中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院研究员 吴玉章讲席教授 2026年是"十五五"开局之年。站在新的起点上，我国经济拥有更多积极因素支撑，也将涌现更多发展机 会和投资机遇。新年之初，我们推出"开局之年看大势"系列报道，聚焦2026年经济发展的新变化、新场 景与新活力，呈现一份有深度、有温度、有态度的趋势解读。 刘晓光 刚刚过去的2025年，"苏超"撬动票根经济，"村晚"带火乡村文旅，《哪吒之魔童闹海》刷新票房纪录， 潮玩"拉布布"掀起抢购热潮……从县域赛事到国潮IP，从实体商品到沉浸式体验，热潮奔涌的消费市 场，生动印证了我国超大规模市场的澎湃活力与无限潜能。 全国政协委员尹艳林表示，实施城乡居民增收计划，就是要增加老百姓的工资性收入、经营性收入、财 产性收入以及其他转移支付收入。随着我国经济回升向好，市场预期改善，投资理财出现新变化，居民 财产性收入有望提升，为消费信心注入持久动力。 持续增强供需适配 我国拥有世界上最完整的工业体系，但也面临着供强需弱的矛盾。扩大内需，提振消费，也要在适应消 费结构变化、增强供需适配性上做文章。2025年中央经济工作会议提出，扩大优质商品和服务供给。工 业和信息化部副部长谢远生 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key strategy for economic growth in 2026, highlighting the need for a strong domestic market [1][2] - The article discusses the significant potential of China's consumer market, driven by a population of over 1.4 billion and a growing middle-income group, which lays a solid foundation for domestic demand growth [2][3] - It points out the shift in consumer behavior from goods consumption to a balanced focus on both goods and services, indicating a substantial opportunity in service consumption [2][4] Group 2 - The article outlines the government's plan to enhance supply-demand matching by increasing the supply of quality goods and services, aiming for a high-quality development pattern by 2030 [4][5] - It highlights the role of technology, particularly AI and big data, in capturing consumer demand and driving innovation in product offerings [5][6] - The focus on effective investment is crucial for stimulating domestic demand, with policies aimed at optimizing consumption and investment strategies to create a virtuous cycle [6][7] Group 3 - The article identifies new consumption growth points in areas such as product quality improvement, service expansion, digital upgrades, and green health, which are expected to drive market development [8][9] - It mentions specific sectors projected to become trillion-yuan markets, including elderly products and smart connected vehicles, as well as billion-yuan hotspots like children's products and fitness equipment [9][10] - The overall narrative suggests that as supply and demand achieve a higher level of dynamic balance, China's economy will transition from a "large market" to a "strong market" [10]

Core Insights - The implementation plan by six departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, aims to establish three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, based on comprehensive analysis of consumption trends, industrial foundations, and technological changes [3][4]. Trillion-Level Consumption Sectors - The three trillion-level consumption sectors identified include elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics. For instance, the market size for elderly products has grown from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to an expected 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7.3%, highlighting the significance of the silver economy [4]. Hundred-Billion-Level Consumption Hotspots - The ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots encompass a diverse range of products, including baby products, smart wearable devices, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor goods, pet food, civilian drones, trendy toys, jewelry, and national trend clothing. These sectors are showing strong growth momentum and significant development potential, contributing to a diversified and vibrant consumer market [4][6]. Emerging Trends - The rise of health-conscious living and the concept of national fitness are driving increased demand for outdoor products and fitness equipment [6]. - The IP economy, which leverages intellectual property to create economic value, aligns with the consumption preferences of younger demographics, leading to a rapid global popularity of trendy toy products [8]. Market Resilience - The multi-faceted and layered approach to consumption hotspots is expected to significantly enhance the resilience and vitality of the domestic consumer market, providing solid support for the construction of a new development pattern [8].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, targeting significant optimization of the supply structure by 2027, with the formation of three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [1][2]. Group 1: Key Consumption Fields - The three trillion-level consumption fields identified include elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics [4]. - The elderly products market is projected to grow from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.3%, highlighting the importance of the silver economy [4]. Group 2: Emerging Consumption Hotspots - The ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots encompass baby products, smart wearable devices, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor products, pet food, civilian drones, trendy toys, jewelry, and national trend clothing, all showing strong growth momentum and development potential [4]. - The rise of health-conscious living and the concept of national fitness have led to increased demand for outdoor products and fitness equipment, while the IP economy aligns with the consumption preferences of younger demographics, driving the popularity of trendy toy products globally [4]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - The plan emphasizes supply-side structural reforms, accelerating brand leadership, standard upgrades, and the application of new technologies to stimulate the multiplier effect and structural dividends of China's vast domestic market [1][3]. - The multi-faceted and layered approach to consumption hotspots is expected to significantly enhance the resilience and vitality of the domestic consumption