专访高净值组第六名王然 "今年得知比赛结果时，情绪上并没有太大波动。"从全国期货实盘赛高净值组中脱颖而出的交易者王然 告诉期货日报记者。也许是多年的交易生涯早已磨平了情绪的棱角，但在期货这个被数字和图表充斥的 世界里，这仍是一份迟来的告慰。"当时很想能够和另外一个世界的父亲分享这个消息。"他坦言。 在比赛中，他主要选择黄金、白银和豆粕这三个品种。"黄金、白银走的是宏观经济、地缘政治逻辑， 波段周期长、趋势明显，易于把握。"而选择豆粕，则源于他过去在农产品现货交易中心的工作经历， 对农产品价格波动有深入了解。 成长之路 王然的交易生涯并非一帆风顺。大学毕业后，他就职于国内一家商品现货交易中心，首次接触类似期货 的交易机制。他记忆中最早的风险教育是"穿仓"——亏完本金。 而真正的重击来自2008年的豆油行情。"账户资金从十倍收益到断臂求生。"王然回忆道，"这段经历让 我深刻地认识到了物极必反的道理。" 在迷茫期，两件事改变了他的交易路径。一是读了傅海棠老师的《一个农民的亿万传奇》。他说，这本 书让他认识到普通人在期货市场也有成功的可能，他的交易风格也从技术分析转向基本面分析，重拾了 做交易的信心。二是认真学习了巴 ...

在股指期货交易里，仓位控制这事儿可太关键了！要是没弄明白啥时候该轻仓、啥时候该重仓，那可就容易在市场里栽跟头。 一、交易模式决定仓位策略 其实，重仓还是轻仓，很大程度上取决于你的交易模式。要是你做的是短线交易，那短线行情其实比长线更好预判。有些时 候，一个突破或者一个转折，持续时间可能就那么一会儿。从短线的角度看，当日就可能出现很棒的交易信号。 比如说，当出现突破行情，而且量能配合得很好，形成了起爆点；又或者日线级别出现了比较清晰的 123K 线信号。一旦出现这 类信号，就别再犹豫等加仓机会了，直接上仓位。很多时候，市场根本不会给你加仓的时间，要是错过这些好信号，就等于白 白丢掉了赚钱的机会。所以，遇到这种情况，果断重仓，先确保短线能做出明显的利润。 二、好的入场时机至关重要 我一直强调，在交易里，入场时机的重要性起码占整体的一半。可不是像有些人说的"会买是徒弟，会卖是师傅"，实际上买卖 同样重要，甚至好的入场时机有时候更为关键，尤其是在你打算用大仓位交易的时候。 不过，重仓交易要是面临止损，那必须坚决执行。哪怕亏损有点多，也得果断走掉。因为重仓的时候，我们根本没有扛单的底 气。很多人扛单，一开始都是轻仓，觉 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the success of a trader, Pu Yuhan, who excelled in the 12th Global Derivatives Trading Competition through a disciplined approach focused on trend-following and light position management [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Strategy - Pu Yuhan attributes her success to a mechanical execution of a "trend + light position" system, emphasizing that there are no "eureka moments" in trading [1]. - The key to her performance was a position in A50 index futures, which she entered after analyzing macro policy signals and market sentiment, predicting a bullish trend [1]. - During market fluctuations, she maintained composure due to her light position strategy, which kept volatility within manageable limits [1]. Group 2: Market Environment - The current market environment is favorable for trend-following strategies, with the A50 index reflecting macroeconomic conditions and benefiting from dual drivers of policy expectations and fundamental recovery [2]. - Pu Yuhan has shifted her focus from frequent trading to concentrating on major trends, believing that patience in holding positions is more effective than chasing short-term fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Trading Philosophy - Pu Yuhan's trading philosophy centers on the concept of a "prolonged battle," emphasizing that long-term survival in the market leads to compounding benefits [2]. - She views trading as a marathon requiring patience and perseverance, with a mindset shift from seeking quick profits to pursuing stable long-term returns being crucial [2]. Group 4: Risk Management - Pu Yuhan considers "stop-loss" as a lifeline, always pre-setting stop-loss levels to protect her account from significant losses [3]. - She emphasizes the importance of "profit withdrawal" in risk management, which helps dilute risks and allows for a more composed trading mindset [3]. - Adhering to a "pyramid scaling" principle, she starts with light positions and only increases her stake when market trends are confirmed, maintaining strict limits on total position size [3]. Group 5: Advice for New Traders - Pu Yuhan advises new traders to practice with "money they can afford to lose" and to focus on survival in the initial years rather than seeking quick wealth [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of participating in stock market investments as a means of asset allocation and personal growth, suggesting that early involvement can lead to better learning experiences and financial outcomes [3][10][22]. Investment Philosophy - The stock market is portrayed as a necessary arena for asset allocation, where holding only cash equates to betting against future economic growth [5]. - Real estate investment, particularly through high leverage, is framed as a long-term bet on regional prosperity and population inflow [6]. - Continuous education and skill acquisition are discussed as investments that may depreciate over time, highlighting the risks of relying solely on a single skill [7][8]. Learning Through Experience - The article argues that engaging in stock market trading enhances cognitive and analytical skills, allowing individuals to better navigate societal scams and emotional manipulations [8][9]. - It posits that financial market investment serves as a rapid path to personal development and understanding of the complex interplay of economic, political, and social factors [9]. Importance of Early Involvement - Early participation in the stock market is encouraged, as the cost of mistakes is lower when financial stakes are smaller [10][11]. - The analogy of children learning to walk is used to illustrate that early failures lead to quicker recovery and learning [10]. Feedback and Adaptation - Successful investment is linked to the ability to learn from failures and adapt strategies accordingly, emphasizing the importance of feedback in the learning process [12][13]. - The article warns against the pitfalls of not utilizing past experiences, comparing it to a robot learning to walk through trial and error [14]. Resilience and Growth - The narrative stresses that resilience in the face of setbacks is crucial for personal and professional growth, with a focus on maintaining a positive attitude during challenges [18]. - It highlights that true strength is demonstrated by how one responds to adversity, rather than merely achieving success [18]. Experience vs. Talent - The article contrasts fields where youthful talent thrives, such as mathematics and programming, with those where experience is paramount, like law and management [19][20]. - It concludes that trading is an experience-based field where understanding risk and managing investments is critical for long-term success [22]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The "雪球三分法" (Snowball Three-Part Method) is introduced as a strategy for asset allocation, advocating for diversification across assets, markets, and time to optimize returns and manage risks [24][25]. - This method aims to achieve a balanced investment portfolio that can withstand market fluctuations and provide long-term growth [25].

