行业方面，三季度以来，供给端在安全监管和超产核查等因素影响下，国内煤炭产量增速逐步放缓。中 信证券表示，展望四季度，上述约束供给释放的因素依然维持。需求端，短期水电持续发力或影响火电 耗煤增速，10月—11月煤炭供给偏宽松，但后续进入冬季旺季，12月份供给或再度出现缺口，考虑结构 性的错配，预计四季度行业整体供需或基本平衡。 该机构预计，煤炭板块三季度业绩随煤价回暖而环比提升，而四季度在旺季月份加持下，煤价整体或进 一步上涨；若供给收缩政策执行力度强化，煤价还有望超预期。在政策、煤价、业绩预期均有改善的背 景下，板块四季度反弹的概率在增加。一方面建议关注动力煤红利龙头，另一方面也可关注低估值且业 绩弹性好的公司。 煤炭板块10日盘中发力走高，截至发稿，宝泰隆、大有能源涨停，陕西黑猫涨超6%，晋控煤业涨逾 5%。 ...

（来源：晨看能源） 1、事件 2025年9月15日，国家统计局发布2025年8月能源生产情况： 煤炭：原煤生产降幅收窄。8月份，规上工业原煤产量3.9亿吨，同比下降3.2%，降幅比7月份收窄0.6个百分点；日均产量1260万吨，月度环比增加30.7万 吨/天，同比减少19.5 万吨/天。1-8月份，规上工业原煤产量31.7亿吨，同比增长2.8%。 电力：规上工业电力生产平稳增长。8月份，规上工业发电量9363亿千瓦时，同比增长1.6%；日均发电首次突破300亿千瓦时，达302.0亿千瓦时。1-8月 份，规上工业发电量64193亿千瓦时，同比增长1.5%，扣除天数原因，日均发电量同比增长1.9%。分品种看，8月份，规上工业风电增速加快，水电降幅 扩大，火电、核电、太阳能发电增速放缓。其中，规上工业火电同比增长1.7%，增速比7月份放缓2.6个百分点；规上工业水电下降10.1%，降幅比7月份扩 大0.3个百分点；规上工业核电增长5.9%，增速比7月份放缓2.4个百分点；规上工业风电增长20.2%，增速比7月份加快14.7个百分点；规上工业太阳能发电 增长15.9%，增速比7月份放缓12.8个百分点。 2、投资要点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Insights - In August, coal production continued to decline, while thermal power demand showed year-on-year growth, and coal prices increased significantly month-on-month [1][11] - The overall coal supply in August decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to July [25] - The report highlights a positive outlook for coal companies due to high cash flow, profitability, and dividend yields, suggesting a focus on value attributes in the coal sector [11] Supply Analysis - In August, the industrial raw coal production was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to July [17][19] - Daily average production in August was 12.6 million tons, an increase of 307,000 tons per day month-on-month, but a decrease of 195,000 tons per day year-on-year [19] - Coal imports in August were 42.74 million tons, down 6.77% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 16 percentage points compared to July [24] Demand Analysis - Thermal power demand in August increased by 1.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate slowed by 2.6 percentage points compared to July [26] - The total industrial electricity generation in August was 936.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [18] - The report notes that the construction and manufacturing sectors showed slight slowdowns, while the real estate market remained weak [34] Inventory and Price Trends - By the end of August, coal inventories at northern ports decreased by 2.505 million tons to 22.232 million tons, showing a significant reduction year-on-year [10] - The report indicates that the coal price at Qinhuangdao port for 5500 kcal coal increased by 51.37 CNY/ton month-on-month, reflecting a rise of 8.05% [11] Company Focus and Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on robust companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which exhibit strong financial health and growth potential [11] - It suggests that investors consider companies with high dividend yields and cash flow, highlighting the investment value of coal stocks in the current market environment [11]

整体库存已降至 相对合理区间 （来源：CCTD中国煤炭市场网） 政策对供应的影响 尤为关键 煤炭进口量在2025年1-8月出现了明显回落，累计进口3.0亿吨，累计同比下降12.2%。但目前进口煤价 格优势显现，8月进口数据已明显回升。叠加进口煤长协四季度或集中履约，印尼HBA政策放宽，预计 下半年进口煤量较上半年有所增加，同比降幅缩窄，整体供应形势仍主要取决于国内生产情况。 国家能源局已部署煤矿生产情况核查工作，严查超公告产能生产的行为。此举旨在遏制煤炭企业"以量 补价"的内卷式竞争，促进煤炭供应平稳有序。1-8月，国内规上工业原煤产量31.7亿吨，累计同比增长 2.8%。但7月原煤产量3.8亿吨，环比下降近4000万吨，同比降3.8%，8月原煤产量3.9亿吨，恢复极为有 限，当月同比降3.2%。产量下降除政策及阅兵等因素外，也与产地降水偏多有关，持续性仍需观察。 若相关政策后续得到严格执行，迎峰度冬期间国内煤炭生产存在同比明显下降可能，供需形势或阶段性 偏紧。 近一阶段随着供应回落及迎峰度夏期间需求尚可，产地及中转港口库存从高位明显回落，整体库存已降 至相对合理区间。目前北港库存处于近年来阶段性偏低水平，华 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the coal industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market performance [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal market is experiencing short-term price fluctuations due to supply constraints caused by heavy rainfall and production checks in key mining areas. It anticipates that coal prices will stabilize as temperatures drop across most regions [3]. - The report provides specific price data for thermal coal and coking coal, noting that while some thermal coal prices have decreased, others have seen slight increases. The overall trend suggests a mixed but stable pricing environment [3][10][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply and demand dynamics, with increased daily coal inflow and outflow at the ports, leading to a decrease in coal inventory levels [21]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Developments - The report discusses recent developments in coal mining projects and safety initiatives, including approvals for increased production capacities in certain regions [9]. Price Trends - Thermal coal prices have shown mixed results, with some prices remaining stable while others have increased slightly. Coking coal prices are expected to experience minor fluctuations before potentially rising again due to seasonal demand [10][12]. International Oil Prices - The report notes an increase in Brent crude oil prices, which may influence coal pricing dynamics. The relationship between international oil prices and coal prices is highlighted, with a noted increase in the ratio of oil to coal prices [17]. Port Inventory and Shipping Costs - The report indicates a decrease in coal inventory at the ports, with increased daily inflow and outflow rates. Shipping costs for domestic routes have also risen slightly, reflecting broader market trends [21][27]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their market performance and earnings projections. Companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are highlighted for their stable operations and high dividend yields [33].