Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] Core View of the Report - The urea price is expected to oscillate within the range of 1830 - 1930 yuan/ton due to complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East, high - volatility of international crude oil, temporary shutdown of some urea production facilities in the Middle East, cautious mid - downstream purchasing at high prices, suspension of exports and release of reserve supplies [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 dropped 17 yuan to 1874 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1860 yuan/ton. The long - position decreased by 12709 lots to 262,000 lots, and the short - position decreased by 12692 lots to 297,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 209,000 tons, 1000 tons less than the previous working day and 12,000 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 88.9%, 1.2% higher than 87.7% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 700,500 tons, 108,400 tons less than the previous period, a 13.40% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 169,000 tons, a 2000 - ton month - on - month increase [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 51.2%, a 1.2% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 59.3%, a 5.9% month - on - month increase [1] - India's RCF urea import tender: The latest shipping date is March 31. It received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons [1] - Urea exports: In January 2026, urea exports were 307,900 tons, a 10.61% month - on - month increase; the average export price was 397.50 dollars/ton, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease. In February 2026, exports were 111,500 tons, a 63.78% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 398.52 dollars/ton, a 0.26% month - on - month increase [1] - International oil prices: NYMEX crude oil futures contract 05 dropped 1.50 dollars/barrel to 101.38 dollars/barrel, a 1.46% month - on - month decrease; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 05 rose 5.57 dollars/barrel to 118.35 dollars/barrel, a 4.94% month - on - month increase. China's INE crude oil futures contract 2605 dropped 13.7 to 749.3 yuan/barrel, and dropped 55.4 to 693.9 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is complex and changeable, leading to high - volatility of international crude oil. Some urea production facilities in the Middle East have shut down temporarily, causing overseas urea prices to rise sharply. Mid - downstream buyers are cautious about purchasing at high prices, while upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports have been urgently suspended, and reserve supplies have been released into the market [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market showed a narrow and upward trend. The average price in Shandong remained flat week-on-week, but the international urea price rose sharply due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, driving up the domestic futures price [8]. - In the near future, domestic urea production has slightly decreased, and the output is expected to fluctuate little. Agricultural demand has decreased, but some dealers have replenished their stocks. The开工 rate of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the industrial consumption of urea has risen. The inventory of urea enterprises has declined, and the de-stocking trend is expected to continue in the short term [8]. - Affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the international price is at a high level, and the domestic urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the factory quotes are relatively stable due to the guidance price [8]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1950 in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market fluctuated narrowly and strongly. By Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong was 1840 yuan/ton, with the average price unchanged week - on - week. Most urea factory quotes reached the guidance price level and remained stable. The international price increase due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East drove up the domestic futures price [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic urea production may fluctuate slightly. Agricultural demand has decreased, but dealers' replenishment and increased industrial consumption from compound fertilizer plants are observed. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue. The domestic market will fluctuate strongly, but factory quotes will be stable due to the guidance price [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1850 and 1950 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract rose by 3.22% this week [11]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of March 13, the UR 5 - 9 spread was - 23 [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 13, there were 8055 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 5195 compared with last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Price**: As of March 12, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1890 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1890 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [26]. - **Foreign Price**: As of March 12, the FOB price of Chinese urea was 565 US dollars/ton, an increase of 84 US dollars/ton compared with last week [30]. - **Basis**: As of March 12, the urea basis was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton compared with last week [34]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Coal Price**: As of March 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 690 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [38]. - **Natural Gas Price**: As of March 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [38]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of March 12, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 153.76 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%; the capacity utilization rate was 93.29%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous period [40]. - **Inventory**: As of March 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 18.