory inflow is still greater than the outflow, so the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area may continue to accumulate in the short term. - The production scheduling of tire maintenance enterprises in China last week returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. This week, most enterprises will maintain stable production to meet order requirements, but it is reported that some enterprises have maintenance plans in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,300 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,300 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,220 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 12,180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton. - The open interest of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 136,995 lots, a decrease of 3,402 lots; the open interest of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 68,949 lots, a decrease of 224 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 30,818 lots, an increase of 2,953 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber are - 10,386 lots, an increase of 563 lots. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 116,210 tons, a decrease of 2,010 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber are 50,703 tons, a decrease of 505 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,968 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.91 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 55.66 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.11 Thai baht/kg. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 56.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.4 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 130.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 43.8 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 23.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.46%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.2 days, an increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.05 days, an increase of 0.23 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.23%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.38%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.28%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.27%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared to September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared to 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded warehouse inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the gradual resumption of operations of maintenance enterprises, the production capacity of domestic tire enterprises is expected to increase significantly this week. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,400 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,940 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,040 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,900 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 151,771 lots, up 7,754 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 29,855 lots, down 416 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 28,163 lots, down 4,162 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 10,961 lots, up 397 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 142,940 tons, down 1,450 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 41,429 tons, up 100 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,250 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 690 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,144 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 1,104 yuan/ton, up 229 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 59.11 Thai baht/kg, up 0.64 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 55.1 Thai baht/kg, down 1.01 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 53.9 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 51.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.8 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 171 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 15.8 US dollars/ton, up 20.8 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 113,100 tons, down 8,800 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 268,400 tons, up 8,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 50.87%, down 14.85 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 55.26%, down 18.32 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.87 days, up 0.36 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.7 days, down 0.23 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.91%, down 0.7 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.99%, up 1.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.69%, up 0.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.68%, up 0.08 percentage points [2] Industry News - From October 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red area was mainly in northern and central Vietnam, and rainfall in most other areas was low, with a slightly reduced impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red area was mainly in eastern Malaysia, and rainfall in most other areas was medium - to - low, with an increased impact on tapping. In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon. In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1.05 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 8.21 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 36.62 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 13.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.78 percentage points [2] Viewpoint Summary - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather is normal and raw material supply is okay, but the purchase price has decreased slightly due to the decline in futures and spot prices. In Hainan, continuous rainfall has restricted tapping operations, and the seasonal increase in raw materials has slowed down. Affected by the decline in domestic and foreign futures and spot markets, local processing plants are cautious about increasing the purchase price of raw materials. The total inventory in Qingdao Port has decreased slightly compared with before the holiday. The bonded warehouse has seen inventory accumulation, while the general trade warehouse has seen inventory reduction. After the holiday, downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and there has been no large - scale replenishment [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber production areas are in the tapping season. In the Yunnan production area, rainfall disruptions still exist, and with strong purchasing demand from processing plants, raw material prices remain firm. In the Hainan production area, the weather is favorable for tapping operations, and raw materials are being produced normally. Although Typhoon "Hikaa" is approaching, local processing plants are not actively competing for raw materials due to average orders and profit margins. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed. The bonded warehouse is still reducing inventory, while the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overseas shipments are arriving at the port and being warehoused in a concentrated manner, and the warehousing volume at Qingdao warehouses has increased significantly and exceeded expectations. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated slightly. The domestic sales of winter tires in the semi - steel tire segment are in the concentrated production period, which still supports the overall production. However, the demand in the replacement market for all - steel tires has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face pressure in foreign trade exports. Currently, although some enterprises still face shortages, overall sales performance is below expectations, and some enterprises' inventories may increase. To relieve pressure, some enterprises may flexibly control production. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15300 - 15750, and the nr2511 contract... (The text is incomplete here) [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15620 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 75 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12465 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3155 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 153328 lots, with a daily decrease of 1131 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 54216 lots, with a daily decrease of 4506 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26821 lots, with a daily decrease of 684 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11684 lots, with a daily decrease of 75 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 155830 tons, with a daily increase of 810 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 44856 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15250 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1835 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1835 US dollars/ton, with no change. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14780 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 70 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14730 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 70 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12100 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11700 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 820 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 45 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 745 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 132 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 62 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 59.73 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.06 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 57.3 Thai baht/kg, with no change. