1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The silicon iron market has weak supply - demand, neutral inventory, high costs, and profit losses. It is expected that in December, production will decline compared to the same period, and the price will fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5650 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro**: This heating season, energy supply and demand are generally balanced, and there is sufficient resource supply. As of November 26, the coal inventory of national unified - regulated power plants exceeded 230 million tons, with an available days of about 35. On November 24, South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese medium - thick and alloy steel hot - rolled plates for 5 years. From January to October, the steel industry's profit was 10.532 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit year - on - year [7]. - **Overseas**: Federal Reserve Governor Waller said the US job market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December 9 - 10 meeting [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid demand restocking, prices have fallen, and inventory has continued to decline this period. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 320 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 525 yuan/ton. In November, HBIS's tender price for 75B silicon iron was 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous round [7]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the silicon iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - **Strategy**: In terms of new production capacity, there will be no new capacity put into production this year. Silicon iron manufacturers are suffering obvious losses, and it is expected that December production will decline compared to the same period. The country will continue the policy of reducing crude steel production in 2025, and the subsequent crude steel output will continue to decline. Coke profit has limited room for significant improvement, and alloys are likely to remain in a loss state [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of November 28, the position volume of silicon iron futures contracts was 494,700 lots, an increase of 46,100 lots compared to the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract month spread was - 30, a decrease of 4 points. The number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 10,907, an increase of 2631 compared to the previous period. The price of silicon iron in Ningxia was 5180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [13][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 28, the basis of silicon iron was - 290 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 points compared to the previous period [24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply**: This week (November 27), the national average operating rate (capacity utilization) of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 33.41%, a decrease of 0.40% compared to the previous week. The daily average output was 15,320 tons, a decrease of 0.97% (150 tons) compared to the previous week. The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 19,660 tons, an increase of 0.60% compared to the previous week, and the national silicon iron production (weekly supply) was 107,200 tons [28]. - **Inventory**: This week (November 27), the national inventory of 60 independent silicon iron enterprises was 71,830 tons, a decrease of 1.67% (1220 tons) compared to the previous week. Inventory in Inner Mongolia decreased by 2000 tons, while that in Ningxia increased by 400 tons, in Gansu by 150 tons, in Shaanxi by 300 tons, and in Qinghai decreased by 70 tons, and remained unchanged in Sichuan [32]. - **Upstream**: As of November 24, the electricity price in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia for silicon manganese and silicon iron remained unchanged. As of November 27, the domestic market price of medium - grade semi - coke in Inner Mongolia and the tax - included price of semi - coke in Shenmu remained unchanged. The spot production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5444 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase, and in Ningxia was 5625 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase. The spot profit of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 525 yuan/ton, a 11.23% decrease [36][40]. - **Downstream**: This week, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 8100 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to October, the total export volume of Chinese silicon iron (Si > 55%) was 317,337.522 tons, a decrease of 8.85% year - on - year [43].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of ensuring energy supply for heating during winter, with predictions of record-high energy demand this season [1][2]. Demand Side Analysis - The heating season is expected to have a longer duration and higher peak demand due to the late date of the 2026 Spring Festival, leading to an extended period of high energy consumption [1]. - The peak energy demand period is anticipated to last over two months, longer than in typical years [1]. Supply Side Analysis - Energy production capacity and resource reserves are robust, with industrial coal and natural gas production increasing by 1.5% and 6.3% year-on-year, respectively, from January to October [2]. - As of the end of October, the national installed power generation capacity reached 3.75 billion kilowatts, an increase of 5.6 million kilowatts year-on-year [2]. - Nationally, coal reserves at power plants exceeded 230 million tons, providing approximately 35 days of supply, which is at a high level compared to recent years [2]. - The peak transmission capacity across regions reached 15.1 million kilowatts, enhancing the grid's ability to balance supply and demand [2]. - Natural gas storage levels are also relatively high, strengthening emergency supply capabilities [2]. Coordination and Preparedness - The NDRC, in collaboration with various regions and departments, has conducted in-depth analyses of the energy supply and demand situation for the heating season and has organized preparations accordingly [2]. - The NDRC plans to continue strengthening coordination, dynamically tracking supply and demand changes, and implementing measures to increase resource production and supply [2].

