钢材产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月1日 周敏波 Z0010559 | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3250 | 3240 | 10 | 140 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3200 | 10 | 100 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3320 | 3310 | 10 | 210 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3117 | 3105 | 12 | 133 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3154 | 3144 | 10 | તેર | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3110 | 3093 | 17 | 140 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3290 | 3290 | O | -12 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | -82 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3320 | 3310 | 10 | 30 | ...

每经AI快讯，12月1日，焦煤主力合约日内涨幅达2%，现报1085.50元/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on coking coal, suggesting to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [9] Core Viewpoints - As of the afternoon close on November 6, coking coal showed a strong upward trend. The main coking coal contract JM2601 rose 2.38% (+30.0) to 1290.5, with a 15.64% (+174.5) increase from the previous stage low. The far - month contract J2605 also rose 1.66% (+22.0) to 1345.0. All coking coal contracts had varying degrees of increase [1] - The rise in coking coal futures is due to tight Mongolian coal resources, a decline in domestic coal mine开工, the third round of coke price increase, and winter storage demand [1][3][8] - Looking ahead, the coking coal market is expected to continue rising, and the supply - demand gap may widen further [8][9] Summary by Related Factors Mongolian Coal Resources - Mongolian coal supply has been tight. Since October, the daily average customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 21.3% compared to September. In November, although the customs clearance increased, the supply of main coking coal remained short [1] - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has been rising. As of November 5, it was 1170 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton from the post - National Day low and 465 yuan/ton from the year - low in mid - June. The coking coal futures were still at a discount, with potential for a catch - up increase [2] Domestic Coal Mine Production - Due to safety and environmental reasons, domestic coal mine开工 decreased this week. As of November 5, the capacity utilization rate of 523 sample mines was 83.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. The daily production of raw coal was 186.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.0 tons [3] - By the end of this year, coal mine开工 may continue to operate at a low level. The recovery of coking coal production is limited, and there may be production cuts in December. The domestic coking coal supply remains tight [4] Coke Price Increase - On November 5, the third round of coke price increase was officially implemented. The price increase has repaired the profits of coking enterprises to some extent and provided an upward space for coking coal prices. Coke may have further price increase potential [8] Winter Storage Demand - In November, downstream coking enterprises and steel mills usually start winter storage. Although the iron - making water production has decreased, it is still at a relatively high level and may rebound. The demand - side support is strong, and winter storage demand will exacerbate the tight supply - demand situation of coking coal [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views Steel - Recently, the decline in iron ore prices has led to a rapid drop in steel prices. The supply of iron elements is relatively loose, and the decrease in molten iron production by steel mills has alleviated inventory pressure. The apparent demand for five major steel products is higher than production, and inventory continues to decline. However, the inventory of flat - rolled products is relatively high year - on - year, and the pressure for winter stockpiling is greater than last year. It is expected that steel mills will actively reduce production in winter. The 1 - month contract for rebar and hot - rolled coil is expected to test the support levels of 3000 and 3200 respectively. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coil can continue to be held [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures showed a weak downward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the profit margin of steel mills has dropped significantly, molten iron production has declined from its peak, and the restocking demand of steel mills is weak. The inventory pressure has increased. The previous macro - positive factors have been digested, and the decline in iron ore prices, molten iron production, and the increase in port inventory still suppress iron ore. The strategy is to short iron ore 2601 on rallies, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [4][6]. Coke - The coke futures showed a volatile downward trend. The spot market has a third - round price increase, and there is still an expectation of further increases. On the supply side, the rebound in coking coal prices provides cost support, and the loss of coke production has narrowed after the price increase. On the demand side, environmental restrictions and the decline in molten iron production have suppressed the price increase. The overall inventory is slightly increasing, and the supply is tight. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with a divergence between futures and spot. The domestic coking coal market continues to be strong, but traders are becoming cautious. On the supply side, some coal mines are resuming production, and the supply is expected to increase, but the recovery is limited. On the demand side, the restocking demand is weakening. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing, and downstream is actively restocking. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips in the short - term, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3220 to 3210 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil decreased from 3304 to 3272 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2930 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 3305 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton [2]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 3.5 to 239.9 tons, a 1.5% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 10.0 tons to 875.3 tons, a 1.2% increase [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 41.1 tons to 1513.7 tons, a 2.6% decrease. The rebar inventory decreased by 19.6 tons to 602.5 tons, a 3.1% decrease [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 to 9.3 (the value in the report is incomplete), a 5.4% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 23.7 tons to 916.4 tons, a 2.7% increase [2]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder decreased from 835.9 to 829.3 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 - contract for various powders increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 1189.3 tons to 3218.4 tons, a 58.6% increase. The global shipment volume decreased by 174.6 tons to 3213.8 tons, a 5.2% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 tons to 236.4 tons, a 1.5% decrease. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 374.7 tons to 6604.6 tons, a 5.4% decrease [4]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 171.6 tons to 14714.08 tons, a 1.2% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 tons to 8849.9 tons, a 2.5% decrease [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1612 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coke decreased by 43 to 1729 yuan/ton, a 2.4% decrease [7]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.2 tons, a 0.2% increase [7]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 tons to 236.4 tons, a 1.5% decrease [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 tons to 900.0 tons, a 0.9% increase. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.2 tons to 59.9 tons, a 2.1% increase [7]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1420 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 32 to 1253 yuan/ton, a 2.5% decrease [7]. Supply - The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 3.8 tons to 851.8 tons, a 0.4% increase. The clean coal production increased by 1.5 tons to 434.9 tons, a 0.3% increase [7]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.2 tons, a 0.2% increase [7]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 9.2 tons to 81.1 tons, a 10.2% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 tons to 1052.5 tons, a 2.2% increase [7].