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 55.3 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 50.45 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.1 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 151 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 7.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 11.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.88 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 26.84 million tons, with an increase of 0.89 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.66%, with a weekly increase of 0.07 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.66%, with a weekly increase of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 39.13 days, with a weekly increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.02 days, with a weekly increase of 0.08 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, with an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, with an increase of 1.09 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.06%, with a daily decrease of 1.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.41%, with a daily decrease of 0.42 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.95%, with a daily increase of 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.97%, with no change [2] 3.6 Industry News - From September 21st to September 27th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly concentrated in northern and central Vietnam, western Thailand, southern Myanmar, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas is moderate, which has an increasing impact on tapping operations. In the southern hemisphere, there are no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has a decreasing impact on tapping operations. As of September 21st, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 461,200 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory is 69,400 tons, a decrease of 5.07%; the general trade inventory is 391,800 tons, an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses has increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate has decreased by 2.91 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses has increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate has increased by 1.78 percentage points. As of September 18th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's supply is gradually increasing, with strong raw material purchase prices due to high demand from processing plants. In Hainan, local processing plants' enthusiasm for high - priced raw material procurement is average because of orders and profit performance, and new rubber supply growth is slow. [2] - Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased, with a larger - than - expected decline in bonded warehouses and a slight increase in general trade warehouses. As downstream businesses mainly replenish standard rubber, bonded warehouse inventories are expected to continue decreasing. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to stock up for the "National Day" holiday and fill previous order gaps, with overall capacity utilization fluctuating slightly. [2] - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,850 - 16,300 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,600 - 13,000 in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 16,040 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 45 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,715 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread was 5 yuan/ton. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,325 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 148,333 lots, up 739 lots; that of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 65,091 lots, down 3,874 lots. [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber were - 28,766 lots, down 4,801 lots; those of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber were - 13,669 lots, down 343 lots. [2] - Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 152,250 tons, up 2,930 tons; 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 45,561 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,150 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 890 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 845 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,287 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 572 yuan/ton, up 143 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.06 Thai baht/kg, down 0.11 Thai baht; the price of Thai rubber sheets was 57.8 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht. [2] - The price of Thai rubber latex was 56.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the price of Thai cup lump was 51 Thai baht/kg, down 0.7 Thai baht. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 158.6 US dollars/ton, down 52.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 17 US dollars/ton, down 31.4 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.59%, up 5.81 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.46%, up 5.99 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 38.83 days, down 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.94 days, up 0.09 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces. [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.92%, up 0.38 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.41%, up 0.25 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.72%, up 0.37 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.73%, up 0.39 percentage points. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From September 14th to September 20th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall areas were mainly in southern Thailand and southwestern Cambodia, which would have a greater impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, heavy rainfall areas were mainly in central and southeastern Indonesia, and the impact on tapping was reduced. [2] - As of September 14th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons or 0.95% from the previous period. Bonded area inventory was 66,200 tons, a decrease of 8.32%; general trade inventory was 520,400 tons, an increase of 0.07%. [2] - As of September 11th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port continued to decline. Both bonded and general trade warehouses showed inventory reduction, with the general trade inventory reduction rate expanding month - on - month. The inflow of overseas goods to the port remained low, the overall inflow rate decreased month - on - month, while some tire companies continued to replenish goods slightly, and the previous orders were gradually picked up, leading to an increase in the overall outflow rate month - on - month [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises stopped or reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Some all - steel tire enterprises resumed work and moderately increased production, but some enterprises still scheduled maintenance, restricting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted, with limited overall fluctuation range [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,860 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 12,665 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 1,025 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - numbered rubber was - 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber was 3,195 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 125,703 lots, up 790 lots; the position of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 54,903 lots, down 855 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 36,925 lots, up 1,705 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber was - 9,080 lots, up 439 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 180,240 tons, up 4,800 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber in the exchange were 46,166 tons, up 3,326 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai STR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian SMR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,530 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 1,110 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,175 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,853 yuan/ton, up 183 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 188 yuan/ton, up 138 yuan [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 61.96 Thai baht/kg, up 0.76 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 58.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.35 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 54 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 48.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 193 US dollars/ton, up 46 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 42 US dollars/ton, down 4.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 46.45 days, up 0.81 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying was 20.58%, up 0.08 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying was 17.47%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.79%, up 1.