大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 8 月 19 日 燃料油日报 第一部分 相关数据 研究员： 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/8/19 | 2025/8/18 | 2025/8/12 | 2025/7/22 | Δ日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 2686 | 2713 | 2770 | 2924 | -27 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 9.5 | 11.2 | 14.9 | 19.3 | -1.7 | | FU仓单(吨) | 80710 | 80710 | 92710 | 113980 | 0 | | LU主力 | 3466 | 3480 | 3502 | 3581 | -14 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 4.4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 0.2 | | LU仓单 | 11110 | 11110 | 21050 | 90 | ...

燃料油产业数据月报 研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年8月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 01 观点综述 月度观点综述 | | 炼厂开工与产量方面，随着炼厂检修数量持续减少，全球燃料油产量月度环比继续回升。同时，伴随着 | | --- | --- | | | 产量的提升，中东高硫燃料油出口数量迅速恢复，全球高硫供应将逐步向宽松格局演变，但巴西出口数量 | | 供需 | 明显减少，对全球低硫市场产生一定支撑。需求端来看，船燃市场上Bunker对FOB的价差再次走阔，但沙 | | | 特、科威特地区的燃料油进口减少和出口增加或预示发电需求逐步接近尾声，同时中国燃料油维持低位， | | | 加工与船燃需求总体偏弱。 | | | 绝对价格方面，全球各地燃料油价格月内总体下跌。月内前半段，全球低硫价格表现相对较强，新加坡、 | | 价格与价差 | 富查伊拉等地的低硫裂解维持上行趋势，但 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 燃料油周报 （7.28-8.1） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 周度观点 2 期现价格 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 周度观点 燃料油周评：上周，国际原油整体呈现震荡走势，燃料油价格震荡跟随为主，高硫报收2862元/ 吨，周跌1.82%，低硫报收3571元/吨，周跌1.16%。 数据来源：wind 每周现货行情 | 品种 | 舟山高 | 舟山低 | 新加坡高 | 新加坡 低硫燃 | 中东高 | 新加坡 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硫燃油 | 硫燃油 | 硫燃油 | 油 | 硫燃油 | 柴油 | | 前值 | 518.00 | 525.00 | 412.48 | ...

| | | | 第一部分 前言概要 | | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 基本面情况 | | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、供应概况 | | 5 | | 三、需求概况 | | 8 | | 四、库存与估值 11 | | | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 15 | | | | 免责声明 16 | | | 能化板块研发报告 燃料油 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 高硫近端充裕现货压制，低硫偏弱震荡 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 7 月高硫燃料油市场整体受近端高供应和高库存压制，新加坡高硫现货 贴水及裂解低位震荡。需求端交易中东及埃及旺季发电需求回落，中国进料 需求在税改下刚刚开始小幅回升。供应端，市场预期在地缘冲突缓和和欧佩 克增产背景下高硫重质原料回升。 7 月低硫燃料油维持弱势震荡行情。低硫裂解跟随汽油裂解持续下行， 低硫现货贴水在 7 月中下旬也维持 5 美金/吨以下同期低位水平震荡。短中 期供应充裕并存在继续增长预期。需求端无具体利好驱动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High-sulfur fuel oil: Domestic high-sulfur spot is abundant in the near term, with the near-month internal and external price difference oscillating at a low level below zero. Asian high-sulfur supply remains at a high level, and the spot premium in Singapore continues to oscillate at a low level. The supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly less than expected. Demand is supported by the peak season of refined oil, the decline in high-sulfur cracking, and the increase in fuel oil consumption tax deduction in China. Seasonal power generation demand is gradually declining [3]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium of low-sulfur fuel oil oscillates. Supply continues to recover, but there is no specific driver for downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the adjustment and issuance rhythm of low-sulfur quotas in the near term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis** - High-sulfur: Domestic supply is abundant, Asian supply is high, and demand is supported by multiple factors. Seasonal power generation demand is decreasing [3]. - Low-sulfur: Supply is increasing, demand lacks drivers, and attention should be paid to quota adjustments [3]. - **Strategies** - Unilateral: Wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical and macro disturbances [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. Pay attention to the digestion of near-term high-sulfur spot and the adjustment or issuance of low-sulfur quotas [4]. - Options: No specific view [4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Supply Side** - Russia: High-sulfur exports increased slightly in July. Refinery offline capacity increased due to maintenance and domestic demand. Sanctions from the EU and the US continue [6]. - Mexico: High-sulfur supply decreased significantly. Olmeca's secondary device was put into operation, and the processing volume of some refineries decreased. High-sulfur exports remained at a low level [9]. - Middle East: High-sulfur exports were stable at a low level. The impact of the Iraq oil field attack on supply was limited. Sanctions on Iran continued. Summer power generation demand in Saudi Arabia and Iran may divert supply [14]. - South Sudan: Low-sulfur heavy raw material supply recovered stably, and the number of export tenders in August increased compared to July [24]. - Al-Zour Refinery: Low-sulfur exports are expected to remain at a high level, and exports to the pan-Singapore region increased [27]. - Nigeria: The RFCC device of Dangote Refinery is still unstable, and low-sulfur export tenders continue to be issued [28]. - **Demand Side** - High-sulfur: Ship fuel demand is stable, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of desulfurization tower ships. Power generation demand is expected to gradually subside in August and September. China's fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio is expected to increase, which will support feedstock demand [15][18][23]. - Low-sulfur: Ship fuel demand is stable, but there is no specific driver [31]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Price and Spread** - Fuel oil spot prices and spreads are presented in various charts, including the relationship between high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil and Brent crude oil, as well as cross-regional and cross-period spreads [39][40][43]. - **Inventory** - Inventory data of fuel oil in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, the US, and other regions are provided, along with the inventory structure of gasoline, diesel, and refined oil in Northwest Europe and the US Gulf [66][74][76]. - **Terminal Sales** - In June, Singapore's ship fuel bunkering volume decreased slightly compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year. The proportion of high-sulfur and low-sulfur ship fuel bunkering changed [79].

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures showed a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 3001.00 yuan and closing at 2984.00 yuan, reflecting a 0.95% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to experience a short-term rebound due to increased demand from power generation and refining, despite mid-term supply pressures [2] - The supply of fuel oil remains ample, with Middle Eastern loading volumes unaffected by regional conflicts, leading to a cautious outlook on price stabilization [3] - The cost of high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak in the short term, while low-sulfur fuel oil prices are anticipated to maintain a stable range [4] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Everbright Futures recommends shorting high-sulfur crack spreads at elevated prices [5] - Southwest Futures suggests a wait-and-see approach for the main fuel oil contract, indicating a cautious stance in the current market [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-26燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：尽管下游市场需求维持温和，但仍难以消化充足的库存，亚洲高硫燃料油市场近期供应预计 将保持稳定，同时，跨月价差逐步收窄至1月以来最低水平；尽管此前预计中东夏季用电高峰将推高高硫 燃料油发电需求，但截至目前尚未观察到明显积极影响，需求增长尚未对高硫市场的供应状况产生实质性 改变；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为430.95美元/吨，基差为158元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为517.5美元/吨，基 差为78元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油6月18日当周库存为2289.9万桶，减少22万桶 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High-sulfur fuel oil spot window transactions are active with high transaction prices, supporting the rebound of high-sulfur spot premiums. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the return of Russian refineries from seasonal spring maintenance. Russia's high-sulfur exports remain stable for now. Mexico's high-sulfur exports are declining as the secondary production capacity of its refineries improves. The US-Iran negotiations have made no substantial progress, and high-sulfur exports from the Middle East are expected to decline in May. On the demand side, the seasonal power generation demand for high-sulfur fuel oil provides support, with high import demand from Egypt and Saudi Arabia remaining at a high level. - The spot premium of low-sulfur fuel oil is fluctuating, but the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil continues to increase while downstream demand remains weak. The operation of the FCC gasoline unit at Nigeria's Dangote refinery is still unstable, leading to a continuous supply of low-sulfur fuel oil. South Sudan's low-sulfur raw material supply is gradually returning to the level at the beginning of 2024, with 8 shipments of low-sulfur cargoes expected to be loaded in May and June. The first shipment of 600,000 barrels in May is expected to arrive in the Singapore-Malaysia region in late May. Al-Zour's low-sulfur exports have rebounded to the high level during normal refinery operations. In the Chinese market, the production plan for low-sulfur fuel oil in June is expected to increase, with sufficient supply and stable demand in the domestic market. - The trading strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach for unilateral trading, and a long position in the FU9-1 calendar spread when the price is low. There is no option trading recommendation. [3][4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - High-sulfur fuel oil: The active spot window transactions and high prices support the rebound of spot premiums. Attention should be paid to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and Russian refinery maintenance. Mexico's exports are declining, and Middle East exports are expected to fall in May. Seasonal power generation demand provides support. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium is fluctuating, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. Nigeria's Dangote refinery has a continuous supply, South Sudan's exports are recovering, Al-Zour's exports are at a high level, and China's production plan for June is expected to increase. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Go long on the FU9-1 calendar spread when the price is low. - Options: No recommendation. [4] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Escalation of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Gradual Return of Russian Refinery Capacity - The conflict has intensified, and the EU is considering new sanctions. Russian refinery capacity is gradually returning after spring maintenance, with an expected increase in oil product exports from the Black Sea port of Tuapse in June. In the first week of June, Russia's high-sulfur exports decreased, and exports to Asia were temporarily halted. [6] 2. Mexico's High-Sulfur Supply Drops to the Level Before the Commissioning of the Olmeca Refinery - The Olmeca refinery's processing volume has stabilized, and its secondary devices are operating smoothly. Other refineries' operating conditions have also changed. In the first week of June, Mexico's high-sulfur exports were around the average level, and total exports in May decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. [9] 3. Lack of Substantial Progress in US-Iran Negotiations and Diversion of High-Sulfur Supply in the Middle East Due to Power Generation Demand - The US-Iran negotiations have been ongoing, but there has been no substantial progress. Sanctions on Iran and Russia continue. Saudi Arabia and Iran's summer power generation demand is expected to divert their external supply. In May, high-sulfur exports from the Middle East decreased as expected, and Iran's exports remained at a low level. [12] 4. High-Sulfur Power Generation Demand Enters the Peak Season in the Second and Third Quarters - Egypt's summer power generation demand provides support, with an increase in fuel oil import tenders. South Asia's power generation demand increases in the second quarter. Middle East's high-sulfur power generation demand has increased in advance, with Saudi Arabia increasing imports from Russia. [15] 5. Chinese Refineries' Recent Purchase意愿 May Decline; Feedstock Demand in India and the UAE Increases - Sanctions on Iran and Russia continue, affecting China's fuel oil import costs. China's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in April remained stable. India's feedstock demand rebounded in May, and the UAE's Ruwais refinery has recent feedstock demand. [18] 6. High-Sulfur Marine Fuel Demand Remains Stable, with Marginal Increases from the Steady Growth in the Number of Ships with Desulfurization Towers - The number of ships with desulfurization towers is growing steadily. Singapore's high-sulfur marine fuel sales in April increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year, and the market share of high-sulfur fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah port also increased. [21] 7. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Sudan's Port Exports are Disturbed by Air Strikes, but South Sudan's Export Tenders Continue - South Sudan's external raw material supply is gradually recovering. After the port was attacked, exports were temporarily suspended and then resumed. There have been multiple export tenders in May and June, with shipments expected to arrive in the Singapore-Malaysia region in May and June. [24] 8. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Exports from the Middle East's Al-Zour Refinery Remain at a High Level, and Supply to the Pan-Singapore Region Increases Month-on-Month - The Al-Zour refinery has issued new tenders for low-sulfur fuel oil sales. Exports have remained at a high level since March, and exports to the Pan-Singapore region have continued to recover. Attention should be paid to the return of South Sudan's low-sulfur heavy crude oil supply. [27] 9. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Nigeria's Near-Term Low-Sulfur Supply is Abundant, All Directed to Singapore - The FCC gasoline unit at the Dangote refinery is still unstable, resulting in a continuous supply of low-sulfur fuel oil. The refinery has issued multiple tenders for low-sulfur fuel oil sales. The Harcourt refinery is undergoing maintenance, and the Warri refinery has no crude oil quota. In May, Nigeria's low-sulfur exports were all directed to Singapore, and exports in the first week of June were at a high level. [28] 10. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Demand Lacks Specific Drivers, Marine Fuel Demand is Stable, and Power Generation Economics are Inferior to Natural Gas - Singapore's low-sulfur marine fuel sales in April were stable, with a marginal decline in market share. Fujairah's low-sulfur marine fuel sales in March increased. In Italy, the share of MGO in marine fuel has increased under the influence of ECA. [33] 11. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil in the Chinese Market: China's Bonded Low-Sulfur Production Remains Stable at Around 1 Million Tons - China has issued a second batch of low-sulfur fuel oil export quotas, which are currently abundant. In April, domestic refineries' bonded low-sulfur marine fuel production increased. The production plan for May is expected to decline slightly compared to April. [36] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Fuel Oil Spot - Includes price trends of Brent crude oil, high-sulfur fuel oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil, as well as price spreads between different fuel oils and Brent crude oil. [39][40][41] High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Interregional and Intertemporal Spreads - Includes ARA Brent Crack spreads, Singapore high-sulfur M1-M2 spreads, and HSFO380 spot premiums. [46][47][51] Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Interregional and Intervarietal Spreads - Includes spreads between different low-sulfur fuel oils and GO, as well as Singapore low-sulfur M1-M2 spreads and spot premiums. [52][53][56] Natural Gas-Fuel Oil Price Ratio - Compares the equal-heat-value prices of different fuels, including Singapore 380, Singapore 180, Singapore 0.5%, JKM, GO10ppm ARA, and TTF. [59][60] Interregional Freight Reference - Shows freight rates for different routes, such as Russia to Singapore, Rotterdam to Singapore, and Indonesia to Japan. [61][62] Singapore Bunkering Spreads - Explains the definitions of MOPS, Ex-wharf, and Delivered prices and shows the spreads between them for high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils. [63][64][65] Inventory Structure - Provides inventory data for Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, the US, and Japan, including weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. [66] Northwest European Inventory Structure - Includes inventory data for ARA gasoline, diesel, and refined oil products. [69][70] US Gulf Inventory Structure - Includes inventory data for US gasoline, diesel, Cushing crude oil, and commercial crude oil. [71][72] Terminal Sales Structure - In April, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year. High-sulfur marine fuel sales increased, while low-sulfur marine fuel sales decreased slightly. [74]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly due to the expected tight supply in June. The supply of compliant low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be limited in the next two weeks due to the lack of medium - sulfur blending components. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the increasing power generation demand as the Middle East and South Asia enter the peak air - conditioning electricity consumption season. - The spot prices of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are at a premium to the futures prices. - The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels to 21.409 million barrels in the week ending June 4. - The prices of fuel oil are above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat. - Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil main contracts have short positions, and the short positions are decreasing. - Overnight, with the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the financial market strengthened. Fuel oil followed the upward trend of crude oil, and the fundamentals are slightly strong. It is expected to perform better than crude oil today. The FU2507 is expected to trade in the range of 2930 - 2990, and the LU2508 is expected to trade in the range of 3530 - 3590 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fuel oil market, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and main contract positions. It also gives the expected trading ranges for the FU2507 and LU2508 contracts [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positives**: OPEC+ has extended additional production cuts (though implementation needs to be tracked), and China has issued import quotas. - **Likely Negatives**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia. The market is driven by the co - existence of supply - side production cuts that need to be observed and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight in the short term due to the lack of blending components. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by power generation demand. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 261 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 201 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels to 21.409 million barrels in the week ending June 4 [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - The report does not provide detailed spread data analysis, but shows a chart of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil futures spread over a long - term period [14]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from March 26 to June 4 is provided, showing fluctuations in inventory levels. The inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels in the week ending June 4 [8].

高硫旺季需求支撑，低硫近端供应回升 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 高硫燃料油当周近月裂解及月差均环比上行，现货贴水受近端供应压制维持在0值以下。短期内俄乌局势及欧美对俄制裁仍不明朗， 炼厂春季季节性检修，俄罗斯对外高硫出口暂无增长预期。墨西哥高硫主要供应炼厂二次产能逐步完善，对外高硫出口回落。需求端， 高硫季节性发电需求逐步启动，埃及已陆续发布高硫招标以用于发电，伊朗和沙特发电需求均开始提升。 低硫燃料油现货贴水震荡，但低硫供应持续回升且下游需求仍较疲弱。南苏丹对外低硫原料供应逐步回归，5至6月已有8船低硫货装 载预期，5月第一船60万桶预计于5月下旬到达新马地区。Al-Zour低硫出口回升至炼厂正常运行时期高位。尼日利亚近端低硫出口回 升且均往新加披方向，Dangote催化裂化装置听闻重回新开始运营，密切关注对外低 ...