中国经济论坛由《中国经济周刊》杂志社主办，自2001年至今已成功举办二十届。本届论坛的主题 为"中国式现代化与'十五五'中国经济展望"，设主论坛和"全球经贸新格局：出海的机遇与挑战""规则衔 接机制对接：推进大湾区市场一体化""向海图强：海洋经济新展望"等9个平行论坛，论坛前还组织了相 关主题调研活动。 第二十届中国经济论坛在广州举行。（人民日报记者 张武军摄） 与会嘉宾认为，在全党全国上下学习宣传贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神之际，在我国经济第一大省 广东举办中国经济论坛，进一步把思想和行动统一到党中央决策部署上来，为推进中国式现代化凝心聚 力恰逢其时。 与会嘉宾认为，必须深刻理解并牢牢把握推动高质量发展这个"主题"和"首要任务"，跑好"十五 五"关键一棒。要坚持以高水平科技自立自强为核心驱动，以构建新发展格局为战略基点，以人民幸福 安康为最终目的，以经济社会发展全面绿色转型为重要着力点，进一步全面深化改革开放，确保基本实 现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展。 人民网广州11月18日电 （记者曹树林、江润楠）第二十届中国经济论坛11月18日在广东省广州市 南沙经济技术开发区举行。中央和国家机关有关部委负责同志、地方 ...

Core Viewpoint - China needs to be vigilant about the weakening momentum of global economic growth and the recurring external trade conflicts that may disrupt external demand in the coming year [1] Group 1: Export Market Diversification - The trade conflict initiated by Trump has led to a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese exports, with rates rising from 34% to as high as 125% [2][3] - Despite the intensified trade conflict, China's reliance on the U.S. for exports has decreased, with the share of exports to the U.S. dropping from around 20% at the end of 2018 to about 10% [3][4] - China's exports to ASEAN and Africa have seen significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 14.3% and 26.1% respectively, contributing positively to overall export growth [4] Group 2: Export Product Structure Optimization - The structure of China's export products has improved, with the share of high-tech industrial products rising to 53.3% in September 2023, marking a historical high [5][7] - The growth in high-tech industrial exports has been driven by machinery and audio-visual equipment, which saw their export shares increase to 42.6% and 8.5% respectively [5][7] - The RCA index for various industrial products indicates that while labor and resource-intensive products have seen a decline in comparative advantage, other categories have shown significant improvement [9][12] Group 3: Concerns Behind Export Resilience - A significant portion of China's exports consists of intermediate goods, with 51.1% of total exports being intermediate products, indicating a reliance on further processing in other countries like Vietnam [13][15] - The IMF report highlights that while China's intermediate goods trade has increased, the export of final goods remains primarily directed towards Europe and North America, raising concerns about the sustainability of this trade structure [15] - The continuous decline in export prices since 2023 has led to a trend of "trading price for volume," which may provoke increased trade protectionism against China [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of building a strong domestic market as a key to leveraging China's economic advantages and a priority task during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending - The government aims to boost consumption by releasing current consumption potential through fiscal subsidies and loan interest discounts, expanding goods and services consumption, and cultivating new consumption growth points [1] - Long-term consumption capacity will be enhanced by increasing residents' income through tax, social security, and transfer payments, effectively combining livelihood improvement with consumption promotion [1] Group 2: Effective Investment - The government plans to optimize the direction of government investment by utilizing special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, focusing on foundational, long-term, and structural projects to improve overall productivity [1] - There is an emphasis on preventing ineffective investments and encouraging private capital participation in major projects, stimulating social investment through government investment [1] Group 3: Unified Market Construction - The Ministry of Finance will improve the fiscal and tax system to facilitate market unification, standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation [1] - The goal is to create a fair market environment that enhances the efficiency of resource allocation [1]

当前，世界经济增长动能不足，全球发展赤字扩大，贸易保护主义加剧。面对日趋复杂严峻的外部 环境，我国提出的一个重大战略决策就是加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新 发展格局，并在实践中不断增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性、提升国际循环质量和水平。习近平总书 记在《关于〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉的说明》中指出："外 部环境越是严峻复杂，越要加快构建新发展格局，牢牢把握发展主动权。当前和今后一个时期，要坚持 做强国内大循环，加快形成强大国内经济循环体系，以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定 性。"加快构建新发展格局是以习近平同志为核心的党中央根据我国发展阶段、环境、条件变化，特别 是基于我国比较优势变化，审时度势作出的重大决策，是事关全局的系统性、深层次变革，是立足当 前、着眼长远的战略谋划，需从全局和战略的高度准确把握加快构建新发展格局的战略构想，深刻理解 其重要意义，不断探索其实践路径。 