| X | | --- | | | | 能化板块研发报告 供应变量带来机遇 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2025 年高硫燃料油呈现上半年强下半年弱的分化走势。上半年持续强 势，其利多支撑由供应转向需求。一季度，俄罗斯、伊朗和墨西哥等主要高 硫供应地区都存在自身的供应缺口。二季度亚洲价格高位吸引套利物流增 加，供应回升但夏季旺季发电需求开始强势启动。下半年亚洲高硫燃料油市 场价格开始持续受到高库存的压制。 2025 年低硫燃料油市场主要受到几个供应地区能源设施变化的影响， 无大矛盾驱动，整体市场价格偏弱势震荡，波动率较往年下行。主要问题集 中在 Dangote 炼厂 RFCC 不断调试，马来西亚 Rapid 炼厂 RFCC 检修回归 延迟，南苏丹低硫重质原油出口受苏丹内战扰动，Al-Zour 炼厂偶尔部分装 置技术性停产。 【市场展望】 2026 年高硫燃料油，主要关注俄乌冲突和欧美制裁结束后的高硫燃料 油全球供应物流重塑，高硫对外供应总量整体上行，但往亚洲供应量随着欧 美制裁的放松而被逐步分流。重点关注二季度，亚洲高硫被分流后出现短暂 缺口叠加中东旺季发电开始备货，或短期内强势支撑亚洲高硫价格上行。 2 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-12-24 低硫燃料油方面，由于装置检修状态的变动（阿祖尔和Dangote），科威特与尼日利亚地区供应存在回升预期。其 中，阿祖尔炼厂其中一套CDU装置已经在本月上旬重启，而其配套的2号脱硫装置也在12月18日恢复运行。阿祖尔 炼厂另一套CDU装置预计在12月25日重启。参考船期数据，自从11月停止出口以来，科威特预计在12月27日发出 第一批低硫燃料油船货，12月出口量目前预计在4.7万吨，未来随着装置完全恢复还有较大回升空间。考虑到船燃 终端需求年底受到提振，叠加汽柴油对组分的分流，低硫燃料油短期市场压力或有限，但整体上供应来源较为充 裕，估值将持续受到压制。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨2.14%，报2483元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.42%，报2999 元/吨。 经历了连续下跌后，原油价格近日从低位连续反弹，委内瑞拉局势升级对情绪溢价有一定抬升，但油市供过于求 的预期并未逆转，未来原油端对FU、LU单边价格压制将持续存在。 就燃料油自身基本 ...

燃料油周报 （12.15-12.19） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 周度观点 2 期现价格 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 周度观点 燃料油周评：上周，原油整体呈现先抑后扬走势，燃料油价格也先跌后涨，高硫报收2415元/吨，周涨 0.42%，低硫报收2932元/吨，周跌2.01%。 由于前期套利经济性不佳，预计12月份来自西方市场的低硫燃料油到货量将出现三个月来的首次下降， 对低硫燃料油市场稍有支撑。但近期的一些租船活动可能导致套利货流入量在1月份再次反弹，亚洲低硫燃料 油市场预计在整个1月乃至可能延续到2月都将保持供应充足。尽管即期供应充足继续拖累亚洲高硫燃料油市 场，但良好的下游船用燃料需求为市场基本面提供一些支撑。 尽管因为运 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-12燃料油早报 燃料油： 1、基本面：一位新加坡的贸易商表示，继11月库存大幅累积之后，亚洲低硫燃料油市场在整个12月以及1月仍将 保持供应非常充足的局面，并补充说目前下游船用燃料油需求看起来缺乏支撑力；一位贸易商表示，目前新加坡 高硫燃料油市场处于供应过剩的局面，且这种情况将持续一段时间；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油330.69美元/吨，基差为-7元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为415.78美元/吨，基差为11元/ 吨，现货平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油12月10日当周库存为2241.9万桶，增加118万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空增，偏空；低硫主力持仓多单，多增，偏多 6、预期：隔夜原油震荡运行，前半夜OPEC与IEA月报相继发布，虽然在需求预测上略显乐观但市场对供应过剩事 态较为悲观，缺乏更多地缘提振下价格下行，而后半夜消息称美国计划扣押更多委内瑞拉油轮才令油价回暖，下 游燃油基本跟随运行。FU2601：2350-2400区间运行，LU2602：2940-3000区间 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-11燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 燃料油： 1、基本面：一位新加坡的贸易商表示，继11月库存大幅累积之后，亚洲低硫燃料油市场在整个12月以及1月仍将 保持供应非常充足的局面，并补充说目前下游船用燃料油需求看起来缺乏支撑力；一位贸易商表示，目前新加坡 高硫燃料油市场处于供应过剩的局面，且这种情况将持续一段时间；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油330.69美元/吨，基差为-7元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为415.78美元/吨，基差为11元/ 吨，现货平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油12月3日当周库存为2123.9万桶，增加64万桶；中性 4、盘面：价格在 ...

