[Table_Title] 策略研究|策略跟踪报告 地方两会着力促进经济高质量发展 [Table_ReportType] ——策略跟踪报告 [Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] | [Table_Authors] 分析师: | 宫慧菁 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号： | S0270524010001 | | 电话： | 18028875418 | | 邮箱： | gonghj@wlzq.com.cn | [Table_ReportList] 相关研究 A 股迎来春节行情，资金表现活跃 A 股盈利能力有望延续回升 机构配置侧重成长与周期板块 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_RightTitle] 2026 年 03 月 03 日 策 略 跟 踪 策 略 研 究 ⚫ 各地召开两会，明确今年工作重点。截至 2 月 25 日，31 个 省（自治区、直辖市）已全部召开了地方两会，公布了 2026 年经济社会发展的主要预期目标，明确各地产业发展思路 及年度工作重点。多个主要经济大省明确坚持稳中求进工 作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，扎实推 ...

"五子"联动是北京市推进高质量发展的核心战略，也是"十四五"规划的关键抓手。作为北京市管金融机构，华夏银行以"京华行动"深度融入首都发展大局， 通过科技金融与绿色金融双轮驱动，同步激活消费潜能、夯实区域协同根基，并加强自身数字化转型，为"五子"联动战略从蓝图到实景注入强劲金融动能。 自"京华行动"实施以来，华夏银行构建了千亿级资金支持体系，打造专业化服务机制，完善全链条产品生态。数据显示，2025年华夏银行为北京地区提供各 类投融资服务超5000亿元，同比增长15%。"京华行动"一系列举措有力推动了首都经济高质量发展，彰显了金融机构服务国家战略和地区发展的使命担当。 金融活水 "滴灌"科创 在北京经济技术开发区，一家深耕高端半导体设备研发与制造的科技企业，正以创新之笔书写中国"芯"篇章。2025年，这家企业成功获得华夏银行35亿元综 合授信，其中25亿元资金已经像及时雨般投放，为企业攻克关键技术、填补国内空白、降低对外技术依赖、打造国际竞争力注入强劲动力。 这是华夏银行用金融活水润泽科技创新，服务北京国际科技创新中心建设的缩影。 科技金融是华夏银行服务首都发展新质生产力的核心引擎。2025年，华夏银行将科技金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is characterized by a blend of upward continuation and short-term volatility, necessitating investment strategies that align with risk preferences and market dynamics [1][2]. Market Conditions - Analysts believe that the market is poised for an upward trend driven by four key factors: ample liquidity, policy catalysts, calendar effects, and the interplay of valuation and earnings [3][4]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is seen as a critical period for investment decisions, with historical data indicating a strong performance of the market during this time [2][4]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on two main lines: technology growth and resource products, while also diversifying into cyclical consumption, price increases, and defensive assets [6][7]. - For medium-risk investors, a balanced approach involving profit-taking and a "barbell strategy" is suggested, combining dividend and technology assets [2][3]. Sector Insights - The technology sector is expected to be a core focus for long-term investments, particularly in AI and related fields, with a shift from hardware to application-based investments anticipated in 2026 [6][7]. - The cyclical and resource sectors are highlighted for their potential price increases and recovery opportunities, with specific attention to industrial metals and energy products [7][8]. Defensive Assets - High-dividend assets are recommended as a core component of defensive strategies, with sectors such as utilities, banks, and consumer staples being favored for their stability and yield [8]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio that balances offensive and defensive assets to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations and external uncertainties [8].

Core Insights - Consumption is emphasized as a crucial driver of economic growth, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and consumption as a strategic priority for China's economic development [1][2][4]. Group 1: Strategic Importance of Consumption - The Chinese government recognizes consumption as the foundation of the economy and a key engine for growth, as highlighted in various party reports and meetings [2][4]. - The emphasis on boosting consumption reflects a strategic response to both domestic and international economic trends, aiming to transition from an investment-driven model to one led by consumer demand [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Consumption Trends - China's retail sales are projected to reach 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024 and exceed 50 trillion yuan in 2025, solidifying its position as the world's second-largest consumer market [6]. - The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth is expected to surpass 67% by 2025, with consumption alone accounting for 52% [6]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Potential - China's current consumption rate is approximately 40%, which is significantly lower than that of developed countries, indicating substantial growth potential [8]. - The growth of the middle-income group and urbanization are expected to further enhance consumption capacity and market expansion [9]. Group 4: Structural Changes in Consumption - There is a notable shift in consumer preferences towards high-quality and service-oriented products, driven by rising incomes and changing consumption patterns [10]. - The digital economy and new consumption models are emerging as significant growth areas, with e-commerce continuing to thrive [10]. Group 5: Policy Measures to Boost Consumption - The government plans to implement targeted actions to stimulate consumption, focusing on increasing residents' income and improving social security systems to enhance consumer confidence [12][13]. - Expanding the supply of quality goods and services is essential to meet diverse consumer needs and stimulate market activity [14][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the introduction of 28 policy measures by the Shanghai Municipal Government to enhance service quality and boost consumption across six key sectors: finance, information services, transportation, cultural and entertainment services, life services, and inspection and certification [1][3] Group 2 - In the financial sector, the measures encourage innovation in financial products tailored to new consumption trends, such as holiday, night, nostalgic, and anime economies, and include personal consumption loan interest subsidies and optimized auto loan processes [1][2] - In transportation services, the government supports airlines in launching new international routes and developing luxury tourism trains, as well as enhancing airport commercial layouts to create composite consumption scenarios [2] - In the cultural and entertainment sector, there is a focus on promoting the gaming and esports industry, supporting the development of original IP games, and incentivizing quality micro-short film content creation [2] Group 3 - The next steps involve ensuring the effective implementation of the measures by coordinating service supply with consumer demand, promoting digital, green, and intelligent consumption, and enhancing service quality [3] - The government aims to create a favorable environment for sustained consumption growth by implementing fiscal and financial support policies and improving service quality management and brand building [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the strategic focus of the national business system for 2026, highlighting the implementation of eight key areas of work to boost consumption and enhance trade and investment [1][2][3] - The meeting identified that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the role of consumption as a main driver has significantly strengthened, and the three pillars of a strong trade nation have become more solid [1] - The specific focus for 2026 includes deepening the implementation of consumption promotion actions, optimizing policies for replacing old consumer goods, and fostering new growth points in service consumption [1][2] Group 2 - The article outlines the need to establish a modern market and circulation system, promoting the construction of a unified national market, and enhancing the retail industry's innovative development [2] - It emphasizes the importance of creating new advantages for attracting foreign investment and enhancing the "Invest in China" brand, alongside improving the foreign investment service guarantee system [2] - The article also discusses the necessity of risk prevention and mitigation, including the establishment of a robust legal framework and trade risk prevention mechanisms to maintain supply chain resilience and security [2]

