1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "wait - and - see" rating for the asphalt industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the previous round, the view was that the production increase rhythm of Venezuela would accelerate, and the external trade pressure on asphalt would ease, leading to a potential decline in asphalt valuation. The strategy of short - allocating the asphalt/crude oil price ratio was recommended to take profit and wait at low levels. In this round, the view is to maintain a wait - and - see stance [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The report presents the recent price trend of the asphalt main contract, and indicates the changes in supply - demand and cost factors during different time periods [13][14] - **Factor Assessment**: For supply, domestic heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate is relatively low, and overseas imports are relatively sluggish. The import window is open, and there is a risk of subsequent import pressure. For demand, the demand for waterproofing membranes is better than expected, and the overall demand is flat. For inventory, the overall inventory is better than before due to trade imports, and the de - stocking expectation is relatively certain. For cost, the upward space of crude oil cost is limited, waiting for the end of geopolitical factors [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The previous strategy of short - allocating the asphalt/crude oil price ratio was recommended to take profit and wait at low levels, and this round maintains a wait - and - see stance [16] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [19][21][23][27] - **Basis Trend**: The basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions are presented [28][29] - **Term Structure**: The term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contract months are shown [31][32] 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: The capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, the production profit of Shandong asphalt, and the relationship between asphalt operation, profit, and crude oil price are presented [36][37] - **Import**: The import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, the import profit of asphalt from different regions, and the cumulative import volume from different countries are shown [39][40][42] - **Valuation Ratio**: The ratios of fuel oil to asphalt and asphalt to Brent are presented [44][45] - **Refinery Profit**: The refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the operation rate and production profit of petroleum coke, are shown [47][48][51] 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: The inventory levels of domestic factories, social inventory, total domestic inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory are presented [55][56] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The quantity of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract are shown [58][59] - **Inventory and Price**: The relationships between inventory and profit, and between profit and price are presented [61][63] 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: The shipment volumes of asphalt by sample enterprises in China, Shandong, East China, and North China regions are presented [67][68][70][72] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of rubber shoe materials, road modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes are presented [77][78][80][83] - **Highway Investment**: The cumulative value of highway construction investment in China, the monthly year - on - year change and monthly value of public fiscal expenditure on transportation, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure are presented [84][85] - **Road - Related Machinery**: The monthly sales volume of road rollers and excavators, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China are presented [87][88] - **Related Consumption**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management industries, and the cumulative value of local government special bond issuance are presented [90][91][92] 3.6 Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: The trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures are presented [95][96][97] 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: The exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain are presented [100][101] - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: From the production process perspective, asphalt can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used in road construction. By use, it is divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [102][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical event's positive impact on asphalt ranks last. When the cost side has a high valuation, it is recommended to take a medium - term short position [16]. - It is likely that the asphalt valuation will decline in the second half of the year. The current independent refinery's operation rate is at a low level, with limited downward space. The return of main refinery capacity and the seasonal low - valuation period will limit the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil), and the weak oscillation of crude oil on the cost side will also restrict the upward space of asphalt's single - side price [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The report provides a price trend chart of the asphalt main contract in the near - month, showing the price changes from 2025/1/1 to 2026/2/25. The factors affecting the price include supply - demand and cost changes [13][14]. - **Factor Assessment and Strategy**: In terms of supply, the domestic heavy - traffic asphalt operation rate has entered the traditional peak season, while overseas imports remain relatively sluggish, and the trade flow from Venezuela has not been fully replaced by Canada, with a neutral outlook. In terms of demand, the demand for waterproofing membranes is better than expected, and the overall demand has slightly recovered compared to previous years, showing a bullish trend. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory is better than before due to trade imports, but the concentrated arrival of goods at ports is expected to suppress inventory reduction in the inland area, with a neutral - bearish outlook. In terms of cost, the upward space of the crude oil cost side is limited, and OPEC is expected to enter the next small - scale production - increase cycle, with a neutral outlook. The previous view was to hold a wait - and - see attitude towards all oil products in the short term, while the current view is to take a medium - term short position when the price is high [16]. - **Medium - term Impact Factors and Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are difficult to drive, and the operation rate of main refineries is expected to recover, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation. However, the significant recovery of local refineries is needed for the valuation to decline, and local refineries are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short and medium term, with a neutral outlook. In terms of demand, the operation rate has improved slightly compared to previous years, but the overall shipment volume is lower than expected. The infrastructure peak season has passed, and the overall demand is expected to be flat, with a neutral - bearish outlook. In terms of