Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 30-year yield approaching the 5% mark, which is negatively impacting stock market valuations globally [1][4][5] - A large-scale sell-off of long-term government bonds is spreading from Europe and America to Asia and Oceania, with Japan's 20-year bond yield reaching its highest level since 1999 and Australia's 10-year yield hitting a peak since July [4][5] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a challenging month for long-term government bonds, with a median decline of 2% for bonds with maturities over 10 years in the past decade [5][6][10] Group 2 - The upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, including potential interest rate cuts [4][11][14] - The bond market is currently reflecting concerns over fiscal spending paths, with higher term premiums being factored into bond prices [6][11] - There is speculation that a weak non-farm payroll report could increase the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which may provide relief to the long-term bond market [11][15]

Group 1 - Craig Vardy, head of fixed income at BlackRock Australia, suggests that Australian government bonds may outperform U.S. Treasuries as the market digests fiscal risks affecting long-term bonds [1] - The pricing of long-term U.S. Treasuries will likely include more term premium due to issuance and fiscal risks, while the Reserve Bank of Australia may continue to lower interest rates [1] - The yield on Australian 10-year government bonds is approximately 20 basis points lower than that of U.S. Treasuries, indicating a potential lower bound for the spread [1] Group 2 - If the yield on Australian bonds exceeds that of U.S. Treasuries by about 10 basis points, there may be a resurgence in trading activity [1] - The correlation between Australian 10-year government bonds and U.S. Treasuries is expected to remain high, with no significant decoupling anticipated in the future [1]