四季度EBITDA指引预计为 4.5 亿至 4.8 亿美元，市场预期接近该指引区间上限，因为富国银行认为市 场尚未将 DevEx 支付额的增加纳入考虑。富国银行指出，DevEx 支付额增加的第一个完整季度就使 EBITDA增加了 1800 万美元。在财报电话会议上，富国银行将寻求更多关于在 2026 年艰难增长基数下 保持强劲增长的机会以及开发者对 RDC 公告的反应的见解。 富国银行将 2025 年的各项预测全面上调，2025 年的预订额/EBITDA/自由现金流预计分别增长 3% / 7% / 8%。2026 年的预订额将增长 1%，因为更高的微交易额被更低的广告费用所抵消。2026 年的EBITDA/ 自由现金流将下降 1%，因为考虑了 9 月在 RDC 上宣布的 DevEx 活动的影响，基于 2027 年EBITDA增 长 2%的预期有所提高，将目标价格从153美元适度上调至 155 美元，同时保持 40 倍 2027 年EBITDA的 市盈率不变。 预计Q4的预订额指引为 17.6 亿美元至 17.85 亿美元，同比增长 29%-31%。在经历了平台大规模扩张的 时期后，预订额已恢复到Q1的 25% ...

自由现金流ETF（159201）成分股聚焦自由现金流充裕的行业龙头，行业覆盖家用电器、汽车、有色金 属、电力设备、石油石化等高壁垒领域，行业分散性显著，有效规避单一行业波动风险，是底仓配置的 有利选择。基金管理年费率0.15%，托管年费率0.05%，均为市场最低费率水平。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 10月10日，A股三大指数集体低开，国证自由现金流指数低开后震荡上行，现涨约0.5%。成分股中，国 电南自、联发股份、白银有色涨停，秦安股份、海陆重工、兔宝宝、星湖科技等领涨。相关ETF方面， 同类规模最大的自由现金流ETF（159201）跟随指数上行，成交额率先突破2亿元，交投活跃。 东吴证券认为，传统日历效应下，长假后市场多呈现"涨多跌少"的格局。且今年长假前2个交易日，市 场已出现资金提前博弈反弹的动作，因此后市指数层面需重视量价的配合情况。长假期间，内外部消息 面较积极，尤其是美联储降息预期升温、AI产业趋势催化显著，预计短期内市场风格或偏向具备产业 消息面催化、远期成长属性更强和估值更低的方向。 ...

截至2025年10月10日10:31，国证自由现金流指数上涨0.7%，成分股联发股份、白银有色涨停，国电南 自、秦安股份、星湖科技等跟涨。自由现金流ETF(159201)上涨0.78%， 冲击3连涨流动性方面，自由现 金流ETF盘中换手3.09%，成交1.4亿元。拉长时间看，截至10月9日，自由现金流ETF近1周日均成交 3.82亿元，居可比基金第一。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。自由现金流ETF前一交易日融资净买额达631.11万元，最新融资余额 达3719.87万元。 截至10月9日，自由现金流ETF近6月净值上涨25.65%，排名可比基金第一。从收益能力看，截至2025年 10月9日，自由现金流ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为7%，最长连涨月数为5个月，最长连涨涨幅为 18.05%，涨跌月数比为6/1，上涨月份平均收益率为3.08%，月盈利百分比为85.71%，月盈利概率为 80.15%，历史持有6个月盈利概率为100%。截至2025年10月9日，自由现金流ETF近6个月超越基准年化 收益为8.88%。 费率方面，自由现金流ETF管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%，费率在可比基金中最低。 跟踪 ...

