[Table_Title] 策略研究|策略跟踪报告 地方两会着力促进经济高质量发展 [Table_ReportType] ——策略跟踪报告 [Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] | [Table_Authors] 分析师: | 宫慧菁 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号： | S0270524010001 | | 电话： | 18028875418 | | 邮箱： | gonghj@wlzq.com.cn | [Table_ReportList] 相关研究 A 股迎来春节行情，资金表现活跃 A 股盈利能力有望延续回升 机构配置侧重成长与周期板块 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_RightTitle] 2026 年 03 月 03 日 策 略 跟 踪 策 略 研 究 ⚫ 各地召开两会，明确今年工作重点。截至 2 月 25 日，31 个 省（自治区、直辖市）已全部召开了地方两会，公布了 2026 年经济社会发展的主要预期目标，明确各地产业发展思路 及年度工作重点。多个主要经济大省明确坚持稳中求进工 作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，扎实推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is characterized by a blend of upward continuation and short-term volatility, necessitating investment strategies that align with risk preferences and market dynamics [1][2]. Market Conditions - Analysts believe that the market is poised for an upward trend driven by four key factors: ample liquidity, policy catalysts, calendar effects, and the interplay of valuation and earnings [3][4]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is seen as a critical period for investment decisions, with historical data indicating a strong performance of the market during this time [2][4]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on two main lines: technology growth and resource products, while also diversifying into cyclical consumption, price increases, and defensive assets [6][7]. - For medium-risk investors, a balanced approach involving profit-taking and a "barbell strategy" is suggested, combining dividend and technology assets [2][3]. Sector Insights - The technology sector is expected to be a core focus for long-term investments, particularly in AI and related fields, with a shift from hardware to application-based investments anticipated in 2026 [6][7]. - The cyclical and resource sectors are highlighted for their potential price increases and recovery opportunities, with specific attention to industrial metals and energy products [7][8]. Defensive Assets - High-dividend assets are recommended as a core component of defensive strategies, with sectors such as utilities, banks, and consumer staples being favored for their stability and yield [8]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio that balances offensive and defensive assets to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations and external uncertainties [8].

Core Insights - Consumption is emphasized as a crucial driver of economic growth, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and consumption as a strategic priority for China's economic development [1][2][4]. Group 1: Strategic Importance of Consumption - The Chinese government recognizes consumption as the foundation of the economy and a key engine for growth, as highlighted in various party reports and meetings [2][4]. - The emphasis on boosting consumption reflects a strategic response to both domestic and international economic trends, aiming to transition from an investment-driven model to one led by consumer demand [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Consumption Trends - China's retail sales are projected to reach 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024 and exceed 50 trillion yuan in 2025, solidifying its position as the world's second-largest consumer market [6]. - The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth is expected to surpass 67% by 2025, with consumption alone accounting for 52% [6]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Potential - China's current consumption rate is approximately 40%, which is significantly lower than that of developed countries, indicating substantial growth potential [8]. - The growth of the middle-income group and urbanization are expected to further enhance consumption capacity and market expansion [9]. Group 4: Structural Changes in Consumption - There is a notable shift in consumer preferences towards high-quality and service-oriented products, driven by rising incomes and changing consumption patterns [10]. - The digital economy and new consumption models are emerging as significant growth areas, with e-commerce continuing to thrive [10]. Group 5: Policy Measures to Boost Consumption - The government plans to implement targeted actions to stimulate consumption, focusing on increasing residents' income and improving social security systems to enhance consumer confidence [12][13]. - Expanding the supply of quality goods and services is essential to meet diverse consumer needs and stimulate market activity [14][15].

