东亚是全球的生育率洼地，韩国更是洼地中的洼地。 一般来讲，总和生育率低于1.5，就意味着人口将进入"低生育率陷阱"，一旦陷进去就很难再脱身。 而韩国生育率自2015年起自由落体，到2023年低至0.72。这么看来，韩国踏入的这个陷阱可谓深不见底。 近年来东亚三国生育率都已低于1.5▼ 编者荐语： 严格来说，一个国家和一个城市相比并不合理，不过低生育率的原因有一些相通之处，不妨看看韩国是 如何应对的，有哪些利弊。 以下文章来源于地球知识局 ，作者地球知识局 地球知识局 . 人文+地理+设计，全球视野新三观。 合作请联系：xiaobaibai_9999（注明品牌和需求） 然而 2023年以后，韩国生育率却来了一波触底反弹。 2024年总和生育率回弹至0.75，2025年第一季度更是 回到0.82。2024年新生儿数达到23.83万人，比2023年增长3.6%。 0.03的增长很多吗？看上去不多，但至少有希望。而同样踏入低生育率陷阱的，还有我们。 2023年，上海的户籍人口总和生育率已经跌至惊人的0.6，2024年也只回弹至0.72，还是低于韩国。 上海这种大城市的生育率更是"遥遥落后"▼ 那么，韩国是怎么实现生育 ...

今年 9 月份伊利股份的动销情况和备货情况如何？与去年同期相比有哪些变化？ 今年 9 月份正值中秋和国庆双节的备货阶段，由于双节都在 10 月份，因此 9 月份主要是备货期，10 月份才会看到动销情况。从 7、8 月份的动销情况来看， 常温液奶端的表现与二季度相差不大，没有明显改善。根据尼尔森的数据，7 月终端数据也显示动销情况没有显著好转。因此，经销商在 9 月备货时并不急 于提前准备，一个月时间已经足够。今年的中秋和国庆假期集中在 10 月初， 因此备货集中在 9 月。总体而言，今年经销商端的备货启动时间较去年稍晚。 伊利股份 20250922 摘要 伊利股份 2025 年中秋国庆备货策略稳健，不强行压货，关注渠道健康， 鼓励经销商把握销售旺季，备货启动时间较去年稍晚，主要集中在 9 月 底前完成。 伊利股份维持全年经营目标不变，预计收入小个位数增长，净利润率保 持 9%，常温液奶复苏偏弱，但其他业务超预期，上半年业绩良好支撑 全年目标。 伊利股份各品类表现分化，冷饮受备货周期影响较小，乳饮料优酸乳表 现突出，新品升级契合市场需求，双节期间主推经典和安慕希，并拓展 多元化礼赠市场。 伊利股份奶粉业务上半年 ...

