节日期间需求较弱，港口煤价略有上涨 2025 年 10 月 12 日 增持（维持） 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（9 月 26 日至 10 月 10 日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨 8 元/吨， 报收 709 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区环渤海四港区日均调入量 176.73 万吨，环 比上周增加 0.86 万吨，增幅 0.46%。本周产地供应较为稳定，港口供应 量有所增加。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 138.36 万吨，环比上周下降 9.3 万吨，降幅 4.7%；日均锚地船舶共 78 艘，环比上周下降 9 艘，降幅 10.82%。 库存端，环渤海四港区库存端 2549.50 万吨，环比上周增加 5.6 万吨，增 幅 0.23% 。港口本周整体调出量下滑，库存绝对值有所上行，主要由于 国庆假期淡季需求较弱导致。 我们分析认为：目前港口库存在供给稳定且需求较弱下去化缓慢，甚至 有累库现象，短期来看煤价预计维持震荡态势，预计后续 10 月中旬后 伴随北方开始取暖，需求或有一定好转，煤价或有上行空间。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The port coal price has increased due to pre-holiday stockpiling, with the current price at 704 RMB/ton, up by 24 RMB/ton week-on-week [1] - Supply from the four ports in the Bohai Rim has decreased, with an average daily inflow of 1.4861 million tons, down by 127,400 tons or 7.90% from the previous week [1] - Demand has also weakened, with a daily outflow of 1.5383 million tons, down by 45,100 tons or 2.85% week-on-week [1] - The total inventory in the Bohai Rim ports has decreased to 20.61 million tons, down by 207,700 tons or 9.16% from the previous week [1] - The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a volatile trend in the short term due to seasonal demand fluctuations and decreasing temperatures [1] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,820.09 points, down 1.05% week-on-week, while the coal sector index rose by 2.16% to 2,735.68 points [10] - The total transaction amount for the coal sector reached 73.185 billion RMB, an increase of 91.54% from the previous week [10] Production and Pricing - Domestic coal prices have shown stability with slight increases; for instance, the price of 5500 kcal coal in Datong rose by 37 RMB/ton to 597 RMB/ton [18] - The international coal price index has shown a slight decline, with the Newcastle coal price down by 6.67 USD/ton to 101.11 USD/ton [20] Inventory and Shipping - The average daily shipping volume in the Bohai Rim has decreased, with a total inventory reduction indicating a tightening supply situation [28][31] - Domestic shipping costs have increased by 19.91%, now averaging 35.53 RMB/ton [33] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as potential investment opportunities due to their low valuations and market elasticity [35]

东吴证券近日发布煤炭开采行业跟踪周报：本周（9月8日至9月12日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨1 元/吨，报收680元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量161.36万吨，环比上周下降20.79万 吨，降幅11.41%。本周产地供应较为稳定，港口供应量有所下降。需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调 出量158.34万吨，环比上周下降25.59万吨，降幅13.91%；日均锚地船舶共71艘，环比上周下降7艘，降 幅8.82%。 我们分析认为：目前伴随煤炭行业逐步进入淡季，全国气温明显下降，居民用电需求逐步减弱，供 强需弱下库存去化短期或面临一定压力，预计短期煤价维持震荡态势。 估值与建议： 以下为研究报告摘要： 行业近况 本周（9月8日至9月12日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨1元/吨，报收680元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量161.36万吨，环比上周下降20.79万吨，降幅11.41%。本周 产地供应较为稳定，港口供应量有所下降。需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量158.34万吨，环比上 周下降25.59万吨，降幅13.91%；日均锚地船舶共71艘，环比上周下降7艘，降幅8.82%。库存端，环渤 海四港区 ...