成文日期: 20251201 报告周期:周报 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 料油期货周报 核心观点： 本周燃料油合约整体呈现震荡态势,整体跟随国际原油波动节 奏。本周主要影响因素为欧佩克逐步放松减产,沙特等产油国剩余 产能释放,中质含硫原油供应增加,对燃料油供应形成支撑,后续 随着炼厂检修结束或进一步增长。俄罗斯作为高硫燃料油第一大生 产国,受美国制裁加码及乌克兰无人机袭击影响,炼厂开工率下滑, 但 11 月高硫燃料油发货量预计 221 万吨,环比增加 35 万吨,供应 呈现恢复迹象;乌克兰参与新一轮和平谈判,若局势缓和或推动俄 罗斯供应进一步增长。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 本周燃料油主力合约 FU2601 收于 2501 元/吨,较前一交易周 结算价下跌 1 元/吨,跌幅为 0.04%。本周最高价为 2522 元/吨,最 低价为 2426 元/吨，成交量为 2548897 手．持仓量为 201892 手， 减少 21702 手。 图 1：FU 燃油主力合约分时图 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com ...

高硫稳定弱势，低硫供应较预期增长 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 目录 低硫供应较预期增长，关注各地炼厂装置变化对供应的扰动影响。南苏丹消息，已恢复油田正常运营及原油正常出口，低硫供应缺口 扰动消退。低硫重质原料Dar Blend在8月苏丹与阿联酋矛盾后几乎全部流往泛新加坡地区。Dangote炼厂RFCC装置提前检修且检修 时长增长，同时原计划于12月初初级加工装置的轻度检修推迟至明年1月，预期低硫产出大幅回升。泛新加坡地区低硫供应减少不如 预期，马来西亚RFCC装置回归延迟，印尼新投产RFCC低负荷运行。需求端，低硫冬季发电需求暂无驱动，关注欧洲及东亚冬季气温 和天然气情况。 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-27燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：贸易商表示，新加坡枢纽周边的低硫和高硫燃料油下游需求预计在短期内保持疲软，购买兴趣大体上 将持续波动。尽管重质燃料油库存略有下降，但下游市场仍供过于求，据悉11月的询盘量较上月减少。供应商之 间在低硫燃料油询盘和即期加油船位方面的竞争加剧，给码头交货估值带来了持续压力，而上游原油价格震荡运 行，短期燃油继续低位运行。FU2601：2440-2480区间运行，LU2602：3000-3060区间运行 1、基本面：贸易商表示，亚洲低硫燃料油的供应预计保持健康，但短期内将限制价格上涨潜力，尤其是在下游 船 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - OPEC and EIA monthly reports have raised oil production forecasts, leading to concerns about supply glut and dragging down oil prices. The marine fuel market has weak supply and demand, with pressure on shipments [3]. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure will remain at current levels. Although there is a stable inflow of shipments from the Middle East, healthy downstream marine fuel demand still supports the high - sulfur fuel oil market, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils may narrow in the future. The price of FU2601 is expected to move in the range of 2580 - 2620, and LU2601 in the range of 3180 - 3220 [3]. - The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, while demand is neutral. The bullish factors include Russia's fuel export restrictions and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises, while the bearish factors are the unproven optimistic demand and the pressure on upstream crude oil [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The current situation of fuel oil: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is neutral; the inventory is neutral; the price on the disk is neutral; the high - sulfur main position is short - biased, and the low - sulfur main position is long - biased [3]. - Futures prices: The FU main contract futures price dropped from 2695 to 2616, a decrease of 2.93%; the LU main contract futures price dropped from 3310 to 3213, also a decrease of 2.93% [5]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions have generally declined, with the largest decline of 4.09% in Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price of Singapore diesel increased by 2.04% [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia's fuel export restrictions and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimistic demand on the demand side remains to be verified, and upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: OPEC and EIA monthly reports have raised oil production forecasts, leading to concerns about supply glut and dragging down oil prices. The marine fuel market has weak supply and demand, with pressure on shipments [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 16 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 36 yuan/ton, with the spot being nearly flat to the futures [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels [3]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - Main positions: The high - sulfur main position is short - biased with an increase in short positions, and the low - sulfur main position is long - biased with a shift from short to long [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - The report shows the historical data of the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures, but specific analysis is not provided [11]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has fluctuated in recent months. As of November 12, it was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels compared to the previous period [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil: The spot market is weak. Although there is some recovery in supply from regions like Mexico and the Middle East, the expected early issuance of new crude oil quotas in 2026 may weaken the fuel - oil feedstock demand. The high - sulfur ship - fuel demand is stable, but the power - generation demand has completely subsided [4][22][25]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: There are short - term supply shortages due to the unplanned shutdown of the Al - Zour refinery and the upcoming maintenance of the Dangote refinery. In the medium term, there is still supply