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.79%, up 1.11 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 10th to 16th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, which increased the impact on tapping operations. In the southern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium level, which also increased the impact on tapping operations [2]. - As of August 10th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 1.89%. The bonded area inventory was 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The inflow rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outflow rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the inflow rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outflow rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [2]. - As of August 7th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and a decrease of 9.93 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has a shortage of raw material supply and firm purchase prices, while Hainan has normal tapping operations and seasonal output. Due to the decline in futures and spot prices, the market bearish sentiment has emerged, and local processing plants are less willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, leading to a continued decline in the glue purchase price [2]. - Recently, the total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has been decreasing, with both bonded and general trade inventories showing a downward trend. The arrival and warehousing volume of overseas goods remains low, and the overall warehousing rate has decreased month - on - month. The decline in rubber prices has stimulated downstream tire enterprises to replenish goods at low prices, and the overall outbound volume has increased month - on - month [2]. - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires has declined due to some enterprises' maintenance. Although the resumption of work of maintenance enterprises this week will boost the capacity utilization rate, there are also some enterprises with maintenance plans at the beginning of the month, so the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,700 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,365 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 12,160 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 910 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - gauge rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - gauge rubber is 2,205 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 77,028 lots, a decrease of 7,311 lots; the position of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 33,716 lots, a decrease of 3,164 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,534 lots, a decrease of 2,275 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - gauge rubber is - 7,967 lots, a decrease of 1,088 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 176,640 tons, a decrease of 990 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - gauge rubber are 39,816 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,300 yuan/ton; the price of Thai Standard STR20 is 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 is 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 260 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of 20 - gauge rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,369 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 209 yuan/ton, down 127 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.9 Thai baht/kg, down 4.11 Thai baht; the market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 47.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.3 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 147 US dollars/ton, up 6.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 46.6 US dollars/ton, up 11.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.09 million tons, a decrease of 2.73 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 28.08 million tons, an increase of 5.85 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.64 days, down 0.91 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.03%, up 2.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.57%, up 1.17 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 28.92%, down 1.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 28.91%, down 1.89 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 3 - 9, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly in sporadic areas in southern Myanmar, and the precipitation in most other areas is low, reducing the impact on tapping; in the southern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly in eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is moderate, increasing the impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.35%. The bonded area inventory is 75,500 tons, a decline of 0.40%; the general trade inventory is 556,300 tons, a decline of 1.47%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 1.66 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 2.01 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points [2]. - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend. External shipments arriving at the port and entering storage have significantly decreased compared to the previous period, and the rise in rubber prices has boosted tire companies' willingness to replenish stocks, leading to overall outbound volumes exceeding inbound volumes [2]. - In terms of demand, the production schedules of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually increased to normal levels, driving a restorative increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, enterprise production schedules are stabilizing, and there is an expected slight increase in orders in the middle and late months, which is expected to have a small positive impact on overall production. Enterprises adjust production flexibly based on their own inventory and order situations. In the short - term, the overall operating rate is expected to have little fluctuation. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,600 - 15,250, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,895 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,750 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 9 - 1 was - 765 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spread between 20 - number rubber contracts 8 - 9 was - 35 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,145 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 2,384 lots, and that of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 716 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 5,770 lots, and those in 20 - number rubber decreased by 2,056 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 20 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber increased by 1,312 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 45 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 310 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,762 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheets was 66.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber films was 63.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup glue was 48.6 Thai baht/kg, up 0.05 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 174.6 US dollars/ton, up 44.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 32.6 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.1%, up 0.54 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.99%, up 3.07 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.85 days, up 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.18 days, up 0.42 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.39%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.81%, down 0.49 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.3%, down 0.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.29%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.28%. Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.39%, and general trade inventory decreased by 0.13% [2]. - As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The total spot inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade inventories increasing. Overseas supplies arriving at the port for storage increased month - on - month, but the moderate restocking and wait - and - see attitude of downstream tire enterprises restricted the port shipment rate. The domestic tire enterprises' capacity utilization rates varied last week. The production scheduling of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. Some full - steel tire enterprises had maintenance, dragging down the full - steel tire capacity utilization rate slightly. This week, the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and there is room for the capacity utilization rate to recover, which will boost the overall tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,200 - 14,600 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,700 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,490 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,010 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 148,650 lots, down 1,089 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 66,567 lots, up 1,192 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 24,912 lots, up 4,087 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,986 lots, up 1,272 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 187,060 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 36,389 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,350 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 150 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 215 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,470 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was - 20 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 65.29 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 61.6 Thai baht/kg, up 0.21 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 54.