以下文章来源于地球知识局 ，作者地球知识局 地球知识局 . 人文+地理+设计，全球视野新三观。 合作请联系：xiaobaibai_9999（注明品牌和需求） 本文来自微信公众号： 地球知识局 ，作者：一猴儿，制图：桐，编辑：Alicia，原文标题：《大涨0.03，韩国生育率超过上海了》，头图来自：AI生 成 东亚是全球的生育率洼地，韩国更是洼地中的洼地。 一般来讲，总和生育率低于1.5，就意味着人口将进入"低生育率陷阱"，一旦陷进去就很难再脱身。 而韩国生育率自2015年起自由落体，到2023年低至0.72。这么看来，韩国踏入的这个陷阱可谓深不见底。 近年来东亚三国生育率都已低于1.5▼ GEO-KNOWLEDGE GROUP 2023 型变化 12 0.03的增长很多吗？看上去不多，但至少有希望。而同样踏入低生育率陷阱的，还有我们。 2023年，上海的户籍人口总和生育率已经跌至惊人的0.6，2024年也只回弹至0.72，还是低于韩国。 上海这种大城市的生育率更是"遥遥落后"▼ 那么，韩国是怎么实现生育率反弹的呢？ 补贴生育大撒币 刺激生育最传统的方法就是大规模的财政支持——撒币。 家庭是生育的基石，鼓励结婚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in discussions about childbirth subsidies in Shanghai highlights the significant financial support provided by the government, with some individuals receiving substantial amounts, leading to public admiration and interest in the program [1][8]. Group 1: Subsidy Details - A user reported receiving a childbirth subsidy of 178,888 yuan after applying on August 10, with the funds arriving by August 22, showcasing the efficiency of the administrative process in Shanghai [1]. - The subsidy consists of two parts: a fixed medical subsidy of 4,500 yuan and a living allowance calculated based on the average monthly salary of the previous year, divided by 30 and multiplied by the number of maternity leave days [3][6]. - The calculation indicates that if the average monthly salary of the employee's company exceeds 30,000 yuan, the total subsidy could exceed 190,000 yuan, especially for multiple births or complicated deliveries [4][5]. Group 2: Public Reaction and Implications - The topic gained traction on social media, with many users expressing envy and calculating potential subsidies based on the provided formulas, indicating a high level of public engagement with the issue [3][8]. - Some individuals reported receiving nearly 300,000 yuan in total subsidies by combining government support with additional company contributions, reflecting the potential financial benefits of childbirth in Shanghai [5]. Group 3: Fraud Alerts - There have been reports of scams related to childbirth subsidies, where individuals are misled into paying a "guarantee fee" to receive the benefits, prompting police warnings about the importance of using official channels for such applications [7][10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in discussions about childbirth subsidies in Shanghai highlights the financial support provided by the government to new parents, with some individuals reporting substantial amounts received as subsidies, leading to public admiration and interest in the program [1][5]. Group 1: Subsidy Details - A user reported receiving a childbirth subsidy of 178,888 yuan after applying on August 10, with the funds arriving by August 22, showcasing the efficiency of the administrative process in Shanghai [1]. - The childbirth subsidy in Shanghai consists of two parts: a fixed medical subsidy of 4,500 yuan and a living allowance calculated based on the average monthly salary of the previous year, divided by 30 and multiplied by the number of days of maternity leave [2][3]. - The maximum subsidy amount is capped at three times the average monthly salary of urban employees in Shanghai, which can lead to substantial payouts for those with higher salaries [3]. Group 2: Public Reaction and Concerns - Many netizens expressed envy over the high amounts received, with some reporting total subsidies nearing 300,000 yuan when including additional allowances for complications or multiple births [5]. - There have been warnings about scams related to childbirth subsidies, where individuals are misled into paying a "guarantee fee" to receive the benefits, prompting police intervention to prevent financial losses [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to inventory clearance and reduced government subsidies, but anticipates recovery in the second half of the year with the potential positive impact of fertility subsidies and improved operational efficiency through digital management tools [1][2]. Financial Performance - For 25H1, the company achieved revenue of 9.15 billion yuan and a net profit of 1 billion yuan, representing year-on-year declines of 9.4% and 46.7%, respectively, aligning with prior forecasts [1]. - The gross margin decreased by 6.3 percentage points to 61.6%, while the net profit margin fell by 7.6 percentage points to 10.9%, largely due to reduced government subsidies and losses from inventory adjustments [2]. - The company plans to distribute at least 2 billion yuan in dividends and repurchase up to 10% of its shares, using at least 1 billion yuan for this purpose [2]. Business Segments - Revenue from dairy products and nutritional products declined by 9.1%, while revenue from raw milk plummeted by 79.8% in 25H1, reflecting ongoing demand pressures in the infant formula sector [1]. - The company reported revenues of 9.04 billion yuan in mainland China, 90 million yuan in the U.S., and 20 million yuan in Canada, with year-on-year changes of -9.5%, +11.9%, and -30.7%, respectively [1]. Future Outlook - The company expects the inventory adjustment process to conclude by August 2025, with anticipated positive effects from fertility subsidy policies in the second half of the year [1]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards to 19.91 billion, 21.20 billion, and 22.23 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing industry challenges and competitive pressures [2]. - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency through improved channel management and digital tools, which may lead to better profitability in the long term [2].