pressure. The demand has no specific drivers, and the power - generation economy is inferior to that of natural gas [31][34][39]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - High - sulfur fuel oil: Tok has been buying large quantities of high - sulfur fuel oil at low prices, causing the spot premium to decline continuously. The export logistics of high - sulfur fuel oil in the near term remains relatively stable after the sanctions. The export of high - sulfur fuel oil from Mexico has recovered, and that from the Middle East has increased with the decline in power - generation demand. The expected early issuance of new crude oil quotas in 2026 may lead to a weakening of the fuel - oil feedstock demand [4]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil has rebounded slightly due to supply tightening. There is a short - term supply gap in low - sulfur fuel oil because of the unplanned shutdown and subsequent maintenance of the Al - Zour refinery's residue desulfurization unit. The Dangote refinery's maintenance may affect low - sulfur production, and the fourth - quarter quota for low - sulfur fuel oil has been tightened. The ship - fuel demand is stable without specific drivers [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: The market is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias, and short - term observation is recommended. - Arbitrage: Take profit on the FU1 - 5 reverse spread. The space for widening the LU01 - FU01 spread is limited. - Options: Observe [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Supply from Russia: Sanctions on Russia continue, and its large - scale export ports and major refineries have been attacked by drones. In October, the export of high - sulfur fuel oil decreased significantly, but the export from the Black Sea port of Tuapse is expected to increase in November [8][9]. - Supply from Mexico: The refining capacity of the Olmeca refinery has changed frequently, and new secondary units of various refineries have been put into operation. The export of high - sulfur fuel oil in October recovered to make up for the supply gap in September [13][14]. - Supply from the Middle East: The export of high - sulfur fuel oil increased after the power - generation demand subsided. The United States continues to impose sanctions on Iran [19][21]. - Demand: The expected early issuance of crude oil quotas may weaken the high - sulfur feedstock demand. The high - sulfur ship - fuel demand is supported stably, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth in the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers. The high - sulfur power - generation demand has completely subsided [22][25][28]. 3.2.2 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Supply: The unplanned shutdown of the Al - Zour refinery in the Middle East has led to a short - term supply gap. The Dangote refinery in Nigeria is undergoing unit rotation maintenance, which may affect low - sulfur production. The trade ban between South Sudan and the UAE has changed the low - sulfur logistics pattern [31][34][37]. - Demand: There is no specific driver for demand. The ship - fuel demand is stable, and the power - generation economy is inferior to that of natural gas [39]. - China's low - sulfur market: The quota for bonded low - sulfur exports in the fourth quarter has been tightened. The production of domestic refineries has decreased slightly, and some refineries may be affected by sanctions [42][44]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Fuel oil spot: Data on the prices of Brent crude oil, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil, as well as their spreads with Brent crude oil, are presented [47][49][51]. - High - sulfur fuel oil spreads: Data on cross - regional and cross - period spreads of high - sulfur fuel oil are provided [54]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil spreads: Data on cross - regional and cross - variety spreads of low - sulfur fuel oil are provided [61]. - Natural gas - fuel oil ratio: The equal - calorific - value prices of various fuels and their changes are presented [64]. - Cross - regional freight: Data on cross - regional freight for fuel oil transportation are provided [67]. - Singapore bunker spreads: Data on bunker spreads in Singapore are provided [70]. - Fuel oil inventory structure: Data on fuel oil inventories in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, the US, and other regions are presented [73]. - Northwest European inventory structure: Data on gasoline, diesel, and refined - oil inventories in the ARA region are provided [81]. - US Gulf inventory structure: Data on gasoline, diesel, crude - oil, and Cushing crude - oil inventories in the US Gulf region are provided [84]. - Terminal sales structure: In September, the total bunker volume in Singapore decreased slightly. The high - sulfur bunker volume increased year - on - year, while the low - sulfur bunker volume decreased slightly [87][88].