cost, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. With the implementation of OPEC's production increase, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly, with a bearish - oscillating outlook. Overall, it is likely that the asphalt valuation will decline in the second half of the year [17]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report presents the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, East China, Northeast China, and North China from 2015 to 2026 [21][22]. - **Basis Trend**: It shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2022 to 2026 [28]. - **Term Structure**: It provides the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts such as 03 - 06, 03 - 05, and 04 - 05 from 2022 to 2026 [31][32]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, the production profit of Shandong asphalt, the relationship between asphalt operation and profit, and the relationship between asphalt profit and crude oil price from 2019 to 2026 [36]. - **Imports**: It presents the import volume of asphalt, diluted asphalt, and the import profit from South Korea and Singapore from 2022 to 2025 [38]. - **Import Volume**: It shows the cumulative import volume of asphalt from South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia, as well as the monthly import volume of Venezuelan oil from 2022 to 2025 [41]. - **Valuation Ratio**: It shows the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt and the ratio of asphalt to Brent from 2022 to 2026 [44]. - **Refinery Profit**: It presents the refining profit of main refineries and Shandong local refineries from 2022 to 2026, as well as the operation rate and production profit of petroleum coke [47][50]. 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It shows the inventory of domestic factories, social inventory, total domestic inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory from 2022 to 2026 [54]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract from 2022 to 2026 [58]. - **Inventory and Price**: It shows the relationship between inventory and profit, and the relationship between profit and price [62]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volume of Chinese sample enterprises, Shandong sample enterprises, East China sample enterprises, and North China sample enterprises from 2023 to 2026 [68]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: It shows the operation rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2022 to 2026 [75][73]. - **Highway Investment**: It shows the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China, the monthly year - on - year change and monthly value of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure from 2016 to 2025 [78]. - **Road - related Machinery**: It shows the monthly sales volume of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China from 2022 to 2026 [81]. - **Related Consumption**: It shows the cumulative year - on - year change of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management, and the cumulative value of local government special - purpose bond issuance from 2023 to 2025 [84][85]. 3.6 Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures from 2022 to 2026 [91]. 3.7 Industry Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industry Chain**: It briefly mentions the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industry chain [96]. - **Asphalt Industry Chain**: From the production process perspective, asphalt can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used in road construction. By use, it can be divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [100].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, with the total domestic asphalt production scheduled for March 2026 at 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 23.0705%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The refineries have increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8]. - The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 21.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 0%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 4%, a month - on - month increase of 4.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points [9]. - The daily asphalt processing profit is - 182.83 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.20%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 64.8129 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - The overall view is that the fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory shows that social and factory inventories are accumulating while port inventory is decreasing, the disk is bullish, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the asphalt 2606 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3609 - 3709 in the short term [9][10]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The total domestic asphalt production scheduled for March 2026 is 2.187 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 23.0705%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 385,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 1.189 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.80%. The refineries have increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 21.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 0%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 4%, a month - on - month increase of 4.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [9]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 182.83 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.20%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 64.8129 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory shows that social and factory inventories are accumulating while port inventory is decreasing, the disk is bullish, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the asphalt 2606 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3609 - 3709 in the short term [9][10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The prices of most contracts have decreased slightly, such as the 06 contract closing at 3660, a decrease of 13 from the previous day, a decline of 0.35% [16]. - **Basis**: On March 5th, the Shandong spot price is 3550 yuan/ton, and the 06 contract basis is - 110 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.096 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.93%; the factory inventory is 729,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.34%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 770,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75% [10][18]. - **Other Data**: The weekly output of sample enterprises is 385,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%; the weekly maintenance volume is 1.189 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.80%; the weekly shipment volume is 130,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend The report provides the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026, which can help analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [20][21][22]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different contracts [25][26]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, which can help analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28][29]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the refining profit margins [31][32][33]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2026, which can help