抢抓机遇应对挑战的战略选择 2020年4月，习近平总书记在十九届中央财经委员会第七次会议上阐述对国家中长期经济社会发展 战略若干重大问题的深入思考时，首次提出"构建以国内大循 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the courage and wisdom of decision-makers in addressing challenges and setting goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The plan highlights the importance of original innovation and tackling key technological issues, as well as balancing production and ecological concerns [1][2] - It reflects a commitment to improving people's livelihoods through inclusive and foundational social policies [1] Group 2 - The plan outlines not only what needs to be done but also how to achieve these goals, showcasing strategic thinking and a systematic approach [2] - It stresses the need for high-level technological self-reliance and seizing opportunities presented by new technological revolutions [2] - The focus on building a strong domestic market and a new development pattern indicates a comprehensive view of consumption, investment, supply, and demand [2] Group 3 - The 15th Five-Year Plan is positioned as a critical period for laying the foundation for socialist modernization, emphasizing long-term vision and sustained effort [3] - The plan is likened to a relay race, where each five-year period builds upon the previous one, highlighting the importance of strategic determination and practical resilience [3] - There is a call for individuals to internalize the sense of responsibility and mission, transforming it into proactive actions to overcome challenges [3]

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) is set to take place from November 5 to 10, with participation from 155 countries, regions, and international organizations, featuring 4,108 overseas exhibitors and an exhibition area exceeding 430,000 square meters, marking a new record in scale [4] Group 1: "Buy in China" Initiative - The "Buy in China" initiative has gained significant traction, with over 20.89 million foreign visitors entering China in the first three quarters of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of over 50%, and the sales volume of tax refunds for departing tourists has doubled [2][3] - The initiative aims to enhance consumer spending and expand domestic demand, aligning with the strategic goals outlined by the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China [3] Group 2: Key Highlights of CIIE - The expo will focus on linking international and domestic markets, promoting country-specific products, and facilitating precise supply-demand matching to transform exhibits into commodities [5] - There will be an emphasis on green and smart products, encouraging the launch of intelligent connected vehicles and smart home devices, enhancing personalized services to meet consumer needs [5][6] - The event will support the debut of new products and cultural performances, with local initiatives promoting national brands and innovative products, such as a global product launch festival in Beijing and an international fashion week in Chongqing [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of building a strong domestic market and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, which is a strategic deployment for the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The new development pattern focuses on smooth economic circulation, highlighting the mutual promotion of domestic and international dual circulation [1][2] - China is currently the world's second-largest commodity consumption market and the largest online retail market, but faces challenges such as unbalanced development and local protectionism that hinder market functionality [1] Group 2 - The 20th Central Committee's proposals include a series of key tasks aimed at expanding domestic demand and breaking down barriers to market access [2] - Specific measures include implementing consumption-boosting actions, maintaining reasonable investment growth, and increasing government investment in people's livelihoods to enhance the interaction between consumption and investment [2] - The goal is to unify market basic institutional rules and standardize local government economic promotion behaviors to fully release the dividends of China's super-large market [2] Group 3 - Strengthening the domestic market is crucial for meeting both domestic and global demands, improving the foreign trade environment, and attracting high-quality foreign investment [3] - The strategy aims to align domestic market construction with high-level opening up, promoting the integration of internal and external market rules and standards [3] - This approach seeks to enhance China's influence in global supply chains and actively participate in the reform of the global economic governance system [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the construction of a strong domestic market and the acceleration of a new development pattern, highlighting the continuity of macro policies and proactive problem-solving strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Market Development - The establishment of a unified national market will facilitate the smooth flow of resources and fully leverage China's vast market potential, providing solid support for the new development pattern [1]. - The key to the new development pattern lies in ensuring unobstructed economic circulation, emphasizing the mutual promotion of domestic and international dual circulation [1][3]. - China is currently the world's second-largest commodity consumption