新华财经北京11月21日电（王姝睿）欧元区11月商业活动稳步增长，显示出经济韧性。分析称，企业信 心的改善表明欧元区经济动能有望继续保持，叠加通胀前景趋于平衡，欧洲央行2026年可能进入利率稳 定期。 欧元区11月综合PMI处于扩张区间 今年以来，尽管全球不确定性居高不下，欧元区依然展现出韧性，数据显示，欧元区11月综合PMI初值 从10月逾两年高点的52.5小幅降至11月的52.4，略低于52.5的预期，但仍高于50荣枯线，显示经济持续 扩张。 欧元区服务业扩张速度创下一年半来最快水平，新订单稳健增长构成支撑。欧元区11月服务业PMI初值 升至53.1，高于10月的53及预期的52.8。就业持续增长但幅度有限，显示企业招聘更趋谨慎。投入成本 加速上升，产出价格通胀放缓至2021年4月以来最低水平。商业信心微幅下滑，表明企业保持乐观但对 前景预期略有降温。 不过，需求疲软使制造业重新陷入萎缩。欧元区11月制造业PMI初值降至49.7，低于10月的50及预期的 50.2。汉堡商业银行经济学家指出，制造业自今年3月以来始终缺乏明确方向，整体状况未见改善。新 订单与就业双双下降，制造业就业已连续两年半环比下滑。产出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's GDP growth in Q3 2023 was 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, slightly above market expectations, but the economic recovery remains fragile with significant disparities among member states [1][4]. Economic Performance - Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% in Q3 2023, compared to 0.1% in the previous quarter, while EU GDP increased by 0.3% [1]. - Year-on-year growth for the Eurozone slowed from 1.5% in Q2 to 1.3% in Q3, and for the EU from 1.6% to 1.5% [1]. - Germany's GDP showed zero growth, while France and Spain experienced growth rates of 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively [1][2]. Sectoral Disparities - The economic performance within the Eurozone is uneven, with Southern European countries like France and Spain benefiting from tourism and manufacturing recovery, while industrial economies like Germany face stagnation due to weak exports [1][2]. - Germany's manufacturing sector is under pressure from high energy costs and external demand weakness, leading to a slowdown in key industries such as automotive and chemicals [2]. External Environment - The trade relationship between the US and EU has shown signs of improvement, with a recent agreement to reduce tariffs, although significant tariffs on steel and aluminum remain [3]. - Despite the easing of trade tensions, European exporters still face challenges due to high inflation and tightening policies in recent years [3]. Future Outlook - According to forecasts, Eurozone GDP growth is expected to reach 1.3% in 2025, slowing to 1.1% in 2026, with potential recovery contingent on effective fiscal policies and ECB measures [4]. - The ECB's cautious approach to monetary policy aims to balance inflation control with economic growth, indicating a gradual recovery may be on the horizon [4].

Core Insights - The Eurozone economy expanded at its fastest pace since May 2023 in October, breaking a low-growth pattern earlier in the year, driven by a rebound in service sector activity and improved demand [1][2] - The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose from 51.2 in September to 52.5 in October, marking the highest level in 29 months and indicating growth for the tenth consecutive month [1] - The service sector PMI for October was reported at 53, exceeding expectations, while new orders surged to a two-and-a-half-year high, primarily driven by services [1] Group 1 - Spain led with a Composite PMI of 56.0, the best performance in 10 months, while Germany's index rose to 53.9, the highest in nearly two and a half years [2] - Italy and Ireland recorded robust growth with PMIs of 53.1 and 53.7 respectively, while France remained in contraction territory with a PMI of 47.7, the lowest in eight months [2] - Overall employment growth accelerated to the highest level in 16 months, reversing a slight decline in September, driven by increased hiring in the service sector [2] Group 2 - Input cost inflation for the composite index fell to the lowest level in three months, while the pace of increase in selling prices reached a seven-month high [2] - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates at 2% for the third consecutive meeting, indicating a stable policy environment amid steady economic growth and inflation near the 2% target [2]

Core Insights - The Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, while the EU GDP increased by 0.3% [1] - Year-on-year, the Eurozone GDP rose by 1.3%, and the EU GDP grew by 1.5% in Q3 2025 [1] - Sweden recorded the highest growth among member states at +1.1%, followed by Portugal at +0.8% and the Czech Republic at +0.7% [1] - Germany and Italy did not achieve any growth in Q3 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the EU economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, with GDP growth rates improving in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter [1][2][3] Group 2 - In the third quarter, the Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while the EU overall saw a growth of 0.3%, an increase from the previous quarter's growth rates of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively [1] - Year-on-year, the Eurozone's GDP growth was 1.3%, and the EU's was 1.5%, which is a slight decline from the previous quarter's growth rates of 1.5% and 1.6% [2] - Among member states, Sweden led with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1%, followed by Portugal at 0.8% and the Czech Republic at 0.7%. Conversely, Lithuania experienced a decline of 0.2%, while Ireland and Finland both saw a slight decrease of 0.1% [2]