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market shows narrow fluctuations with a slight increase, but the risk of further declines remains high after short-term stabilization [17] - The stock market is experiencing a "shrinking circle" phenomenon, with large-cap indices outperforming small-cap indices, indicating a decrease in market risk appetite [19] - The A-share market's long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by recent policy shifts towards increased fiscal spending targeting residents [19][6] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market saw a trading volume of 2.83 trillion, down nearly 170 billion from the previous trading day, with around 3,200 stocks declining [19] - The market is characterized by increased volatility, suggesting that buying on dips is a better strategy than chasing highs [19] - Recent policies indicate a shift from investment-driven growth to consumer-driven growth, which is expected to support economic recovery [19] Group 3: U.S. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.53%, Dow Jones up 0.16%, and S&P 500 up 0.32%, driven by improved GDP and employment data [25] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.3%, with business investment growth significantly revised from 1.9% to 5.7% [25][40] - The dovish tone from the Federal Reserve Chairman at the Jackson Hole meeting opens the door for potential rate cuts, which may boost market risk appetite [25] Group 4: Currency Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1299, down 86 basis points from the previous close, indicating a potential rebound in the dollar [29] - The outlook for the dollar is expected to be weak in the short term, but the cost-effectiveness of shorting the dollar is considered low [30] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.16%, with construction materials and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while oilseeds and ferroalloys lagged [34] - The current pricing of domestic commodities remains at historical lows, suggesting that shorting commodities lacks cost-effectiveness [34] Group 6: Important Policies and News - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, state-owned enterprises' total profits were 24,786.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [37] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to avoid disorderly competition in the development of "Artificial Intelligence+" [39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 5.23, while the closing price as of August 28 was HKD 4.36 [1][5]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 were reported at RMB 9.15 billion and RMB 1 billion, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.4% and 46.7%, which aligns with the performance forecast [5][6]. - The company is undergoing a phase of inventory clearance, which is expected to continue until the end of August 2025, impacting revenue in the short term [5][6]. - The report anticipates a recovery in operations post-inventory clearance, with positive effects expected from fertility subsidies and increased dividend and buyback efforts [5][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the gross margin decreased by 6.3 percentage points to 61.6%, and the net profit margin fell by 7.6 percentage points to 10.9% due to reduced government subsidies and inventory-related losses [7][8]. - The company plans to distribute at least RMB 2 billion in dividends for 2025 and intends to repurchase up to 10% of its total shares, amounting to at least RMB 1 billion [7][8]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to RMB 199.1 billion, RMB 212.0 billion, and RMB 222.3 billion, reflecting a downward revision of 10%, 7%, and 7% respectively [8][12]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 0.34, RMB 0.40, and RMB 0.46, respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 times for 2025 [8][12]. - The report highlights that the company, as a leader in the infant formula industry, is expected to improve operational efficiency through enhanced channel management and digitalization efforts [7][8].

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend, with long-term bonds declining more than short-term ones. The risk of continued decline in interest rate bonds remains high after a period of fluctuation [19] - The A-share market showed a rebound led by the technology sector, with the STAR 50 index rising over 7%. The total market turnover was approximately 3 trillion, with over 2800 stocks rising [21] - The U.S. stock market indices all rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.21%, Dow Jones up 0.32%, and S&P 500 up 0.24%. The dovish comments from Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting opened the door for potential rate cuts [27] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The market's upward trend remains intact, supported by recent policy shifts towards increased fiscal spending aimed at households, such as the introduction of birth subsidies [21] - The political bureau meeting in July provided a more optimistic outlook on overseas risks compared to April, indicating a high probability of positive outcomes in U.S.-China trade negotiations [21] - The market is advised to avoid chasing high prices and instead focus on buying on dips, utilizing moving averages for incremental purchases [21] Group 3: U.S. Market Analysis - Powell's remarks suggest a high tolerance for inflation increases while being cautious about employment market weaknesses, indicating a low threshold for easing and a high threshold for tightening [27] - The current market sentiment is characterized by a return of speculative behavior, with expectations that the U.S. market will challenge new highs [27] Group 4: Currency Market Overview - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1385, down 211 basis points from the previous close. The dovish tone from Jackson Hole led to a significant drop in the dollar, but a rebound is anticipated [30] - The outlook for the dollar is expected to be weak in the short term, but the cost-effectiveness of shorting the dollar is considered low [30] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.16%, with steel and corn sectors leading gains while polyester and oil sectors lagged. The recommendation is to buy on dips, using the July 10 low as support [36]

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market is experiencing a fluctuating upward trend, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The stock-bond seesaw effect is evident, as the stock market continues to reach new highs while the bond market faces pressure. The 10-year government bond is unlikely to see a strong rebound before reaching the annual line [11] - The A-share market has seen a high turnover of 2.45 trillion, with nearly 2900 stocks declining. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a 10-year high, indicating that the upward trend is not over yet, with support at the 3450-point gap remaining intact [14][16] - The U.S. stock market is in a weak recovery phase, with the Nasdaq down 0.67% and the Dow Jones up 0.04%. The economic outlook remains optimistic, with expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September due to soft employment data [3][20] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The strategy for the bond market is to anticipate a downward trend with fluctuations near the annual line [7] - For the A-share market, the support level has been raised to the 3540-point gap, maintaining a bullish outlook as long as the support line holds [7] - The strategy for the U.S. stock market remains bullish, with expectations for new historical highs [7] - In the foreign exchange market, a strategic bullish outlook on the U.S. dollar is recommended, as the dollar index is expected to continue fluctuating [24][26] Group 3: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index has increased by 0.34%, with polyester, new energy, and oil sectors leading the gains. The recommendation is to buy on dips, using the July 10 low as support [28]