苹果产业日报 2025-09-29 般，关注晚富士摘袋进度。操作上，建议短期维持多单。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 85 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 8486 | | 107796 | -5021 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) -1576 | 4442 | | | | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | | 二、新季冷库苹果预计入库量高 | | 3 | | | 三、新季苹果陕西地区果径偏小 | | 4 | | | 四、旧季冷库苹果库存低 | | 新季苹果需求尚可 5 | | | 五、进出口情况 | | 7 | | | 六、替代品情况 | | 8 | | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 8 | | | 免责声明 | | | 10 | 农产品板块研发报告 苹果月报 2025 年 9 月 26 日 新果即将上市 果价或前高后低 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 期货方面，9 月份苹果期货主连价格大部分时间在 8200-8400 元/吨的 价格区间震荡，期间虽然期货价格曾一度跌至 8000 元/吨附近，但是之后 很快被拉回到震荡区间。苹果期货维持在高位震荡的主要原因是今年苹果果 径偏小优果率预计较差且预计收购价格偏高， ...

"多元实体参与期市的实践探索与路径创新"专栏 "金融风"吹拂黄土高原 黄陵县果农刘波（化名）在谈到苹果"保险+期货"时说："我种苹果30年了，家里有20亩果园，全家的生 活就靠果园收入，正常年景下每年有20万元左右的收入，生活还算可以，但在出现极端天气的年份，果 园受灾严重，再加上市场价格不稳定导致苹果卖不上好价钱，家里收入就会下降很多。2021年我突然接 到村里负责人的通知，说有一款'保险+期货'产品，还有政府补贴，我抱着试试的心态为17亩苹果买了 保险。当年受恶劣天气影响，果园受灾，苹果价格还低，一笔笔种植支出账算下来，收入连成本都包不 住。不过，欣喜的是，由于参加了'保险+期货'，发生灾害后，保险公司及时进行了查勘，当年12月我 就收到了赔付，这笔钱给我的生产、生活减轻了负担，对我稳定种植苹果有极大帮助。截至2024年，我 已经连续4年参加'保险+期货'了，今后我还会带动其他果农参加，让我们更有信心将苹果产业发展下 去。" 夏至过后，黄土高原的雨水多了起来，沟壑间漫山遍野的苹果树显得越发葱郁。 穿梭在苹果园中，当看到夏日清晨那缕缕明亮的阳光照在一颗又一颗已经套袋的苹果上时，长江期货延 长营业部总经理汤智 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Weekly: Dual - Festival Stockpiling Progresses, Apple Prices Stable [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Due to the poor quality of early - maturing apples, the price difference between high - quality and low - quality apples is large. The expected poor quality rate of late - maturing Fuji may lead to a relatively high initial purchase price, but the current futures price is not low, so the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The initial purchase price of new - season Fuji will have a significant impact on the futures market [16]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 4.1.1 Spot Analysis - During the week, the stockpiling for the Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals continued. The bag - removing work of late - maturing Fuji was sporadic, and rainfall in the west may delay the large - scale bag - removing. In Shandong, the trading price of Red General apples varied widely due to quality differences, with low - quality apples having a price advantage. In the west, the trading of early - maturing Fuji was ending, and some merchants started to order pre - harvested Fuji at a higher price than last year. The inventory of apples in Shandong decreased significantly, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase was low [7]. - In Shandong Qixia, the price of farmers' 80 and above general apples was 2.1 - 3.0 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples were 3.3 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and 80 first - and second - grade patchy red apples were 3.0 - 4.0 yuan/jin. For early - maturing varieties, the price of 80 and above low - quality Red General apples was 1.6 - 1.8 yuan/jin, and good - quality ones were 2.5 - 2.8 yuan/jin. The mainstream price of large - diameter mid - and late - maturing varieties such as Qin脆 and Mid - Autumn King was 4.8 - 5.2 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the price of 70 and above high - quality early - maturing Fuji was around 3.8 yuan/jin, and the general price was 3.5 - 3.7 yuan/jin. The mainstream price of Mid - Autumn King was 4.2 - 4.3 yuan/jin, Qin脆 was 4.8 - 5.2 yuan/jin, and Yanfu 10 was 4.8 - 5.0 yuan/jin [7]. 4.1.2 Supply Analysis - As of September 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 1.94%, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points in this period and 0.98 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a de - stocking rate of 96.96%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 3.70%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points, and the cold - storage shipment volume was slightly higher than last week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 1.54%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points, and the cold - storage was gradually being cleared [12]. - As of September 17, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 16.32 tons, a decrease of 4.59 tons from last week. The inventory shipment in Shandong slowed down due to the impact of mid - maturing varieties [12]. 4.1.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles increased slightly compared to last week, with an average of 31.8 vehicles per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late - maturing Fuji in baskets was 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes was 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan Gala in baskets was 5.3 - 5.5 yuan/jin, and high - quality ones were 6 - 7 yuan/jin. The price of Hongqian Fuji was 4 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the price of Jingning Red Star in boxes was 5 yuan/jin. With the approaching of the dual festivals, the market was stockpiling, but the overall sales were average, and there was a backlog in the transfer warehouse [15]. - On September 11, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 6.84 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and it was at the middle level in recent years [15]. - From 2024 - 2025, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.3 yuan/jin, the same as last week. The market arrival volume increased this week, the overall sales were good, and the price remained stable [15]. 4.1.4 Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: Due to the poor quality rate of early - maturing apples and the expected poor quality rate of late - maturing Fuji, the initial purchase price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be relatively high. However, considering the current high futures price, the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The initial purchase price of new - season apples will have a significant impact on the market [16]. - Single - side: In the short term, apples are expected to fluctuate due to the expected poor quality rate. The previous high is expected to be the recent high, and there will be significant selling and hedging pressure after the new - season apples are on the market [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. 