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is experiencing a "anti-involution" policy aimed at regulating production levels, with national coal output expected to remain around 1 billion tons in 2025 to curb overproduction and maintain market order [1][2] - The overall coal supply is projected to decline, with domestic production expected to see slight growth while imports are anticipated to decrease significantly [6][8] Core Insights and Arguments - The National Energy Administration's anti-involution policy mandates inspections and shutdowns of coal mines exceeding 10% overproduction, which has positively influenced market expectations and led to a surge in coal sector stocks [2] - In Q1 and Q2 of 2025, the coal industry faced significant downward pressure, prompting some companies to increase production to offset falling prices, which worsened market competition [2] - Electricity consumption growth slowed in early 2025 but began to recover in April, with expectations that annual growth will align with GDP growth at around 5% [9] - The prices of thermal coal and coking coal have risen since late June, indicating a recovery in the coal sector, driven by strong downstream steel demand and lower-than-expected supply due to environmental regulations [11] Regional Production Insights - In April 2025, national coal production was 390 million tons, a decrease of 50 million tons from March, but production rebounded in May and June due to reduced railway freight costs in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang [4] - Inner Mongolia's production is expected to decline due to the lack of approval for capacity increases, while Xinjiang's production may stabilize around 50 million tons per month for the year [4][5] Future Production and Capacity Planning - The production elasticity in Xinjiang is limited, with costs expected to rise again after the end of railway discounts, impacting short-term production [5][7] - New capacity planning in Xinjiang may be influenced by the new leadership's policy direction, which could differ significantly from previous plans [7] Global Supply Trends - Global coal supply is expected to peak in 2025 and begin to decline in 2026, with Australia and Russia's production likely to decrease, and the U.S. restarting coal power plants may reduce export volumes [8] Investment Opportunities and Recommendations - The coal sector, particularly companies benefiting from the anti-involution policy, presents significant investment opportunities. Recommendations include investing in coal ETFs and specific companies such as Jincheng Anthracite, Shanxi Coal, and Shenhua for thermal coal, and Huaiyin Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [16] Additional Considerations - The coal sector's institutional holdings have dropped to a five-year low, indicating a clean chip structure, which may lead to a favorable market environment for future investments [12][15] - The recent recovery in the cyclical commodities market reflects increased market confidence, driven by policy support for infrastructure projects [13][14]

Group 1: Hot News - China's social financing scale increment in the first half of this year was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - China's total value of goods trade imports and exports in the first half of this year was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. In June, exports, imports, and overall trade all increased [2] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on July 15 to introduce the economic performance in the first half of 2025 [2] - Chinese coal enterprises are urged to implement the medium - and long - term power coal contract system and promote market balance [2] - US President Trump urges Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement, threatens 100% secondary tariffs, and plans to impose new tariffs on multiple countries from August 1 [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, plastic, lithium carbonate, rebar, and soybean meal [4] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials rose 2.79%, precious metals 28.63%, oilseeds 12.36%, etc. [4] Group 3: Sector Holdings - Information on the five - day change in commodity futures sector holdings is presented, but specific data is in graphical form [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% daily, S&P 500 0.14%, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily [6] - Commodity: CRB commodity index was flat daily, WTI crude oil fell 2.38% [6] - Others: US dollar index rose 0.24% daily, CBOE volatility was flat [6]

