证券研究报告 焦煤供应下降，看好焦煤弹性 ——煤炭行业周报（1月第1周） 行业评级：看好 2026年1月11日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截至2026年1月9日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨6.26%，沪深300指数上涨2.79%，跑赢沪深300指数3.47个百分点。全板块整周36只股价上涨，0 只下跌，1只持平。江钨装备涨幅最高，整周涨幅为19.21%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2026年1月2日-2026年1月8日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为705万吨，周环比增加17.1%，年同比减少0.4%。其中，动力煤周日均 销量较上周增加20.9%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少5.1%，无烟煤销量较上周增加18.5%。截至2026年1月8日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为705万吨，周环比增加20.8%，年同比减少 3.4%；重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2348万吨，周环比持平，年同比减少11%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量5518万吨，同比 ...

焦煤焦炭年度报告（2026） --政策托底下的供需再平衡 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-12-31 04 后市研判 行情回顾 PART 01 2025年双焦盘面呈现"先跌后涨再横盘宽幅震荡"格局 1、上半年，供需失衡下，呈现单边下行。国 内焦煤产量保持较快增速，供给持续宽松。下 游钢材需求恢复缓慢，钢厂和焦化厂普遍采取 主动降低原料库存的策略。这导致上游煤矿持 续累库，加剧价格下跌。 2、自7月起，市场在政策驱动下的强势反弹。宏 观"反内卷"及煤矿超产核查等政策密集出台， 市场预期供应将系统性收缩，情绪迅速转向乐观。 在价格上涨过程中，焦化厂和钢厂的焦炭库存均 处于年内低位。低库存环境下，"买涨不买跌" 的心态放大了补库需求。宏微观共振下，价格快 速拉升。 3、进入"金九银十"需求成色一般。之后又进入行业传统淡季，下游 钢厂利润不佳，补库意愿一般，同时铁水产量有所下滑，对双焦的需求 形成压制。供应端以蒙煤为主的进口焦煤保持高通关量，有效补充了国 内供应，上游库存压力再度显现。但年末中央经济工作会议以及《煤炭 清洁高效利用重点领域标杆水平和基准水平（2 ...

风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 大同证券研究中心 年末供应收缩叠加需求回暖，价格底部区间逐步确认 【2025.12.22-2025.12.28】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 发布日期：2025.12.30 煤炭行情走势图 动力煤供给收缩需求边际改善，煤价寻底待企稳。动力煤本周 价格延续下行但跌幅收窄，悲观情绪逐步释放；元旦后中东部 低温将推升供暖需求，叠加供给收缩、政策托底预期，煤价有 望止跌企稳。 炼焦煤供需弱平衡，价格稳中有支撑。炼焦煤本周价格保持平 稳，优质煤种涨幅突出；虽短期需求驱动弱，但库存中低位与 供给收缩形成支撑，元旦后冬储补库启动，预计价格窄幅震荡、 稳中有撑。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 权益市场涨跌互现，煤炭跑输指数。A 股市场放量普涨，日均 成交额 1.95 万亿元，情绪回暖。半导体、化工等板块领涨， 受益于商业航天政策与存储器涨价预期；保险板块涨 2.98%， 险资新规有望带来超 5000 亿元增量资金。ETF ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 【2025.12.1-2025.12.7】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2025.12.9 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 煤炭供需弱平衡，政策或利于红利布局 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 动力煤供给基本稳定，期待需求释放。本周，煤炭主产区供应 量基本稳定，由于终端需求不及预期，煤价继续回调，市场观 望情绪浓烈，随着供暖需求释放，煤价有望企稳回升。 焦煤需求压缩，预计煤价震荡运行。本周，焦炭首轮提降落地， 需求进一步压缩，导致煤价继续承压运行，随着下游冬储补库 需求释放、国内煤矿供应低位，预计煤价震荡运行。 权益市场涨跌互现，煤炭跑赢指数。美股科技继续反弹，外部 流动性宽松预期支撑风险资产；我国金融监管总局调整险资投 资股票的风险因子，预计将为 A 股带来超千亿元增量资金；证 监会放宽券商杠杆限制、起草 ...

智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，回顾2025年，煤炭供给前高后低，进口煤同比下降，需求仍 有韧性。查超产支撑下，煤价V型反转。展望2026年，国内经济维持平稳，需求增长可期，供给在限产 和保供之间平衡，煤炭价格中枢抬升。供需决定库存，库存决定价格，该行认为2026年库存介于2024- 2025年之间，动力煤均价800-850元/吨;考虑到焦煤下游钢铁用煤偏弱、供给端潜在增量，预计焦煤和动 力煤比价关系在2倍左右，对应焦煤均价1500-1700元/吨。若去库超预期，煤炭价格有望进一步抬升。 维持行业"看好"评级。 政策：限产兼顾保供，供需动态平衡 浙商证券主要观点如下： 消费先抑后扬。2025年1-10月，全国商品煤消费总量约42.4亿吨，同比增长0.1%，主因化工用煤增速 高、钢铁用煤韧性强。行业用煤分化。分行业看，化工用煤3.6亿吨(yoy10.9%)，钢铁用煤5.9亿吨 (yoy0.2%)，建材用煤4亿吨(yoy-4.9%)，电力用煤23.5亿吨(yoy-1.1%)。 价格：煤价V型反转，长协整体平稳 煤价V型反转。动力煤、炼焦煤、无烟煤年初价格分别为767、1520、980元/吨，年内最低分别跌 ...

