中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院研究员 吴玉章讲席教授 2026年是"十五五"开局之年。站在新的起点上，我国经济拥有更多积极因素支撑，也将涌现更多发展机 会和投资机遇。新年之初，我们推出"开局之年看大势"系列报道，聚焦2026年经济发展的新变化、新场 景与新活力，呈现一份有深度、有温度、有态度的趋势解读。 刘晓光 刚刚过去的2025年，"苏超"撬动票根经济，"村晚"带火乡村文旅，《哪吒之魔童闹海》刷新票房纪录， 潮玩"拉布布"掀起抢购热潮……从县域赛事到国潮IP，从实体商品到沉浸式体验，热潮奔涌的消费市 场，生动印证了我国超大规模市场的澎湃活力与无限潜能。 全国政协委员尹艳林表示，实施城乡居民增收计划，就是要增加老百姓的工资性收入、经营性收入、财 产性收入以及其他转移支付收入。随着我国经济回升向好，市场预期改善，投资理财出现新变化，居民 财产性收入有望提升，为消费信心注入持久动力。 持续增强供需适配 我国拥有世界上最完整的工业体系，但也面临着供强需弱的矛盾。扩大内需，提振消费，也要在适应消 费结构变化、增强供需适配性上做文章。2025年中央经济工作会议提出，扩大优质商品和服务供给。工 业和信息化部副部长谢远生 ...

近日，市场监管总局（国家标准委）批准发布《婴童用品 便携式婴儿睡篮技术要求》（GB/T 46975—2025）、《婴童用品挥发性有机物释放量的测定》（GB/T 46856—2025）两项国家标准，聚焦 婴童用品质量安全，构建产品要求与检测方法相协同的标准体系，为守护婴童健康筑牢标准屏障。 《婴童用品挥发性有机物释放量的测定》国家标准针对当前婴童用品挥发性有机物（VOC）检测 方法缺乏统一规范的问题，在对苯、甲苯等传统VOC物质开展检测的基础上，将萘、丙烯酸甲酯、甲 基丙烯酸甲酯、2-苯基-2-丙醇4种国内外风险监测中高频检出的新型物质纳入检测范围，同时给出了低 成本的采样袋法与贴近使用场景的气候舱法两种采样方法，实现高风险VOC物质精准识别和广泛覆 盖。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:施歌】 《婴童用品 便携式婴儿睡篮技术要求》国家标准适用于无法独立坐立翻身的婴幼儿使用、看护人 可单手搬运携带的婴儿睡篮及其支架，从三方面提出技术要求：一是严控材料安全。明确6大类共56种 化学有害物质限量，并对pH值及色牢度提出针对性要求，从源头杜绝有毒有害及刺激性物质与儿童接 触的风险。二是强化机械物理性能。充分借鉴国外先进技术并结 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key strategy for economic growth in 2026, highlighting the need for a strong domestic market [1][2] - The article discusses the significant potential of China's consumer market, driven by a population of over 1.4 billion and a growing middle-income group, which lays a solid foundation for domestic demand growth [2][3] - It points out the shift in consumer behavior from goods consumption to a balanced focus on both goods and services, indicating a substantial opportunity in service consumption [2][4] Group 2 - The article outlines the government's plan to enhance supply-demand matching by increasing the supply of quality goods and services, aiming for a high-quality development pattern by 2030 [4][5] - It highlights the role of technology, particularly AI and big data, in capturing consumer demand and driving innovation in product offerings [5][6] - The focus on effective investment is crucial for stimulating domestic demand, with policies aimed at optimizing consumption and investment strategies to create a virtuous cycle [6][7] Group 3 - The article identifies new consumption growth points in areas such as product quality improvement, service expansion, digital upgrades, and green health, which are expected to drive market development [8][9] - It mentions specific sectors projected to become trillion-yuan markets, including elderly products and smart connected vehicles, as well as billion-yuan hotspots like children's products and fitness equipment [9][10] - The overall narrative suggests that as supply and demand achieve a higher level of dynamic balance, China's economy will transition from a "large market" to a "strong market" [10]

