The US labor market grew by more than expected last month, recovering some of the damage inflicted by the federal government shutdown, according to official data.An estimated 105,000 jobs were lost in October, and 64,000 were added in November, a highly-anticipated report showed on Tuesday.Jobs growth was higher in November than anticipated by many economists, with a consensus forecast of some 40,000 jobs added.But the headline unemployment rate continued to climb – and hit 4.6%, a four-year high, last mont ...

此前美国政府停摆造成的关键经济数据断供，让市场陷入了近一个月的信息真空，交易决策缺乏明确数据，如今随 着月度就业报告、通胀数据的陆续登场，以及2026年1月初更多就业相关数据的补位，市场终于迎来了验证预期的时 刻。 与上周美联储的政策动向直接相关：在将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至3.5%-3.75%区间后，美联储主席鲍威尔在新 闻发布会上特意强调对招聘活动放缓的担忧，直接推动美债收益率从近期高点回落近15个基点。 政府停摆期间，由于缺乏官方数据支撑，市场只能依赖民间调查数据和区域联储的景气指数进行推测，导致美债市 场波动率指数一度攀升至年内次高点，单日收益率波动幅度多次超过20个基点。 交易员们为规避不确定性，纷纷调整组合久期，短端美债成交量环比激增30%。 期权市场数据显示，近期挂钩短期美债的利率看跌期权成交量暴增，部分机构甚至构建了明年一季度降息的牛市价 差策略，通过买入执行价较低的利率期权、卖出执行价较高的期权，以较低成本押注收益率下行。 有机构测算，如果本周就业数据低于预期，市场可能会将明年降息三次的概率纳入定价，届时短端美债收益率有望 跌破3.2%，期权头寸的潜在收益率可能达到150%以上。 尽管当 ...

美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）当天发布报告称，上月企业减少了3.2万个工作岗位，这是2023年3 月以来的最大降幅。上一次招聘市场如此疲软还是在疫情期间。 2025.12. 04 本文字数：1825，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 周三公布的数据显示，美国11月私营企业就业岗创下近两年半来最大降幅，主要源于小企业的岗位 流失。这也是四个月内第三次私营部门出现岗位流失的情况，表明招聘活动普遍放缓。如果趋势不发 生及时扭转，可能会推动失业率上升，并对经济造成不利影响。对于五天后的美联储会议而言，降息 的悬念可能就此终结。 就业市场降温 分部门看，当月小企业减少了12万个就业岗位，经济学家认为这是进口关税推高企业成本所致。中 型企业就业岗位增加5.1万个，大型企业则增加3.9万个。 图源：ADP.com 美国劳工统计局将于12月16日发布备受关注的11月就业报告。该报告原定于12月5日发布，因美国 此前的政府停摆而延期，报告将包含10 月的非农就业数据。但10月的失业率将永远无从知晓，由于 这场史上最长时间的政府停摆，用于核算失业率的家庭调查数据未能完成收集。美国9月失业率攀升 至 4.4%，创下四 ...

最新发布的"小非农"意外由增转减且降幅明显，反映美国就业市场的疲软程度超出预期。 近几周来，美联储决策者的观点出现分歧：一方认为降息对防止劳动力市场进一步恶化是必要措施；另一方则担心更多 降息将加剧通胀。 但同时，信息行业减少了2万人，金融业减少9000人，专业/商业服务行业减少2.6万人。 按企业规模分类，小型企业（1-49人）就业人数减少了12万人，中型企业（50-499人）增加5.1万人，大型企业（500人 以上）增加3.9万人。 ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson写道，"由于消费者谨慎消费和宏观经济环境不明朗，招聘市场一直波动不定。虽然 招聘放缓是普遍现象，但主要原因是小型企业的萎缩。" 薪资增速也有所放缓，留任员工薪资的年增速为4.4%，比10月下降0.1个百分点。 这份"小非农"报告是美联储在12月9日至10日会议前所获得的最后一份就业数据。尽管部分官员对进一步宽松表示担 忧，但市场认为美联储再次降息25个基点的概率接近90%。 周三（12月3日）美股盘前，美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）发布的数据显示，11月私营部门减少3.2万个就业岗位，上 一次出现这样降幅还是在2023年3月，市 ...

当地时间11月19日，美联储公布了10月28日至29日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪 要。会议纪要显示，决策者对12月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。 该纪要凸显美联储内部就通胀与失业哪一方对美国经济构成更大威胁存在巨大分歧，这也加大了12月利 率决策的不确定性。 中间派（包括鲍威尔、副主席杰斐逊等）则倾向观望，采取更耐心的方式进行政策调整。 传统货币政策框架要求"对症下药"——通过加息抑通胀、降息稳就业。但当前经济同时面临两方面压 力，使美联储陷入两难。激进加息可能加剧就业市场恶化，过早宽松或导致通胀再度反弹。这种"既要 抗通胀、又要保就业"的困境，被经济学家称为"轻度滞胀"。 根据最新公布的会议纪要，美联储决策层对通胀威胁的评估出现明显分化。部分与会者认为，剔除关税 因素后，当前通胀水平已接近政策目标。但更多委员强调，整体通胀率已持续超标运行，且缺乏明确证 据显示能在短期内可持续地回落至2%的目标区间。 值得关注的是，在10月底的议息会议上，尽管美联储做出了连续第二次降息25个基点的决定，但内部出 现双重异议：一位委员主张更大幅度的50个基点降息，另一位则坚持维持利率不变。这是自2019年以来 ...

