2025年第49周(20251204-1210)，中国尿素分原料产能利用率：煤制尿素89.61%，环比涨2.91%；气制尿素55.23%，环比跌9.89%。 机构观点 银河期货：短期来看，国内需求平稳，农需刚性，复合肥开工环比走高，现货市场情绪尚可。国内外价差依旧偏大，新配额发放，但印标落地， 国际市场对国内影响偏弱。当前，主流交割区出厂价格1650-1680元/吨附近，下游接受大幅降温，复合肥厂开工率虽提升，但高价抵制，淡储企 业采购过半，东北地区冬储阶段性告一段落，厂家待发消耗，部分地区待发告罄，部分厂家大幅降价至1620元/吨，收单尚可，成交改善，其余高 价地区成交依旧疲软，昨日市场消息称磷肥管控趋紧，情绪上对尿素有一定影响，短期内预计尿素弱势运行为主。中期来看，第四批出口配额影 响消退，国内复合肥原料采购收尾，淡储完成大半任务，整体需求偏弱尿素基本面仍显宽松，中期看仍偏弱运行为主。不过需重点关注政策层面 变化。 光大期货：整体来看，当前尿素市场驱动不足，短期情绪相对偏弱。关注日产变化、现货成交节奏、出口政策动态。 11月12日，尿素期货主力合约小幅收跌1.22%，报1625.00元/吨。 【消息面汇总 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 2 日星期二 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 20 加 | 周一尿素主力合约 2601 价格下跌 3 元至 1675 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 元至 1680 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 5655 手至 21.29 万手，空头持仓增 541 手至 23.38 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.9 万吨，较上一工作日-0.44；较去年同期增加 1.45 万吨；今日开工率 82.28%，较去年同期 81.6%提升 0.67%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 136.39 万吨，减少 7.33 万吨，环比减少 5.10%。 尿素港口样本库存量 10 万吨，环比持平。 | | 能源与化 | ...

南华期货尿素产业周报 在政策保供与生产利润修复的支撑下，尿素日产预计将维持高位，高供应对价格构成显著压力。然而出口 政策的适时、连续调节，持续为基本面泄压，从而削弱了价格的下行驱动强度。在出口政策调控背景下，短 期现货价格受到明显支撑，业内情绪有提升，短线国内尿素行情稳中偏强。由于目前东北地区已经连续补库 两周，复合肥工厂及贸易商追高意愿逐步减弱，但尿素显性库存连续去库，基本面对价格形成支撑。总体而 言，尿素市场处于基本面与政策的区间内。短期其下行空间受到有力支撑，但上方同样承压，预计将延续震 荡走势。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 2 4 6 | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 23/12 | 24/04 | 24/08 | 24/12 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 28 日星期四 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 早盘提示 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 20 加 | 【行情复盘】 周四尿素主力合约 2601 价格上涨 19 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market has shown a trend of initial decline followed by a rise in November, contrasting with the futures price which has experienced a rise followed by a decline [1] Group 1: Market Trends - As of November 11, the average price of urea in the domestic market was 1644.45 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.11% from the previous working day [1] - The urea futures market has seen the main contract price decline for three consecutive trading days, although it still maintains an increase of over 1% for the month [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - The average daily production of urea in China has reached approximately 200,000 tons in November, marking an increase of 11.1% compared to the same period last year [2] - As of November 6, the inventory of urea production enterprises in China was 1.342 million tons, which is a decrease of about 3.9% compared to the previous month but an increase of approximately 9.9% year-on-year [1][2] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Currently, the demand is primarily driven by agricultural reserve fertilizer procurement, with industrial demand supported by higher operational rates of compound fertilizer enterprises, which have reached nearly 40% [2] - Despite being in the agricultural off-season, there is still support for future demand due to reserve needs, leading to a competitive supply-demand dynamic [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic demand for urea is weak, and the supply remains high with few maintenance enterprises and less urea flow, leading to an increase in enterprise inventory. Although urea exports are advancing, the domestic supply - demand situation has not reversed, and the market still has a downward trend. The overall market is in a state of oscillation, with macro and cost factors being positive, while weak domestic demand is negative [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cost - The prices of coking coal, anthracite small pieces, and natural gas remained unchanged on November 6, 2025, compared to the previous day, at 465.00, 920.00, and 4130.00 respectively [1]. Price - On November 6, 2025, the prices in regions such as Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Shanxi remained unchanged, while Shandong increased by 10.00 to 1570.00. International prices including China FOB, Middle East FOB, Southeast Asia CFR, and Brazil CFR also remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged on November 6, 2025, at 155.43, 11.00, and 14500.00 respectively [1]. Supply - On November 6, 2025, the daily output was 196,680.00, an increase of 7,920.00 from the previous day, and the overall start - up rate was 84.07%, an increase of 3.39 percentage points [1]. Demand - The start - up rates of compound fertilizer, melamine, formaldehyde, etc. remained unchanged on November 6, 2025 [1]. Profit - The profits of fixed - bed, coal - water slurry, and natural gas remained unchanged on November 6, 2025, at - 317.00, 104.00, and - 292.00 respectively [1]. Related Products - The price of liquid ammonia increased by 20.00 to 2050.00 on November 6, 2025, while the prices of compound fertilizer, melamine, and methanol were 2450.00, 5020.00, and 2015.00 respectively, with compound fertilizer remaining unchanged, and melamine remaining unchanged, and methanol increasing by 5.00 [1]. Futures - On November 6, 2025, the settlement price was 1640.00, a decrease of 8.00 from the previous day; the basis was - 74.00, a decrease of 11.00; the trading volume decreased by 6582.00 to 148,885.00, and the open interest increased by 2887.00 to 275,142.00 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Report's Core View - The report indicates that although urea exports are progressing, the domestic supply - demand situation remains loose, and the market is expected to continue its downward trend in the near term. It also suggests a neutral view on the overall market, with macro and cost factors being positive, while weak domestic demand is negative [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The prices of coking coal, anthracite small pieces remained unchanged at 465.00 and 920.00 respectively, while the price of natural gas decreased by 100.00 to 4200.00 [1]. Price - The prices in most regions, such as Henan, Hebei, and Anhui, remained stable. Shandong's price increased by 10.00 to 1560.00. International prices including China FOB, Middle East FOB, etc., also remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged at 155.43, 11.00, and 14500.00 respectively [1]. Supply - Daily production, overall开工率, coal - based and gas - based开工率, and待发订单 all remained unchanged, with开工率 at 80.69, coal - based at 82.61, and gas - based at 72.79 [1]. Demand - The开工率 of compound fertilizers, melamine, and formaldehyde remained unchanged at 31.04, 49.98, and 40.74 respectively [1]. Profit - The profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and natural gas remained unchanged at - 317.00, 104.00, and - 292.00 respectively [1]. Related Products - The prices of liquid ammonia and compound fertilizers remained unchanged at 2000.00 and 2450.00 respectively. The prices of melamine and methanol decreased by 30.00 and 20.00 to 5020.00 and 2030.00 respectively [1]. Futures - The结算价 increased by 8.00 to 1625.00, the基差 increased by 3.00 to - 60.00, the涨跌幅 was 0.49, the成交量 decreased by 19168.00 to 140396.00, the持仓量 increased by 2518.00 to 272271.00, and the仓車量 increased by 2445.00 to 3900.00 [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report views the urea market as overall volatile, with macro and cost factors being positive, while weak domestic demand is negative [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Cost - The price of anthracite small pieces is 920.00, with a change of 30.00; natural gas price is 4300.00, up 200.00 from the previous value [1] Price - In domestic regions, the price in Hebei is 1620.00 (up 30.00), Henan is 1580.00 (up 20.00), Shandong is 1610.00 (up 40.00), Anhui is 1580.00 (up 20.00), and Shanxi is 1500.00 (unchanged). The China FOB price is 380.00 (down 10.00), the Middle - East FOB price is 335.00 (down 2.00), the Southeast Asia CFR price is 419.00 (down 1.00), and the Brazil CFR price is 410.00 (down 12.50) [1] Supply and Demand - The industrial compound fertilizer start - up rate is gradually increasing this week, but agricultural demand has decreased significantly. Urea supply remains high, with few maintenance enterprises and less urea flow, leading to an increase in enterprise inventory [1] Inventory - Factory inventory is 163.02 (unchanged), port inventory is 21.00 (up 21.00), and downstream sample inventory is 12000.00 (unchanged) [1] Start - up Rate - The overall urea start - up rate is 79.06 (unchanged), coal - based start - up rate is 80.67 (unchanged), gas - based start - up rate is 67.56 (unchanged), compound fertilizer start - up rate is 27.71 (unchanged), melamine start - up rate is 48.30 (unchanged), and formaldehyde start - up rate is 39.30 (unchanged) [1] Profit - The profit of fixed - bed is - 347.00 (unchanged), water - coal slurry is 58.00 (unchanged), and natural gas is - 291.00 (unchanged) [1] Associated Products - The price of liquid ammonia is 2000.00 (unchanged), compound fertilizer is 2450.00 (unchanged), melamine is 5050.00 (unchanged), and methanol is 2120.00 (unchanged) [1] Futures - The settlement price is 1641.00 (up 1.00), the basis is - 50.00 (down 72.00), the futures volume is 105069.00 (down 45897.00), and the open interest is 281954.00 (down 4384.00) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea start - up rate rebounded before the holiday. The agricultural sector is still in the off - season, and industrial demand is rising slowly. Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory, and factory orders during the holiday were average. With the new round of bidding announced by India's RCF, the urea price is oscillating weakly, with a reference range of 1620 - 1720 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for now [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On September 30, the price of the urea main contract 2601 rose 13 yuan to 1670 yuan/ton, while the spot price in the central China's mainstream area dropped 20 yuan to 1590 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 7588 lots to 184,100 lots, and short positions decreased by 7400 lots to 226,600 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: The daily urea production in the industry is 199,400 tons, 1000 tons less than the previous working day. The current start - up rate is 85.2%, 0.08% higher than 85.13% of the same period last year [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.2182 million tons, an increase of 52,900 tons or 4.54% from last week. The sample inventory at urea ports is 496,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous period [1] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of compound fertilizers is 35.2%, a decrease of 3.3% from the previous period, and the start - up rate of melamine is 56.7%, an increase of 1.4% from the previous period [1] - **Tendering**: India's RCF announced a urea import tender, with the bid closing on October 15, offer validity until October 30, and the latest shipping date on December 10 [1] - **Economic Outlook**: The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the forecast in June this year, and will slow down to 2.9% in 2026, the same as the June forecast [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Before the holiday, the domestic urea start - up rate rebounded. The agricultural sector is in the off - season, and industrial demand is rising slowly. Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory, and factory orders during the holiday were average. With the new round of bidding announced by India's RCF, the urea price is oscillating weakly [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for now [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - This is a weekly report on the urea market from the Ruida Futures Research Institute dated September 5, 2025 [2] - The report includes sections on weekly highlights, futures and spot markets, and industrial chain analysis [4] Group 2: Weekly Highlights - The domestic urea market continued to fluctuate at a low level this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong dropped to 1650 - 1700 yuan/ton, with an average price down 5 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - Some new plants are under maintenance, and no shut - down plants have resumed. Domestic urea daily output has decreased. Next week, 3 enterprises plan to shut down, and 2 - 4 shut - down enterprises will resume production. Output changes will be limited [6] - Domestic agricultural demand is in the seasonal off - season, with a slight increase in fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui. Industrial compound fertilizer has a certain stock of raw materials, so short - term replenishment of urea may decline. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer will gradually recover [6] - Domestic demand is advancing slowly, and some enterprises' shipments are below expectations. This week, domestic urea enterprise inventories varied, with the overall inventory level increasing slightly. After major events, downstream industrial开工 is expected to increase, and with phased urea exports, enterprise inventories are likely to decline [6] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan in the short term [6] Group 3: Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.89% [10] - As of September 5, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 43 [12] - As of September 4, there were 7928 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 1455 from last week [20] Group 4: Spot Market - As of September 4, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [26] - As of September 4, the FOB price of urea in China was 435 US dollars/ton, down 12.5 US dollars/ton from last week [30] - As of September 4, the urea basis was - 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton from last week [34] Group 5: Upstream Situation - As of September 3, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from last week [37] - As of September 4, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.08 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.06 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37] Group 6: Industrial Situation - As of September 4, China's urea production was 127.9 tons, a decrease of 7.02 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decline of 5.20%. The capacity utilization rate was 78.10%, a decrease of 4.29% from the previous period [40] - As of September 4, China's urea port sample inventory was 62.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.09 tons, a growth rate of 3.48%. As of September 3, the total inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 109.50 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.85% [44] - In July 2025, China's urea export volume was 56.72 tons, a month - on - month increase of 756.80% and a year - on - year increase of 614.36% [47] Group 7: Downstream Situation - As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 33.08%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.14 percentage points. It will gradually recover next week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 58.98%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points from last week [50]