4.2 Weekly Data Tracking 4.2.1 Apple Supply and Demand - The report presents data on apple exports, planting area, consumption, and production from 2018 - 2023, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [20]. 4.2.2 Inventory and Shipment - The report shows the inventory trends of national, Shandong, and Shaanxi apple cold - storages from 2016/17 - 2024/25, as well as the national cold - storage apple shipment trends during the same period [23][24]. 4.2.3 Spreads and Basis - The report provides data on the current and previous closing prices, price changes of AP01, AP05, AP10, and their spreads, as well as the basis data of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples and different - month contracts from 2019 - 2025 [26]. 4.2.4 Spot and Futures Prices - The report shows the current price, previous - day price, and price changes of the Fuji apple price index, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples, Penglai first - and second - grade 80 apples, and other spot prices, as well as the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits [27].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 08 月 27 日 研究员：刘倩楠 Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 成 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.50 | 109.43 | 0.07 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3. ਰੇਟ | 3.95 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 6.86 | 6.82 | 0.04 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | | | 指标 | रुद्र | 昨收 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - With the decrease in inventory fruits and the quality issues such as coloring of Gala apples recently, the futures price has shown an obvious upward trend. However, it's too early for late Fuji to color, and the current market may be overreacting. The short - term price trend is strong, but one should beware of price fluctuations caused by the inconsistency between expectations and reality [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - **Production Areas**: This week, early - maturing apple varieties are gradually increasing in quantity. In northern Shaanxi, new - season early - maturing Gala apples have uneven quality, with a limited proportion of good - quality and large fruits, and prices are polarized. In Shandong, the old - season Fuji apples at the terminal are being digested slowly, with low cost - effectiveness, and merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing large and good - quality fruits is low. In early - maturing varieties, apples in Qixia are trading steadily with low supply but high merchant enthusiasm [1] - **Sales Areas**: The number of trucks arriving at the three major markets in Guangdong in the morning has increased slightly compared to the previous week. Actual transactions are priced according to quality. The current arrival volume is still low, mainly Fuji apples, with an increase in early - maturing Gala apples. The terminal sales speed of apples is slow, with good - quality fruits being digested at a reasonable speed and poor - quality fruits slowly. There is a slight backlog in transit warehouses [1] Inventory - As of August 20, according to Steel Union data, the national cold - storage inventory is 394,500 tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory removal speed has slowed down slightly. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 7.11%, a decrease of 0.89%, and in Shaanxi is 1.41%, a decrease of 0.43%. According to Zhuochuang data, the national cold - storage inventory is 404,200 tons, a decrease of 57,100 tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 5.26%, a decrease of 0.59%, and in Shaanxi is 2.65%, a decrease of 0.49% [2] Bagging Data - According to Steel Union data, based on bagging conditions, it is estimated that the national apple production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 2.35% to 3.73664 million tons. Among them, Shaanxi's production will increase by 7.57% to 878,840 tons, Shandong's will decrease by 9.89% to 782,370 tons, Gansu's will increase by 2.18% to 379,150 tons, and Henan's will increase by 21.09% to 274,280 tons [3] Market Analysis - The decrease in inventory and quality issues of early - maturing apples have led to an upward trend in the futures price. But the early - stage speculation may be premature, and price fluctuations due to the gap between expectations and reality should be guarded against [3] Futures Price Analysis - From the futures market, the recent trend is strong. If there is strong support at 8150, the pressure range around 8400 can be considered [4] Market Concerns - Cold - storage inventory removal, weather conditions in production areas, and the opening price and transaction volume of early - maturing apples [5] Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - The closing prices of various apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) have declined to varying degrees, with AP10 having the largest decline of 1.65%. Among spot prices, the price of Qixia's first - and second - grade 80 apples has decreased by 1.32%, while the prices of other regions remain unchanged. The futures profit has decreased by 8.94%, and the main basis has increased by 26.55% [7]

Report General Information - Report Title: Apple Industry Daily Report 2025 - 08 - 25 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03109641 - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0018457 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core View - The inventory of old - season apples is low, which still supports the price. However, with the increase in the listing volume of Gala apples, the price increase rhythm is restricted, showing a range - bound market. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to the coloring and listing situation of early - maturing apples [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 8141 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 77,654 lots, with an increase of 2,964 lots [2] - The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 1,128 lots, a decrease of 1,128 lots [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 3.7 yuan/jin, and in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, both unchanged [2] - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commodity) is 4 yuan/jin, both unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] - The average wholesale price of apples is 9.66 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.5 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg [2] - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, a decrease of 6.56 million tons; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.07, a decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.01 [2] - The monthly export volume of apples is 50,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly export value of apples is 63.284 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1.742602 billion US dollars, a decrease of 212.886 million US dollars [2] - The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.4 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.76 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.35 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of bananas is 3.54 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of watermelons is 5.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg [2] - The average daily early - morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 11.4 vehicles, an increase of 3.8 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 22.2 vehicles, an increase of 7.2 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 4.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 19.28%, and that of at - the - money put options is 19.28%, an increase of 1.5% [2] Industry News - On August 25, 2025, the Gala apple trading in the western production area entered the later stage, with poor overall quality and few high - quality goods, and the actual transaction prices were chaotic [2] - In the Shandong production area, the trading of stored Fuji apples was slow, with fruit farmers and inventory merchants eager to sell, and most transactions were made at discounted prices. The early - maturing Luli and Meiba apples were priced according to quality, and the sales volume was average [2] - On Monday, the Apple 2510 contract closed up 0.63. According to Mysteel statistics, the preliminary estimate of the national apple output in the new season is 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] - As of August 20, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main national production areas was 39.45 million tons, a decrease of 6.56 million tons compared with the previous week [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 declined and adjusted, with a weekly drop of 1.15%. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 37.3664 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. As of August 20, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 394,500 tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons from last week. Although the inventory of old apples is low, the arrival of early - maturing apples has impacted the inventory clearance speed, and the sales speed has slightly slowed down. The price of early - maturing apples is chaotic, and the transaction price has slightly declined. Overall, the low inventory of old apples still supports the price, but the increase in the listing volume of Gala apples restricts the price increase, showing a range - bound market. The support level for the Apple 2510 contract is around 7,900 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is around 8,200 yuan/ton [7]. - It is recommended to trade the Apple 2510 contract in the short - term within the range. Future trading should pay attention to the inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new crop production [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 declined and adjusted this week, with a weekly drop of 1.15% [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: New - season apple production is expected to increase. Cold - storage inventory is decreasing, but the arrival of early - maturing apples has affected the clearance speed. The price of early - maturing apples is chaotic and has slightly declined. The low inventory of old apples supports the price, but the increase in Gala apples restricts the price increase, showing a range - bound market. The support and resistance levels for the Apple 2510 contract are 7,900 yuan/ton and 8,200 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Trade the Apple 2510 contract in the short - term within the range. Future trading should focus on the inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new crop production [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 fluctuated and declined, with a weekly drop of 1.15%. As of the end of the week, the net short position of the top 20 in Apple Futures was 0 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [11][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan/jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples of 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan/jin [20]. 3.3. Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of August 20, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 394,500 tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons from last week. The arrival of early - maturing apples has affected the clearance speed. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu have all decreased [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of August 21, the average daily number of trucks arriving at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong in the morning has increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin. As of August 15, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.48 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%; the average wholesale price of apples was 9.66 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits was 6.94 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. In July 2023, China's fresh apple exports were 50,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% [29][33][37][40]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of apples this week is presented in a chart, but no specific data is given [41]. 