Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The U.S. ProFarmer company's crop inspection shows that the expectation of a bountiful soybean harvest remains unchanged, and the yield per unit is likely to reach a record high. However, due to a significant reduction in the planted area, the overall soybean production is still uncertain [3] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) predicts that Malaysian palm oil prices will remain above 4,300 ringgit, supported by biodiesel demand, tightening soybean oil supply, and a slowdown in palm oil supply growth. The price strength depends on palm oil's competitiveness against soybean oil in the export market [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,640 yuan/ton, a change of +56 yuan or +0.58% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,526 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.12% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,850 yuan/ton, a change of +24 yuan or +0.24% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,660 yuan/ton, a change of +150 yuan or +1.58%, with a spot basis of P01 + 20 yuan, a change of +94 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,680 yuan/ton, a change of +50 yuan/ton or +0.58%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 154 yuan, a change of +40 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,980 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 130 yuan, a change of - 4 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Crop Yield Forecasts - ProFarmer expects the 2025 corn yield per acre in Ohio to be 185.69 bushels/acre, compared to 183.29 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the 2025 corn yield per acre in South Dakota to be 174.18 bushels/acre, compared to 156.51 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the average number of soybean pods in Ohio in 2025 to be 1,287.28, compared to 1,229.93 in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the average number of soybean pods in South Dakota in 2025 to be 1,188.45, compared to 1,025.89 in 2024 [2] Brazilian "Soybean Moratorium Plan" - Brazil's competition management agency CADE recommends a full investigation of the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan". The general manager of CADE decides to implement "preventive measures" and impose fines on the working group coordinating the plan and the soybean export companies that signed the document [2] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) is concerned about CADE's decision, will take administrative measures to appeal, and will maintain a "cooperative spirit" with the competition regulator [2]

近期市场咨询汇总：南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年8月1-5日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比 上月同期减少19.32%，出油率环比上月同期增加0.39%，产量环比上月同期减少17.27%。据马来西亚棕榈油协会 （MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚7月1-31日棕榈油产量预估增加9.01%，其中马来半岛增加17.18%，沙巴减少3.13%， 沙捞越减少0.69%，婆罗洲减少2.58%，预估7月马来西亚棕榈油总产量为184万吨。美国农业部周度作物报告显示， 截至8月3日当周，美国大豆优良率为69%，符合市场预期的69%，前一周为70%，上年同期为68%。大豆开花率为 85%，上一周为76%，上年同期为85%， 五年均值为86%。阿根廷豆油(9月船期)C&F价格1153美元/吨，与上个交 易日相比上调4美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(11月船期)C&F价格1141美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调14美元/吨。进口菜 籽油C&F报价：加拿大菜油(9月船期)1035美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；加拿大菜油(11月船期)1015美元/吨， 与上个交易日相比持平。加拿大菜籽(10月船期)C&F价格568美元/吨，与上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as the peak production season approaches, the supply of palm oil will increase [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,448, with a basis of 96, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions with production cuts falling short of expectations and subsequent supply increase [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,962, with a basis of 644, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions with production cuts falling short of expectations and subsequent supply increase [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,708, with a basis of 93, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,350 - 9,750 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Current Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 21, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei -从业资格号: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact Information: TEL: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increasing season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8414, with a basis of 254, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7950 - 8350 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report data is the same, and the subsequent supply is expected to increase [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9048, with a basis of 84, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8850 - 9250 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report data is the same as above, and the subsequent supply is expected to increase [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9691, with a basis of 105, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9250 - 9650 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Mentioned but no specific data provided [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: Data on July 4 shows a commercial inventory of 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [21][22] - **Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [23][24] Demand - Related - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [13][14] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [15][16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. Indonesia's plan to prepare the B50 program boosted market confidence, but the bumper harvest in South America exerted pressure on the market, resulting in an overall continuation of the oscillation [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,796.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +74 yuan and a幅度 of +0.85% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,072.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +30.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.37% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9,440.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -30.00 yuan and a幅度 of -0.32% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,830.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +40.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.46%, and the spot basis was P09 + 34.00, with a环比 change of -34.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,210.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +10.00 yuan/ton and a幅度 of +0.12%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 138.00, with a环比 change of -20.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,560.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -30.00 yuan and a幅度 of -0.31%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 120.00, with a环比 change of +0.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Brazil - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) raised its production estimates for Brazilian soybean meal and soybean oil in 2025 - The estimated export revenue of the Brazilian soybean complex (grains, soybean meal, and soybean oil) in 2025 is 53.66 billion US dollars, compared to the May forecast of 53.38 billion US dollars - The estimated soybean production in Brazil in 2025 reached a record 169.7 million tons, unchanged from the June forecast - The estimated soybean processing volume in Brazil in 2025 was raised to 57.8 million tons, compared to the June forecast of 57.5 million tons - The estimated soybean export volume in Brazil in 2025 was raised to 109 million tons, compared to the June forecast of 108.2 million tons [2] United States - The net sales of US soybean exports in the 2024/2025 season were 272,000 tons, compared to 503,000 tons the previous week; the net sales of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 530,000 tons, compared to 248,000 tons the previous week - The export shipments of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season were 276,000 tons, compared to 396,000 tons the previous week - The net sales of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week; the net sales of soybeans to China in the 2025/2026 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week - The cumulative sales of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 22.478 million tons, the same as the previous week; the export shipments of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week - The cumulative shipments of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 22.478 million tons, the same as the previous week; the unshipped US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week; the unshipped US soybeans to China in the 2025/2026 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week [2] Indonesia - An Indonesian energy department official said that Indonesia is studying how to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, and the relevant research is expected to be completed by the end of the year. Whether to implement B50 in 2026 has not been determined, and the government needs to calculate the demand for palm oil and the financial support plan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The global soybean supply is abundant, and the prices of the three major oils are fluctuating. Brazil's soybean harvest is confirmed, the weather in US soybean - growing areas is favorable with a high good - rate, and the future weather risk is low, leading to a strong overall harvest expectation. The supply side will gradually face pressure [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8708.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.46% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8012.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.00 yuan or 0.23%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9404.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or 0.21% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8740.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.34%, with a spot basis of P09 + 32.00, an increase of 10.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8160.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.25%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 148.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9520.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.31%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 116.00, a decrease of 10.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: As of July 13, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 340,597 tons, compared to 495,953 tons in the same period last year; the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 63,393 tons, compared to 116,181 tons in the same period last year. From July 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 621,770 tons (ITS data), a 6.16% decrease from the same period last month, and 574,121 tons (Amspec data), a 5.29% decrease from the same period last month. As of July 15, the national soybean oil port inventory was 932,000 tons, a 24,000 - ton increase from the previous week; as of July 14, the national imported soybean port inventory was 646,277 tons, a 9,908 - ton increase from July 7 [2] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a neutral stance [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. With the increase in soybean arrivals and the expectation of continued arrivals in the future, coupled with the strong expectation of a bumper North American soybean harvest, if the China-US negotiation goes smoothly and more US soybeans are purchased, there will be greater pressure later [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,466.00 yuan/ton, a change of -6 yuan or -0.07% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,894.00 yuan/ton, a change of -50.00 yuan or -0.63%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,548.00 yuan/ton, a change of -59.00 yuan or -0.61% [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,510.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan or +0.24%, and the spot basis was P09 + 44.00, a change of +26.00 yuan; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,030.00 yuan/ton, a change of -70.00 yuan/ton or -0.86%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 136.00, a change of -20.00 yuan; the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,680.00 yuan/ton, a change of -60.00 yuan or -0.62%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 132.00, a change of -1.00 yuan [1] - **Inventory Data**: As of July 4, 2025 (Week 27), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 538,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons or 0.13% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 65,000 tons or 13.73% compared to 473,100 tons last year. As of July 7, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans across the country was 636,369 tons, an increase of 26,440 tons compared to 609,929 tons on June 30 [2] - **Market News**: The agriculture minister of Telangana in India called on the central government to modify its palm oil import policy, requesting to raise the palm oil import tariff to 44% and set a minimum guaranteed price of 25,000 rupees per ton for palm oil. Bunge will transport 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal to China from a terminal in the Rosario port area, which will be Argentina's first export of soybean meal to China [2]