Core Insights - The national e-commerce work conference held on January 13-14 emphasized four key areas for development by 2026: strengthening top-level design, enhancing development capabilities, creating a favorable ecosystem, and expanding open cooperation [1][2] Group 1: E-commerce Development Environment - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, the e-commerce development environment has continuously improved, with the Ministry of Commerce and local departments implementing various policies to boost digital consumption, rural e-commerce, and cross-border e-commerce, injecting strong momentum into the construction of a unified national market [1] - The overall scale of digital consumption has exceeded 23.8 trillion yuan, making China the world's largest online retail market for 13 consecutive years [1] - The integration of digital and real economies has deepened, with over 1,500 industrial e-commerce matching events covering nearly 10,000 enterprises, effectively empowering traditional industry upgrades [1] Group 2: Social and Economic Impact - The social benefits of e-commerce have been continuously enhanced, with related employment exceeding 78 million and express delivery business volume growing at an average annual rate of nearly 20% [1] - The scale of software and information services related to cloud computing and big data has rapidly increased, demonstrating significant contributions during pandemic prevention and control efforts [1] - E-commerce has become a new driving force for cultivating new productive forces and plays an active role in building a new development pattern [1] Group 3: Strategic Goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization, with 2026 marking the beginning of this phase [2] - The conference highlighted the importance of integrating domestic economic work with international economic and trade struggles, focusing on high-quality development, high-level openness, and efficient governance in e-commerce [2] - Key strategies include strengthening party leadership, driving innovation, optimizing the development environment, and expanding open cooperation for inclusive and win-win outcomes [2]

Core Insights - The national e-commerce work conference was held in Beijing on January 13-14, focusing on the implementation of the central economic work conference's spirit and summarizing the achievements of e-commerce during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, particularly for 2025 [1] Group 1: Achievements and Developments - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, the Ministry of Commerce has worked with local departments to promote high-quality development in e-commerce, optimizing the development environment and implementing policies for digital consumption, rural e-commerce, and cross-border e-commerce [2] - The overall scale of digital consumption has exceeded 23.8 trillion yuan, with China maintaining its position as the world's largest online retail market for 13 consecutive years [2] - Over 1,500 industrial e-commerce matching activities have been conducted, covering nearly 10,000 enterprises, effectively empowering traditional industry upgrades and promoting online-offline synergy [2] - The number of "Silk Road e-commerce" partner countries has increased to 36, with successful progress in the creation of pilot zones, sharing the benefits of China's large e-commerce market globally [2] - Employment related to e-commerce has surpassed 78 million, with express delivery business volume growing nearly 20% annually, showcasing the sector's significant social impact [2] Group 2: Future Goals and Strategies - The 15th Five-Year Plan period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization, with 2026 marking the beginning of this phase [3] - The conference emphasized four key areas for development: strengthening party leadership for upward growth, driving innovation for new development, optimizing the environment for positive growth, and expanding open cooperation for inclusive benefits [3] - The conference included representatives from central and national departments, as well as commerce authorities from provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the introduction of 28 policy measures by the Shanghai Municipal Government to enhance service quality and boost consumption across six key sectors: finance, information services, transportation, cultural and entertainment services, life services, and inspection and certification [1][3] Group 2 - In the financial sector, the measures encourage innovation in financial products tailored to new consumption trends, such as holiday, night, nostalgic, and anime economies, and include personal consumption loan interest subsidies and optimized auto loan processes [1][2] - In transportation services, the government supports airlines in launching new international routes and developing luxury tourism trains, as well as enhancing airport commercial layouts to create composite consumption scenarios [2] - In the cultural and entertainment sector, there is a focus on promoting the gaming and esports industry, supporting the development of original IP games, and incentivizing quality micro-short film content creation [2] Group 3 - The next steps involve ensuring the effective implementation of the measures by coordinating service supply with consumer demand, promoting digital, green, and intelligent consumption, and enhancing service quality [3] - The government aims to create a favorable environment for sustained consumption growth by implementing fiscal and financial support policies and improving service quality management and brand building [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the strategic focus of the national business system for 2026, highlighting the implementation of eight key areas of work to boost consumption and enhance trade and investment [1][2][3] - The meeting identified that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the role of consumption as a main driver has significantly strengthened, and the three pillars of a strong trade nation have become more solid [1] - The specific focus for 2026 includes deepening the implementation of consumption promotion actions, optimizing policies for replacing old consumer goods, and fostering new growth points in service consumption [1][2] Group 2 - The article outlines the need to establish a modern market and circulation system, promoting the construction of a unified national market, and enhancing the retail industry's innovative development [2] - It emphasizes the importance of creating new advantages for attracting foreign investment and enhancing the "Invest in China" brand, alongside improving the foreign investment service guarantee system [2] - The article also discusses the necessity of risk prevention and mitigation, including the establishment of a robust legal framework and trade risk prevention mechanisms to maintain supply chain resilience and security [2]