Core Viewpoint - Recent policies from central and local governments aim to significantly boost consumption through financial tools and support, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing consumer spending [1] Group 1: Policy Focus Areas - The policies are driven by a dual approach of "commerce" and "finance," targeting the entire consumption chain [3] - The first key area is the upgrade of "physical goods," specifically mentioning durable consumer goods and digital products, with a strong emphasis on automobiles [3] - The second key area focuses on the expansion and quality enhancement of "service consumption," including sectors like home services, tourism, elderly care, education, and healthcare [3] - The third key area is the cultivation of "new consumption," highlighting green consumption, digital consumption, and the integration of technology with consumption [4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Long-term investment strategies should focus on sectors backed by national blueprints with significant market potential, such as smart connected vehicles, consumer electronics, and the silver economy [5] - Short-term investment opportunities include sectors directly benefiting from policies like the trade-in programs and financial support for durable goods, as well as those recovering from service consumption, such as tourism and offline retail [5] - Technology companies providing infrastructure for new consumption, such as digital payment and e-commerce service providers, are also highlighted as potential investment targets [5]

Policy Overview - The "Implementation Plan" aims to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, targeting the formation of three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027[6]. - The plan emphasizes a shift from broad-based consumption policies to a focus on quality supply that meets diverse consumer needs, aiming for structural optimization in supply-demand matching[3]. Key Objectives - By 2027, the consumer goods supply structure is expected to be significantly optimized, with specific focus on sectors such as elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics[6]. - The plan outlines five key tasks and nineteen specific initiatives, including accelerating new technology applications and expanding the supply of unique and innovative products[12]. Market Impact - The plan is projected to activate consumption potential through supply-side reforms, addressing mismatches where consumers want to buy but cannot find suitable products[6]. - The expected contribution of consumption to economic growth is set to increase steadily, with a goal of achieving a high-quality development pattern by 2030[6]. Industry Focus - Key consumption hotspots include baby products, smart wearables, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor goods, pet supplies, and cultural fashion items[6]. - The plan encourages industries to focus on precise demand matching, technological empowerment, and the integration of consumption scenarios to maximize policy benefits[14]. Financial Support - The plan highlights the importance of financial support and aims to enhance the adaptability and convenience of consumer finance services, with a focus on promoting consumption through subsidies and incentives[18]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy policies are expected to continue into 2026, with an emphasis on targeted and expanded coverage[18].

Group 1 - The core message of the article emphasizes the importance of "domestic demand as the main driver" for China's economic growth, particularly in light of the changing international environment and the need to address the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand [2][3] - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the implementation of specific actions to boost consumption and the formulation of plans to increase income for urban and rural residents, indicating a commitment to expanding domestic demand [2][3] - The meeting also stressed the need to enhance the supply of quality goods and services, aligning with consumer demand to stimulate robust consumption, and set strategic goals for significant consumption sectors by 2027 [4][5] Group 2 - The article outlines a dual approach to encourage consumer spending: increasing income and reducing burdens on consumers, including the introduction of annual childcare subsidies and tax exemptions for these subsidies [3][4] - It mentions the establishment of a consumption growth matrix focusing on diverse and personalized consumption scenarios, with specific sectors identified for growth, such as elderly products and smart connected vehicles [5] - The overall strategy of prioritizing domestic demand is presented as a pragmatic response to current challenges while also being a long-term strategic layout for sustainable economic development [5]