market, providing solid support for the construction of a new development pattern [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, aiming to promote consumption and address structural mismatches in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Current State of Consumer Goods - The total variety of consumer goods in China has reached 230 million, with over 100 categories such as home appliances and furniture leading global production [2]. - The quality of consumer goods has improved significantly, with a compliance rate of over 96% for major products meeting domestic and international standards [2]. - High-end domestic products are increasingly favored, with a market penetration rate of 85% for 4K ultra-HD smart TVs and 98% for energy-efficient variable-frequency air conditioners [2]. Group 2: Structural Issues and Future Goals - Despite advancements, there are still structural mismatches in supply and demand, particularly in high-end brands for jewelry, bags, and cosmetics, as well as personalized products for the elderly and smart terminals [3]. - By 2027, the plan aims to optimize the supply structure, creating three trillion-yuan consumer sectors and ten hundred-billion-yuan consumption hotspots, including elderly products and smart connected vehicles [4]. - The goal is to transition from quantity to quality in production, addressing mismatches in consumer desires and resource allocation [4]. Group 3: Targeted Consumer Needs - The focus is shifting from mere availability of products to their quality, with an emphasis on diverse consumption scenarios [5]. - Key tasks include enhancing the supply of baby products, quality student supplies, fashionable items, and products tailored for the elderly [5][6]. - The government aims to promote large-scale consumption and upgrade the market by reforming the automotive sector and fostering green and smart home consumption [6]. Group 4: Regulatory and Quality Assurance Measures - The market regulatory authority plans to strengthen the quality and safety governance of consumer goods, ensuring a high-quality development-oriented standard system [7]. - Continuous monitoring and enforcement actions will be taken to maintain consumer confidence and improve the supply of quality products [7].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, addressing structural mismatches and promoting high-quality consumption in China by 2027 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Adaptability - The current supply of consumer goods in China has entered a new development stage, but structural mismatches still exist in high-end brands and innovative products [2][3]. - The implementation plan proposes five key measures to address these mismatches, including expanding new product supply, enhancing innovation, and promoting new manufacturing models [2][3]. Group 2: Market Potential and Growth - By 2027, the plan aims to create three trillion-yuan-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-yuan-level consumption hotspots, including elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics [4][5]. - The consumer market is expected to show strong growth potential, with diverse and vibrant characteristics emerging in sectors like cultural and creative products [4][6]. Group 3: Consumer Needs and Trends - The plan emphasizes the importance of catering to diverse consumer needs across different age groups, promoting safety in children's products, and enhancing the quality of elderly care products [3][5]. - There is a focus on developing personalized and fashionable products that resonate with younger consumers, such as cultural and designer collaborations [5][6]. Group 4: Economic Contribution and Policy Support - The plan aims to establish a high-quality development pattern by 2030, enhancing the contribution of consumption to economic growth through coordinated efforts among various departments [7][8]. - Recent data shows that retail sales reached 36.6 trillion yuan in the first ten months of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, indicating a stable consumer market [7][8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the implementation plan approved by the State Council to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, aiming for significant optimization of the supply structure by 2027, with the creation of three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [1][2]. Group 1: Key Consumption Areas - The three trillion-level consumption fields identified include elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics. The market for elderly products is projected to grow from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.3% [2]. - The ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots encompass baby products, smart wearable devices, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor products, pet food and supplies, civilian drones, trendy toys, jewelry, and national trend clothing. These areas are showing strong growth momentum and significant development potential [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Opportunities - The article highlights the dual approach of "stock optimization" and "incremental creation" to stimulate consumption. Stock optimization focuses on enhancing product quality and cultural elements, while incremental creation targets new products and services for emerging demographics and needs, such as smart home ecosystems and solutions for the aging population [1][2]. - The diversification and vitality of the consumption market are emphasized, with trends like health living and fitness driving demand for outdoor and fitness products, and the IP economy appealing to younger consumers through trendy products [2].

