Workflow
就业风险
icon
Search documents
凌晨重磅!美联储,降息大消息
中国基金报· 2025-10-08 23:01
【导读】 美联储会议纪要显示,即使官员降息,仍对通胀保持谨慎 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好,关注一下美联储的重磅消息。 10月9日凌晨, 美联储公布9月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要。美联储官员们在9月政策会议上表现出今年进一步降息的意愿, 但同时也因通胀风险而保持谨慎。 自9月会议以来,包括美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和米歇尔·鲍曼在内的美联储理事都提到,劳动力市场的强劲是需要降息的理由。米兰则 认为,中性利率低于普遍认知,这意味着美联储需要更快降息。特朗普及多名政府官员也引用近期数据,越来越多地呼吁美联储立即降 息。 联邦基金利率期货显示,投资者预计10月和12月大概率会降息。 纪要写道:"几乎所有接受纽约联储交易台调查的受访者都预计本次会议将把联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点,约半数受访者预计10 月会议还将进一步降息。绝大多数受访者预计到年底至少会有两次25个基点的降息,约半数预计会有三次。" | 重点内容如下。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 美联储官员在上月的政策会议上表示,今年内有意进一步降息,但出于对通胀的担忧,许多人仍保持谨慎态度。 | | | | 根据联邦公 ...
美联储杰斐逊:支持降息以平衡通胀和就业风险。
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 10:28
来源:滚动播报 美联储杰斐逊:支持降息以平衡通胀和就业风险。 ...
9月30日外盘头条:特朗普会见国会两院领导人 劳工统计局称政府关门时将暂停运作 瑞士拟投资美国...
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 21:49
来源:环球市场播报 全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有: 美国劳工统计局将在政府关门时暂停运作 既不收集也不发布数据 倘若美国政府关门,劳工统计局"将暂停所有运作",包括数据的主动收集和发布。 劳工部发布拨款中断情况下的应急计划,该计划称:"原定在拨款中断期发布的经济数据将不会发布, 如果拨款中断期延长,经济数据的发布可能会被推迟。如果在拨款中断期发生技术故障,劳工统计局网 站将不会更新内容或进行修复。" 1、美国劳工统计局将在政府关门时暂停运作 既不收集也不发布数据 2、特朗普会见国会两院领导人 万斯称"我们正走向政府关门" 3 、 瑞士据悉拟投资美国黄金精炼业 以换取特朗普下调关税 4 、Anthropic推出最新AI模型Claude Sonnet 4.5 定位 "更像同事" 5、美联储威廉姆斯:通胀风险减退 就业风险上升 6、美联储理事米兰大幅降息论未获华尔街支持 摩根大通称理据不充分 劳工部文件称:"所收集数据质量的下降可能会影响未来估算的质量。" 特朗普会见国会两院领导人 万斯称"我们正走向政府关门" "我们正走向政府关门,"万斯在特朗普与领导人的会晤结束后说。 周一,民主党和共和党高层在 ...
大有期货:‌美联储降息预期有支撑 贵金属大涨后待整理
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-25 07:07
美国总统特朗普在联合国发表演说,谴责西方大国承认巴勒斯坦国的举动;此举使得美国对盟友以色列 的坚定支持愈显孤立。 标普全球公布调查显示,美国9月综合PMI初值从前月的54.6降至53.6,制造业PMI初值从前月的53.0降 至52.0;服务业初值从前月的54.5微降至53.9,商业活动连续第二个月放缓。 【黄金期货行情表现】 9月25日,沪金主力暂报855.48元/克,跌幅达0.36%,今日沪金主力开盘价860.00元/克,截至目前最高 861.22元/克,最低852.08元/克。 【宏观消息】 美国对进口医疗设备、机器人等启动232调查,或导致针对行业的关税行动。美国正式下调对欧盟汽车 关税至15%。中国央行顾问呼吁对房地产业给予财政支持。中国发布促进服务出口措施。 美国商务部依照《贸易扩展法》第232条对进口机器人、工业机械和医疗设备启动调查,为潜在关税行 动铺路。 鲍威尔表示,"近期通胀风险偏向上行,就业风险偏向下行--这是一个具有挑战性的局面。"鲍威尔称目 前不存在重大金融稳定风险。美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼表示,美联储可能在支持就业市场方面行动迟 缓,若需求减弱、企业开始裁员,可能需要加快降息步伐。 ...