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons, a decrease of 0.53% week - on - week. As of March 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 95.76 tons, a decrease of 14.05 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.79% [44]. - **Export**: In December 2025, urea exports were 27.83 tons, a decrease of 53.75% month - on - month [47]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 45.56%, an increase of 8.54 percentage points from the previous period. The开工 rate is expected to continue to rise in the next period [52]. - **Melamine**: As of March 12, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 53.35%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from last week [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoint - The short - term urea price will oscillate within the range and tend to be strong, with the reference range of the 05 contract being 1740 - 1840. It is recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 rose by 12 yuan to 1788 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area rose by 30 yuan to 1790 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, the long positions increased by 8,530 lots to 261,000 lots, and the short positions increased by 10,680 lots to 276,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: The daily output of the urea industry is 211,100 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and an increase of 16,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The current operating rate is 89.66%, a 2.65% increase compared with 87.01% in the same period last year [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 918,500 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.79%. The sample inventory at urea ports is 134,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 41.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%, and the operating rate of melamine is 66.4%, a month - on - month increase of 2.8% [1] - **Tendering**: India RCF issued a urea import tender, with an intention of 1.5 million tons (700,000 on the east coast and 800,000 on the west coast). The tender will be opened on February 18, with an effective period until February 28 and the latest shipping date of March 31 [1] - **Import and Export in December 2025**: Urea imports were 35.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82.11%; the import average price was 2,963.69 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 52.11%. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53.75%; the export average price was 398.27 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56.64% [1] - **Oil Price**: Due to concerns about the uncertainty of the US - Iran relationship and the potential supply risk remaining unresolved, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract rose 0.81 US dollars/barrel to 64.36 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.27%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 04 contract rose 0.99 US dollars/barrel to 69.04 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.45%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 0.3 to 466 yuan/barrel, and rose 9.2 to 475.2 yuan/barrel in the night session [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The urea enterprise inventory continued to decline slightly last week, and the factory transactions improved over the weekend. The lowest ex - factory price of mainstream urea factories yesterday was 1720 - 1750 yuan/ton. The new Indian tender is beneficial to the international market, so the short - term urea price will oscillate within the range and tend to be strong [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the urea market by Ruida Futures Research Institute, covering the week up to February 6, 2026 [2] - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1750 - 1800 yuan in the short - term [6] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - The domestic urea market had a narrow - range fluctuation this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong rose to 1750 - 1800 yuan/ton, with the average price up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] - Some previously shut - down plants resumed production, increasing domestic urea output. Next week, 4 - 5 shut - down plants may resume, and the output increase is expected to expand [7] - Agricultural demand continued to advance, and pre - holiday reserve demand from terminals and trading enterprises increased. Industrial demand maintained rigid procurement. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers increased this week but may decline as the Spring Festival approaches [7] - Domestic urea enterprise inventories decreased slightly this week. As the Spring Festival approaches, inventories may rise, weakening support for the urea market [7] Group 3: Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.78% [12] - As of February 6, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 38 [14] - As of February 6, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 10,860, a decrease of 1,830 from last week [22] Group 4: Spot Market - As of February 5, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [28] - As of February 5, the FOB price of urea in China was 422.5 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars/ton from last week [32] - As of February 5, the urea basis was 2 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from last week [36] Group 5: Upstream Market - As of February 4, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week [40] - As of February 5, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.52 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.35 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [40] Group 6: Industry Situation - As of February 4, China's urea production was 1.4692 million tons, up 14,310 tons (0.98% week - on - week), and the capacity utilization rate was 89.14%, up 0.87% [43] - As of February 4, China's urea port inventory was 165,000 tons, up 21,000 tons (14.58% week - on - week), and enterprise inventory was 918,500 tons, down 26,300 tons (2.79% week - on - week) [46] - In December 2025, urea exports were 278,300 tons, down 53.75% month - on - month [49] Group 7: Downstream Market - As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.79%, up 0.45 percentage points week - on - week, and is expected to decline in the next period [54] - As of February 4, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.95%, down 8.5 percentage points from last week [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1770 - 1830 in the short - term [6] - The domestic urea market showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week, with the average price in Shandong rising by 45 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] - The recovery of some previously overhauled devices has led to an increase in domestic urea production, and the output is expected to increase slightly next week [7] - The pre - Spring Festival agricultural fertilizer demand in some areas is ongoing but with limited growth, and industrial demand's support for urea has weakened [7] - The domestic urea enterprise inventory has little change, and there is still a slight upward trend before the Spring Festival [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1770 and 1830 in the short - term [6] - Market review: The domestic urea market rose first and then fell this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong reached 1740 - 1780 yuan/ton, with the average price up 45 yuan/ton week - on - week. Urea factories received orders smoothly, and downstream follow - up was okay [7] - Market outlook: Production is expected to increase slightly. Agricultural demand has limited growth, and industrial demand support has weakened. Inventory has a slight upward trend before the Spring Festival [7] 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 0.11% [11] - Inter - delivery spread: As of January 30, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 25 [13] - Position analysis: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content - Warehouse receipt trend: As of January 29, there were 12699 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 575 from last week [21] 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic price trend: As of January 29, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton, up 30; in Jiangsu, it was 1790 yuan/ton, up 40 [26] - Foreign price trend: As of January 29, the FOB price of urea in China was 420 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton from last week [30] - Basis trend: As of January 29, the urea basis was - 37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3.4. Upstream Situation - Coal and natural gas prices: As of January 28, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of January 29, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.88 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 1.48 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] 3.5. Industry Situation - Capacity utilization and output: As of January 29, China's urea production was 145.49 tons, up 3.11 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.18%. The capacity utilization rate was 88.27%, up 1.88% from the previous period [42] - Inventory: As of January 29, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 14.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.46%. As of January 28, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 94.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12% [45] - Export situation: In December 2025, urea exports were 27.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53.75% [48] 3.6. Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer and melamine: As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62 percentage points. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 66.45%, an increase of 2.80 percentage points from last week [51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The domestic supply - demand situation of urea remains loose. Although urea exports are advancing, the recent market still has a downward trend. The main factors are the significant decline in agricultural demand, high - level urea supply, few maintenance enterprises, and the impact of production - limit notices in some areas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The price of coking coal is 500.00, unchanged from the previous period; the price of anthracite small pieces is 920.00, unchanged; the price of natural gas is 3870.00, an increase of 20.00 compared to the previous period [1] Price - In different regions, the prices in Henan, Anhui, and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1740.00, 1750.00, and 1610.00 respectively. The price in Hebei increased by 10.00 to 1760.00, and the price in Shandong remained at 1750.00. The China FOB price increased by 10.00 to 420.00, the Middle East FOB price increased by 5.00 to 402.00, the Southeast Asia CFR price increased by 25.00 to 460.00, and the Brazil CFR price increased by 5.00 to 432.50 [1] Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory remained unchanged at 94.60, 13.40, and 11830.00 respectively [1] Supply - The 10 - day production volume remained at 205090.00, the overall start - up rate remained at 87.10, the coal - based start - up rate remained at 95.30, and the gas - based start - up rate remained at 54.07 [1] Demand - The pending orders remained at 5.88, the compound fertilizer start - up rate remained at 42.96, the melamine start - up rate remained at 63.65, and the formaldehyde start - up rate remained at 35.68 [1] Profit - The profit of fixed - bed remained at - 181.00, the profit of coal - water slurry remained at 244.00, and the profit of natural gas remained at - 238.00. The price of liquid ammonia decreased by 10.00 to 2090.00 [1] Related Products - The price of compound fertilizer remained at 2630.00, the price of melamine remained at 5250.00, and the price of methanol decreased by 5.00 to 2015.00 [1] Futures - The settlement price increased by 6.00 to 1793.00, the basis decreased by 3.00 to - 51.00, the trading volume decreased by 845.00 to 6114231.00, the open interest increased by 106.00 to 246466.00, and the warehouse receipt volume remained at 13274.00 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is experiencing weak consolidation, with slight price rebounds observed in some factories, but overall demand remains low, primarily driven by downstream replenishment [1][12]. Price Aspects - The domestic urea market saw limited price fluctuations last week, with factory prices in various regions: Northern factories (excluding Shanxi, Northeast, and Northwest) priced at 1680-1720 CNY per ton; Shanxi at around 1610 CNY; Xinjiang prices declining to 1310-1530 CNY; Jiangsu and Anhui at 1700-1800 CNY; and Guangxi and Guangdong at 1830-1870 CNY, down by 10 CNY from the previous week [2][13]. - The average factory price for domestic urea was 1700 CNY, lower than the same period in 2022-2024 but slightly higher than in 2025 [2][13]. Futures