华泰期货研究 2026 年期货市场展望 回顾过去十年的煤炭行情，不难发现煤炭价格波动总是围绕持续增长的消费和阶段性供给错配之间的矛盾而展开的，其中政策变化 起到了关键作用。2025 年上半年煤炭价格大幅下跌，直至反内卷政策和超产核查出台，煤炭产量受到控制，同时伴随价格回落， 进口量大幅缩减，煤炭供需矛盾有所缓解，煤炭价格才得以重新反弹...... 调节供需动态平衡，维持煤价合理区间 王海涛 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨询号:Z0016256 本期分析研究员 邝志鹏 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨询号:Z0016256 钢铁煤炭与建材研究 Research on Ferrous and Construction Commodities 余彩云 从业资格号:F03096767 投资咨询号:Z0020310 从业资格号:F3054449 投资咨询号:Z0016137 华泰期货研究院钢铁煤炭与建材研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 刘国梁 从业资格号:F03108558 投资咨询号:Z0021505 邢亚文 期货研究报告 | 动力煤年报 2025-11-30 调节供需动态平衡，维持煤价合理区间 策略 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to reduced production and imports, with October coal production down 2.3% year-on-year, and imports down 9.76% [6][25] - Demand has significantly improved in October, primarily driven by increased coal consumption in thermal power and chemical industries, while the construction and metallurgy sectors have shown a decline [6][26] - The report highlights a notable increase in coal prices, with port prices rising by 56 yuan/ton in October, reflecting the improved supply-demand dynamics [10][11] Supply Side Summary - Coal production in October was 407 million tons, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, with daily production averaging 13.12 million tons, down 596,000 tons from the previous month [4][19] - The decline in production is attributed to maintenance, adverse weather, and stricter safety checks [6][19] - Coal imports in October were 41.74 million tons, down 9.76% year-on-year, with a cumulative import of 388 million tons from January to October, reflecting an 11.0% decrease [25][26] Demand Side Summary - Thermal power generation increased by 7.3% year-on-year in October, reversing a decline from September [6][26] - The total industrial electricity generation in October was 800.2 billion kWh, up 7.9% year-on-year, with a daily average of 25.81 billion kWh [5][18] - Chemical industry coal consumption rose significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 35.38% in October [10][26] Inventory Summary - By the end of October, coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 135,000 tons, while inventories at northern ports increased by 432,000 tons [10][11] - The report notes that inland power plants have increased their coal inventories, indicating a trend towards replenishment as winter approaches [10][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on robust coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which exhibit strong cash flow and profitability [10][12] - It emphasizes the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in light of the current market conditions and potential for price increases [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the coal sector, including Shanxi Coal International, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [2][3][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong demand-supply imbalance in the coal market, with prices expected to continue rising due to seasonal demand and regulatory constraints on supply [1][7][8]. - October saw a decrease in national raw coal production, with a daily average of 13.12 million tons, down 4.3% month-on-month [1][37]. - The report anticipates that coal prices may peak at around 1000 RMB/ton by the end of the year, driven by tight supply and increasing demand as winter approaches [1][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report notes that seasonal demand is gradually being realized, with port coal prices continuing to rise and stabilizing in the latter half of the week [1][7]. - Regulatory inspections have led to a significant contraction in coal supply, particularly in regions like Ulanqab and Linfen [2][11]. 2. Market Performance - As of November 14, the coal sector's weekly decline was 0.8%, outperforming the broader market indices [14][17]. - The report identifies that the coking coal sub-sector experienced the highest weekly increase of 6.2% [17]. 3. Company Dynamics - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot market exposure, such as Shanxi Coal International and Lu'an Environmental Energy, as well as stable growth companies like Jinko Coal and Huayang Co [12][21]. - Notable stock performance includes An Tai Group, which saw a significant increase of 57.29% in its stock price [21]. 4. Industry Developments - The report discusses the impact of international coal trade dynamics, including increased imports by India and Taiwan, which may influence domestic supply and pricing [25][35]. - It also highlights the ongoing safety inspections and regulatory measures that are expected to limit coal production capacity in the near term [1][26]. 5. Coal Data Tracking - The average price of Shanxi thermal coal remained stable at 682 RMB/ton, while coking coal prices increased slightly to 1484 RMB/ton [45].

