Workflow
空头回补
icon
Search documents
豆粕:隔夜美豆涨幅较大,连粕或反弹,豆一:反弹震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:54
2025 年 08 月 22 日 商 品 研 究 | | | 收盘价 (日盘) | 涨 跌 收盘价 | (夜盘) | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 (元/吨) | 3999 | -23(-0.57%) | 3995 | -18(-0.45%) | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 (元/吨) | 3113 | -33(-1.05%) | 3105 | -23(-0.74%) | | | CBOT大豆11 (美分/蒲) | 1055 | +19.5(+1.88%) | | | | | (美元/短吨) CBOT豆粕12 | 293.8 -3.2 | (-1.08%) | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 (43%) | | | | | | 3080~3110, M2509+0/+30, 较昨持平; | 较昨-20至持平; 8-9月M2509+30/+60, | 8月27日前提货M2509-50; 持平; | 现货基差 9月M2509+0/+10/+40, 持 | | | 山东 (元/吨) | 平; 10月M2601+0/+ ...
近期A股港股背离原因分析,关注负面预期Pricein后港股的后续布局机会:你追我赶,共迎牛市
董易 (8621)23297818× dongyi@swsresearch.com 2025 年 08 月 19 日 你追我赶,共迎牛市 ——近期 A 股港股背离原因分析,关注负面预期 Price in 后港股的后续布局机会 相关研究 《重点关注港股大众消费的行业轮 动!——港股行业比较之育儿补贴 政策影响分析》 2025/07/29 《外资通过Keystone正在流入港股 市场——港股行业比较系列之资金 观察》 2025/07/08 《牛市换挡期——2025 下半年港 股及海外中资股投资策略》 2025/06/10 证券分析师 董易 A0230519110003 dongyi@swsresearch.com 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 联系人 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 在我们此前发布的《牛市换挡期——2025 下半年港股及海外中资股投资策略》中明确提 示,港股在中报季前 ...
外资跑步进场抢筹,紧跟一点不踏空!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 13:29
Group 1 - Foreign capital is accelerating its purchase of Chinese stocks, driven primarily by long positions, with a buy-to-cover ratio of approximately 9:1 [1][3] - The A-share market has reached a historical high with nearly 3 trillion in trading volume, but many investors feel anxious as their stocks are not participating in the rally [1] - High-frequency buying by hedge funds has led to a 4.9% overweight in Chinese markets compared to the MSCI World Index, with Chinese stocks making up 5.8% of total positions and 7.3% of net positions [3] Group 2 - The phenomenon of "chasing gains and missing out" is prevalent among retail investors, who often feel anxious during rapid market increases [4] - Many retail investors react to market trends without understanding the underlying intentions of capital flows, leading to a vicious cycle of fear and missed opportunities [4] Group 3 - Market trading behaviors extend beyond simple buying and selling, with "profit-taking" and "short covering" being significant indicators of market sentiment [5] - Observing "profit-taking" can signal potential market peaks, while "short covering" often indicates market bottoms [6][10] Group 4 - The rationale behind foreign capital's aggressive buying includes improved policy environments, better-than-expected economic data, and attractive valuation levels, with the iShares China Large-Cap ETF trading at a P/E ratio of only 11.41, significantly lower than the global average [11] Group 5 - Retail investors are advised to focus on understanding the essence of trading rather than blindly following market trends, emphasizing the importance of observing real capital movements [13][14]
低温天气影响巴西产量 阿拉比卡咖啡豆涨至两个月来高点
智通财经网· 2025-08-19 12:49
Core Viewpoint - The price of Arabica coffee futures in New York has risen to its highest level in two months due to concerns over multiple rounds of low temperatures and light frost in Brazil, a major coffee-producing region [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The most active futures contract saw a price increase of up to 2.6% on Tuesday, marking the fifth consecutive day of price rises, potentially setting a record for the longest streak since April [1] - The recent price rebound is attributed to lower-than-expected export volumes from Brazil, along with frost weather in key coffee-growing areas [1] Group 2: Production Forecast - Analysts predict that Brazil's coffee production this year may fall below expectations due to adverse weather conditions, with concerns extending to the 2026 harvest as well [1] - A survey by Coffee Trading Academy estimates that Brazil's total production of Arabica and Robusta coffee for the 2025-2026 season will reach 63.9 million bags (each bag weighing 60 kg), a decrease of 2.1% from the previous year [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent cold weather has led to an early flowering period, raising concerns about future coffee yields [1] - Despite the recent price increase, some analysts suggest that the rebound may have lost momentum due to a significant drop in trading volume over the past week [1]
豆粕:隔夜美豆收涨,连粕或反弹,豆一:反弹震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:49
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Overnight, US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal futures may rebound; Dalian soybean futures are expected to rebound and fluctuate [1]. - The trend strength of soybean meal and soybean is +1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend for the main - contract futures prices on the day - trading session of the report date [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE soybean 2511 closed at 4056 yuan/ton during the day session, down 15 yuan (-0.37%), and up 24 yuan (+0.59%) to 4068 yuan/ton during the night session. - DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3137 yuan/ton during the day session, down 27 yuan (-0.85%), and up 5 yuan (+0.16%) to 3142 yuan/ton during the night session. - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1042.75 cents/bushel, up 14.25 cents (+1.39%). - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 294.3 dollars/short - ton, down 0.7 dollars (-0.24%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Shandong, the price range of soybean meal (43%) is 3060 - 3100 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different delivery months remaining flat. - In East China, the price of soybean meal is 2990 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), with basis prices for different delivery months remaining flat. - In South China, the price range of soybean meal is 3040 - 3070 yuan/ton, with the price down 60 yuan to flat compared to the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 2.4 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 7.15 million tons per day two trading days ago. - The inventory of soybean meal was 96.09 million tons per week, and the data for the previous trading day was not available [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - On August 15, CBOT soybean futures closed moderately higher, supported by active short - covering before the weekend. The price rose 5.6% this week, the first weekly increase in four weeks and the largest single - week increase since early April, mainly due to the USDA's soybean yield forecast being lower than market expectations. - The NOPA reported that the US soybean crushing volume in July reached a record 195.7 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 7.01%, higher than market expectations and the highest level since January, which provided additional support for soybean futures. - However, due to the trade tension between the US and China, the largest buyer, the new - crop export demand was weak, limiting the price increase [3].
