在日本央行宣布加息后，日本十年期国债收益率攀升至数十年高位，日元在震荡交易中延续跌势，日本 股市则维持上涨态势。 尽管经济学家此前已普遍预期日本央行会在周五作出加息决定，但交易员将关注点放在了央行未明确给 出未来紧缩政策的时间指引这一点上。 随着市场对12月加息的预期增强，目前日元已较11月末低点反弹逾1%，此前兑美元汇率曾短暂触及十 个月低点。 上周有报道称，日本央行官员认为利率最终可能在紧缩周期结束前升至0.75%以上，一位前执行理事则 暗示，到2027年日本央行可能累计加息多达四次。 由于当前通胀仍处高位，且日本与主要经济体之间的利差依然显著，投资者将目光转向行长植田和男今 日晚些时候的新闻发布会，以寻找未来加息路径的线索。 道富投资管理资深固定收益策略师Masahiko Loo在报告中指出："此次加息本就是板上钉钉之事，但市 场真正的焦点在于植田和男的表态基调，"他进一步分析，"央行需在鸽派立场与鹰派立场之间找到精准 平衡——态度过软或导致日元进一步贬值，而过度鹰派则可能引发市场重现2024年7月的抛售潮。" 此前植田和男已释放明确加息信号，市场对日本央行收紧政策的押注随之升温，而本次加息决议正是在 ...

即将退休的亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周三发表文章称，美联储应继续关注解决通胀问题，预计高企的 物价压力将持续到明年大部分时间。博斯蒂克还透露，在美联储12月政策会议上，他不仅倾向于维持利 率不变，而且建议在整个2026年都保持这一水平，理由是经济顺风可能继续给通胀带来上行压力。他写 到："在权衡了所有考虑因素之后，仍然认为价格稳定是更清晰、更紧迫的风险。几乎看不到任何迹象 表明物价压力会在最早2026年中后期之前消散，预计即使到2026年底，通胀仍将高于2.5%。"在劳动力 方面，他表示，虽然劳动力需求正在降温，但严重的劳动力市场衰退并非是最有可能出现的情景。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizes the risks of inflation and a weak yen, persuading Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to accept a plan for interest rate hikes in December [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Hike - A small interest rate increase of 25 basis points to 0.75% is almost certain later this month, alleviating concerns that the Bank of Japan would yield to political pressure and abandon tightening policies [1] - This communication appears to have been effective, as both the market and the new Japanese government have received the signal [1] Group 2: Future Rate Path Communication - A more complex issue lies in how the Bank of Japan will communicate its future rate hike path, as there is no consensus on the reasonable range for neutral interest rates [1] - The current state between the central bank and the government is described as a "fragile truce," which keeps the bond market tense [1] - Investors are now focused on how Ueda will articulate the subsequent pace of interest rate increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of selling Australian government bonds is expected to continue due to upcoming economic data that may reinforce the necessity for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adopt a tightening policy next year [1][3] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Australia's 10-year government bonds rose to 4.61%, the highest level since January, partly due to a global bond sell-off and market expectations of increased interest rates following the upcoming GDP data [1] - The Australian bond market experienced its largest monthly decline in a year in November, influenced by global sell-off pressures from the Federal Reserve's expectations and fiscal pressures in Japan and Europe [3] - The gap between U.S. and Australian 10-year government bond yields has widened to the highest level in nearly three years due to higher-than-expected consumer price increases in Australia [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The RBA is expected to maintain interest rates next week, but its statement will be closely monitored for future policy guidance, especially following stronger-than-expected job growth in October [1] - Analysts predict that the 10-year bond yield could reach 4.75% by the end of the year, as market expectations for rate hikes have shifted significantly [1] - If inflationary pressures persist and the labor market tightens further, the RBA may raise interest rates next year, with a cautious stance on holding clear positions in the bond market [3]

Group 1 - The ADP employment report for October shows that the U.S. private sector added 42,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and ending a two-month decline [1] - The ISM services PMI increased to 52.4, indicating a rebound in business activity, while the ISM prices paid index reached a new high since 2022, highlighting ongoing inflation pressures [1] - The strong dollar, with the index rising to 100.22, has put downward pressure on gold prices, which retreated to $3,970, failing to break the critical $4,000 level [1][2] Group 2 - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have heightened market tension, with expectations for continued tightening policies, further pressuring gold prices [2] - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 37th day, creating uncertainty in the market and delaying the release of important data, which has amplified the impact of the ADP employment report [2] - Gold prices are currently fluctuating around $3,970, with short-term gains constrained by the strong dollar; a breakthrough above $4,000 could target $4,082, while a drop below $3,929 may lead to a decline towards $3,854 [2] Group 3 - The strong U.S. economic data continues to support a robust dollar, putting downward pressure on gold, which has not yet surpassed the $4,000 mark [3] - Global uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, and Federal Reserve policy expectations, still provide support for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Investors should closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the progress of the government shutdown, as these factors will significantly influence market sentiment and asset prices [3]