Group 1 - The core focus of the national business system for 2026 includes eight key areas: consumption, circulation, trade, foreign investment, alignment with international rules, outbound investment, economic and trade cooperation, and risk prevention [1][2] - The first priority is to implement actions to boost consumption, including creating the "Buy in China" brand, fostering new growth points in service consumption, optimizing the old-for-new policy for consumer goods, and enhancing the international consumption environment [1] - The meeting emphasizes the construction of a unified national market, improving the modern market and circulation system, and promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade [1] Group 2 - To promote trade innovation, the meeting aims to enhance the "Export China" brand by upgrading goods trade, developing service trade, and encouraging service exports [1] - The initiative to enhance the "Invest in China" brand includes expanding service sector openness, improving investment promotion levels, and establishing a robust foreign investment service guarantee system [1] - The meeting also outlines specific measures for aligning with international high-standard economic and trade rules, effectively managing outbound investment, deepening bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation, and preventing and mitigating risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The national business system will focus on eight key areas by 2026, including consumption, circulation, trade, foreign investment, alignment with international rules, foreign investment, economic and trade cooperation, and risk prevention and mitigation [1][2] Group 1: Consumption and Market Development - The first priority is to implement actions to boost consumption and create the "Buy in China" brand, which includes fostering new growth points in service consumption and optimizing the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy [1] - The aim is to develop an international consumption environment and promote digital, green, and health consumption to stimulate the vitality of the lower-tier market [1] Group 2: Market and Trade Innovation - The meeting emphasized the need to establish a modern market and circulation system, enhance institutional guarantees, optimize infrastructure, and promote innovation in the retail sector [1] - There is a focus on integrating domestic and foreign trade, optimizing and upgrading goods trade, and significantly developing service trade while encouraging service exports [1] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Economic Cooperation - The initiative to enhance the "Invest in China" brand aims to create new advantages for attracting foreign investment, with plans to gradually expand the opening of the service sector and improve investment promotion levels [1] - The meeting also outlined specific measures for aligning with international high-standard economic and trade rules, effectively managing foreign investment, and deepening bilateral and multilateral economic and trade cooperation [2]

Group 1 - The core focus of the national business system is to implement eight key initiatives to boost consumption, trade, and investment by 2026, marking the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The first priority is to enhance the "Buy in China" brand by fostering new growth points in service consumption, optimizing the old-for-new consumption policy, and creating an international consumption environment [2][3] - The meeting emphasizes the importance of developing digital, green, and health consumption to invigorate the lower-tier market [2] Group 2 - The initiative to promote the "Export China" brand includes optimizing and upgrading goods trade, significantly developing service trade, and encouraging service exports [2][3] - The focus is on innovating digital and green trade while promoting the integration of trade and investment [2] - To attract foreign investment, the strategy includes expanding autonomous openings in the service sector and enhancing the foreign investment service guarantee system, thereby polishing the "Invest in China" brand [2][3] Group 3 - The meeting outlines the need for effective management of foreign investments, guiding cross-border supply chain layouts, and enhancing overseas service systems [3] - It also highlights the importance of deepening "Belt and Road" economic cooperation and developing cross-border e-commerce [3] - The agenda includes expanding and enriching the free trade zone network and improving the legal framework related to foreign trade [3]

Group 1 - The national business conference outlined eight key tasks for the business system by 2026, focusing on enhancing consumption, modern market systems, trade innovation, foreign investment, international trade rules, foreign investment management, bilateral cooperation, and security in openness [1] - The conference emphasized the implementation of a consumption boost initiative, aiming to create the "Buy in China" brand, enhance service consumption, and optimize policies for upgrading consumer goods [1] - The development of a modern market and circulation system is prioritized, with efforts to promote a unified national market and innovate in the retail sector [1] Group 2 - Trade innovation will be promoted through the "Export China" brand, with a focus on optimizing goods trade, developing service trade, and encouraging digital and green trade [2] - The conference aims to enhance foreign investment attractiveness by promoting the "Invest in China" brand and improving the foreign investment service guarantee system [2] - Effective foreign investment management will be implemented to guide cross-border supply chain layouts and enhance overseas service systems, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [2]