文 |小戎 哈喽，大家好，小戎这篇楼市评论，主要分析2025年楼市分化加剧，核心城市回暖、三四线城市遇冷，新房二手房走势不一，咱们看看这"冰与火"背后的门 道。 以前买房跟开盲盒似的，闭眼冲都能赚，现在楼市直接上演"冰火两重天"，简直比电视剧还刺激！ 在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出更优质的内容 房价集体"降温" 国家统计局的数据一出来，直接给大家整明白了： 2025年10月全国房价集体"降温"，一线城市新房环比跌0.3%，二三线城市更是跌得没眼看，但偏偏上海 新房逆势暴涨5.7%，这操作就像全班都考不及格，就它拿了满分，简直是"逆子中的孝子"，独树一帜到离谱！ 现在买房哪儿是选房啊，分明是选"人生难度"，核心城市是"简单模式"，三四线城市直接"地狱模式"开局。 2025年一季度，一线城市房价环比增速连4个月为正，成交面积同比涨了17.1%，之前还是-11.0%呢，反转比电视剧还快，反观二线城市还在-8.6%的负增长 里打转，三线城市看似涨了8.5%，实则根基比纸还薄，风一吹就晃。 上海更是把"主角光环"焊在身上了，3月和5月新房价格都涨0.7%，同期北京、广 ...

在深圳，多个被业内称为"顶豪"的项目在年底轮番登场，有望拉升楼市热度。另一边，一线城市的豪宅 市场也持续活跃。在业内人士看来，豪宅市场热点依然集中在一线城市和少数强二线城市的核心区域， 区域分化将更加明显。 近日，深圳市房地产信息平台官网发布后海沄玺花园(深圳湾澐玺)项目预售信息。根据公告显示，此次 总计348套住宅获批预售，预售房源为1栋一单元、1栋二单元，建筑面积约209平方米至1150平方米的住 宅产品。据统计，获批预售房源备案均价约每平方米16.8万元。 今年以来，一线城市豪宅市场持续活跃。以上海为例，克而瑞数据显示，2025年前三季度上海总价5000 万元以上的顶级豪宅共成交674套，增幅高达27%。在多城力推低容积率宅地以及取消价格限制的背景 下，一线城市楼市可能还将出现更多高端住宅楼盘排队入市的情况。 有业内人士表示，核心地段豪宅在市场调整期展现出更强的抗跌性，豪宅属性强的新盘依然受到购房者 欢迎，属于市场中"硬通货"。不过，房地产市场的深度分化是市场的关键特征，特别是豪宅和普通住宅 的分化。对于豪宅市场而言，热点依然集中在一线城市和少数强二线城市的核心区域，区域分化将更加 明显。 中指研究院认 ...

11月21日，合肥土地市场迎来一场备受关注的土拍。本次出让的三宗住宅地块共计487.3亩，最终全部以底价成交，总成交金额约17.5亿元。 瑶海区YH202507号地块由中建国际与瑶海城市更新联合摘得，楼面价5093.8元/平方米；经开区两宗相邻地块则被海恒集团旗下公司收入囊中。值得 注意的是，三宗地块溢价率均为零，反映出当前房企拿地态度趋于谨慎。 | 地块编号 | 地块位置 | 出让面积 | 用地性质 | 容积率 | 起始价 成交价 | 楼面地价 | 溢价率 | 竞得单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (m2) | | | (万元) (力元) | (7C/m') | (%) | | | 場海区 | 理海区长江东路以 | 67832.2 | 居住 | 2.4 | 82926 82926.3 5093.8 | | 0.0 | 合肥江程建设有限公司 【中建国际& 瑶海城市 | | YH202507号 | 北, 阜甫山路以东 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 更新】 | | 经开区 | ...

别看供应减少了，竞拍的成交量却一点没少。累计成交5169套，环比还逆势上涨了3%，连续3个月站稳5000套以上。 点击【樱桃大房子】关注并 今年10月，新房、二手房市场冷清收场；法拍房市场却颇有热度。 据统计，10月法拍房挂拍2.9万套，供应量环比大幅下降31%，同比下降13%，创下半年以来新低。 以前大家一听法拍房就摇头，觉得"水深"、"麻烦"、"不吉利"。 如今，这是要逆天改命？ 深扒数据，却是冰火两重天。 一边是成交率迎来回升。全国平均成交率21%，平均每5套就有1套能成交，重回年内均线水平。 另一边是竞拍热度延续低位，平均折价率增高。法拍房成交房源的溢价中位数仅9.7%，变卖房源折价率增加最为显著。 换言之，被逼到"变卖"这一步的房子，房东（或银行）就在挥泪斩仓。 34%的房源底价成交，创年内新高。仅有5.3%的房源出价次数超100次，创年内新低。 这样一片寒意中，居然爆出来一个王炸案例。 日前，深圳南山区华侨城纯水岸一栋独栋别墅成功拍卖。起拍价2.15亿元，历经118次出价鏖战，单次加价幅度达百万级别，最终以约3.65亿元的价格竞拍 成功，溢价率接近70%，单价高达约57万元/㎡。 这一价格不仅刷新 ...

