此外，由于消费者支出和商业投资数据强于预期，美联储对今年至2028年的经济增长预测略有上调，同 时预计关税上调仍将推高今年的通胀率，并在2026年对通胀造成进一步的上行压力，直到2027年才能达 到2%的目标。 当地时间8日，美国联邦储备委员会公布了9月货币政策会议的会议纪要。 纪要显示，在9月的会议上，与会的美联储委员们一致认为，目前的经济指标显示就业增长有所放缓， 失业率略有上升，劳动力市场出现疲软迹象。与此同时，通胀率仍然略高于2%的目标。几乎所有委员 都同意，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4%至4.25%之间。 ...

当地时间8日，美国联邦储备委员会公布了9月货币政策会议的会议纪要。 纪要显示，在9月的会议上，与会的美联储委员们一致认为，目前的经济指标显示就业增长有所放缓，失业率 略有上升，劳动力市场出现疲软迹象。与此同时，通胀率仍然略高于2%的目标。几乎所有委员都同意，将联 邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4%至4.25%之间。 此外，由于消费者支出和商业投资数据强于预期，美联储对今年至2028年的经济增长预测略有上调，同时预 计关税上调仍将推高今年的通胀率，并在2026年对通胀造成进一步的上行压力，直到2027年才能达到2%的目 标。 （央视记者 曹健） 编辑/胡克青 ...

此外，由于消费者支出和商业投资数据强于预期，美联储对今年至2028年的经济增长预测略有上调，同 时预计关税上调仍将推高今年的通胀率，并在2026年对通胀造成进一步的上行压力，直到2027年才能达 到2%的目标。（央视新闻） 当地时间10月8日，美国联邦储备委员会公布了9月货币政策会议的会议纪要。纪要显示，在9月的会议 上，与会的美联储委员们一致认为，目前的经济指标显示就业增长有所放缓，失业率略有上升，劳动力 市场出现疲软迹象。与此同时，通胀率仍然略高于2%的目标。几乎所有委员都同意，将联邦基金利率 目标区间下调25个基点至4%至4.25%之间。 ...

智利《三点钟报》10月7日报道，根据世界银行10月发布的最新预测，智利2025年 的经济增速将达到2.6%，高于智利政府2.5%的预测，处于智利央行2.25%-2.75%的范围 内；预计2026年经济增速也将达到2.6%。世界银行称，智利经济增长得益于私人消费 和矿产品出口的增强，但在采用新技术方面有所落后；新兴企业进入市场，将对生产 力增长和促进就业作出重要贡献，将进一步激发经济活力。世界银行还在全球需求下 降、大宗商品价格下跌、贸易和市场准入政策不确定性增强以及企业迁移增多的背景 下发布了一系列建议，呼吁各国进行内部改革以吸引投资，为企业创造良好政策和监 管环境，投资物流、能源和数字基础设施以降低进入壁垒，扩大融资渠道以及改善资 本配置等。 （原标题：世界银行上调智利经济增长预测） ...

日本央行行长植田和男此前强调，在决定何时恢复加息时，需要仔细评估美国关税对日本经济和工资前 景的预期影响。Adachi周三表示，基于这种以风险为导向的方式，日本央行可能会暂缓加息，直到明年 3月左右，届时将更清楚地了解关税造成的冲击是否会影响明年的工资谈判。 但他同时指出，不能排除日本央行在10月的下一次会议上加息的可能性，因为第二季度超出预期的经济 增长可能会推高日本央行的增长预测，并使通胀保持在2%的目标附近。 Adachi在采访中表示："再加息25个基点对经济增长几乎没有损害，因为借贷成本仍将低于被认为对经 济呈中性的水平。" 音频由扣子空间生成 日本央行前审议委员Seiji Adachi在接受路透社采访时表示，日本央行很可能会在下一次季度评估中上调 其经济和通胀预测，这可能为10月加息铺平道路。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 市场普遍认为，日本央行在10月29日至30日举行的下一次政策会议上有大约50%的加息可能性，届时日 本央行还将发布新的季度经济增长和通胀预测。 上周，日本央行将利率维持在0.5%不变，但有两名审议委员对此持异议，提议将利率上调至0.75%。此 举推高了日本国债收益率，市场 ...