3.4. Futures - Stock Correlation - Information about the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit is presented in a chart, but no specific data is given [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current low volume of Gala apples on the market and low old - crop inventories boost short - term apple prices, but the price increase may slow down after a large number of Gala apples are listed. The AP2510 contract has entered an adjustment phase, and it is recommended to take profits and exit long positions on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 8,123 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract is 81,632 lots, a decrease of 1,945 lots. The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3,158 lots, an increase of 500 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.69 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.09, a decrease of 0.01; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.22 million tons. The monthly export volume of apples is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export value is 4,330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,955,488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245,562.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.25 yuan/kg, the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg, and the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.58 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 8.4, an increase of 1; the daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 11, an increase of 1; the daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16, an increase of 0.4 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 20.22%, a decrease of 0.19%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 20.23%, a decrease of 0.18% [2] Industry News - On August 14, 2025, paper - bagged Gala apples in the western main producing areas are in the critical color - turning period, with poor color - turning and low purchasing enthusiasm from buyers. In the Shandong producing area, the supply of Luli and Jinduhong apples continues to increase, and buyers pick and choose. The inventory of Fuji apples has chaotic transactions, and the quality of farmers' apples is average, with common price - cutting transactions. According to preliminary estimates by Mysteel based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple output is expected to be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The large - scale listing of Gala apples is slightly delayed, and the low inventory of old - crop apples boosts short - term apple prices. However, when Gala apples are listed later, the price increase rhythm may slow down. Technically, the 2510 contract should pay attention to the pressure at the 8200 yuan/ton integer mark. It is recommended to consider partially taking profits and exiting long positions at high prices and holding them with a light position [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 8127 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 82468 lots (a week - on - week increase of 2083 lots), the number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1613 lots (a week - on - week decrease of 1299 lots) [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week changes [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons), the average wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg), the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 53.39 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 8.22 million tons), the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.09 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.01), the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.02 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.01), and the monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 10000 tons) [2] Industry Situation - The monthly export value of apples is 4330.8 million US dollars, the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars, and the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin (a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin) [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.25 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of bananas is 5.92 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.73 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg), the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 8.4 (a week - on - week increase of 1), at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 1 (a week - on - week increase of 11), and at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16 (a week - on - week increase of 0.4) [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 19.18% (a day - on - day increase of 0.04%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 19.19% (a day - on - day increase of 0.06%) [2] Industry News - On August 11, 2025, after rainfall in the western production areas such as Weinan, the coloring conditions for apples were good. It is expected that a large number of red paper - bagged Gala apples will appear in four or five days. Currently, most purchasers are waiting and watching, and the price is slightly weak. The low - priced bare - skinned Gala apples are selling well, priced according to quality. In the Shandong production area, the trading of inventory apples is light, the trading of early - maturing bare - skinned Luli apples is smooth, and the prices are temporarily stable. On Monday, the 2510 contract of apples closed up 1.31%. According to the preliminary estimate of the bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple output is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 6, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main national production areas is 53.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.02 million tons. The sales speed has slowed down slightly compared with last week and is basically the same as that of last year [2] View Summary - The inventory of old - crop apples is low, and the sales pressure is not large. The trading is priced according to quality, and the overall sales speed has slowed down. After rainfall in the western production areas such as Weinan, the coloring conditions for apples are good, and it is expected that a large number of red paper - bagged Gala apples will appear in four or five days. On August 5, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued an announcement on soliciting opinions on amending the "Detailed Rules for Fresh Apple Futures of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange", which may revise aspects such as delivery units, alternative delivery items, and packaging [2]