"抢出口/转口效应"所带来的需求前置有关。展望而言，短期伴随基数 的显著回落，9 月出口同比增速有望出现边际改善。统计局也发布了 8 月通胀数据。8 月 CPI 环比持平，同比下降 0.4%。展望而言，猪肉价格 在供给端较为充足的背景下将延续弱势，叠加能源价格拖累，短期 CPI 同比增速或将继续承压。PPI 方面，8 月 PPI 环比由下降转为持平，同 比降幅收窄，后者是今年 3 月以来的首次收窄，与去年同期基数走低及 "反内卷"等举措有关。展望来看，在低基数影响下，9 月 PPI 同比增 速有望延续降幅收窄态势。 风险提示：行业催化不及预期、外部环境不确定性风险、地缘政治风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 8 投资策略 +-[Table_MainInfo] PPI 实现同比降幅收窄，关注主线题材延续性 ――A 股市场投资策略周报 | 分析师： 宋亦威 | | | SAC NO： | S1150514080001 | | 2025 | 年 | 9 | 月 | 11 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the collaborative actions taken to stabilize the capital market amidst complex risks, enhancing market resilience and improving expectations [1][2] - The A-share market's total market value has steadily increased, surpassing 100 trillion yuan by the end of June, with significant trading volumes and a return to key index levels [2][4] - The improvement in the internal quality and allocation efficiency of the capital market is highlighted, with policies reflecting a renewed strategic focus on the capital market's role [2][3] Group 2 - A notable increase in cash dividends from A-share listed companies is reported, with a total of 2.4 trillion yuan expected for 2024, marking a 9% increase from 2023 [4] - The inflow of medium- and long-term funds into the A-share market has been robust, with over 200 billion yuan net purchases recorded this year [4][5] - The regulatory focus will shift towards nurturing long-term capital and enhancing the policy framework to support sustained investment in the capital market [5][7] Group 3 - Foreign investment in China's capital market is significant, with a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year, indicating a growing global interest [6] - Major financial institutions have raised their expectations for the Chinese capital market, citing attractive valuations and improving economic fundamentals [6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to advance a high-level institutional opening, aiming to create a more inclusive capital market ecosystem [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the positive momentum in China's capital market, driven by coordinated regulatory efforts and macroeconomic stability [1][2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen from 2900 points to 3600 points since September last year, with the ChiNext Index showing a monthly increase of over 8% in July, leading global markets [1] - The central government's recent meeting highlighted the need to consolidate the recovery and positive trend of the capital market [1] Group 2 - China's GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year reflects effective macroeconomic policies and the resilience of the economy, with significant structural optimization in emerging industries [2] - The collaboration of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies has provided a solid foundation for economic stability, with foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds exceeding $10 billion in the first half of the year [2] - The regulatory upgrades have activated asset valuation recovery, with reforms enhancing market stability and encouraging long-term capital inflow [3] Group 3 - The articles indicate that the capital market's upward trend is supported by the advantages of the socialist system, a large-scale market, a complete industrial system, and abundant talent resources [3] - The focus on improving the economic foundation, optimizing the policy environment, and enhancing market systems is crucial for sustaining a healthy capital market that contributes to high-quality economic development [3]

Group 1: Urban Renewal - The central government emphasizes high-quality urban renewal as a key strategy for optimizing urban structure and enhancing quality of life [3] - Urbanization in China is transitioning from rapid growth to stable development, with urbanization rate projected to rise from 53.1% in 2012 to 67% by 2024, increasing urban population from 720 million to 940 million [2] - Urban renewal is seen as a turning point for city development, focusing on improving existing urban areas rather than expanding them [3] Group 2: Local Government Debt Management - As of June 2023, local governments have issued a total of 3.8 trillion yuan in new replacement bonds, reducing average interest costs by over 2.5 percentage points [4] - The central government has implemented a series of measures to manage local government debt, effectively mitigating risks associated with hidden debts [4] - The central political bureau meeting calls for proactive and prudent measures to resolve local government debt risks and prohibits the creation of new hidden debts [4][5] Group 3: Capital Market Stability - The central political bureau meeting highlights the need to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, amidst a complex external environment [6] - The meeting emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the capital