Core Insights - The article highlights the journey of a trader, Gao Miao, who emphasizes the importance of self-reflection, connection with peers, and self-awareness in trading success [1][2][3] Trading Philosophy - Gao Miao believes that the core of his success lies not in pinpointing exact entry points but in holding onto profitable positions [1] - He uses valuation as a key reference for trading decisions, focusing on whether a commodity is overvalued or undervalued, and then applying technical analysis for entry and exit points [1] Lessons from Failure - Gao Miao experienced a significant loss of 3 million yuan due to a misguided short position on soda ash, which he attributed to his unwillingness to acknowledge mistakes [2] - This failure prompted a deep self-analysis and led to the establishment of a new trading system that includes mandatory stop-loss orders and a focus on position management [2] Trading System Evolution - Gao Miao's trading system continues to evolve, but he adheres to two fundamental principles: thorough research and maintaining composure amidst external distractions, and setting stop-loss orders upon opening positions [3] - He emphasizes the importance of position management as a means to control losses and maintain a balanced mindset [3] Future Aspirations - Gao Miao views his recent award as a new and challenging beginning, motivating him to aim for better drawdown control and sustainable account growth towards financial freedom [3] - He believes that true wisdom in trading lies in the ability to respond to market changes rather than attempting to predict them [3] Advice for New Traders - Gao Miao advises new traders to respect the market and trade with light positions [4]

Market Analysis - The analysis indicates that Bitcoin's recent price action shows signs of weakness, with a potential false breakout pattern forming on the daily chart [1] - The analyst expresses uncertainty about Bitcoin's short-term direction, noting conflicting signals from the daily chart and broader market trends [1] - The report suggests that any short-term rallies in Bitcoin should be viewed as opportunities to consider short positions [1] - The analysis points out that Bitcoin is currently testing a key hourly support level, and a failure to hold this level could lead to further declines [1] - The analyst anticipates a potential upward move to test resistance levels and fill gaps before a larger downward move [1] Trading Strategy - The analyst suggests that traders who missed earlier shorting opportunities may consider adding to their positions during rallies, with appropriate stop-loss measures [1] - The report advises against chasing short positions at current levels, suggesting waiting for pullbacks to key support levels [1] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of considering potential stop-loss points when opening new positions [1] Overall Sentiment - The analyst expresses a bearish outlook for Bitcoin in 2026, anticipating profitable shorting opportunities [1] - The report suggests that the current market behavior may indicate distribution rather than accumulation, with higher trading volume during down days [2]