行业近况 本周（9月8日至9月12日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨1元/吨，报收680元/吨。 东吴证券近日发布煤炭开采行业跟踪周报：本周（9月8日至9月12日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨1元/ 吨，报收680元/吨，供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量161.36万吨，环比上周下降20.79万吨，降幅 11.41%。 东吴证券近日发布煤炭开采行业跟踪周报：本周（9月8日至9月12日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨1元/ 吨，报收680元/吨。供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量161.36万吨，环比上周下降20.79万吨，降幅 11.41%。本周产地供应较为稳定，港口供应量有所下降。需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量158.34 万吨，环比上周下降25.59万吨，降幅13.91%；日均锚地船舶共71艘，环比上周下降7艘，降幅8.82%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 估值与建议： 仍旧关注保险资金增量；保费收入维持正增长，且向头部保险集中。固收类资产荒依旧，叠加红利资产 已经高位，所以关注权益配置变化，预期更青睐于资源股。 核心推荐动力煤弹性标的。弹性依次产地自西向东标的，且低估值标的：建议关注昊华能源，广汇能 源。 风险提示：下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is entering the off-season, with port coal prices experiencing fluctuations. As of September 12, the spot price of thermal coal at ports increased by 1 CNY/ton to 680 CNY/ton. Supply from the four ports in the Bohai Rim averaged 1.6136 million tons per day, a decrease of 207,900 tons week-on-week, representing an 11.41% decline. Demand also saw a reduction, with daily outflows dropping by 25.59% to 1.5834 million tons. The inventory at the four ports decreased slightly to 22.687 million tons, down 0.10% from the previous week. The report suggests that as the industry enters the off-season, with a notable drop in temperatures and residential electricity demand, there may be short-term pressure on inventory depletion, leading to a forecast of fluctuating coal prices in the near term [1][2][5] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,870.60 points, up 1.14% week-on-week. The coal sector index closed at 2,642.87 points, down 0.14% with a trading volume of 38.209 billion CNY, a decrease of 13.07% [10] 2. Price Movements - The price of thermal coal at production sites showed mixed trends. As of September 12, the price for 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong increased by 6 CNY/ton to 560 CNY/ton, while the price for 4000 kcal thermal coal in Inner Mongolia decreased by 10 CNY/ton to 370 CNY/ton. The port price for 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao rose by 1 CNY/ton to 680 CNY/ton [15][17] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily coal inflow at the four Bohai Rim ports was 1.6136 million tons, down 11.41% week-on-week. The average daily outflow was 1.5834 million tons, down 13.91%. The number of anchored vessels decreased to 71, a drop of 8.82% [25][28] 4. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests focusing on resource stocks. It recommends specific thermal coal stocks, including Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy, which are considered undervalued [2][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has slightly declined due to weakening demand as temperatures drop, with the current port price for thermal coal at 679 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [1] - Supply remains stable, with an average daily inflow of 1.8214 million tons to the four ports in the Bohai Rim, a decrease of 0.0084 million tons or 0.46% from the previous week [1] - Daily outflow from the same ports is 1.8393 million tons, down 0.0574 million tons or 3.03% week-on-week, indicating a slight reduction in demand [1] - The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports is 22.71 million tons, down 0.37 million tons or 1.60% from the previous week, reflecting a slight decrease in overall inventory levels [1] - The report suggests that as the peak season for coal approaches its end, the combination of strong supply and weak demand may put pressure on inventory depletion in the short term, with coal prices expected to remain volatile [1] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,812.51 points, down 63.02 points or 1.63% week-on-week, with the coal sector index at 2,634.16 points, down 9.33 points or 0.35% [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown mixed trends, with some regions experiencing price increases while port prices have decreased [16][18] 3. International Prices - International thermal coal prices have shown a slight decline, with the Newcastle coal price index down 0.87 USD/ton to 109.30 USD/ton [18] 4. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily inflow and outflow of coal at the Bohai Rim ports have both decreased, indicating a slowdown in coal movement [27][30] - The average shipping cost on domestic routes has decreased by 3.9 RMB/ton to 29.81 RMB/ton, a drop of 11.57% [32] 5. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets in the thermal coal sector [35]

Group 1 - The market has experienced increased volatility since September, with popular sectors like artificial intelligence and TMT undergoing corrections, while resource stocks have continued to strengthen [1] - The mining ETF (159690) opened higher on September 3, rising by 0.53% with a turnover rate exceeding 6%, indicating active trading [2] - Recent data shows that the mining ETF has seen a net inflow of nearly 21 million yuan over the past three trading days [2] Group 2 - The precious metals sector has achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit for two consecutive quarters, indicating strong fundamental support [2] - The energy metals industry has shown signs of bottom reversal, with improvements in revenue growth, net profit growth, and ROE over the last two quarters [2] - Despite overall pressure on the upstream resource sector in the first half of 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to exhibit strong anti-cyclical capabilities and growth resilience due to structural opportunities [3] Group 3 - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to a general increase in precious metal prices [3] - The mining ETF closely tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme Index, providing exposure to key metal resources such as copper, gold, rare earths, aluminum, and lithium [3] - Resource stocks are currently among the best-matched sectors in terms of fundamentals and valuations, with price increases reflecting earnings elasticity due to rising prices [6]