股神巴菲特曾说:"企业的自由现金流是其价值的核心。只有拥有充足自由现金流的企业,才能在满足运营 和投资需求后,为股东带来真正的回报。"自由现金流的理念,始终贯穿于巴菲特的整个投资生涯。 如今A股市场上也有自己的自由现金流指数基金了,此前,方正富邦基金布局了方正富邦中证全指自由现 金流ETF及其联接产品,值得一提的是,方正富邦中证全指自由现金流ETF是首批获批的中证全指自由现 金流ETF产品之一,跟踪指数为中证全指自由现金流指数,有效的弥补了现金流因子在投资工具上的空白, 也为投资者捕捉高现金流优质公司投资机会提供了新选择。 今年以来,A股在科技成长风格带动下一路走高,市场风格集中,指数涨跌波动加剧,也令市场产生"畏高"情 绪,存量经济叠加低利率环境下,高自由现金流企业凭借更好的盈利能力、更高的经营效率、更强的抗风 险能力,被誉为A股投资的"防御利器"。 盈利稳定 分红能力强 自由现金流是指企业在支付了所有运营费用和资本支出后,剩余的可以自由分配给股东或债权人的现金, 是衡量企业财务健康状况和投资价值的重要指标之一。 从编制方法上看,中证全指自由现金流指数选取100只自由现金流率较高的上市公司证券作为指数样本, ...

那么，为什么是现在？小夏看来，核心原因可能指向两个方面：全球经济的巨大不确定性，以及当前资本市场的整体估值水平较高。（金融界20250806） 首先，我们正处在一个宏观环境异常复杂的时期。地缘政治冲突、主要经济体的通胀与利率政策走向、全球供应链的重构……这些因素交织在一起，使得预 测经济走势变得极为困难。在这种"迷雾"中，保持资金的流动性，就意味着保持了选择的灵活性。持有现金，本身就是一种规避不确定性风险的防御性策 略。 大家最近看到了没，咱们的股神巴菲特先生，把长期持有的中国新能源汽车巨头给清仓了。小夏还发现，巴菲特的公司在上半年里，依然在积极地囤积现 金，"股神"的这一系列操作，无疑向市场传递了一些信号。（智通财经20250921） 今天，小夏就想和大家聊聊，在这个充满不确定性的时代，我们该如何理解"现金为王"这句话，以及它对我们现阶段的投资启示。 我们看待股神这笔清仓操作时，或许不必过度解读其针对个别公司的意味。投资组合的调整是再正常不过的事情。更值得我们关注的，是这一行动背后的一 致性：持续的、大规模的现金积累。在小夏看来，这并非一时兴起。 回顾历史，每当巴菲特先生手握大量现金时，往往都预示着他对未来 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent rebalancing of the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index, which involved a high turnover rate of 61% with 39 stocks being added and 39 stocks being removed, driven by weakening free cash flow rates and profit-taking from outperforming stocks [1] - The sectors with the largest weight reductions include agriculture, non-ferrous metals, and retail, while the sectors with the largest weight increases are home appliances, electronics, and building materials, indicating a shift in investment focus [1] - The index exhibits a style characteristic of high dividends, high profitability, low valuation, and low volatility, appealing to investors seeking stable returns [1] Group 2 - The latest scale of the Free Cash Flow ETF Fund (159233) reached 243 million, marking a recent high, and it is positioned as a value-style ETF excluding financials and real estate [2][3] - The fund has shown a 0.63% increase as of September 29, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.45%, ranking 3rd among comparable funds [2] - The fund has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 21 days, totaling 142 million, with a maximum single-day inflow of 19.19 million [4] Group 3 - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception is 3.76%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.24%, indicating a relatively stable performance [5] - The management fee for the fund is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are competitive rates for investors [6] - The fund closely tracks the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index, which consists of 100 stocks with high free cash flow rates, reflecting the overall performance of companies with strong cash flow generation capabilities [7]