analyze the relative price relationships [35][36]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which can help analyze the regional price differences [38][39]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026, which can help analyze the profitability of asphalt production [41][42]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the profit differences between coking and asphalt production [44][45][46]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2026, which can help analyze the supply situation [47][48]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the inventory situation [50][51]. - **Output**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly output from 2019 to 2026, which can help analyze the production capacity and output changes [53][54]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [57][59]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The report shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2026, which can help analyze the production situation of local refineries [60][61]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report presents the historical trends of weekly capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the production efficiency [63][64]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report shows the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2026, which can help analyze the impact of equipment maintenance on production [66][67]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026, which can help analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [69][70][71]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the overall inventory situation [73][74]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026, which can help analyze the inventory management efficiency [76][77]. - **Import and Export Situation**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import spread from 2019 to 2025, which can help analyze the international trade situation of asphalt [79][80][83]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2026, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in the petroleum coke production process [85][86]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report presents the historical trends of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the overall demand for asphalt [87][88]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, asphalt concrete paver sales, domestic excavator sales, roller sales, excavator monthly working hours, heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream construction situation from 2019 to 2026, which can help analyze the downstream demand for asphalt [90][91][92][94][95][96][98][99][100][102][103][104][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which can help analyze the overall supply - demand situation of asphalt [107][108].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [15] Core Viewpoint - The report maintains the judgment that the production increase rhythm of Venezuela is accelerating. It also believes that the upward space of the cost side is limited, and suggests a short - term wait - and - see attitude towards all oil products [15] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The report presents the trend of the asphalt main contract in the near - month, and marks the changes in supply - demand and cost factors at different time points [13][14] - **Factor Assessment**: Supply is neutral - bullish as the heavy - traffic asphalt utilization rate starts to rise while overall imports decline; demand is bearish as the sub - item starts of the demand side are weak, especially the shoe - material end is weaker than expected and the overall downstream shipment is dull; inventory is neutral - bearish (partially priced) as the overall inventory shows difficulty in destocking, and the social inventory fails to meet the destocking expectation while the domestic total inventory exceeds expectations; cost is neutral - bullish as the crude oil cost stabilizes, and the narrowing of the Merey oil short - term discount leads to cost increase [15] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Maintain the previous view, keep a wait - and - see attitude towards all oil products in the short term [15] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: Presents the daily market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, East China, and North China regions [18][21][28][24] - **Basis Trend**: Shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [30] - **Term Structure**: Displays the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts such as 03 - 05, 04 - 05, and 03 - 06 [33][34] 3. Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: Illustrates the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt, as well as the relationship between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [39][42][43] - **Import**: Shows the import volume of asphalt, diluted asphalt, and the import profit from different regions (East China - South Korea, South China - Singapore), and the cumulative import volume from different countries (South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia) and the monthly import volume of Venezuelan oil [48][51] - **Valuation Ratio**: Presents the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt and asphalt to Brent [54] - **Refinery Profit**: Displays the refining profit of main refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit of petroleum coke [57][60] 4. Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: Shows the domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [65] - **Warehouse Receipt**: Presents the asphalt warehouse receipt and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract [68] - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: Analyzes the relationship between inventory and profit, and profit and price [71] 5. Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: Displays the asphalt shipment volume of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [76][77][81] - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: Shows the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [86][88] - **Highway Investment**: Presents the cumulative value of highway construction investment in transportation fixed - assets, the monthly year - on - year and monthly value of public fiscal expenditure on transportation, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [90][92][96] - **Road - related Machinery**: Displays the monthly sales volume of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in transportation fixed - assets [101][105] - **Related Consumption**: Shows the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management, and the cumulative value of local government special bond issuance [108][109] 6. Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: Presents the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [114][119][117] 7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: Involves exploration and extraction [123][124] - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: From the production process, it can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used in road construction; by use, it is divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [127]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly in early February, with an anti - arbitrage strategy recommended. The current base price is at a moderately low level, and it is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventories available before March. The geopolitical situation has cooled, the cold wave has weakened, and crude oil prices have fallen after rising [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. The operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined last week, and the road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 14% due to funding and weather constraints. The shipments in Shandong decreased significantly, and the national shipments decreased 5.80% to 214,500 tons week - on - week. The asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat and is near the lowest level in recent years. The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil this week, and the asphalt operating rate will remain low [1]. - Demand side: Rigid demand in the north has basically stagnated, but there is demand for stocking and arbitrage. Southern projects are also gradually entering the final stage. The decline in asphalt prices in Shandong is relatively small, and the basis has been repaired and is currently at a moderately low level [1]. 3.2期现行情 - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 1.72% to 3,309 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,283 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,331 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 16,712 to 110,778 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 59 yuan/ton, at a moderately low level [3]. 3.3基本面跟踪 - Supply side: The resumption of production of individual refineries was postponed, and the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage point compared with January - October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 4.7% in January - November 2025. From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 1.1% in January - November 2025. As of the week of January 30, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined, and the road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 14% due to funding and weather constraints. From January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to November, and the recovery of the medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 30, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 13.6% compared with the week of January 23 and is near the lowest level in recent years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report predicts that the valuation of asphalt may decline in the second half of the year. The current independent refinery operations are at a low level, with limited room for further decline. Although there is no significant short - term import - driven factor, the return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will limit the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil). Meanwhile, the weak and volatile cost of crude oil will also restrict the upward movement of asphalt's single - side price [16]. - In the short term, the high - probability and high - winning - rate period for shorting the asphalt/crude oil valuation has passed, and the valuation is currently in the process of repair. Given the weak fundamentals of asphalt itself, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The report presents a chart of the recent monthly trend of the asphalt main contract, showing changes in supply - demand and cost factors over time [13][14]. - **Medium - Term Impact Factor Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and the resumption of major refinery operations will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation, while local refineries are likely to remain relatively sluggish in the short to medium term. Regarding demand, the downstream operating rate has improved slightly compared to previous years, but overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure peak season. In terms of cost, the upward space for oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the wide - range volatility center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly [16]. - **Short - Term Factor Assessment**: Supply shows that the operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt has started to rise, and imports remain strong; demand has entered the off - season, with the demand for rubber shoe materials falling far short of expectations; inventory is slowly decreasing but still below expectations. In terms of cost, the view that oil prices will remain weak at the end of the fourth quarter remains unchanged, but if shale oil production is restricted and there is strong demand in the peak season of the following year and strategic reserves from various countries, a long - term bullish outlook can be considered from the perspective of the shale oil break - even point [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [17]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: It provides price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [20][23][26]. - **Basis Trend**: Displays the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [32]. - **Term Structure**: Presents the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contract months [35][36]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: Shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt, as well as the relationship between asphalt operating rate and profit, and the relationship between asphalt profit and crude oil price [43][46][49]. - **Imports**: Includes the import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, import profit from different regions, and cumulative import volumes from different countries [54][56][62]. - **Valuation Ratio**: Compares the ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [65]. - **Refinery Profit**: Displays the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries [68]. - **Petroleum Coke**: Presents the operating rate and production profit of petroleum coke [71]. 3.4. Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: Includes domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total domestic inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [76]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shows the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract [79]. - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: Presents the relationships between inventory and profit, and between profit and price [82]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: Displays the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [86]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Includes the operating rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [97][100]. - **Highway Investment**: Presents highway construction investment, transportation fiscal expenditure data, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [102][105][112]. - **Road - Related Machinery**: Displays the sales volumes of road - related machinery such as road rollers and excavators, as well as the operating hours of excavators [113][116]. - **Related Consumption**: Includes fixed - asset investment completion data and local government special bond issuance data [120]. 3.6. Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: Displays the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [130][128]. 3.7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: Involves exploration and production links [134]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: From the production process, asphalt can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% of production and mostly used for road construction. By use, it is divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [138].