如果要用一句话形容当下的楼市，那就是——牌局已经进入"明牌时刻"，所有底牌都摊开在桌面上。 过去买房像猜盲盒，政策、涨跌、价值，全凭感觉和运气；如今买房像看说明书，方向、规则、底线，写得清清楚楚。从中央定调到地方落地，房地产从未 如此透明、如此直白、如此不绕弯子。 无论你准备买房，还是卖房，都必须读懂这场"明牌时代"的新规则。否则，一步走错，满盘皆输。 以前的楼市像天气，说变就变，一个政策能点燃市场，一则传闻也能引发恐慌。如今，政策方向、市场格局、产品价值都趋于稳定透明，普通人也能看懂楼 市的基本逻辑。 政策不再"一刀切"，而是明确支持改善型需求：低密社区、大平层、第四代住宅等高品质产品被频频点名。这意味着，楼市正从"有房住"转向"住好房"。 普通人不用研究太深，只要看懂这几条，就抓住了关键： 首付比例大幅下调：首套、二套最低15%，而几年前二套首付普遍在40%以上。 公积金政策加码：贵阳将普通家庭公积金贷款额度提至100万，多子女家庭可达120万，利率也持续走低。 契税优惠：贵阳首套140㎡以内契税按1%执行； 过去"松紧无常"，如今主旋律清晰：稳楼市、活交易、降负担。各地出台的不再是零散政策，而是"工具箱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing significant fragmentation, with stark contrasts between first-tier cities and lower-tier cities, leading to a re-evaluation of property values and a shift in purchasing logic [3][10]. Policy Shift - The 2025 real estate policies have moved away from a "one-size-fits-all" approach, focusing on "precise support" rather than broad stimulation, with measures such as lowering the first home loan interest rate to a historical low of 3.25% [3][4]. - Local governments are implementing various policies to stabilize the market, including increasing loan limits and reducing down payment ratios [3]. Regional Disparities - There is a pronounced divide in the real estate market, with cities like Hegang and Tieling seeing drastic price drops, while luxury properties in Shanghai and Hong Kong remain in high demand [4][8]. - In the first quarter of 2025, new home sales in first-tier cities increased by 44%, while sales in third and fourth-tier cities fell by 20% [6]. Supply and Demand Restructuring - The total unsold residential property in China reached 760 million square meters, with a significant concentration of inventory in less desirable areas, while core urban areas face a shortage of quality housing [6][8]. - New regulations have increased the height standards for residential projects, making higher-quality properties more desirable [6]. Decision-Making Logic Transformation - The era of "buying property blindly for profit" has ended, with a shift towards need-based purchasing, particularly among younger demographics seeking properties with essential attributes like proximity to public transport and schools [9][10]. - Investment demand has decreased, with the proportion of investment-driven purchases falling below 12% [9]. Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a dual reality where properties in some regions are being sold at steep discounts, while high-end projects in major cities are highly sought after, leading to a distorted market perception [8][10]. - The ongoing financialization of core assets in first-tier cities raises concerns about resource inequality, as properties in lower-tier cities may become "negative assets" [10].

Core Insights - The luxury real estate market in Guangzhou is experiencing a significant surge, highlighted by the record-breaking sales of the "Yuexi Bay" project, which achieved a single-day sales figure of 10.6 billion yuan, setting a new national record for single-project sales in 2025 [1][2] Company Overview - The average transaction price for the Yuexi Bay project is 170,000 yuan per square meter, with the highest transaction price exceeding 300,000 yuan per square meter [2] - The project is strategically located in the "Golden Triangle" area of Tianhe District, surrounded by major business districts, making it a highly sought-after property [5] - The land for Yuexi Bay was acquired by Poly Developments for 11.755 billion yuan, with a floor price of 66,957 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 33.35% premium [5] Financial Performance - Poly Developments reported a revenue increase of 30.65% year-on-year to 56.865 billion yuan in Q3, but faced a net loss of 778 million yuan, indicating a significant decline in profitability [9] - For the first three quarters of the year, the company achieved a total revenue of 173.722 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.929 billion yuan, down 75.31% year-on-year [9] - The company has adjusted its investment strategy, focusing on core cities, with 92% of sales contributions coming from 38 key cities in the first half of 2025 [10] Market Trends - The luxury housing market is showing signs of resilience, with a notable increase in sales of high-end properties in core cities, while ordinary residential projects are struggling [12] - In the first half of 2025, the number of luxury homes sold for over 10 million yuan in 20 key cities reached 21,000 units, a 21% increase year-on-year, significantly outpacing the average growth of 5% for new residential properties [12][13] - The market is characterized by a "strong ends, weak middle" trend, with significant growth in the sales of properties priced between 10 million and 30 million yuan, and a 51% increase in properties over 50 million yuan [15]