Group 1 - The core focus of the national business system for 2026 includes eight key areas: consumption, circulation, trade, foreign investment, alignment with international rules, outbound investment, economic and trade cooperation, and risk prevention [1][2] - The first priority is to implement actions to boost consumption, including creating the "Buy in China" brand, fostering new growth points in service consumption, optimizing the old-for-new policy for consumer goods, and enhancing the international consumption environment [1] - The meeting emphasizes the construction of a unified national market, improving the modern market and circulation system, and promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade [1] Group 2 - To promote trade innovation, the meeting aims to enhance the "Export China" brand by upgrading goods trade, developing service trade, and encouraging service exports [1] - The initiative to enhance the "Invest in China" brand includes expanding service sector openness, improving investment promotion levels, and establishing a robust foreign investment service guarantee system [1] - The meeting also outlines specific measures for aligning with international high-standard economic and trade rules, effectively managing outbound investment, deepening bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation, and preventing and mitigating risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The national business system will focus on eight key areas by 2026, including consumption, circulation, trade, foreign investment, alignment with international rules, foreign investment, economic and trade cooperation, and risk prevention and mitigation [1][2] Group 1: Consumption and Market Development - The first priority is to implement actions to boost consumption and create the "Buy in China" brand, which includes fostering new growth points in service consumption and optimizing the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy [1] - The aim is to develop an international consumption environment and promote digital, green, and health consumption to stimulate the vitality of the lower-tier market [1] Group 2: Market and Trade Innovation - The meeting emphasized the need to establish a modern market and circulation system, enhance institutional guarantees, optimize infrastructure, and promote innovation in the retail sector [1] - There is a focus on integrating domestic and foreign trade, optimizing and upgrading goods trade, and significantly developing service trade while encouraging service exports [1] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Economic Cooperation - The initiative to enhance the "Invest in China" brand aims to create new advantages for attracting foreign investment, with plans to gradually expand the opening of the service sector and improve investment promotion levels [1] - The meeting also outlined specific measures for aligning with international high-standard economic and trade rules, effectively managing foreign investment, and deepening bilateral and multilateral economic and trade cooperation [2]

Group 1 - The core focus of the national business system is to implement eight key initiatives to boost consumption, trade, and investment by 2026, marking the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The first priority is to enhance the "Buy in China" brand by fostering new growth points in service consumption, optimizing the old-for-new consumption policy, and creating an international consumption environment [2][3] - The meeting emphasizes the importance of developing digital, green, and health consumption to invigorate the lower-tier market [2] Group 2 - The initiative to promote the "Export China" brand includes optimizing and upgrading goods trade, significantly developing service trade, and encouraging service exports [2][3] - The focus is on innovating digital and green trade while promoting the integration of trade and investment [2] - To attract foreign investment, the strategy includes expanding autonomous openings in the service sector and enhancing the foreign investment service guarantee system, thereby polishing the "Invest in China" brand [2][3] Group 3 - The meeting outlines the need for effective management of foreign investments, guiding cross-border supply chain layouts, and enhancing overseas service systems [3] - It also highlights the importance of deepening "Belt and Road" economic cooperation and developing cross-border e-commerce [3] - The agenda includes expanding and enriching the free trade zone network and improving the legal framework related to foreign trade [3]