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate remains volatile around 1.4008, influenced by weak U.S. private sector job growth and expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in December [1] - The U.S. ADP employment report indicates a significant decline in private sector jobs, with an average weekly decrease of 11,250 jobs, down from 14,250, reflecting a cooling labor market [1] - The Bank of Canada (BoC) has signaled a pause in further rate cuts after reducing the policy rate to 2.25% in October, with expectations that rates will remain stable until mid-2027 [1] Group 2 - The technical analysis of USD/CAD shows a narrow trading range between 1.3980 and 1.4040, with no clear directional signal, and a potential breakout above 1.4050 could lead to resistance at 1.4100 [2] - The RSI indicator is around 50, indicating a neutral market phase, and the focus remains on the impact of the BoC meeting minutes on market expectations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates for the second consecutive time to support a weak job market, but there are concerns among some officials about the potential overreach of rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The futures market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with expectations for further cuts in December and March of next year [2] - Following a 25 basis point cut in September, the Fed is anticipated to lower rates two more times by the end of the year [1][2] - Some Federal Reserve officials express concerns about the aggressive market pricing of future rate cuts, indicating a potential divergence from market expectations [2][6] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Recent consumer price index data shows that core inflation in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level in three months, but overall inflation remains stagnant, complicating the case for multiple future rate cuts [1][2] - Officials acknowledge a slowdown in hiring activity and express worries about inflation pressures stemming from non-tariff factors, including a significant drop in immigration affecting labor supply [3][4] - Inflation rates have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over four years, with expectations that it may not return to target until 2028, raising concerns about long-term inflation expectations [5][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Credibility - The current government shutdown has disrupted the release of official economic data, making it challenging for Fed officials to assess the economic landscape [6] - There is a notable divide among Fed officials regarding the economic outlook, with some calling for caution in rate cuts due to conflicting signals between strong economic growth and a weak job market [6]

Group 1 - The search volume for seasonal jobs has increased by 27% compared to last year and surged by 50% compared to 2023, indicating a significant rise in job seeker demand [1] - Employers have only increased the posting of seasonal positions by 2.7%, suggesting a scarcity of available temporary holiday jobs [1] - The current state of the seasonal hiring market reflects the overall weakness in the U.S. job market, characterized by "low hiring, low layoffs" as noted by multiple economists [1] Group 2 - The proportion of individuals holding multiple jobs has risen, with the latest data showing that 5.4% of the workforce is engaged in multiple jobs, indicating a concerning trend in the job market [1] - Retailers are expected to add fewer than 500,000 seasonal positions in the last three months of the year, marking the lowest level since 2009 [2] - Major delivery companies like UPS and FedEx have not yet announced their hiring plans for the holiday season, while Amazon plans to hire 250,000 employees, consistent with the previous two years [2]

Job Market Overview - The Carlyle Group's dashboard indicates September payroll gains at just 17,000, a decline from August, suggesting muted hiring despite stable output [2] - ADP's September report shows a drop of 32,000 in private payrolls, marking the steepest decline since 2023, with small businesses significantly affected and soft wage growth [2] - The Institute for Supply Management's services survey reveals employment shrinking for the fourth consecutive month, with more companies cutting jobs than adding them [3] Consumer Sentiment - The New York Fed's survey indicates rising consumer concerns about job loss and expectations of higher unemployment [3] - The Conference Board's indicators show fewer respondents considering jobs as "plentiful," reflecting a shift in labor market perception [3] - Goldman Sachs' measure of labor-market tightness has reverted to conditions similar to 2015, signaling potential challenges for job seekers [3] Economic Context - Despite the weak job market indicators, the stock market continues to rise, with major indexes approaching record highs [5] - There is a sense of an impending slowdown that has yet to materialize, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market [5] Employment Trends - The overall job market is characterized as disinflating rather than collapsing, with low hiring rates but no significant spike in layoffs [4] - State jobless claims remain low, indicating that widespread layoffs are not currently occurring [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is facing additional strain due to an unprecedented government shutdown, which may force the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts amid data interruptions [1][4] - The Trump administration is utilizing the government shutdown crisis to advance a second round of large-scale federal employee layoffs, with expectations of a significant reduction in federal workforce by the end of the year [1][2] - Approximately 154,000 federal employees have accepted the Deferred Resignation Plan, with about 100,000 already removed from the government payroll [2][3] Group 2 - The government shutdown is expected to temporarily lay off around 750,000 employees, with the White House indicating a move towards permanent layoffs rather than just temporary furloughs [3] - The inability to release key economic data, such as the September non-farm payroll report and CPI inflation data, complicates the Federal Reserve's policy-making process [4] - Analysts warn that the combination of private sector job losses and large-scale federal layoffs could further deteriorate the labor market, reinforcing the case for preemptive monetary easing [4]