Core Insights - Eurozone's Q3 GDP growth exceeded market expectations, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2%, surpassing the forecast of 0.1% and improving from Q2's growth of 0.1% [2] - France's economy showed significant growth, with a Q3 GDP increase of 0.5%, marking the fastest growth rate in 2023, despite recent political turmoil [2][5] - Germany's economy stagnated in Q3, with GDP remaining flat, avoiding technical recession but continuing a trend of low or zero growth for 14 consecutive quarters [2][7] Economic Performance by Member States - Portugal emerged as the best-performing economy in the Eurozone with a Q3 GDP growth of 0.8%, driven by strong domestic demand and tourism [5] - In the broader EU context, Sweden led with a growth rate of 1.1%, followed by the Czech Republic at 0.7%, while Lithuania experienced a contraction of 0.2% [5] - Eurozone's year-on-year GDP growth slowed from 1.5% to 1.3%, slightly above the economists' prediction of 1.2% [5] Economic Outlook and Challenges - Consumer demand showed initial signs of improvement in Q3, supported by easing inflation and slight wage increases, although manufacturing and exports continued to struggle due to weak global demand and ongoing cost pressures [6] - Germany's economic outlook for Q4 appears more positive, with plans for increased defense and infrastructure spending, alongside new tax incentives for businesses showing early signs of effectiveness [7] - The ongoing poor performance of Germany and France is a significant drag on the overall Eurozone economy, with both countries vying for the title of "the sick man of Europe" [7]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain key interest rates unchanged, indicating a potential mild growth in the Eurozone economy despite facing multiple challenges [1][2] - The ECB forecasts a 1.2% economic growth rate for the Eurozone in 2025, an increase from the previous prediction of 0.9% [1] - Political instability in major Eurozone economies, such as France, raises concerns about debt levels and market confidence, impacting economic stability [2][3] Group 2 - The Eurozone's inflation rate is projected to be 2.1% in 2025, close to the ECB's target of 2%, but faces dual risks from a strong euro and trade tensions [2] - The ECB's future challenges may stem more from political and fiscal risks rather than economic issues, as structural reforms are lagging [3] - The ongoing trade negotiations with the US highlight Europe's struggle to assert itself against American pressure, reflecting a broader issue of geopolitical vulnerability [3]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on September 11 to maintain three key interest rates: the deposit rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.4% [1] - The ECB's latest forecast predicts the Eurozone inflation rate to be 2.1% in 2025, decreasing to 1.7% in 2026, and then rising to 1.9% in 2027. The core inflation rate is expected to reach 2.4% in 2025, drop to 1.9% in 2026, and further decline to 1.8% in 2027 [1] - Economic growth in the Eurozone is projected to be 1.2% for this year, with an expected growth of 1% in 2026 and an increase to 1.3% in 2027. The growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward from 0.9% in June [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain its three key interest rates unchanged during its monetary policy meeting, which was the first after the recent US-EU trade agreement, amid concerns about economic growth and inflation stability in the Eurozone [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The ECB's deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [2]. - Since starting the rate cut process in June 2024, the ECB has lowered rates eight times, with the last decision in July 2024 to keep rates unchanged [2]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The ECB maintains a medium-term inflation target of 2% for the Eurozone, with projected overall inflation rates of 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027 [2]. - The latest economic growth forecast for the Eurozone is 1.2% for 2025, an increase from the previous prediction of 0.9% made in June [2]. - The Eurozone economy grew by 0.7% in the first half of the year, supported by resilient demand [2]. Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - Higher tariffs, a stronger euro, and increased global competition are expected to suppress growth in the Eurozone [3][4]. - Geopolitical tensions and potential deterioration in international trade relations pose significant uncertainties that could further inhibit exports, investment, and consumption [4]. - The recent political turmoil in France, including the resignation of former Prime Minister Béru, raises concerns about debt levels and political stability in the Eurozone's second-largest economy [4]. Group 4: Future Challenges - The ECB's primary challenge may shift from inflation to political and fiscal risks within Europe [5]. - Analysts suggest that while the threshold for further rate cuts is high, the ECB may be forced to reconsider its stance in the coming months if inflation remains below target or economic growth stagnates [4].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde indicated that economic growth in the Eurozone may slow this quarter, despite a recent trade agreement with the U.S. reducing uncertainty, global trade conditions remain unclear [1] - Lagarde noted that the current 15% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on most European goods are slightly higher than the ECB's June assumptions but are "far below" the extreme rates envisioned by the bank [1] - The ECB is expected to maintain the deposit rate at 2% during the September meeting, following a pause in rate changes after eight consecutive cuts since June 2024 [1] - Lagarde mentioned that the ECB staff will consider the impact of the EU-U.S. trade agreement on the Eurozone economy in the upcoming September economic forecasts, which will guide future decisions [1] Group 2 - The Eurozone economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in the second quarter, demonstrating resilience amid trade and geopolitical pressures, with inflation hovering around the ECB's target of 2% [1] - Lagarde emphasized the Eurozone's resilience in the face of a challenging global environment earlier this year [2] - Lagarde confirmed her commitment to completing her term as ECB President, which will last until October 2027, amid rumors of her potential early departure [2]