Core Insights - The spot price of thermal coal at ports decreased by 14 CNY/ton this week, closing at 690 CNY/ton [2] - The average daily inflow of coal to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region increased by 10.25 million tons, a rise of 5.93% compared to last week [2] - The average daily outflow of coal from the same ports rose by 10.76 million tons, marking a 6.01% increase from the previous week [2] - The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 18.40 million tons, reflecting a decline of 0.79% [2] Supply Side - The average daily inflow of coal to the Bohai Rim ports was 182.99 million tons, indicating stable supply from production areas [2] - Port supply volume showed a slight increase this week [2] Demand Side - The average daily outflow of coal from the Bohai Rim ports reached 189.67 million tons, with a notable increase in the number of anchored vessels to 106, up by 12.71 vessels or 13.63% [2] - The demand appears to be weakening as the peak season approaches its end, leading to a potential pressure on inventory depletion [2] Inventory Status - The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports stands at 2308 million tons, which is slightly down from last week [2] - The overall inventory value at the ports has decreased, but the drop in coal prices is attributed to the weakening downstream demand as the peak season concludes [2] Market Outlook - The coal industry is entering the end of the peak season, with residential electricity demand gradually weakening [2] - Short-term coal prices are expected to remain volatile due to the strong supply and weak demand dynamics [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is entering the end of its peak season, leading to a slight decline in coal prices. The current price for port thermal coal is 690 CNY/ton, down 14 CNY/ton week-on-week. Supply remains stable while demand shows signs of weakness, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory levels [1][10] - The report suggests that the short-term outlook for coal prices will remain volatile due to the weakening demand from residential electricity consumption as the peak season concludes [1][37] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,857.93 points, down 0.66% week-on-week. The coal sector index closed at 2,626.05 points, down 4.15% [10] - The trading volume for the coal sector increased by 16.26% to 58.263 billion CNY [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown a mixed trend, with the price for 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong decreasing by 22 CNY/ton to 544 CNY/ton, while prices in Inner Mongolia remained stable at 380 CNY/ton [16] - The port thermal coal price at Qinhuangdao decreased by 14 CNY/ton to 690 CNY/ton [16] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 5.93% to 1.8299 million tons, while the outflow also increased by 6.01% to 1.8967 million tons [29][32] - The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 0.79% to 23.08 million tons [32] 4. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the influx of insurance funds and suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets in the thermal coal sector [2][37]

Industry Overview - The spot price of thermal coal at ports increased by 16 CNY/ton week-on-week, closing at 698 CNY/ton [2][3] - The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region was 1.65 million tons, an increase of 30.6 thousand tons or 1.89% compared to the previous week [2][3] - Supply from production areas remained stable, with a slight increase in port supply [2] Demand Dynamics - The average daily outflow from the four ports in the Bohai Rim region was 1.7704 million tons, up by 175.3 thousand tons or 10.99% from the previous week [2][3] - The number of anchored vessels increased to 93, which is an increase of 24 vessels or 35% compared to the previous week [2] Inventory Status - The inventory at the four ports in the Bohai Rim region was 23.685 million tons, a decrease of 974 thousand tons or 3.95% from the previous week [2] - The significant decline in overall inventory is attributed to sustained high temperatures, leading to elevated daily consumption by residents and power plants [2] Market Outlook - The coal industry has entered a peak season due to ongoing high temperatures, with continuous growth in residential and industrial electricity consumption [2] - With stable supply and rising demand, there is potential for further upward movement in coal prices [2] Valuation and Recommendations - The focus remains on the incremental insurance funds, with premium income maintaining positive growth concentrated among leading insurers [3] - There is an ongoing shortage of fixed-income assets, and resource stocks are expected to be favored in equity allocations [3] - Core recommendations include elastic thermal coal stocks, particularly those with low valuations such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy [3]