Core Insights - The Chinese government aims to create three trillion-yuan-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-yuan-level consumption hotspots by 2027, focusing on supply-side structural reforms to stimulate domestic demand [1][2] Group 1: Trillion-Yuan Consumption Sectors - The three identified trillion-yuan consumption sectors are elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics, with the elderly products market expected to grow from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7.3% [1] Group 2: Hundred-Billion-Yuan Consumption Hotspots - The ten hundred-billion-yuan consumption hotspots include baby products, smart wearable devices, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor products, pet food, civilian drones, trendy toys, jewelry, and national trend clothing [1] Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Preferences - There is a strong growth momentum in these sectors, driven by trends such as health consciousness and fitness, leading to increased demand for outdoor products and fitness equipment. The IP economy aligns with the consumption preferences of younger demographics, resulting in a rapid global rise of trendy products [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has introduced a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming to stimulate consumption and align production with consumer preferences [1][2]. Group 1: Key Measures and Goals - The plan outlines 19 key tasks focused on five areas: accelerating the application of new technologies and models, expanding the supply of unique and new products, cultivating new consumption scenarios and business formats, and enhancing scene empowerment [2][3]. - By 2027, the plan aims to establish three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots, with a vision for a high-quality development pattern of mutual promotion between supply and consumption by 2030 [7][8]. Group 2: Targeted Consumption Areas - The trillion-level consumption sectors identified include elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics, with the elderly products market projected to grow from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7.3% [7][8]. - The hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots include baby products, smart wearable devices, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor products, pet food and supplies, civilian drones, trendy toys, jewelry, and national trend clothing, indicating strong growth potential [9][11]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply of consumer goods has entered a new development stage characterized by quality and price, although structural mismatches in supply and demand still exist in certain areas [12][13]. - The government plans to address these mismatches by increasing resource investment and efforts to achieve a higher level of dynamic balance in supply and demand over the next five years, ensuring consumers have access to better quality products and services [14].

Core Insights - The article discusses the implementation plan released on November 26, aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods to further promote consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Key Consumption Areas - Three trillion-level consumption areas identified include elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics [5]. - Ten billion-level consumption hotspots include baby products, smart wearable devices, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor products, pet food supplies, civilian drones, trendy toys, jewelry, and national trend clothing [5][6]. - The elderly products market is projected to grow from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.3% [5]. Group 2: Addressing Supply and Demand Mismatches - The core objective of the implementation plan is to transition production and consumption from quantity to quality, addressing mismatches in supply and demand that lead to resource waste [7]. - The plan includes measures to expand new technologies, enhance product supply, and create new consumption scenarios to better match diverse consumer needs [7][8]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Innovations - The user base for generative artificial intelligence products reached 515 million by mid-2023, indicating a growing application in consumer goods [8]. - The promotion of old-for-new consumption policies has generated over 2.4 trillion yuan in sales, benefiting more than 360 million people in the first ten months of the year [9]. - Future initiatives will focus on expanding large-scale consumption, fostering new types of consumption, and creating an international consumption environment [9].