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is experiencing significant price increases, with domestic coal prices rising due to a surge in overseas coal prices, specifically a 3.3% increase in Australian coal prices and a 2.1% increase in Indonesian coal prices [1][3] - Despite the rise in overseas prices, the imported coal's landed price remains 50-100 RMB lower than the northern port prices, potentially exerting downward pressure on domestic coal prices [1][3] Key Points on Coal Prices - Northern nine ports have seen a significant year-on-year decrease in coal inventory, down 18% compared to 2023 and 12% compared to 2024, indicating that the inventory accumulation phase is not meeting expectations, which is a key driver for the current price increase [1][5] - The strong performance of coking coal is attributed to reduced imports from Mongolia, production cuts in Shanxi, and environmental reductions in Wuhai, leading to tight supply and expected price increases due to winter storage and steel production [1][6] - The stock performance of thermal coal companies has been robust, with leading Hong Kong thermal coal companies seeing price increases of 6%-10%, supported by favorable domestic and international factors [1][7][8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The primary reasons for the continued rise in coal prices in 2025 include a significant reduction in imported coal (approximately 10 million tons year-on-year) and negative domestic production growth, compounded by seasonal demand not decreasing as expected and policy-driven supply contractions [1][9] - The current market dynamics suggest that if supply does not recover significantly, the supply-demand gap will widen in the fourth quarter, with prices potentially rising to 900-1,000 RMB if the situation does not improve [1][9][15] Challenges Faced by Traders and Power Plants - Traders are facing challenges due to the significant price gap between pit and port coal, leading to losses when shipping coal to ports, which diminishes their willingness to stockpile [1][10] - Power plants are struggling with procurement issues, as long-term contract prices are significantly lower than current market prices, leading to limited purchasing capabilities and potential rapid inventory depletion if demand increases [1][11] Future Outlook - The coal market is expected to maintain a tight supply situation, with limited immediate relief from increased imports or production from Xinjiang due to regulatory constraints [1][12][14] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a supply-demand gap comparable to 2020, when coal prices surged from 600 RMB to 1,000 RMB, indicating a potential for significant price increases [1][15] - Predictions for 2025 suggest an average price of around 700 RMB, with a confirmed upward trend for 2026, influenced by fourth-quarter performance [1][16] Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment strategies should focus on flexible varieties such as thermal and coking coal, with specific recommendations for companies like Liu'an Huanneng, Yanzhou Coal, Jinko Coal, and Shanxi International [1][17]

Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Coking Coal and Coke [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Bai Jing [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, the current supply recovery is slow due to factors such as underground issues and environmental protection, while downstream demand remains stable. With the successful third round of coke price increases and expectations of a fourth round, coking coal prices are strongly supported in the short - term, with an expected fluctuation range of 1200 - 1320 yuan/ton [7]. - For coke, both supply and demand have weakened recently. Although there is short - term support from coal supply constraints and cost factors, and the third round of price increases has been implemented with expectations of a fourth round, the narrowing profit of downstream steel mills may lead to price negotiations. Therefore, coke prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [46]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Coking Coal Price - As of October 23, the warehouse receipt price of Meng 5 raw coal was 1322 yuan/ton (-15), and that of Shanxi single coal was 1338 yuan/ton (+70). The warehouse receipt price of Canadian Lukin was 1302 yuan/ton (+98). The price of the coking coal main contract fluctuated narrowly, down 1.24% from the previous trading week, and the JM1 - 5 spread was -46.5 yuan/ton (+21.5) [5]. Fundamentals - Supply: In Shanxi, coal mines further reduced production this week, with a significant decline in production in the Lvliang area. Some state - owned large mines in the Liulin area also controlled production independently. The coking coal production of a large open - pit mine in Jiaokou stopped due to the expiration of the mining license. The开工 rate of 523 coking coal mines was 83.76%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points, and the daily average clean coal output was 73.83 tons, a decrease of 2.01 tons [6]. - Demand: The molten iron output continued to decline this period, and the profit of the steel products end was in a larger loss. The short - term trend may remain weak. After the successful implementation of the coke price increase, the raw material market sentiment was optimistic, and most mines had sufficient pre - sales orders [6]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of the 523 - caliber steel union was 189.54 tons, a decrease of 15.87 tons. The price of imported Mongolian coal decreased slightly, with the price of Meng 5 raw coal dropping to about 1150 - 1170 yuan/ton [6]. Part 2: Coke Price - As of November 7, the CCI Rizhao quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was reported at 1570 yuan/ton (-), the Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt was 1715 yuan/ton (+11), and the port dry - quenched coke warehouse receipt was 1815 yuan/ton (+55). The price of the coke main contract fluctuated, down 1.15% from the previous trading week, and the J1 - 5 spread was -129.5 yuan/ton (+10) [44]. Fundamentals - Supply: Recently, affected by factors such as losses, environmental protection, maintenance, and tight coal resources, coke production has continued to shrink. After the third - round price increase was implemented, coke enterprises became more active in shipping. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 72.31%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points, and the daily average output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63.59 tons, a decrease of 1 ton. The daily average output of 247 steel mill coking plants was 46.09 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons [45]. - Demand: The molten iron output continued to decline this period, and the daily coke consumption decreased. The daily average molten iron output was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons [45]. - Inventory: The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 633.16 tons, a decrease of 6.23 tons (1%). The coke inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.57 tons (2.6%). The coke inventory at ports was 202.11 tons, a decrease of 8.99 tons [45].