Group 1: Economic Confidence and International Trade - The central government shows increased confidence in international trade, with China's trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in 2025[6] - China's export share reached 15.1% in the 12 months leading up to July 2025, up from 14.9% in 2024, indicating a recovery in global competitiveness[6] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The focus remains on expanding domestic demand, with a shift towards service consumption and innovative products in subsidy policies for 2026[8] - The meeting emphasized the need to optimize the implementation of "two new" policies, indicating a potential shift in consumption subsidies towards sectors like elderly products and smart vehicles[9] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - The meeting highlighted the need to stabilize investment, with measures including increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage[9] - New policy financial tools are expected to be introduced to stimulate private investment, with a focus on digital economy and urban renewal projects[10] Group 4: Macro Policy Adjustments - The macro policy direction has shifted to "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," indicating a more cautious approach compared to last year's focus on stability[12] - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to remain at 4% for 2026, with an increase in special bonds to support key projects[12] Group 5: Real Estate Market Stability - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by controlling supply and encouraging the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing[16] - Reforms to the housing provident fund are proposed to broaden its usage and improve access for first-time buyers[17] Group 6: Supply-Side Optimization - The meeting acknowledged the prominent contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand, emphasizing the need for supply-side reforms[19] - The focus on "anti-involution" aims to stabilize market expectations and prevent rapid price declines in key industries[20]

Group 1: Policy Insights - The joint policy issued by six ministries aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, marking a significant shift in consumption policy since the Fourth Plenary Session[6] - By 2027, the goal is to establish three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots, indicating a strong focus on new consumption[7] - The policy emphasizes the application of new technologies and models, expanding the supply of unique and new products, and fostering new consumption scenarios and business formats[6] Group 2: New Consumption Characteristics - New consumption is characterized by a focus on emotional value and technological content, with consumers increasingly valuing emotional experiences over mere functionality[14] - The rise of short video platforms and the experience economy is reshaping both online and offline consumption scenarios, enhancing consumer engagement and satisfaction[16] - The Z generation and younger elderly populations are becoming the main consumer forces, driving demand for products that align with their values and emotional needs[26] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The transition from an incremental consumption market to a high-quality development phase is driven by the need to address product homogeneity and enhance consumer experience[18] - The increasing middle-income population, projected to exceed 400 million by 2025, is expected to provide sustained momentum for consumption growth[20] - New consumption brands like Mixue Ice City, Pop Mart, and Laopuhuang are thriving due to their unique IPs and precise market positioning, demonstrating strong revenue growth[41]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Strategy - The article emphasizes the need to boost domestic consumption, noting that China's consumption rate lags behind developed countries by 10-30 percentage points, particularly in service consumption[1] - Short-term measures include optimizing supply and reducing restrictions to enhance the availability of quality consumer goods and services[1] - Long-term strategies focus on increasing residents' income and improving the share of labor remuneration in national income distribution[1] Group 2: Investment Expansion - The report advocates for effective investment expansion, particularly in infrastructure, while maintaining a balance to avoid excessive investment[2] - Key investment areas include urban renewal, strategic transportation corridors, new energy systems, and major water conservancy projects[2] - The government plans to implement significant projects in consumer-related sectors, such as elderly care and health services, to support consumption[2] Group 3: Policy Developments - A recent plan aims to create three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, focusing on areas like elderly products and smart connected vehicles[2] - The government has allocated 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan in special bonds for "hard investment" projects in the past two years[2] - The report highlights the importance of enhancing the efficiency of investment returns and addressing the issues of "heavy investment, light returns" in certain sectors[2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation plan by six departments to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming for significant structural optimization by 2027 and a high-quality development pattern by 2030 [1][2] - The plan sets two main goals: to create three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, and to establish a mutually reinforcing interaction between supply and demand by 2030 [1][2] - The current consumer market in China is experiencing accelerated upgrades and faster segmentation, with diverse demands for personalized, high-quality, intelligent, and green products, while facing structural contradictions due to oversupply of homogeneous and low-end products [1] Group 2 - The plan focuses on the "silver economy" and children's products, targeting the growing elderly population and increasing birth rates as significant growth opportunities [2] - Key areas highlighted in the plan include smart connected vehicles, consumer electronics, smart wearables, and civilian drones, aligning with the development direction of new productive forces [2] - Cultural elements are integrated into products, with an emphasis on transforming traditional aesthetics and heritage skills into marketable goods, aiming to boost consumer confidence and drive consumption through cultural identity [2][3]