Core Insights - The highest electricity load in China during the heating season is expected to reach a historical high, alongside peak daily gas consumption, but overall energy supply and demand remain balanced [1][2] Group 1: Demand Factors - The heating season is anticipated to have a longer duration and higher peak energy demand due to the later date of the 2026 Spring Festival, resulting in an extended peak period of over two months [1] - Meteorological forecasts and the current energy operation status in China suggest that both the highest electricity load and peak daily gas consumption will set new records for the heating season [1] Group 2: Supply Factors - National energy supply is currently sufficient, with industrial coal and natural gas production increasing by 1.5% and 6.3% year-on-year, respectively, from January to October [1] - As of the end of October, the total installed power generation capacity reached 3.75 billion kilowatts, an increase of 560 million kilowatts compared to the same period last year [1] - The government has organized long-term contracts for electricity coal and natural gas to ensure adequate and stable supply during critical periods, with coal reserves at power plants exceeding 230 million tons, providing approximately 35 days of supply [1] Group 3: Infrastructure Development - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the construction of transmission and storage infrastructure to enhance the grid's ability to balance supply and demand, with cross-regional transmission capacity reaching 15.1 million kilowatts, equivalent to 10% of the national peak electricity load [2] - The capacity for natural gas storage and peak shaving has been continuously strengthened, with underground storage facilities currently at relatively high inventory levels [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: On November 27, the main coke contract closed at 1,607 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.03%. The position of the main contract was 33,300 lots, a decrease of 1,839 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,670 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, a 1.35% week - on - week decrease. Currently, the strong supply expectation of coking coal has cooled, weakening the cost support for coke, and the main futures contract is in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to the actual supply of coking coal [6][34]. - **Coking Coal**: On November 27, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,071 points, with an intraday decrease of 0.19%. The position of the main contract was 452,300 lots, a decrease of 24,098 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,280 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. Since the safety production annual assessment and inspection work started in November, the production of coking coal has increased instead of decreasing, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has accelerated. The supply support for coking coal has weakened, and the main futures contract has continued to correct. However, considering that the coal mine production may decline after reaching the annual production target and the Politburo meeting in December, the sustainability of the downward trend of coking coal futures remains to be observed [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that as of November 26, the coal inventory of national unified - regulated power plants exceeded 230 million tons, with an available days of about 35. This heating season, the energy supply and demand are generally balanced, and the resource supply is guaranteed. The NDRC will take multiple measures to increase resource production and supply and ensure people's warm winter [8]. - On November 27, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,580 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade Flat - price) | 1,670 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 6.37% | - 1.18% | - 6.70% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,460 yuan/ton | - 1.35% | - 5.81% | - 9.88% | - 13.61% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,280 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 7.91% | 8.47% | - 5.19% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,580 yuan/ton | - 0.63% | - 4.82% | 6.04% | - 3.07% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,790 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 2.87% | 16.99% | 5.29% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,607.0 yuan/ton | 0.03% | 1,630.0 yuan/ton | 1,589.5 yuan/ton | 15,806 | - 9,815 | 33,313 lots | - 1,839 lots | | Coking Coal | - | 1,071.0 points | - 0.19% | 1,088.0 points | 1,066.5 points | 457,821 | - 250,769 | 452,336 lots | - 24,098 lots | [13] Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory over the years [14][15][19]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal over the years [20][23][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace start - up rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean coal inventory and start - up rate), and coking plant start - up (ton - coke profit and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [27][29][33]. Market Outlook The analysis and judgments on coke and coking coal are the same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the weak and volatile state of coke futures due to the cooling supply expectation of coking coal and the uncertain downward trend of coking coal futures considering year - end production and the Politburo meeting [34].