布米普特拉(北京)投资基金管理有限公司:港股单日爆买破纪录
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 06:14
Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market achieved a record daily trading volume exceeding 300 billion HKD, driven by a rare collaboration between foreign and mainland funds, resulting in a significant 5.7% surge in the Hang Seng Index [2] - The net buying from mainland investors reached 38 billion HKD, while HSBC's single stock trading volume surpassed 10 billion HKD, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The premium on Hang Seng Index futures soared to 2.8%, reflecting heightened market optimism [3] Group 2 - There is a notable decrease in short-selling, with the short-selling ratio dropping to 8%, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [5] - Market participants are betting on a potential easing of US-China tariffs, which could influence future trading dynamics [5] - The AH premium index has narrowed to 140, indicating a potential valuation correction in the market [5] - However, risks remain as real estate debt issues are not fully resolved, and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes continue to create uncertainty [5] - Ongoing pressure from half-year earnings reports is also a concern for market stability [5]
国新国证期货早报-20250813
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On August 12, 2025, A-share major indices closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a seven - day consecutive rise and hitting a new high for the year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1881.5 billion yuan, an increase of 54.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The policies related to coal production verification have affected supply, with some coal mines shutting down. There are expectations of tightened coking coal supply and steel mill production restrictions [2]. - Due to large net short positions of speculators, there was short - covering in the US sugar market, leading to the upward movement of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract [2]. - The 90 - day suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs between China and the US boosted market sentiment, causing the upward movement of Shanghai rubber [3]. - The USDA lowered the forecast of US soybean production, leading to a 2.18% increase in CBOT soybeans on August 12. In the domestic market, although there is high supply pressure in the short - term, concerns about future supply shortages support the strong and volatile adjustment of soybean meal prices [3][5]. - The current low - season for pork consumption, high - temperature weather, and expected increase in group - farm pig slaughter are keeping the pig market in a state of loose supply and demand [5]. - On August 12, the palm oil market had many fundamental positive factors, and its price continued to rise [6]. - The 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce supported copper prices. The supply and demand situation made the copper price show an oscillatory trend [6]. - Positive news in the steel market, including macro - level agreements and industry - level production restriction expectations, drove steel prices to run strongly in the short term [6]. - The supply of iron ore tightened, and the demand was resilient, resulting in an oscillatory trend of iron ore prices [7]. - The asphalt market had low demand but was supported by low inventory, with prices oscillating in the short term [7]. - The log market had a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with weak spot trading, and prices were affected by multiple factors [7][8]. - The cotton inventory decreased, and the price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract showed certain trends [8]. - The adjustment of mineral resource policies and the tightening of the Guinean bauxite mining policy increased the risk of bauxite supply interruption, and the Shanghai aluminum market was oscillating [9]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On August 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3665.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.53% to 11351.63 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.24% to 2409.40 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.91% to 1069.81 points. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4143.82, a rise of 21.31 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 12, the coke weighted index closed at 1792.3, a rise of 80.7; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1292.3 yuan, a rise of 85.6 [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by short - covering in the US sugar market and an increase in spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract moved up on August 12. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in July 2025 were 3.5937 million tons, a decrease of 4.98% compared to the same period last year [2]. Rubber - The 90 - day suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs between China and the US boosted market sentiment. On August 12, Shanghai rubber oscillated upward. In the first half of 2025, US tire imports increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the estimated total tire shipments in 2025 increased by 0.9% compared to 2024 [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on August 12, CBOT soybeans rose 2.18%. The USDA lowered the forecast of US soybean production for the 2025/26 season. Domestically, on August 12, the M2601 main contract closed at 3091 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.62%. Although there is high supply pressure in the short - term, concerns about future supply shortages support the price [3][5]. Live Pigs - On August 12, the live pig futures price