鲍威尔警告股市估值“相当高”,美股三连涨终结(附演讲全文)
华尔街见闻· 2025-09-23 23:57
美东时间23日周二,在上周美联储宣布降息后的首次公开演讲中,美联储主席鲍威尔继续为进一步降息留下空间,并暗示在有挑战的风险环境下会谨慎降息。 在问答环节, 鲍威尔警告股市估值太高 ,打压了市场情绪,引发美股大盘下挫,收盘时三大指数结束三连涨势头,纳指跌近1%。 演讲稿中, 鲍威尔再次警告,联储的双重使命——充分就业和价格稳定均面临威胁,两面的风险意味着没有毫无风险的政策路径。 假如降息幅度过大或速度 过快,可能无法有限控制高通胀、让通胀持续高于美联储2%的目标,而假如货币紧缩维持太久,则可能无谓地拖累劳动力市场。 鲍威尔指出,"短期内通胀存在上行风险,就业则存在下行风险——这是一个有挑战的局面"。在"活力不足、略显疲软的劳动力市场"形势下,就业下行的风险已 增加。正是因为就业风险增加导致风险平衡变化,上周美联储才决定降息。 对于关税,鲍威尔重申,合理的预期是, 关税对通胀将有短暂影响,只会导致一次性的价格波动。 不过,"一次性"的波动并不意味着"立即发生",可能会持续 几个季度。鲍威尔仍认为,美联储必须密切关注关税可能带来的持续性影响,称要确保关税不会演变为持续性的通胀问题。 鲍威尔本次讲话没有透露任何信息, ...
降息后 鲍威尔释放重要信号
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in balancing its dual mandate of controlling inflation and supporting employment, with recent comments from Chairman Powell indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [1][2][3]. Economic Data and Trends - Recent economic data shows a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a deceleration in job growth, leading to heightened risks in the labor market [2][5]. - Inflation has recently risen and remains at a high level, influenced by tariff news, although long-term inflation expectations are still aligned with the Fed's 2% target [2][3]. Monetary Policy Stance - Powell indicated that even after the recent rate cut of 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25%, the Fed's policy stance remains slightly restrictive [3][4]. - The Fed's policy is not on a preset path and will continue to adapt based on incoming data and evolving economic conditions [3][4]. Divergence Among Fed Officials - There are significant differences among Fed officials regarding the outlook for interest rates, with Vice Chair Bowman emphasizing the need to address labor market issues without overemphasizing inflation risks [5][6]. - Bowman expressed concerns about the Fed lagging in responding to deteriorating labor market conditions and suggested a proactive approach to policy adjustments [6]. - In contrast, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee urged caution regarding further rate cuts, citing persistent inflation above target levels [7].
美联储博斯蒂克:围绕就业风险的情绪已大幅上升。
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 14:42
美联储博斯蒂克:围绕就业风险的情绪已大幅上升。 来源:滚动播报 ...