Core Viewpoint - The overall energy supply and demand during this heating season is balanced, with sufficient resource supply guaranteed [1] Group 1: Demand Analysis - The heating season is expected to have a long duration and high peak energy demand [1] - Since November, energy demand has steadily increased as heating in northern regions has commenced [1] Group 2: Supply Analysis - Current national energy supply is abundant [1] - The first round of cold waves has been successfully managed due to collective efforts [1] Group 3: Future Actions - The National Development and Reform Commission will enhance organization and coordination to monitor and respond to changes in the situation [1] - Measures will be taken to increase resource production and supply, ensure compliance with long-term contracts, and provide peak supply and emergency support [1]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reported that as of November 26, the national regulated power plants have coal reserves exceeding 230 million tons, which is sufficient for approximately 35 days of usage [1] - Peak load capacity for cross-regional power transmission has reached 151 million kilowatts, representing about 10% of the national maximum electricity load [1] - The natural gas storage and peak regulation capacity have been continuously enhanced, with underground gas storage facilities maintaining relatively high inventory levels [1] - Overall, the energy supply and demand during this heating season are balanced, ensuring resource supply security [1]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is taking measures to ensure energy supply during the winter heating season, focusing on energy supply, resource reserves, and emergency dispatching [1] Group 1: Energy Supply and Production - The overall energy supply and demand balance for this winter heating season is expected to be stable, ensuring that residential energy needs are met and prices remain stable [1] - In the first three quarters, the production of raw coal and natural gas from large-scale industries increased by 2.0% and 6.4% year-on-year, respectively [1] - As of the end of September, the total installed power generation capacity reached 3.72 billion kilowatts, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [1] - Since October, the daily average coal transportation by national railways has maintained a high level of 56,000 cars [1] Group 2: Resource Reserves - As of October 27, the national regulated power plants had a coal inventory of 220 million tons, sufficient for over 35 days of use [1] - The underground gas storage facilities have completed their annual injection tasks, achieving full capacity for the winter [1] Group 3: Coordination and Emergency Measures - The NDRC will enhance coordination efforts to ensure the public remains warm during winter, including daily scheduling and weekly consultations to address supply and demand conflicts [1] - There will be a focus on ensuring stable energy production and supply, promoting safe and increased production of energy resources, and maximizing the output of various power generation units [1] - Strict adherence to long-term energy contracts will be enforced to ensure stable and sufficient supply for residential energy needs [1] - Emergency measures will be implemented to manage peak supply and prepare for adverse weather conditions such as low temperatures, rain, snow, and ice [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes that energy supply and demand will be balanced during the heating season, ensuring stable prices and warmth for the public [1] Group 1: Energy Supply and Demand - The NDRC, in collaboration with relevant parties, is focusing on key aspects such as energy supply, resource reserves, and emergency dispatch to prepare for the heating season [1] - Recent temperature drops in northern regions have led to many areas reaching winter standards earlier than usual [1] Group 2: Assurance of Public Welfare - The NDRC assures that the supply of energy for residential use will be guaranteed, stabilizing prices and ensuring that the public can stay warm during winter [1]

Group 1 - The 10th International Conference on Power and Renewable Energy (ICPRE 2025) will be held from September 19 to 22, 2025, in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, attracting nearly 500 experts and scholars from various countries to discuss cutting-edge topics in power generation, transmission, storage, and renewable energy applications [1][2] - The conference emphasizes the profound changes in the power and renewable energy sector due to the "dual carbon" goals and the deep adjustment of the global energy structure, highlighting the importance of technological innovation and system reconstruction [2][3] - The conference serves as an international academic exchange platform, marking its tenth edition, which signifies its ongoing role in gathering global wisdom and promoting the transformation of cutting-edge research results and interdisciplinary collaboration [2] Group 2 - Keynote speeches will be delivered by prominent figures, including John D. McDonald from GE, focusing on grid modernization and the integration of microgrids and distributed generation [7][9] - The conference will address critical directions such as low-carbon energy systems and the challenges of fault detection and equipment compatibility in DC applications, proposing innovative technical solutions [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential recovery in polyester and refining sectors [2][14]. Core Insights - The EIA has revised down its natural gas price forecasts due to rising inventories, with the third-quarter price expected at $3.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and the fourth quarter at $3.99 MMBtu [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas inventories reached 30,060 billion cubic feet, significantly above the five-year average, indicating a clear accumulation trend [6]. - Oil prices have shown an upward trend, with Brent crude futures closing at $70.36 per barrel, reflecting a 3.02% increase week-over-week [18]. - The report anticipates a downward adjustment in oil prices due to widening supply-demand dynamics, although OPEC production cuts and shale oil cost support may maintain prices at mid-high levels [2][18]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Market - The EIA has lowered its natural gas price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2025, with average prices expected at $3.67 and $4.41 per MMBtu for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas production reached 11.68 billion cubic feet per day in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7 billion cubic feet per day [6]. - Solar power is increasingly substituting natural gas in electricity generation, with a projected 3% decline in gas-fired generation in 2025 [11]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $70.36 per barrel, while WTI prices rose to $68.45 per barrel, with weekly average prices showing gains of 2.34% and 2.44%, respectively [18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 426 million barrels, with gasoline inventories decreasing to 229 million barrels [19]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 537, down 2 from the previous week and 47 year-on-year [29]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $13.70 per barrel, reflecting a decline of $0.31 per barrel week-over-week [50]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices adjust downward, with domestic refining product margins still at low levels [48]. Polyester Sector - The report highlights a recovery expectation in the polyester sector, with improved profitability anticipated as supply-demand dynamics stabilize [14]. - Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [14]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the upstream exploration and production sector, particularly offshore oil service firms like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering, which are projected to see performance improvements [14].