Market - The domestic urea futures market experienced minor fluctuations, influenced by broader market trends and export rumors, with the main contract price ranging from 1756 to 1793 CNY as of January 23 [3][12]. Raw Material Aspects - The price of anthracite coal increased, with high operating rates in coal mines, although some mines faced production challenges. The price for small washed anthracite coal in Shanxi reached 880-930 CNY, up by 30 CNY from the previous week [4][12]. Supply Aspects - Domestic urea production increased to an average of 20.3 million tons per day, with an operating rate of approximately 86.1%. As of January 23, production was about 20.53 million tons [5][14]. Demand Aspects - Industrial demand showed slight improvement, with the compound fertilizer factory operating rate rising to 43.18%, up by 1.97% from the previous week and 8.4% year-on-year. However, agricultural demand remained weak, with some regions seeing increased winter fertilizer needs [6][14]. Inventory and Port Storage - Domestic urea factory inventories decreased to approximately 93.2 million tons, down by 3.9 million tons from the previous week and 53.1 million tons year-on-year. Port storage was about 134,000 tons, down from 152,000 tons last year [7][15]. International Market - International urea prices continued to rise, with North African exports increasing. Egypt's large granular urea reached 470 USD FOB, and Algeria's price rose to 475 USD FOB. Limited export supplies from Iran and China are expected to support price increases [8][16]. - India's urea sales reached a record 5.76 million tons in December 2025, with expectations for 4.4 million tons in January 2026, down from 4.56 million tons year-on-year. Indian urea inventories are declining, prompting expectations for new import tenders in February [8][16]. Future Market Outlook - The international urea market is expected to remain positive, supported by declining inventories in India and anticipated demand from Australia, Thailand, and Europe. Domestic market conditions are expected to fluctuate, with limited positive expectations on the supply and demand side as the Chinese New Year approaches [10][19].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The urea price is expected to oscillate, with the 05 contract reference range between 1720 - 1820 yuan/ton. The market is advised to take a wait - and - see approach [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 dropped 26 yuan to 1772 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area fell 10 yuan to 1760 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 4882 lots to 238,400 lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 5056 lots to 255,200 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily urea production in the industry is 202,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous workday and 279,000 tons more than the same period last year. The current开工率 is 85.8%, a 4.5% increase from 81.2% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from last week, a 3.53% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 134,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,000 tons [1] - Demand: The compound fertilizer开工率 is 40.1%, a month - on - month increase of 2.9%, and the melamine开工率 is 54.3%, a month - on - month increase of 6.7% [1] - Tender: On January 2nd, India's NFL held a urea import tender, receiving 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, including 1.59 million tons on the east coast and 2.02 million tons on the west coast. The lowest bids were from Koch, at CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast [1] - Import and Export: In November 2025, urea imports were 197.77 tons, a 135.71% month - on - month increase; the average import price was 1107.41 dollars/ton, a 278.44% month - on - month increase. In the same month, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a 49.95% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 424.76 dollars/ton, a 50.80% month - on - month decrease [1] - Oil Price: Geopolitical tensions in Iran and other regions have eased, reducing potential supply risks and causing international oil prices to fall. The NYMEX crude oil futures were closed for the US Martin Luther King Memorial Day holiday with no settlement price. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract fell 0.19 dollars to 63.94 dollars/barrel, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 2.9 to 442.6 yuan/barrel, and then fell 2.3 to 440.3 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - Last week, the urea enterprise inventory dropped below 1 million tons. The lowest factory - gate price of mainstream urea factories yesterday was between 1690 - 1700 yuan/ton. New orders for urea factories have significantly weakened this week, but most prices remain stable due to the support of pending orders. Market transaction resistance has increased, leading to the oscillation of urea prices [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to take a wait - and - see approach [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply of urea is expected to increase as maintenance devices have复产 plans and daily output is set to rise, but demand remains supported. With agricultural fertilizer procurement and increased raw - material replenishment in the compound fertilizer industry, and the inventory level of urea enterprises being low compared to the same period last year, the price of urea will fluctuate within the range of 1,730 - 1,830 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea futures prices continued to rise at the beginning of the week and declined slightly at the end. On January 16, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1,791 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.79% increase. The spot price in the Henan market averaged 1,744 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.81% increase [4][7]. - The basis of the main urea contract weakened first and then strengthened. On January 16, the main basis in the Henan market was - 47 yuan/ton, with a weekly range of (-86) - (-47) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of urea fluctuated narrowly, at 28 yuan/ton on January 16, with a weekly range of 20 - 30 yuan/ton [4][11]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of urea in China was 83.59%, down 1.15 percentage points from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 