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) was 48.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.15 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 130.4 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 16.6 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.39%, down 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.03%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 24.05%, up 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.06%, up 0.11 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 13th to July 19th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Cambodia and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which reduced the impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. As of July 13th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, an increase of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, an increase of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 0.18 percentage points. As of July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up. Overseas shipments arriving at the port increased, but downstream tire companies' cautious replenishment limited the port's shipping rate. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies varied last week. The production of semi - steel tire companies that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire companies dragged down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires. This week, the production of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to recover, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,600 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,600 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,395 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 870 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,015 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 149,739 lots, up 1,146 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 65,375 lots, up 42,790 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 28,999 lots, down 2,443 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 10,258 lots, down 4,310 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 187,060 tons, down 1,590 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 36,792 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 155 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,439 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 59 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.29 Thai baht/kg, down 0.08 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 61.39 Thai baht/kg, down 0.61 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 54.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 48.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 130.4 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 16.6 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.55%, down 0.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.95%, down 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.95%, up 1.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.95%, up 1.61 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the first week of July 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southern Cambodia and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, with low precipitation in most other areas, reducing the impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southeastern Indonesia, with low precipitation in most other areas, increasing the impact on tapping. As of July 13, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, up 4,000 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, an increase of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.18 percentage points. As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, up 1.66 percentage points month - on - month and down 14.25 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, down 0.42 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.55 percentage points year - on - year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In Yunnan, recent weather disturbances still exist, raw material acquisition resistance remains high, and acquisition prices are firm. In Hainan, there is a lot of rainy weather, which hinders rubber tapping operations, and the increase in raw material supply on the island is slow, lower than the same period in previous years. Supported by rigid delivery demand, local processing plants maintain a state of increasing prices for raw material acquisition. Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has continued to accumulate significantly, with a slight reduction in bonded warehouses and a significant accumulation in general trade warehouses. Downstream enterprises are mainly digesting inventory. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week showed mixed trends. Individual semi-steel tire enterprises arranged production suspension due to external factors, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire enterprises. The operation of all-steel tire enterprise equipment mostly continued to be stable. Individual enterprises that had undergone maintenance earlier resumed production, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have short-term maintenance plans at the end of the month and early next month, which will have a certain impact on the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, there is still an expectation that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will decline. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,150 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,095 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 rubber contract was 12,310 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was -875 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 rubber was 60 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 rubber was 1,785 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 159,610 lots, up 4,462 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 rubber contract was 41,060 lots, down 1,940 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was -16,021 lots, up 5,488 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 rubber was -5,878 lots, up 61 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 191,820 tons, down 70 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 rubber in the exchange were 27,217 tons, up 303 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,950 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,850 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was -145 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was -85 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of 20 rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,241 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the basis of the main 20 rubber contract was -69 yuan/ton, down 127 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 66.29 Thai baht/kg, down 0.54 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 63 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of rubber latex of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 48.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.9 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 137.4 US dollars/ton, down 8.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 12.4 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.64%, up 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.05%, down 0.24 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.93 days, up 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 48.15 days, up 0.73 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18%, up 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.32%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.96%, up 0.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.96%, up 0.36 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the next week (June 29 - July 5, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber production areas in Southeast Asia will decrease slightly compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly concentrated in sporadic areas such as southern Cambodia and northern Vietnam, and in most other areas, precipitation is at a low level, and the impact on rubber tapping operations will be slightly reduced. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and in most other areas, rainfall is at a low level, and the impact on rubber tapping operations will not change much. As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, an increase of 2.40%. The bonded area inventory was 80,700 tons, a decrease of 0.62%; the general trade inventory was 551,400 tons, an increase of 2.85%. The warehousing rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 1.39 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.18 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.58 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 0.28 percentage points [2]