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 24.8%, a 4.2% decrease from the previous week due to some enterprises halting production or switching to other products [4]. - The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 370,000 tons, a 2.2% increase from the previous week. The shipment volume increased significantly in the Northeast and Shandong regions [4]. - Crude oil continued to weaken during the week, and the shipment of asphalt in the north showed signs of acceleration. With mediocre fundamental drivers, asphalt may maintain a weak trend in the short term following crude oil [4]. - The average weekly theoretical profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 571 yuan/ton, a 42 - yuan increase from the previous week. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3,185 yuan/ton, a 38 - yuan decrease from the previous period [4]. - The recommended strategies are: 1) For the single - side operation, no specific strategy is given; 2) For the inter - period operation, take profit on the reverse spread; 3) For the inter - variety operation, go long on BU and short SC [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Supply: The decline in capacity utilization was due to enterprises like Liaoning Zhende, Sinochem Quanzhou, and Yunnan Petrochemical halting asphalt production, and some refineries in East China and Shandong Shengxing switching to producing residual oil [4]. - Demand: In the Northeast, the increase in low - sulfur asphalt production and price cuts by refineries supported the increase in shipment volume. In Shandong, terminal demand and the concentrated delivery of contracts by individual refineries drove the increase in shipment volume [4]. - Viewpoint: The short - term trend of asphalt may be weak following the decline of crude oil [4]. - Valuation: The average price of asphalt decreased, with 6 regions seeing price drops (0.8% - 4.4%) and only 1 region (Shandong) having a 0.2% price increase [4]. - Strategy: As mentioned above, including single - side, inter - period, and inter - variety strategies [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and different types of crude oils. Some raw materials have advantages like not requiring crude oil quotas and being exempt from consumption tax. Different crude oils also have different asphalt yields [7]. - Futures: There are data on the trading volume, open interest, and price trends of asphalt futures, as well as the price trends of related crude oil futures such as Brent, WTI, and SC [9][11]. - Spot: There are data on the prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit margins in Shandong [12]. - Spread: There are data on the basis (e.g., Shandong, North China, Yangtze River Delta) and the inter - month spread of asphalt [14][16]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - Consumption Distribution: The demand for asphalt mainly comes from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), the waterproof market, the marine fuel market, the coking market, and the export market. Seasonal factors also have an impact, but the influence of some markets is relatively small [21]. - Shipment Volume: The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 2.2% week - on - week, with significant increases in the Northeast and Shandong regions [4][25]. - Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 10.6%, a 0.6% decrease both week - on - week and year - on - year. The production enthusiasm of enterprises in Central and North China continued to decline, while the increase in demand in the South was slow [25]. 3.3.2 Supply - Supply Pattern: The supply of asphalt comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports. Different regions and refineries have different characteristics in terms of quotas, production, and inventory [27]. - Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials: There are data on the weekly production volume of asphalt and the weekly port inventory of diluted asphalt. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 5.2% from November 17, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 0.7% [29][30][31]. - Start - up: There are data on the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions (e.g., Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, Central China, South China, Southwest, Northeast) [35][36][38]. - Inventory: There are data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions (e.g., North China, Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, Northeast, South China) [43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On November 12, 2025, BU2512 closed at 3,051 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.56% and a night - session closing price of 3,065 yuan/ton with a 0.46% increase; BU2601 closed at 3,050 yuan/ton with a 0.46% increase and a night - session closing price of 3,062 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase. The trading volume of BU2512 was 10,113 lots, a decrease of 2,857 lots, and the open interest was 20,360 lots, a decrease of 1,092 lots. The trading volume of BU2601 was 252,208 lots, a decrease of 7,506 lots, and the open interest was 193,828 lots, a decrease of 14,840 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 7,690 lots with no change [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 12) was - 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the 12 - 01 inter - period spread was 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the Shandong - South China spread was - 340, a decrease of 10; the East China - South China spread was 0 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the factory - warehouse and warehouse spot equivalent prices on the futures market were 3,126 yuan/ton and 3,266 yuan/ton respectively. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,340 yuan/ton with no change, and the factory - warehouse and warehouse spot equivalent prices on the futures market were 3,357 yuan/ton and 3,417 yuan/ton respectively. As of November 10, the refinery operating rate was 33.50%, a decrease of 0.36% compared to November 6; the refinery inventory rate was 28.45%, an increase of 0.60% [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity is 1, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [8]. 