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a tight overall pattern, with fluctuations in futures prices and varying supply and demand dynamics impacting the industry [5] Supply - As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines is 84.34%, up by 0.38% week-on-week, with raw coal production at 8.5181 million tons per week, an increase of 38,100 tons week-on-week [2] - The inventory of raw coal stands at 1.3198 million tons, down by 17.04% week-on-week, while the production of premium coal is 4.3492 million tons per week, up by 14,700 tons week-on-week [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 sampled coal mines is 84.8%, down by 0.3% week-on-week, with daily raw coal production at 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 600 tons [2] Demand - As of October 30, the average daily production of coke at independent coking plants is 646,000 tons, unchanged week-on-week, while the average daily production at 247 steel mills is 462,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons week-on-week [3] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.3636 million tons, down by 35,400 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 81.75%, down by 2.96% [3] - The profitability rate of steel mills is 45.02%, down by 2.60% week-on-week [3] Inventory - As of October 30, the total inventory of coking coal (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, ports, and terminals) is 36.71 million tons, down by 6.2% week-on-week [4] - The inventory at 523 coal mines is 3.833 million tons, down by 31,300 tons, while the inventory at 314 washing plants is 4.605 million tons, down by 4,400 tons [4] - The inventory at coking plants increased by 22,800 tons to 10.525 million tons, while steel mills' inventory rose by 13,400 tons to 7.963 million tons [4] Market Dynamics - The futures market for coking coal has shown a downward trend, while the spot prices in Shanxi remain strong, and the prices for Mongolian coal are fluctuating at high levels [5] - There is a cautious sentiment among traders due to the rapid increase in coking coal prices, despite ongoing demand for replenishment from downstream sectors [5] - The supply side is expected to improve slightly with the resumption of some coal mines in Shanxi, but overall production recovery is limited [5]

Core Insights - The main point of the article is that coking coal futures have increased by 3.4%, reaching a price of 1311 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - Coking coal futures are showing a significant upward trend with a 3.4% increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for coking coal experienced a short-term surge in the afternoon, rising over 2% [1] Group 1 - The coking coal futures market showed significant activity with the main contract increasing by more than 2% in the afternoon session [1]

Core Insights - Coking coal futures have increased by over 3%, reaching a price of 1235 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The main contract for coking coal futures has shown a significant price increase, indicating strong market demand or supply constraints [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for coking coal has surged over 4%, currently priced at 1246.5 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The significant increase in coking coal futures indicates strong market demand and potential price volatility [1]

Market Overview - As of October 21, coal futures experienced a downward trend, with the main contract 2601 closing at 1177.0, down 39.0 (-3.21%), and the far-month contract 2605 at 1250.0, down 37.5 (-2.91%) [1] - The price difference between contracts 1-5 weakened to -73.0, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Supply Analysis - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines was 84.64%, up 1.80% week-on-week, with raw coal production at 854.88 million tons per week, an increase of 18.21 million tons [2] - The inventory of raw coal decreased by 3.49 million tons to 161.56 million tons, while the production of premium coal rose by 11.84 million tons to 438.15 million tons [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 sampled coal mines was reported at 87.3%, with a week-on-week increase of 5.4% [2] Demand Insights - As of October 16, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants was 65.3 million tons, down 0.8 million tons week-on-week, while steel mills produced an average of 45.9 million tons of coke daily, a decrease of 0.4 million tons [3] - The average daily pig iron production was 240.95 million tons, down 0.59 million tons, with a blast furnace operating rate of 84.27%, remaining stable [3] Inventory Status - Total coal inventory (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, and ports) decreased by 15.8 million tons to 3616.6 million tons as of October 16 [4] - Inventory at 523 mines increased by 17.7 million tons to 440.3 million tons, while washing plants saw an increase of 15.8 million tons to 474.7 million tons [4] Market Sentiment and Strategy - The coal market showed signs of recovery after a slight decline post-holiday, with downstream purchasing increasing and some traders engaging in bottom-fishing [5] - Supply from major coal-producing regions improved post-holiday, although there were reports of mining accidents in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi [5] - The strategy suggests short-term buying on dips for coal futures 2601, with a reference range of 1150-1300, and arbitrage between coal and coke futures [5]