Core Viewpoint - Lufthansa plans to lay off 4,000 employees by 2030, marking the largest job cut since the pandemic, aimed at improving profitability [1] Group 1: Layoffs and Financial Goals - The layoffs will primarily occur in Germany and will be achieved through digitalization, automation, and process integration [1] - Lufthansa aims to achieve over €2.5 billion (approximately $2.9 billion) in free cash flow between 2028 and 2030, with an adjusted return on capital of 15% to 20% during this period [1] - The adjusted operating profit margin is expected to remain between 8% and 10% during the same timeframe [1] Group 2: Operational Challenges - The company has faced multiple performance guidance downgrades and has not met its mid-term profit margin targets set in 2021, partly due to several strikes affecting profitability [1] - New labor disputes are emerging, with pilots voting on a potential strike that could disrupt operations and financial performance [1] Group 3: Fleet and Product Development - Ongoing delays in aircraft deliveries are hindering Lufthansa's fleet renewal and transition to more fuel-efficient models [2] - The launch of the new Allegris premium cabin is also facing obstacles, with Boeing 787-9 business class seats awaiting certification [2] - Lufthansa anticipates adding over 230 aircraft by 2030, including 100 long-haul wide-body planes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index and its related ETF reflects mixed results among constituent stocks, with notable gains and losses observed in specific companies, indicating a volatile market environment [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of September 29, 2025, the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index (932365) decreased by 0.01% [1]. - The index's constituent stocks showed varied performance, with Xinyi Silver (000426) leading gains at 9.89%, while Jihong Co. (002803) experienced the largest decline at 9.75% [1]. - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159233) has seen a recent price of 1.11 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 11.41% over the past three months as of September 26, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Fund Liquidity and Scale - The Free Cash Flow ETF recorded a turnover rate of 2.96% during trading, with a total transaction volume of 6.9722 million yuan [1]. - The fund's total scale reached 236 million yuan, marking a recent one-month high [1]. - The number of shares for the Free Cash Flow ETF reached 213 million, also a recent one-month high [1]. Group 3: Fund Inflows and Returns - Over the past 20 days, the Free Cash Flow ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 19.1927 million yuan, totaling 138 million yuan in net inflows [1]. - Since its inception, the Free Cash Flow ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 7.80% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 3 months, with an average monthly return of 4.07% [2]. Group 4: Drawdown and Fees - The maximum drawdown for the Free Cash Flow ETF since inception is 3.76%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.24% [3]. - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF is set at 0.50%, while the custody fee is 0.10% [3]. - The tracking error for the Free Cash Flow ETF over the past month is 0.066%, indicating close tracking of the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index [3]. Group 5: Top Holdings - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index accounted for 57.03% of the index, with notable companies including China National Offshore Oil (600938) and Wuliangye (000858) [3].

Traditional Dividend Assets - White appliances' cash flow ratio decreased to 26% in Q2 2025, primarily due to increased allocation of financial assets impacting cash flow space[11] - The cash flow ratio for liquor reached 55% in Q2 2025, with a reduction in the allocation of financial assets compared to previous quarters[19] Cash Flow Improvement Assets - Black appliances' cash flow ratio was 24% in Q2 2025, with capital expenditure reduced to a historical low of 0.7, indicating a potential shift to a new high expenditure cycle[24] - Lighting equipment's cash flow ratio improved to 31% in Q2 2025, as financial asset allocation decreased, allowing cash flow to return to positive[33] - Beauty care's cash flow ratio was 47% in Q2 2025, driven by reduced capital expenditure, which fell to a historical low of 1.4[39] Stable Cash Flow Assets - Textile manufacturing maintained a cash flow ratio of 21% in Q2 2025, with stable cash flow generation since 2022[47] - The apparel and home textile sector achieved a cash flow ratio of 52% in Q2 2025, entering a phase of stable cash flow generation due to reduced capital expenditure[51] Assets Under Pressure - Traditional Chinese medicine and beverage sectors are under pressure, with profitability not showing signs of improvement, particularly in the context of centralized procurement affecting traditional Chinese medicine[3] - The non-liquor beverage sector, including beer and wine, continues to face challenges, with profitability remaining under pressure[3]

Core Insights - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index has increased by 0.24%, with leading stocks including Ningbo Huaxiang, Wo Le Home, and others [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has risen by 0.27%, with a latest price of 1.11 yuan [1] - The ETF has seen significant liquidity, with a turnover of 4.08% and a transaction volume of 182 million yuan [1] - Over the past 23 trading days, there have been net inflows on 14 days, totaling 189 million yuan [1] - The ETF's share volume has increased by 35.6 million shares over the past three months [1] - The ETF has a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, the lowest among comparable funds [2] - The tracking error for the ETF over the past two months is 0.055%, the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [2] Performance Metrics - Since its inception, the ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 7% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 4 months [1] - The longest cumulative gain has been 16.68%, with a monthly profit percentage of 83.33% and a monthly profit probability of 80.3% [1] - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized return of 8.76% over the last three months [1] Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index account for 57.95% of the index, including SAIC Motor, China National Offshore Oil, and Midea Group [2] - The weightings of the top stocks are as follows: SAIC Motor (10.18%), Midea Group (9.28%), and Gree Electric (7.56%) [4]