2025 年 9 月 30 日 碳酸锂：关注矿证变化，节前建议轻仓操作 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2511合约（收盘价） | 73,920 | 1,040 | 500 | 1,240 | -4,220 | 10,820 | | | | 2511合约（成交量） | 465,591 | -15,429 | 68,946 | -17,199 | -339,994 | 400,435 | | | | 2511合约（持仓量） | 251,749 | 3,109 | -19 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-26 碳酸锂继续维持去库，短期供需格局仍较好 市场分析 策略 当日期货盘面宽幅震荡，消费旺季有一定支撑，短期供需格局较好，库存持续去化，盘面有一定支撑，预计短期 盘面震荡运行，但后续矿端若复产，消费转弱后，盘面或回落。 单边：短期区间操作，可逢高卖出套保 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 2025-09-25，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于72980元/吨，收于74040元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化0.93%。当日成 交量为342719手，持仓量为261141手，前一交易日持仓量260654手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为350元/吨（电 碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单40309手，较上个交易日变化560手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价73100-74400元/吨，较前一交易日变化-100元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价70900-72100元/吨，较前一交易日变化-100元/吨。6%锂精矿价格830美元/吨，较前一日变化3美元/吨。据SMM 数据，碳酸锂期货价格延续震荡走势，主力合约处在7.27-7.45万元/吨之间震荡。当前正值行业需求旺季，下游材 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current lithium carbonate market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with the demand growth rate relatively faster, and the continuous inventory reduction supports the price. The supply-side resumption expectation and the demand-side "Golden September and Silver October" stocking rhythm form the main line of the long-short game. In the next 1-2 weeks, if the downstream pre-holiday replenishment demand is accelerated, the price support at the current position is still obvious, but it is necessary to be vigilant that the high supply elasticity limits the rebound height [3]. - In the short term, both supply and demand are increasing, but the demand growth is faster, and the inventory reduction supports the price. However, the uncertainty of the resumption of production makes the market sentiment cautious. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the next week, with a small upward space, but it may encounter resistance at high levels, so it will be volatile and strong, but the increase is limited [31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On September 17, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 73,640 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous trading day; the basis narrowed to -540 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased to 294,624 lots, and the trading volume shrank significantly by 31.26% to 343,863 lots [1]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The supply-side capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 66.41%, but the market focus shifted to the resumption expectation. If Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine resumes production as scheduled in November, it may increase the supply pressure. The demand side showed that the prices of downstream ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, and the cell prices also generally strengthened, but the short-term contradiction was the weak terminal demand. The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased continuously, and the destocking in the spot market continued [2]. - **Market Summary**: The current lithium carbonate market has a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with the demand growth rate relatively faster. The continuous inventory reduction supports the price. The supply-side resumption expectation and the demand-side "Golden September and Silver October" stocking rhythm form the main line of the long-short game [3]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 17, the lithium carbonate main contract price increased from 73,180 yuan/ton to 73,640 yuan/ton, with a 0.63% increase. The basis strengthened from -1,080 to -540. The battery-grade lithium carbonate market price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 73,100 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase [5]. - **Other Product Prices**: The prices of related products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also showed slight increases, while the open interest of the main contract decreased by 1.93%, and the trading volume decreased significantly by 31.26% [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotes**: On September 17, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,116 yuan/ton, up 281 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot transaction price continued to fluctuate upward, and the futures price continued to fluctuate. The downstream material enterprises still held a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the overall market trading activity was not high [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to the Passenger Car Association data, from September 1 to 7, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 3% year-on-year, but the wholesale increased by 5%. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 59.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year increased by 25% year-on-year [7]. - **Industry News**: On September 9, Ningde Times held a "Jianxiawo lithium mine resumption work meeting" to discuss the resumption work, aiming to complete the resumption in November, but the resumption is still uncertain [8]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those of lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., with data sources from SMM, Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, iFinD, and the R & D department of Tonghui Futures [9][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply and relatively weak demand. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72320 - 74960 [8][9][13]. - The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate has increased, resulting in losses in production. The cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged, also with losses. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The cash production cost at the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the output was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 95,442 tons, a 0.72% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,529 tons, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,311 yuan/ton, a 0.33% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 3,227 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 77,345 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 7,245 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72320 - 74960 [9]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High - level supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [12]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of most lithium - related products increased slightly. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.41% to 73,150 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.42% to 70,900 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 66.41%. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase from the previous month. The import volume decreased by 21.77% to 13,845.31 tons [19]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96% to 264,720 tons, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% to 316,400 tons. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 11.81% to 62,500 GWh [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed a certain upward trend, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines also had corresponding changes. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased significantly by 34.73% to 576,138 tons [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the domestic lithium ore market, with shortages in most months [29]. 3.4 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend, and the production capacity also increased. The monthly output in August 2025 was 85,240 tons [32]. - **Import and Export**: The import volume decreased, and the export volume was relatively small. The monthly import volume in August was 17,000 tons [32][39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market, with shortages in some months [39]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity**: The production of lithium hydroxide decreased, and the operating rate also declined. The monthly output in August 2025 was 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease from the previous month [19]. - **Export and Import**: The export volume decreased significantly, and the import volume was relatively small [42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium hydroxide market, with shortages in some months [45]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica was relatively high, resulting in losses in production. The cost - profit situation of different recycling materials also varied [48][50]. - **Processing Cost and Profit**: The processing costs of lithium mica and lithium spodumene increased, and the profit of lithium carbonate purification and other processing links also changed [48][50]. 3.7 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with a 1.12% week - on - week decrease to 138,512 tons. The inventory of smelters decreased, while the inventory of downstream and other parties increased [10]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide also showed certain changes, with the monthly inventory of downstream and smelters having corresponding fluctuations [55]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Cost**: The prices of some lithium batteries increased slightly, and the cost of battery cells also changed [59]. - **Production and Sales**: The monthly output and sales volume of lithium batteries increased, and the export volume also showed an upward trend [59]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium battery cells showed different trends for different types of batteries [61]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price of ternary precursors showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of the 5 - series (polycrystalline/consumer - type) ternary precursor decreased [64]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly output of ternary precursors increased, and the capacity utilization rate also showed corresponding changes [64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the ternary precursor market, with shortages in some months [67]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of the 5 - series (polycrystalline/consumer - type) ternary material decreased [70]. - **Production and Export - Import**: The production of ternary materials increased, and the export and import volumes also had corresponding changes [70][72]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations [72]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of iron phosphate lithium increased [74]. - **Production and Export**: The monthly output of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium increased, and the export volume of iron phosphate lithium also increased significantly [74][77]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed certain fluctuations [79]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles increased. The sales volume in August 2025 was 1.262 million vehicles, a 11.91% increase from the previous month [19][82]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles continued to increase [83].

Report Overview - The report is about the lithium carbonate market, dated September 15, 2025, titled "Lithium Carbonate: Supply and Demand Both Increase, Operating Under Pressure" [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and the price is under pressure. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 71,160, with a decrease compared to previous periods (e.g., -3,100 compared to T - 5). The trading volume was 410,989, also showing a decline. The open interest was 309,402, which decreased as well. Similar trends were observed for the 2601 contract [1] - **Basis and Other Data**: The basis between spot and 2511 contract was 1,290, with fluctuations over different time intervals. The difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250, remaining stable on the latest day [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 842, showing a downward trend. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 72,450, down 400 from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 72,398 yuan/ton, down 406 yuan/ton from the previous workday. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 7.09 - 7.4 million yuan/ton, with an average of 7.245 million yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 6.96 - 7.08 million yuan/ton, with an average of 7.02 million yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton [2] - On September 12, 2025 (Argentine local time), Zijin Mining's Lithium Industry Kesi 3Q lithium salt lake project with an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate was put into operation. The second - phase project with a planned capacity of 40,000 tons/year is in the pre - work stage. After full operation of both phases, the annual capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is -1, within the range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4] Core View of the Report - The short - term fundamental supply - demand pattern is good. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The sharp decline in the market on the day was mainly affected by the expected resumption of production of previously shut - down mines. The mid - term supply - demand shows an over - supply cycle, and the market may be weak and volatile after the mine resumes production and consumption support weakens [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 10, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 69,040 yuan/ton and closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, with a - 4.87% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 751,480 lots, and the open interest was 340,814 lots (351,340 lots the previous day). The current basis was 3,330 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,101 lots with no change from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 71,500 - 75,400 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,600 - 71,800 yuan/ton, both down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 805 US dollars/ton, down 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The downstream material factories' price - fixing enthusiasm increased significantly. In September, the market showed simultaneous growth in supply and demand, and the overall supply of lithium carbonate was still tight. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, while that from lithium mica decreased to 15% [1] Strategy - The short - term supply - demand pattern is good. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increases, and that from mica decreases in the short term. The consumption end is in the peak season with good downstream production schedules. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The mid - term over - supply cycle remains unchanged, and the market may be weak and volatile later [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the trend intensity of lithium carbonate is -1, suggesting a weak - downward trend, and advises to pay attention to the actual progress of production resumption [3]. Summary by Related Content Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 70,720 yuan, down 2,180 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 751,480 lots, up 159,805 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 340,814 lots, down 10,526 lots from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 70,800 yuan, down 2,100 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 168,470 lots, up 53,958 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 174,101 lots, down 4,445 lots from T - 1. The warehouse receipt volume was 38,101 lots, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Base - related Data**: The basis of spot - 2511 was 2,730 yuan, up 1,030 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2601 was 2,650 yuan, up 950 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2511 - 2601 was - 80 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 2,250 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the difference between spot and CIF was 6,502 yuan, down 768 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 849 yuan, down 30 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,815 yuan, down 50 yuan from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan, down 1,150 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan, down 1,150 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Industry Chain - related Data**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,620 yuan, down 275 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage type) was 32,225 yuan, down 275 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage type) was 29,430 yuan, down 270 yuan from T - 1 [1]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,414 yuan/ton, down 1,175 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2]. - Codelco and SQM are about to finalize a landmark cooperation agreement to jointly mine lithium in the Atacama Salt Flat. Supporters believe this will diversify Codelco's revenue sources as it faces financial pressure due to falling copper production and debt surges from over - budget expansion projects [3].

碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2025 年 9 月 11 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 二、 行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 1. 外电 9 月 9 日消息，澳大利亚 Galan Lithium 公司宣布，其位于阿根廷的 Hombre Muerto West(HMW)锂盐项目一期建设取得重大进展，已完成 4 号池的 设计，其将支持 4000 吨/年碳酸锂当量的运营，并正在推进位于悉尼的纳米 过滤厂的建设。HMW 项目分多个阶段推进，中期目标为 2026 年实现每年 2.1 万吨 LCE，2028 年达到每年 4 万吨，并在 20 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年9月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为19419吨，环比增长2.04%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为94756吨，环比增加0.28%,上周三元材料样本企业库存 为17644吨，环比减少1.05%。 供给端，2025年8月碳酸锂产量为85240实物吨，预测下月产量为86730实物吨，环比增加 1.75%,2025年8月碳酸锂进口量为17000实物吨，预测下月进口量为19500实物吨，环比增加 14.71%。需求端，预计下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比 有所增长，低于历史同期平均水平，需求持续走强 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: Buy put options [4] Core Viewpoints - The futures market of lithium carbonate may decline due to the news of mine restart and weak overall commodity sentiment. The price will gradually return to the fundamentals if the previously shut - down mines resume production [2][3]. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 74,740 yuan/ton and closed at 72,900 yuan/ton, a - 2.62% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 591,675 lots, and the open interest was 351,340 lots (364,137 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 300 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 38,101 lots, a change of 650 lots from the previous day [2]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,700 - 75,500 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,750 - 72,950 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 850 US dollars/ton, also unchanged. The market is in the peak demand season with downstream rigid demand, but procurement activities slowed slightly this week as the futures price rebounded. The supply side shows a structural differentiation, with lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounting for over 60% and that from lepidolite dropping to 15%. In September, supply and demand are both increasing, but demand is growing faster, and overall supply is expected to be tight [3]. Strategy - The futures market declined significantly after oscillation, affected by weak commodity sentiment and the possible approval of Jiangxi manufacturers. The short - term spot supply - demand pattern is good, with reduced inventory and production. If the previously shut - down mines resume production, the price will return to fundamentals, and the futures market may decline. Attention should be paid to mine operation, and participants should manage risks [3].