阿根廷总统米莱领导的自由进步党在中期选举中意外大胜，为其激进的紧缩政策赢得了关键的民意背书，也让此前向该国提供200亿美元货币互换支持的美国政府松了一口气。此次中期选举涉及众议院半数席位（127席）和参议院三分之一席位的改选，自由进步党在众议院中赢得了65席。🗒️阿根廷汇市周一高开，预计周一股市也将迎来反弹。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the USD/JPY exchange rate is currently stable around 148, with recent CPI data from Tokyo suggesting a slowdown in inflation, which may impact monetary policy decisions in Japan [1][2] - According to Capital Economics, the weaker-than-expected CPI data in Tokyo has exaggerated the perception of nationwide inflation slowing down, leading to speculation about the likelihood of an interest rate hike in October [1] - The report estimates that recent measures, such as free childcare initiatives, have lowered Japan's overall inflation rate by approximately 0.7 percentage points, with expectations that the nationwide inflation rate will decrease from 3.3% to 3.1% [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY is currently supported at the 200-day moving average around 148.40, with indicators showing that bullish momentum remains intact despite some weakening [2] - If the USD/JPY breaks above 149.00, it may face resistance in the 149.40-149.45 range, with a potential challenge to the psychological level of 150.00 [2] - Conversely, if the exchange rate falls below the support level of 148.40, it could lead to a rapid decline towards targets of 148.00, 147.50, and the 147.20-147.15 area, with a shift to a bearish trend if it drops below 147.00 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Scope Ratings has downgraded the outlook for France's sovereign credit rating to negative while maintaining its "AA-" rating, highlighting the country's deteriorating credit situation amid political deadlock and fiscal challenges [1][2] Group 1: Rating Changes and Impacts - This marks the third downgrade for France in two weeks, indicating significant credit deterioration due to weak fiscal conditions and complex political landscape [1] - Previous downgrades by Fitch and Dominica Bond Rating Agency have already impacted the French financial markets [1] Group 2: Political and Fiscal Challenges - President Macron's early elections led to the ruling party losing its parliamentary majority, hindering deficit reduction plans [1] - New Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has not clearly indicated willingness to compromise on deficit reduction, with opposition parties demanding less stringent measures [1][2] - The Socialist Party holds key seats in parliament, complicating budget consensus efforts [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Lecornu aims for a deficit target of around 4.7% for 2025, with a long-term goal of reducing it to below 3% by 2029, but faces significant political opposition [2] - Rising political instability and social unrest are making it difficult to achieve broad political consensus for substantial deficit reduction [2] - Despite unexpected economic growth in the first half of the year, private sector activity fell to a five-year low in September, indicating weakened economic momentum [2] Group 4: Debt Projections - Scope warns that without further fiscal reforms, government debt as a percentage of GDP could rise to 125% by 2030, becoming one of the fastest-growing among similar countries [3] - This trend poses risks to France's fiscal sustainability and could trigger broader financial repercussions across Europe [3]

Core Points - French President Macron appointed his fifth Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, during his second term after the resignation of Élisabeth Borne following a failed confidence vote [1][3] - Lecornu, who has been a loyal member of Macron's team and served as Minister of Defense since 2022, is seen as capable of dialogue and compromise with various political parties [1][3] - The appointment has faced criticism from both the far-right National Rally and the left-wing France Insoumise, who threaten to propose a vote of no confidence if there are no significant policy changes [1][3] Political Context - Lecornu is tasked with addressing France's budgetary challenges but lacks majority support in parliament, necessitating compromises to maintain governance [3] - The appointment has been met with disappointment from the Socialist Party and the Greens, while Marine Le Pen of the National Rally mocked the decision, suggesting it would lead to further failures for Macron [3][4] - Protests erupted across France, with at least 80 demonstrations reported, leading to clashes with police and numerous arrests, reflecting public discontent with the ruling elite's austerity measures [4][5] Social Unrest - The protests, initiated via social media under the slogan "Let's Block Everything," echo the earlier "Yellow Vests" movement, which began over fuel price hikes and evolved into broader opposition against Macron's economic reforms [4][5] - Demonstrators expressed that the root of France's issues lies with Macron himself, calling for his resignation rather than blaming ministers [4] - Lecornu's immediate challenge includes managing the tense protests and preparing for a nationwide strike scheduled for the 18th, alongside addressing the ongoing debt burden that has plagued previous Prime Ministers [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey will continue to maintain its tight monetary policy to combat inflation and stabilize the economy [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Central Bank emphasizes the importance of a tight monetary policy in addressing ongoing inflationary pressures [1] - The decision to sustain the current policy stance reflects the bank's commitment to achieving price stability [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The Central Bank's actions are part of a broader strategy to stabilize the Turkish economy amid challenging economic conditions [1] - Maintaining a tight policy is seen as crucial for restoring investor confidence and supporting economic growth [1]