3.3 Market Information - **Production**: In the week from November 4 to November 10, 2025, the weekly domestic asphalt production was 525,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.8% compared to the previous week and a decrease of 1,000 tons or 0.2% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to November was 27.156 million tons, an increase of 3.107 million tons or 12.9% year - on - year [14]. - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses was 688,000 tons, an increase of 0.4% compared to November 6. The inventory in Shandong increased significantly due to weakening terminal demand and the preference of industry players to clear social inventories first. The total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 1.167 million tons, a decrease of 3.5% compared to November 6. The social inventory in Shandong decreased significantly, supported by rush - work demand and the approach of the seasonal off - season [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is in a situation where supply is at a relatively high level, demand is restricted, and prices are oscillating downward. Given the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, potential increased volatility in crude oil prices, and the strong basis in Shandong region, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines regarding asphalt futures prices [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends - The asphalt price is oscillating downward [5] 3.2 Supply Side - The asphalt开工率 (operating rate) increased by 1.3 percentage points week - on - week to 35.8%, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and is at a moderately low level in the same period in recent years. Shandong and East China have individual refineries with intermittent production [4][19]. - The estimated domestic asphalt production in October is 2.682 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons month - on - month (a decrease of 0.1%), and an increase of 0.35 million tons year - on - year (an increase of 15.0%) [4]. - Refineries such as Wudi Xinyue have maintenance plans, and asphalt production will decrease but still remain at a high level [4] 3.3 Demand Side - As of the week ending October 17th, after the National Day holiday, the national asphalt shipment volume increased by 14.48% week - on - week to 253,300 tons, at a moderately low level [4][23]. - From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 2.7%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1% [28]. - As of the week ending October 17th, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable. The road asphalt operating rate remained unchanged week - on - week at 29.0%, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas [4][28] 3.4 Inventory - As of the week ending October 17th, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points week - on - week to 16.6%, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [33] 3.5 Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong region dropped to 3,380 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 245 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 1.44 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 4.37% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased by 5.25% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, but next week may increase supply pressure [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.05 percentage points month - on - month, the construction asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, the modified asphalt开工率 increased by 0.15 percentage points month - on - month, the road - modified asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased by 3.26 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit increased by 5.60% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries decreased by 6.05% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory remains flat; crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3531 - 3571 [10]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: Refineries' recent production cuts reduce supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand**: Overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish, with most downstream开工率s lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: Crude oil strengthening provides short - term cost support, while asphalt processing losses increase [9]. - **Expectation**: Futures price to fluctuate narrowly, with asphalt 2511 in the 3531 - 3571 range [10]. - **Likely positive factors**: Relatively high crude oil cost provides some support [13]. - **Likely negative factors**: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand due to strengthened recession expectations in Europe and the United States [14]. - **Main logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand recovery [15]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Basis**: On September 2nd, the Shandong spot price was 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 1.70% month - on - month to 1270000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 5.86% month - on - month to 674000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 26.67% month - on - month to 190000 tons [11]. - **Futures price trend**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [11]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis trend**: Renders the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis [20][21]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main - contract spread**: Displays the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads [23][24]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: Shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil [26][27]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: Presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: Illustrates the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [33][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Regional market price trends**: Depicts the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: Shows the historical trends of asphalt profit [38][39]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: Displays the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread [41][43]. - **Supply side**: - **Shipment volume**: Presents the historical trends of weekly shipment volume [44][45]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: Shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [46][47]. - **Production volume**: Displays the historical trends of weekly and monthly production volume [49][50]. - **Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: Shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production [53][55]. - **Local refinery asphalt production volume**: Presents the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: Shows the historical trends of weekly capacity utilization rate [59][60]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: Displays the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss volume [61][62]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: Shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts [64][65][66]. - **Social and factory inventory**: Presents the historical trends of social and factory inventory [68][69]. - **Factory inventory - inventory ratio**: Displays the historical trends of the factory inventory - inventory ratio [71][72]. - **Import and export situation**: - **Export and import trends**: Shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import [74][75]. - **Korean asphalt import price difference trend**: Displays the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import price difference [77][78][79]. - **Demand side**: - **Petroleum coke production volume**: Presents the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption volume**: Shows the historical trends of apparent consumption volume [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: Displays the historical trends of highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [86][87][88]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: Presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率**: Shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 [95][96]. - **Asphalt开工率 by use**: Displays the historical trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt开工率 [98]. - **Downstream开工率**: Presents the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane开工率 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet [104][105].