oscillated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 14230 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.64%. The current low - season for pork consumption and expected increase in group - farm pig slaughter keep the market in a state of loose supply and demand [5]. Palm Oil - On August 12, the palm oil price continued to rise. The main contract P2509 closed at 9362, a rise of 1.56%. From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month [6]. Shanghai Copper - The 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce supported copper prices. The supply and demand situation made the copper price show an oscillatory trend [6]. Steel - On August 12, rb2510 closed at 3258 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3484 yuan/ton. Positive news drove steel prices to run strongly in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - On August 12, the iron ore 2509 main contract rose 1.7% to 807.5 yuan. The supply tightened, and the demand was resilient, resulting in an oscillatory trend [7]. Asphalt - On August 12, the asphalt 2510 main contract rose 0.57% to 3506 yuan. The low - demand but low - inventory situation made the price oscillate in the short term [7]. Logs - On August 12, the log 2509 contract had certain price movements. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The market had a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and prices were affected by multiple factors [7][8]. Cotton - On the night of August 12, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14090 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 85 contracts [8]. Alumina and Shanghai Aluminum - On August 12, ao2509 closed at 3308 yuan/ton. Policy adjustments increased the risk of bauxite supply interruption. al2509 closed at 20735 yuan/ton, and the market was oscillating [9].
市场情绪升温,棕油领涨油脂
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 03:17
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [7] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [8] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating Bearish [9] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating [14] - Sugar: Oscillating [15] - Pulp: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating Bearish [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors, and it is likely to operate strongly in the near future under the stabilization of market sentiment [2][3][7]. - The protein meal market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with the far - month contracts expected to strengthen [8]. - The corn/starch market is currently in a weak state, with short - term uncertainties in old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [9][10]. - The live pig market presents a situation of "weak reality + strong expectation", with high inventory pressure in the short - term and potential supply reduction in the long - term [10]. - The natural rubber market rebounds due to some speculative sentiment, and the short - term performance is expected to follow the macro - wide fluctuations [10][12]. - The synthetic rubber market is supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, and it is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [13]. - The cotton market returns to fundamental trading, with the price expected to oscillate within a certain range [14]. - The sugar market is under downward pressure due to the increasing supply pressure [15]. - The pulp market remains weak, and the strategy is to pay attention to the reverse spread during the decline [16]. - The log market has limited fundamental changes and is mainly treated within a range [17][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Affected by factors such as short - covering, US policy uncertainty, OPEC+ production increase, good growth of US soybeans, and the production and inventory situation of palm oil and rapeseed oil [2][7]. - **Outlook**: It is likely to operate strongly in the near future, and attention should be paid to the performance of upper technical resistance [3][7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the good rate of US soybeans is 69%, and there are still weather risks. Domestically, the short - term supply is sufficient, and there may be a supply gap in the long - term [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot and basis may oscillate at a low level, and the far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Logic**: The supply side has inventory digestion and import auction issues, and the demand side has low acceptance of high - priced grains. The new crop situation is normal [9][10]. - **Outlook**: There are uncertainties in short - term old crop de - stocking, and there is a downward trend after new crop listing [10]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Logic**: The supply is strong in the short, medium, and long - term, and the demand is weak. The policy has a guiding effect on capacity reduction [10]. - **Outlook**: The market presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention should be paid to reverse spread strategies [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Driven by some speculative sentiment, the short - term fundamentals have no major contradictions [10][12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term performance follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, the raw material market is in a weak downward trend [13]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level. The price oscillates within a certain range [14]. - **Outlook**: The single - side oscillates, and the range operation is recommended. The reverse spread of the monthly difference is stopped profit at the stage [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term supply pressure increases [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the long - term, and the short - term strategy is to short on rebounds [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The supply pressure of hardwood pulp is high, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: The recent fluctuations follow the macro - situation, and it is expected to oscillate widely [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Logic**: The cost increases, the supply pressure eases, and there are both long and short factors in the market [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals change little, and it is mainly operated within the range of 800 - 850 [18].