market, which has shown resilience and improved expectations this year [6][7] - Future reforms, including the new "National Nine Articles," aim to enhance market stability and improve the attractiveness of listed companies, contributing to a healthier market ecosystem [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meeting emphasizes enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of China's capital market to consolidate its recovery and positive momentum [1][3] - Improving investment expectations is crucial for increasing market attractiveness, focusing on encouraging domestic and foreign capital to enter the market and enhancing the investment value of listed companies [1][2] - The meeting highlights the importance of a multi-layered capital market system to meet the diverse financing needs of different types and sizes of enterprises, ensuring support for various industries and protecting the rights of small investors [2][4] Group 2 - The capital market has shown significant improvement since the second quarter, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from a low of 3040 points to over 3600 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing from 1756 points to over 2400 points, indicating a recovery in investor confidence [3][4] - Measures to consolidate the positive momentum of the capital market include expanding capital market adjustment tools, creating new financial instruments, and enhancing the liquidity support for central financial institutions [4] - The overall strategy aims to build a modern financial system that efficiently allocates resources, serves various entities, and balances risk and return through institutional innovation and market openness [4]

Group 1 - The three major indices showed mixed performance on August 4, with the Securities ETF (159841) declining by 0.28% and a trading volume exceeding 37 million yuan, indicating active trading with a premium trading occurrence [1] - As of August 1, the Securities ETF (159841) experienced a net inflow of 121 million yuan over four out of five trading days, with a total circulating share of 5.264 billion and a market size of 5.676 billion yuan, making it the largest ETF in the Shenzhen and Shanghai markets [1] - The global first RWA registration platform is set to launch on August 7, initiated by the Hong Kong Web 3.0 Standardization Association, aiming to facilitate the entire process of RWA asset tokenization [1] Group 2 - The private placement market is thriving, benefiting brokerage firms' investment banking businesses, with 78 A-share companies completing private placements this year, raising a total of 66.4274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 668.74% [2] - Brokerages, as the main underwriters in the private placement market, are expected to see significant revenue growth due to the expansion of underwriting scale and can strategically allocate capital in undervalued assets [2] - The political bureau meeting emphasized consolidating the positive momentum of the capital market, which is expected to stabilize market sentiment and attract incremental policies and funds into the A-share market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China to enhance its macroeconomic policies to address current economic challenges and ensure a stable recovery in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [1]. - China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring that these policies are effectively executed to maximize their impact [1][2]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The article calls for the effective use of proactive fiscal policies, including the acceleration of issuing and utilizing ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2]. - It stresses the need for increased fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments to boost demand and improve market expectations through timely issuance of bonds and efficient approval processes [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - Monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately to promote a decline in the overall financing costs for society while maintaining ample liquidity [2]. - The meeting emphasized the use of structural monetary policy tools to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [2]. Group 4: Consumer Demand and Supply Quality - The focus should be on promoting consumption to effectively unleash domestic demand potential, including the continuation of the "old-for-new" consumption subsidy program with a budget of 138 billion yuan [3]. - There is a need to improve supply quality through deepening reforms, fostering new competitive industries, and integrating technological and industrial innovations [3]. Group 5: Capital Market - The capital market's role as an economic barometer is increasing, and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusiveness is crucial for stabilizing economic recovery [4]. - The article suggests that a stable capital market and asset prices are essential foundations for consolidating the economic recovery trend [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 30, the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed performance, with IF up 0.04%, IH up 0.32%, IC down 0.43%, and IM down 0.44%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [1][2]. - The trends of IF and IH have a strength of 1, while those of IC and IM also have a strength of 1. The取值 range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval [6]. - The market was affected by multiple factors, including the decisions of the Politburo meeting, the党外人士座谈会, and Powell's remarks on interest rates. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.62%. A - shares had a full - day trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan, up from 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing prices of IF2508, IF2509, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4147, 4136.4, 4105.2, and 4074.4 respectively, with increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.08%, and 0.13%. The trading volumes were 35444, 81931, 15870, and 4786 respectively, with increases of 11217, 23415, 5044, and 692. The positions were 46692, 162604, 54981, and 10426 respectively, with increases of 4803, 9027, 435, and 918. The basis was - 4.24, - 14.84, - 46.04, and - 76.84 respectively [1]. - **IH Series**: The closing prices of IH2508, IH2509, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2821.4, 2820, 2820.2, and 2821.6 respectively, with increases of 0.32%, 0.28%, 0.23%, and 0.26%. The trading volumes were 16238, 46511, 6381, and 1819 respectively, with increases of 5126, 15965, 2807, and 904. The positions were 20777, 64619, 15228, and 2657 respectively, with increases of 2883, 4265, 841, and 570. The basis was 2.05, 0.65, 0.85, and 2.25 respectively [1]. - **IC Series**: The closing prices of IC2508, IC2509, IC2512, and IC2603 were 6271.2, 6215.4, 6079, and 5955.2 respectively, with decreases of 0.43%, 0.42%, 0.36%, and 0.31%. The trading volumes were 26089, 58280, 15042, and 5843 respectively, with increases of 3022, 11610, 1455, and 1074. The positions were 51234, 108507, 57093, and 13089 respectively, with changes of + 2292, + 3193, - 964, and + 621. The basis was - 43.49, - 99.29, - 235.69, and - 359.49 respectively [1]. - **IM Series**: The closing prices of IM2508, IM2509, IM2512, and IM2603 were 6675.6, 6604.2, 6415.2, and 6249.8 respectively, with decreases of 0.44%, 0.43%, 0.43%, and 0.43%. The trading volumes were 46466, 144840, 31250, and 8723 respectively, with increases of 7945, 28437, 4954, and 1394. The positions were 64269, 185002, 78570, and 18656 respectively, with increases of 4761, 79688, 75, and 1303. The basis was - 42.88, - 114.28, - 303.28, and - 468.68 respectively [1]. 2. Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 40368 lots, IH by 24802 lots, IC by 17161 lots, and IM by 42730 lots [2]. - **Position**: The total positions of IF increased by 15183 lots, IH by 8559 lots, IC by 5142 lots, and IM by 16585 lots [2]. 3. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Series**: For IF2508, long - order increase was 5738, and short - order increase was 4801; for IF2509, long - order increase was 7911, and short - order increase was 6415; for IF2512, long - order increase was 1200, and short - order increase was 313; for IF2603, long - order increase was 669, and short - order increase was 781 [5]. - **IH Series**: For IH2508, long - order increase was 2480, and short - order increase was 2467; for IH2509, long - order increase was 4125, and short - order increase was 3941; for IH2512, long - order increase was 962, and short - order increase was 919; for IH2603, data was not announced [5]. - **IC Series**: For IC2508, long - order increase was 2097, and short - order increase was 2029; for IC2509, long - order increase was 2973, and short - order increase was 2564; for IC2512, long - order increase was - 376, and short - order increase was - 849; for IC2603, long - order increase was 795, and short - order increase was 456 [5]. - **IM Series**: For IM2508, long - order increase was 4501; for IM2509, long - order increase was 9904, and short - order increase was 7544; for IM2512, long - order increase was 693, and short - order increase was 1559; for IM2603, data was not announced [5]. 4. Important Driving Factors - **Policy - related**: The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting domestic and international dual - circulation, and achieving the goals of economic and social development for the year. The党外人士座谈会 also focused on promoting economic development in the second half of the year [6][7]. - **International Factor**: Powell did not give guidance on a September interest - rate cut, stating that it was too early to determine, and that the current interest - rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation. He also said the job market was not weakening [7].