油脂日报 | 2025-07-04 供需回归基本面，油脂价格震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8478.00元/吨，环比变化+38元，幅度+0.45%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7994.00 元/吨，环比变化-24.00元，幅度-0.30%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9619.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8520.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.95%，现货基差P09+42.00，环比变化 +42.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8160.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%，现货基差Y09+166.00， 环比变化+24.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9750.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.41%，现货基差 OI09+131.00，环比变化+40.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至7月1日当周，约8%的美国大豆种植区域受到干旱影响，而此 前一周为12%，去年同期为9%。美国农业部（U ...

油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8446.00元/吨，环比变化+10元，幅度+0.12%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7972.00 元/吨，环比变化+12.00元，幅度+0.15%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9583.00元/吨，环比变化+78.00元，幅度+0.82%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8730.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.34%，现货基差P09+284.00，环比变 化+20.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8190.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y09+218.00， 环比变化-22.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9780.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.72%，现货基差 OI09+197.00，环比变化-8.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，据阿肯色大学合作推广服务中心的一位官员称，由于今年春季频繁降雨，该州 可能会有几英亩的大豆无法种植。农业经济项目协会推广服务负责人Scott Stiles称，降雨干扰了大豆的传统种植季 节。一些能够种植的大豆可能需要重新种植，但能否真正实现这一操作还是存有 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-06-06 油脂结构调整，维持震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8126.00元/吨，环比变化-4元，幅度-0.05%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7676.00元 /吨，环比变化-12.00元，幅度-0.16%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9152.00元/吨，环比变化+51.00元，幅度+0.56%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8480.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元，幅度-0.47%，现货基差P09+354.00，环比变化-36.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7880.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.25%，现货基差Y09+204.00，环比变 化-8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9350.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.75%，现货基差OI09+198.00， 环比变化+19.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至6月3日当周，约16%的美国大豆种植区域受到干旱影响，而此 前一周为17%。巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）基于船运计划数据预测，6月1日至7日期间，巴西大豆出口量为 490.1 ...