豆粕:隔夜美豆小幅收涨,连粕偏强震荡,豆一:反弹震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 02:34
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Overnight, US soybeans closed slightly higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures showed a relatively strong and volatile trend; the soybean No.1 futures showed a rebound and oscillation trend [1]. - On August 4, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to short - covering, but the abundant global supply, including the Brazilian soybean harvest and strong US soybean production prospects, continued to suppress the upward momentum of soybean prices. Concerns about Sino - US trade tensions also limited market sentiment. The US soybean crop was still in good condition in early August, and the short - term weather in the US Midwest was expected to be mild and dry, with more mild and rainy weather possible in the next 6 - 15 days. As of August 3, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, down 1 percentage point from a week ago, in line with market expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Futures Prices - DCE soybean No.1 2509 closed at 4117 yuan/ton during the day session, down 9 yuan (-0.22%), and 4133 yuan/ton during the night session, up 7 yuan (+0.17%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3024 yuan/ton during the day session, up 20 yuan (+0.67%), and 3045 yuan/ton during the night session, up 24 yuan (+0.79%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 994.5 cents per bushel, up 6.5 cents (+0.66%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 285.1 dollars per short - ton, up 4.7 dollars (+1.68%) [1]. 2. Spot Prices - In Shandong, the soybean meal price was 2940 - 2960 yuan/ton, with various basis adjustments compared to the futures contract M2509 and M2601, and price changes were mostly flat or up by 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - In East China, the price was 2920 - 2980 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan compared to the previous day, with different basis levels for different contract months [1]. - In South China, the price was 2940 - 2970 yuan/ton, up 20 - 30 yuan compared to the previous day, and also had different basis adjustments for different contract months [1]. 3. Industrial Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 16.7 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 15.5 million tons two trading days ago [1]. - The inventory data for the previous week was not available, and the inventory two weeks ago was 96.1 million tons [1]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal was +1, and that of soybean No.1 was 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day session of the reporting day [3].
Centene Stock Showing Signs of Life After Revenue Beat
Schaeffers Investment Research· 2025-07-25 15:09
Core Insights - Centene Corp (NYSE:CNC) stock increased by 3.9% to $27.75 despite reporting an adjusted second-quarter loss of 16 cents per share, which was worse than the projected loss of 11 cents per share. However, revenue exceeded estimates, leading to a recovery in stock price after significant premarket gains [1] - The stock has been recovering from a 55% year-to-date deficit, primarily due to a 40% drop on July 1 when the company withdrew its 2025 forecast. The shares reached an eight-year low of $26.66 but are now testing the 10-day moving average [2] - Options trading activity has shown a strong preference for calls, with 83,508 calls purchased compared to 12,760 puts over the past two weeks, resulting in a call/put volume ratio of 6.53, indicating high call buying activity [3] - Recently, there has been a shift towards puts, with 58,000 puts traded, which is 26 times the average intraday volume and more than double the number of calls. The September 22.50 put is particularly popular, suggesting some traders may be hedging against potential declines [4] - Short interest has increased by 26% in the last two reporting periods, indicating growing bearish sentiment amidst the stock's technical challenges [4]