1. Market Index Performance - **Global Stock Indexes**: On July 31, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 44,461.28, down 0.385% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index closed at 21,129.67, up 0.149%; the S&P 500 closed at 6,362.90, down 0.125%; the Hang Seng Index closed at 25,176.93, down 1.362% [2]. - **SHIBOR and Dollar Index**: The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32, down 3.587% from the previous day; the dollar index was 99.79, down 0.179%. The dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: COMEX gold rose 0.078% to 3,327.90; COMEX silver fell 3.152% to 37.18; LME copper fell 0.745% to 9,730.00; NYMEX crude oil rose 1.516% to 70.30. Domestic metals, chemicals, and agricultural products also showed various price changes [2][3][5]. 2. Macro - economic News - **Policy Decisions**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan. The government will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, support key areas, and resolve local government debt risks [8]. - **Subsidy Policy**: The state plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies in 2025, and localities will open application channels by August 31 [8]. - **Industry Policies**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will control new capacity in copper smelting and alumina, and promote the exit of backward capacity in some sectors [10]. 3. Morning Views on Major Commodities 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is expected to have a bullish and volatile short - term trend but will maintain a downward long - term trend, with a current pattern of weak supply and demand [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market has light trading volume and stable basis. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are also rising [12]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market is in an internal - strong and external - weak situation. With the arrival of processed sugar in August, the spot market may face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Corn**: The corn market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to operate within the range of 2,300 - 2,320 yuan/ton [12]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are both weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, with attention to the 13,350 - yuan support level [13]. - **Hogs**: The hog market is in a state of oversupply. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - **Eggs**: After this round of price adjustment, the egg spot price is expected to be supported by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. The futures market is adjusting the basis by following the spot price decline [14]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to fluctuate slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to operate within the range of 1,720 - 1,800 yuan/ton [16][18]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper prices may face pressure if the 50% tariff is imposed. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina are in a surplus situation. The futures price may be strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant about macro - sentiment [18]. - **Steel Products**: The spot market for steel products has weak trading volume. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be supported at certain levels [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloys are currently driven by macro - expectations. It is recommended to operate cautiously [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke markets are fluctuating and under pressure. The fifth round of coke price increase has started, but steel mills have not responded [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and short on rallies [19]. 3.4 Options and Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On July 30, A - share indexes showed mixed performance. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options changed, and the implied volatility of some options decreased. Trend investors can focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles [19][21].

Economic Outlook - The economic operation still faces significant risks and challenges, emphasizing the need for vigilance and bottom-line thinking[1] - The GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 reached 5.3%, requiring only a 4.7% growth in the second half to achieve the annual target of around 5%[1] - The third quarter is identified as a crucial observation window for economic performance[1] Policy Direction - Macro policies are expected to continue to exert force and may intensify around September, with a focus on preparing for the upcoming Central Committee meeting[1] - Monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with structural tools introduced to support small and micro enterprises[2] - Fiscal policy is set to be "more proactive," with over half of the special bonds yet to be issued, as of June 30, 2025, the issuance progress was only 49%[2] Consumption and Industry - The potential for domestic demand needs to be released, with service consumption being key in the second half of the year[2] - The first two batches of funds for replacing old consumer goods totaled 162 billion yuan, with the third batch of 69 billion yuan already allocated[2] - The focus will be on emerging industries and supply-demand rebalancing, particularly in sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military aviation[2] Capital Market - The capital market is showing signs of stabilization and improvement, with a "slow bull" market pattern confirmed[7] - A-shares have demonstrated resilience, supported by state intervention and external factors such as a weak dollar and supply-demand rebalancing[7] - The market is expected to consolidate in August, with more favorable conditions anticipated around September following tariff and earnings reports[7]