Larry Summers on Powell: Fed Faces “Unprecedented” Inflation vs Jobs Dilemma
Youtube· 2025-09-21 12:01
Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions and Economic Projections - The Federal Reserve's recent decision aligns closely with market expectations, emphasizing the uncertainties surrounding inflation, future policy, unemployment, and the political environment [1][2] - Current monetary policy appears slightly looser than perceived, with risks leaning more towards inflation than unemployment [2][3] - Chair Powell highlighted the unusual situation of facing both inflation and employment risks simultaneously, which is not a common occurrence in economic history [3][4] Group 2: Tariffs and Inflation - The Fed's consensus suggests that tariffs may result in a one-time price increase rather than a transitory effect, indicating a permanent adjustment in prices for tariffed goods [7][9] - There is concern that the tariff-induced price increases could lead to a cycle of rising inflation expectations, higher wages, and further price increases [10][12] - The current political climate and the Fed's more politicized nature may complicate the inflation outlook, with risks of deviating from the 2% inflation target [11][12] Group 3: Corporate Reporting Changes - The administration's proposal to shift from quarterly to semiannual reporting for companies is viewed negatively, as it could undermine accountability and transparency in capital markets [17][18] - Frequent earnings reports have been crucial for the success of American capital markets, and reducing this frequency may benefit those seeking to avoid accountability [18][21] - The strength of American capital markets is attributed to their transparency and the competitive environment they foster, which could be jeopardized by the proposed changes [19][20][22]
Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian: Firings have a way of spreading through the economy
Youtube· 2025-09-18 20:53
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has cut rates and indicated more cuts are likely through the end of the year, leading to record highs in stocks and rising bond yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield briefly fell below 4% but has since risen to 4.116%, influenced by significant jobless claims data [2] - The jobless claims number represents the largest weekly decline in four years, prompting a reassessment of the Fed's rate cut projections [3] Group 2 - The Fed's decision to prioritize employment risks over inflation risks is seen as a necessary move to prevent potential job losses that could negatively impact the economy [4][5] - Despite the Fed's balanced risk assessment, there is a perception that the risks are skewed more towards employment, justifying the recent rate cuts [6] - The Fed has missed its inflation target for seven consecutive years, with inflation consistently exceeding the target by more than 50 basis points in six of those years [7][8]
铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250918
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00 - 4.25%, with dovish signals. Various assets fluctuated sharply. Domestically, A - shares oscillated and rose, expected to remain high - oscillating. The bond market was in a sensitive period, with limited configuration space [2][3]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold and silver prices pulled back and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices retreated due to the Fed's weaker - than - expected interest - rate cut and are expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices adjusted. The fundamentals remained stable, and the adjustment was expected to be limited [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize and repair after the interest - rate cut, but the upward space depends on the arrival of the consumption peak season [10][11]. - Lead prices oscillated horizontally due to the intertwining of long and short factors [12]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the market digests the Fed's signals [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate strongly with the improvement of demand expectations [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated, waiting for policy implementation to boost prices [17]. - Nickel prices oscillated. The macro boost was limited, but the relatively loose monetary environment was still positive [18][19]. - Oil prices oscillated due to fluctuating geopolitical risks and limited impact from the Fed's interest - rate cut [20][21]. - For soda ash and glass, attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the glass - soda ash price difference, while being vigilant about the pressure of high soda ash inventory [22]. - Steel prices oscillated after the Fed's interest - rate cut, with limited changes in fundamentals [23][24]. - Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded, with strong spot prices and expected support from restocking [25]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and declined, influenced by Sino - US news, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [26][27]. - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and uncertain US biodiesel policies [28][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of main futures markets for various metals, including contract names, closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interest, and price units [30]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, on September 17, SHFE copper and LME copper prices both declined, with changes in inventory, spot quotes, and other data [31]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel prices fell on September 17, and LME nickel prices remained unchanged, with corresponding changes in inventory and other data [31]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc prices rose slightly on September 17, and LME zinc prices fell, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For lead, SHFE lead prices rose on September 17, and LME lead prices fell slightly, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum prices fell on September 17, and LME aluminum prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina prices fell on September 17, and the national average spot price also decreased [34]. - For tin, SHFE tin prices fell on September 17, and LME tin prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For precious metals, there were changes in prices, inventory, and other data of gold and silver in different markets on September 17 [34]. - For other varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and agricultural products, there were corresponding price and data changes on September 17 [36][38].