market and the largest online retail market, with rapid expansion in capital, technology, and data markets, although challenges such as unbalanced development and local protectionism remain [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Implementation and Tasks - The 20th Central Committee has outlined a series of key tasks in the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing market increment space through consumer and investment initiatives [2]. - Specific actions include implementing consumption-boosting measures, maintaining reasonable investment growth, and increasing government investment in livelihood projects to promote a positive interaction between consumption and investment [2]. - The goal is to unify market foundational rules, standardize local government economic promotion behaviors, and enhance market regulatory enforcement to break down "invisible walls" and fully release the dividends of China's large-scale market [2]. Group 3: Global Market Integration - Strengthening the domestic market is crucial for meeting both domestic and global demands, improving the foreign trade environment, and attracting high-quality foreign investment [3]. - The Central Committee's simultaneous deployment of "building a strong domestic market" and "expanding high-level opening-up" aims to integrate domestic and international market rules and standards [3]. - This strategy seeks to attract global high-quality resources to China, enhancing the country's influence in global supply chains and actively participating in the reform of the global economic governance system [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Views - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak fundamentals, with expectations for more supportive real estate policies [1] - The recent Central Committee meeting emphasized the importance of building a strong domestic market and enhancing effective investment, which could positively impact the construction materials sector [2] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in municipal engineering projects and the positive changes in supply-side dynamics for cement and glass industries [2] Summary by Sections Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the construction materials sector (SW) rose by 0.40%, with cement and glass manufacturing declining by 0.72% and 0.89%, respectively, while fiberglass manufacturing increased by 3.37% [1][12] - The net inflow of funds into the construction materials sector was +415 million yuan during this period [1] Cement Industry Tracking - As of October 24, 2025, the national cement price index was 343.65 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.13% [17] - The total cement output for the week was 2.616 million tons, up 3.46% from the previous week [17] - The capacity utilization rate for cement clinker kilns was 63.75%, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.39 percentage points [17] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of October 23, 2025, was 1243.68 yuan/ton, down 4.40% from the previous week [5] - The inventory of raw glass in 13 provinces increased by 2.9 million heavy boxes week-on-week, indicating a growing supply [5] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali fiberglass remained stable, with demand showing slight improvement [6] - The average price of electronic fiberglass was stable, with high-end products experiencing tight supply [6] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market price remained stable, with a production volume of 1857 tons and an operating rate of 61.69% [7] - The industry continues to face challenges with a negative gross margin, indicating ongoing losses for many companies [7] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Beixin Building Materials (Buy) [8] - Weixing New Materials (Overweight) [8] - Sankeshu (Buy) [8] - China Jushi (Buy) [8] - Yinlong Co. (Buy) [8] - Puren Co. (Buy) [8]

Group 1 - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China approved the proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan, outlining the blueprint for China's development over the next five years [1] - The session emphasized building a modern industrial system and strengthening the foundation of the real economy, focusing on intelligent, green, and integrated development [1] - There is a commitment to optimize traditional industries while fostering emerging and future industries, as well as promoting high-quality development in the service sector [1] Group 2 - The session highlighted the importance of constructing a strong domestic market and accelerating the establishment of a new development pattern, with a strategic focus on expanding domestic demand [3] - The emphasis on combining investment in goods and investment in people reflects a holistic approach to promoting consumption and investment, ensuring a positive interaction between supply and demand [3] - The call to eliminate obstacles to the construction of a unified national market indicates a potential acceleration in the development of this market [3]