54.18%, up 2.61 percentage points from the previous week. The daily output of urea was 20.07 tons. Some devices in Xinjiang, Shandong, Yunnan, and Henan were under maintenance or reduced production, while some in Sichuan and Xinjiang resumed production. Maintenance devices in Gansu, Yunnan, and Sichuan are planned to resume next week, indicating an expected increase in supply [4][13]. - **Cost**: The price of anthracite coal was slightly stronger. As of January 15, the含税 price of washed anthracite small lumps in Jincheng, Shanxi (S0.4 - 0.5) was 850 - 900 yuan/ton, with the closing - price center up 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [4][17]. - **Profit**: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 0.33%, and that of gas - based urea was - 10.64%. The mainstream price of the urea market increased, leading to an increase in production profit [17]. - **Demand**: - The average advance receipt of major urea producers was 5.9 days, and the weekly sales - to - production ratio of urea enterprises was 98.8%. Agricultural demand was mainly for reserve procurement, and industrial demand was stable overall [18][19]. - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 40.08%, up 2.91 percentage points from the previous week. The inventory of compound fertilizers was 71.18 tons, up 1.66 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer market was in the stage of concentrated winter - storage fertilizer sales, and raw - material inventory was replenished at appropriate prices [4][23]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 54.29%, up 3.08 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 29,000 tons. Although a device of Shandong Heli Tai had a temporary short - stop maintenance and Hubei Huaqiang resumed production, the overall operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises is expected to continue to increase next week [26]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, weakening the demand support for the panel market [27]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 84 tons, down 29,000 tons from the previous week and 69 tons less than the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 27.2 tons, down 6,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 13,355, totaling 267,100 tons, an increase of 4,280 receipts (85,600 tons) compared to the same period last year [4][30]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer enterprises, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal - price fluctuations [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong remained unchanged compared to last week. As the urea price rises, downstream follow - up has slowed down [6]. - Some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, increasing domestic urea production. Next week, no enterprise devices are planned to stop, and 3 - 5 stopped devices may resume. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the change in production is expected to be limited [6]. - The agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, with only limited follow - up in the reserve demand for green - turning fertilizers in some local areas. The industrial sector maintains rigid - demand procurement, and the continuous progress of the compound fertilizer industry provides support for urea. Some urea enterprises have balanced production and sales, and some have accelerated their shipment speed. However, as the price rises, the downstream chasing trend may slow down, and the short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1830 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market had a narrow - range fluctuation this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong was 1720 - 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. Downstream follow - up slowed as the price rose [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Production is expected to change little due to resumed devices and possible short - term failures. Agricultural demand is in the off - season with limited increase, and industrial demand maintains rigid procurement. The compound fertilizer industry supports urea. Some enterprises' inventory decreased this week, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1830 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.79% [12]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of January 16, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 28 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated further in the provided content. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 16, there were 13355 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 505 compared to last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of January 15, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1760 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu it was 1770 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of January 15, the FOB China price of urea was 402.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.5 US dollars/ton compared to last week [30]. - **Basis**: As of January 15, the urea basis was - 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton compared to last week [35]. 3.4 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of January 14, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton (unchanged). As of January 15, the NYMEX natural gas closed at 3.14 US dollars/million British thermal units (unchanged) [38]. - **Industry**: As of January 15, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 140.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 tons (2.44%), and the capacity utilization rate was 85.25%, a week - on - week increase of 2.03%. As of January 15, the port sample inventory was 13.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons (4.29%). As of January 14, the total enterprise inventory was 98.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.61 tons (3.53%). In November 2025, urea exports were 60.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.95% [41][44][47]. - **Downstream**: As of January 15, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.08%, a week - on - week increase of 2.91 percentage points, and is expected to remain stable with a narrow - range increase. As of January 15, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 62.18%, a week - on - week increase of 7.83 percentage points [52].