Core Insights - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are experiencing significant changes, reflecting deeper market logic shifts that require attention to the real needs and feelings of residents rather than just economic metrics [1][9] Employment Market - The job market in Shanghai and Shenzhen is polarized, with high-end positions facing intense competition, while basic manufacturing and service jobs struggle to attract workers [3] - For example, a factory in Shenzhen offers a monthly salary of 8,000 yuan but still cannot find workers, indicating a mismatch between educational output and industry demand [3] Real Estate Market - There is a stark divide in the real estate market, with luxury properties in Shanghai seeing a 15% increase in sales volume year-on-year, while demand for affordable housing has dropped by 22% [3] - In Shenzhen, the average price of second-hand homes has decreased from 83,000 yuan per square meter at its peak to 65,000 yuan, yet ordinary buyers still find it unaffordable [3] Consumer Behavior - There is a trend of consumption downgrade and increased savings, with luxury goods sales in Shanghai dropping by 8% year-on-year, while sales of fast-moving consumer goods under 100 yuan rose by 25% [5] - The proportion of residents saving money has increased to 38%, with families saving an average of 2,000 yuan more per month compared to before [5] Talent Migration - A "reverse siphon" effect is occurring, with more young people leaving first-tier cities for second-tier cities, as evidenced by a 45% increase in those returning to seek jobs in second-tier cities from Shenzhen [7] - The willingness of fresh graduates in Shanghai to stay has fallen below 60%, driven by high living costs and pressures in first-tier cities [7] Conclusion - The four phenomena observed in Shanghai and Shenzhen are indicative of a fundamental change in market dynamics, emphasizing the need for urban development to balance economic growth with the well-being of residents [9]

点击【樱桃大房子】关注并 随着10月落幕，"金九银十"正式收官，几家欢喜几家愁。 先说说"愁"的这边，看下十月的总体成绩单，真让人糟心。 根据中指、克而瑞数据，今年10月，新房成交环比微增1%，同比下降36%。TOP100房企实现销售操盘金额2530亿元，环比增长0.1%，同比却暴减 41.9%。 为什么同比都是断崖下跌？ 一是去年"9·26"新政把市场短暂拉高，把基数顶了上去，二来也是今年这个"银十"确实成色不足，表现平平。 从前10个月累计来看，30个监测城市累计成交9825万平方米，累计同比跌幅由上月2%增至7%。百强房企实现销售操盘金额25766.6亿元，同比减少16%， 降幅相较于前9月扩大4.2个百分点，是2019年至今最惨纪录。 再把"金九"的成绩单也拉出来回顾一下。 其实，单看9月数据还行。TOP100房企实现销售操盘金额2527.8亿元，环比增长22.1%，同比增长0.4%，这个同比止跌，是因为去年的9月基数太低造成 的。从累计业绩来看，百强房企实现销售操盘金额23236.6亿元，同比下降11.8%，降幅略微收窄了1.3个百分点。 9月那一点点"同比止跌"，全靠去年同期的低谷衬托，并不代表行 ...

Group 1 - The era of rapidly rising housing prices has ended, with a shift towards a more rational market where price appreciation is based on value rather than scarcity [3][5] - Future housing prices are likely to stabilize with some areas experiencing slow declines, while core locations and properties with good amenities will still hold value [5][9] - The market is transitioning from a focus on new homes to a competitive environment for second-hand homes, leading to increased buyer leverage [7][9] Group 2 - Young people's attitudes towards homeownership have changed, with many now viewing renting as a viable lifestyle choice rather than a temporary solution [10][13] - The rental market is expected to mature, with more stable rental conditions and better tenant protections, making it an attractive option for those not looking to buy [11][13] - Population movement is increasingly influencing property values, with demand concentrated in first and strong second-tier cities, while lower-tier cities struggle [15][17] Group 3 - The real estate market is becoming more localized, with property values reflecting the economic vitality and population trends of specific cities [15][17] - The ability to identify valuable properties will depend on understanding local market dynamics and demographic trends, rather than just price [19]