Group 1 - The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association held a meeting emphasizing the need to maintain safety and stability, improve coal supply quality, and promote market balance amid changing external conditions [1] - The meeting highlighted the severe imbalance in coal supply and demand, urging coal enterprises to adhere to long-term contracts and enhance management practices to ensure contract fulfillment [1] - With the arrival of high temperatures, coastal power plants are experiencing increased daily coal consumption and declining inventory, leading to a forecast of rising coal prices due to imminent replenishment needs [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities reported that the rapid growth of renewable energy installations and generation is increasingly squeezing coal power, raising concerns about potential negative growth for coal power in the future [2] - The firm predicts that starting in 2025, with new policies for renewable energy and considering the current pressure on the grid, the marginal impact on coal power will weaken, with a potential demand turning point for coal expected around 2027 [2] Group 3 - Related Hong Kong-listed companies in the coal industry include China Coal Energy (01898), Yancoal Australia (03668), Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171), China Shenhua Energy (01088), and China Qinfa (00866) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The coal supply growth rate is declining but remains high, while demand is weak, particularly in the power sector. The chemical sector shows better demand. Coal prices have significantly decreased, and stable long-term contract prices are expected. Policy expectations are increasing due to weak supply-demand fundamentals, with a need for production cuts to stabilize coal prices [1][4]. Supply - Domestic coal production continues to grow, but the growth rate has decreased. From January to May 2025, the total raw coal production reached 1.985 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. In May alone, production was 403 million tons, up 4.2% year-on-year [2]. - Coal imports have slightly decreased, with a total of 189 million tons imported from January to May, down 7.9% year-on-year. In May, imports were 36.04 million tons, a decrease of 17.8% year-on-year [2]. - The transportation of coal from Xinjiang has declined, with a total of 22.01 million tons transported by rail from January to March 2025. In April, policies were introduced to reduce transportation costs, alleviating pressure on coal transportation [2]. Demand - Coal consumption has shown signs of weakness but remains resilient overall. From January to April 2025, total coal consumption was approximately 1.66 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. The chemical industry experienced the fastest growth, consuming 140 million tons, up 10.8% year-on-year [3]. - The steel industry consumed 230 million tons, a 2.8% increase year-on-year, while the building materials sector saw a decline of 1.9% with 140 million tons consumed. The power sector experienced a significant drop, consuming 940 million tons, down 2.7% year-on-year [3]. Price - The average prices of various coal types have decreased. From January to May, the average prices for thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite were 740.0, 1406.5, and 898.4 yuan per ton, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 20.5%, 38.7%, and 7.1% [4]. - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal decreased from 693 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 669 yuan per ton in June. It is expected that long-term contract prices will stabilize as spot prices gradually stabilize [4]. Policy - The company anticipates that policy measures will be implemented based on historical experiences, with expectations for effective outcomes. The company has gained experience from previous supply-side structural reforms and energy production increases to address coal overcapacity and supply tightness [4]. - To stabilize coal prices, it is predicted that production must be reduced by at least 57 million tons from June to December, even under optimistic demand scenarios. In neutral and pessimistic demand scenarios, reductions of 81 million tons and 106 million tons are required, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound in coking coal futures is attributed to rumors of increased resource taxes in Mongolia, heightened expectations of supply contraction, and technical corrections following previous declines. However, the overall supply-demand situation for coking coal has not materially improved, indicating that the current rebound may be temporary and driven by market sentiment [2][7] - Short-term fluctuations in coking coal futures may still have room for oscillation and rebound, but medium-term demand remains under pressure due to seasonal factors. Long-term focus should be on demand policies and the rebalancing of coking coal supply and demand [2][7] Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.35%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points. The thermal coal market price as of June 6 was 609 RMB/ton, down by 2 RMB/ton week-on-week. The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port remained stable at 1270 RMB/ton [6][20] - Coking coal futures saw a week-on-week increase of 7.2% to 779 RMB/ton, driven by supply contraction expectations and technical corrections [2][7] Coking Coal Supply and Demand - As of June 5, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 485.4 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.5%. The total coal inventory was 118.26 million tons, up by 1.0% week-on-week [21][38] - The supply side showed a slight decrease in production capacity utilization in the "Three West" regions, indicating potential supply constraints [21][22] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks for marginal allocation include: 1. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry 2. Transition growth: Electric Power Investment Energy, New Hope Energy 3. Elastic growth targets: Yanzhou Coal Mining (A+H), Huayang Co., Jin控煤业 4. Coking coal: Shanxi Coking Coal, Huaibei Mining, Pingmei Shenma Group [8]