Core Insights - The gold market has seen a significant surge, with spot gold prices reaching $4,100 per ounce and an eight-day consecutive rise, indicating a potential overbought condition as reflected by the RSI index hitting 75 [1][3] - Central banks have net purchased over 600 tons of gold in 2025, suggesting a long-term bullish trend for gold, while short-term volatility necessitates a cautious approach to investment [1][3] Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to adopt a staggered buying approach within the $4,000-$4,010 range, with a stop-loss set at $3,950 and a target price of $4,160, emphasizing the importance of not investing all at once [1][3] - The RSI indicator, which indicates overbought conditions when above 70, suggests that new investors should be cautious as gold prices may experience significant fluctuations [3][4] Trading Tools and Platforms - The use of advanced trading platforms like Jinsheng, which provide real-time data updates and alerts, can significantly enhance trading efficiency, allowing investors to capitalize on rapid price movements [4][5] - Jinsheng's dynamic risk control features enable automatic stop-loss execution, helping investors manage their risk effectively by limiting losses to 2% of their account balance [7][8] Learning and Practice - New investors are encouraged to utilize simulated trading accounts to practice strategies like staggered buying before committing real funds, which can help build confidence and understanding of market dynamics [9] - The low entry threshold for trading, with a minimum investment of 0.01 lots, allows small investors to participate in the gold market while following institutional strategies [9] Platform Selection Criteria - When choosing a trading platform, it is crucial to verify the platform's membership with the Hong Kong Gold Exchange and ensure that funds are bank-custodied for security and faster withdrawal processes [10]

买入是假设会拉盘，因为看到大户的空投卡了不少，以及50%的空投选项要等待三天才可以申领，退出的时间点是比较确定的，三天之内走可以避免这一波抛压。所以我当时在找的就是进入的位置。如果不拉盘，就用止损来兜底。被干了 别跌了 马上打止损了😇 ...

Group 1 - The profitability of shorting alumina futures is determined solely by the "price difference" [1] - The profit and loss formula for shorting is: Profit/Loss (CNY/ton) = Opening Price - Closing Price - Fees [1] - A short position incurs losses only when the closing price exceeds the opening price [1] Group 2 - Factors that can drive alumina prices up, leading to potential losses for short sellers, include: sudden reluctance to sell in the spot market, environmental production limits in the north, and fluctuations in bauxite supply [2] - Other contributing factors include concentrated purchasing by electrolytic aluminum plants and inventory levels dropping below safety thresholds [2] - Insufficient registered warehouse receipts in the delivery month can lead to short squeezes by bulls [2] - Macroeconomic factors such as a weakening dollar and a general rise in commodity prices can create emotional premiums [2] - Setting stop-loss orders can limit and control potential losses, ensuring that there is no absolute scenario where "prices can only rise and not fall" [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that trading strategies and tactics are interconnected, and there is no isolated buy or sell action, only an acceptable plan [1] - A reasonable risk-reward ratio should be at least 2:1, meaning a 7% stop-loss should correspond to a 14% profit expectation [1] - For breakout buying, if there is no floating profit within five trading days, it may indicate a wrong choice, and a stop-loss should be considered at a 3-5% loss [1] Group 2 - After achieving a floating profit of over 8%, three tactical options are available: using a 7-8% retracement as a stop-loss threshold, calculating a moving stop-loss based on the breakout candle, or employing the TR holding line as a stop-loss threshold [3] - A stable strong trend stock typically will not easily breach the TR holding line, and when it does, selling can be done in batches or all at once [5] - For most stocks outside of leading stocks, selling a portion of the position after achieving a 20% floating profit is often a good choice, as excessive greed can lead to profit loss [6] Group 3 - The volume-weighted moving average is superior in support and sensitivity compared to EMA and SMA, and practical comparisons are encouraged [8] - Momentum divergence remains an essential technique in selling strategies, with VAD and BIAS indicators being particularly useful for identifying buy and sell timing [10]