Market Overview - The bond market has experienced significant fluctuations, particularly in the 10-year yield, following recent Federal Reserve announcements and press conferences [1][3] - Recent data has shown a decline in short-term yields, influenced by the Fed's updated projections indicating potential rate cuts [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut rates and projected two additional cuts for the year, reflecting a somewhat dovish stance [4] - Economic projections from the Fed indicate stronger growth and a lower unemployment rate compared to previous forecasts [4] Inflation and Labor Market - Inflation remains high but is not accelerating, while there are concerns about a potential slowdown in the labor market [5][10] - The Fed's approach appears to be more about risk management rather than initiating a consistent rate-cutting cycle [5][11] Long-term Yield Outlook - There are mixed expectations regarding long-term yields, with some analysts predicting they may not decrease in tandem with short-term rates [8][9] - Concerns about budget issues and elevated inflation may lead to demands for higher yields from investors [9][10] Conclusion - The Fed's current strategy may support stable long-term yields, suggesting a more cautious approach to monetary policy moving forward [11]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The median forecast from the Federal Reserve indicates a further rate cut of 50 basis points by 2025 [1] - There is a divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts, with varying views on the extent and timing of potential reductions [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points is in line with market expectations [1] - The median prediction suggests a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by 2025, with differing opinions among officials on the number and magnitude of future cuts [1] Economic Forecasts - The Federal Reserve maintained its inflation and unemployment rate forecasts for the year, projecting a median inflation rate of 3% and an unemployment rate of 4.5% [1] - Economic growth expectations have been revised upward from 1.4% to 1.6% for the year [1] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the DXY dollar index experienced a sharp decline, while non-USD currencies rose collectively [1] - Spot gold prices surged, surpassing $3700 per ounce, and U.S. stock markets initially rose before retreating, indicating increased bets on at least one more rate cut this year [1]

对于2025年剩余时间政策利率前景，开泰研究中心预料在新政府推出短期经济刺激措施的背景下，泰国 银行货币政策委员会今年可能再次下调政策利率。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 该中心认为，泰国经济仍然面临国际贸易形势、旅游业放缓以及国内政治等因素的直接和间接影响的风 险。 中新社曼谷9月16日电 (记者李映民)泰国开泰研究中心16日发布最新泰国经济展望，将2025年泰国GDP 增长率预测上修至1.8%。 开泰研究中心认为，得益于对美商品尤其是电子产品的出口加快，同时下半年泰国出口增速放缓幅度小 于预期，降低了泰国经济陷入技术性衰退的风险，因此将2025年泰国经济增长预测从此前的1.5%上调 至1.8%。 ...

Group 1 - Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell by 4.6% year-on-year in July, significantly worse than the market expectation of a 1.8% decline, primarily due to a drop in pharmaceutical and other non-electronic product exports [1] - In July, Singapore's non-oil exports to the US, China, and Indonesia decreased, while exports to the EU, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong increased [1] - The Singapore government raised its full-year economic growth forecast from 0.0%-2.0% to 1.5%-2.5% despite concerns over external uncertainties [1] Group 2 - Singapore's Economic Development Board maintained its forecast for non-oil export growth at 1% to 3% for the year, indicating potential weakness in the second half of 2025 after a strong start [1] - Prime Minister Lawrence Wong expressed uncertainty regarding potential future US tariff increases on key industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, highlighting the pressure on small open economies like Singapore [2]

Group 1 - The core agreement between the US and EU involves a 15% tariff rate, increasing the effective tariff on EU goods exported to the US from approximately 10% to about 16% [1] - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for the impact of trade tensions on the Eurozone's GDP from -0.6% to -0.4%, indicating a more positive outlook for the European economy [1][6] - The agreement is expected to positively influence European growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, raising predictions by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1% and 1.2% respectively [1][6] Group 2 - The automotive sector benefits significantly from the agreement, with tariffs on cars reduced from 27.5% to 15%, impacting approximately €60 billion in exports, which constitutes 10% of total EU exports to the US [2] - Germany and Italy are the primary beneficiaries, accounting for 74% of EU automotive exports to the US [2] Group 3 - Pharmaceutical products are temporarily exempt from the new 15% tariff until early 2027 due to the sensitivity of drug pricing, with Ireland, Germany, Belgium, and Italy being the main beneficiaries of this exemption [3] Group 4 - Tariffs on steel and aluminum will remain at 50%, while the EU plans to reduce trade barriers through tariff cuts and quota systems [4] - Steel and aluminum products represent only 4% of the EU's total exports to the US, approximately €23 billion [4] Group 5 - The EU has committed to significantly increasing its procurement of US energy products, aiming for $750 billion over three years, which would triple current imports and account for 60% of EU energy imports [5] - Achieving this procurement goal is considered highly challenging, even with existing plans included [5] Group 6 - The overall economic impact of the tariff agreement is better than expected, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its GDP growth forecasts upward for 2025 and 2026, while also noting a slight increase in inflation expectations for 2026 [6]