品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铝 2749.0 2807.5 2746.0 2782.5 1.13% 【铝市场消息速递】 北京时间10月10日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货价格高位弱势震荡，今日开盘报2786美元/吨，现报 每吨2778.5美元/吨，跌幅0.14%，盘中最高触及2788美元/吨，最低下探2777.5美元/吨。 更新时间： LME铝期货行情回顾： 10月9日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货行情 10月9日，上期所铝期货仓单58894吨，环比上个交易日减少227吨。 10月9日，电解铝现货沪伦比值为7.56，进口盈亏：-2375.01元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-1686.9元/ 吨。 10月9日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铝注册仓单403475吨。注销仓单105125吨，减少2500吨。铝库存 508600吨，增加2200吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The Fed's monetary policy adjustments and industry - specific factors jointly affect the prices of various non - ferrous metals. Overall, most non - ferrous metals show different trends in price, inventory, and market sentiment, with short - term price trends varying from metal to metal [2][4][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - The Fed's interest rate cut and the rate dot - plot's indication of future cuts led to copper price adjustments. LME copper closed down 1.41% to $9974/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79880 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic downstream procurement sentiment was weak. Short - term copper prices may turn to a volatile trend, with the SHFE copper main contract running between 79200 - 80800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9880 - 10100 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices generally declined. LME aluminum closed down 0.83% to $2689/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20750 yuan/ton. Domestic inventories increased, and the market transaction was not ideal. With downstream entering the traditional peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be strongly supported. The domestic main contract is expected to run between 20700 - 21000 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M between 2660 - 2720 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Lead concentrate raw materials are in short supply, and the downstream battery inventory is decreasing. Although there was some emotional disturbance in the non - ferrous metal sector before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the overall sentiment is still positive, and the improved industry data supports the upward breakthrough of lead prices [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Zinc concentrate inventory is rising, and processing fees are differentiated. The import window is closed, and the zinc ore surplus is alleviated. Although the SHFE zinc increase is limited, if the zinc ingot export window opens and zinc ore imports are restricted, the domestic zinc price may rise with the sector [6]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile. The supply of tin is significantly reduced due to slow resumption of production in Myanmar and smelter maintenance. Although the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors have weak demand, the demand has marginally improved with the arrival of the peak season, so the price is expected to be strong [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the high inventory of refined nickel drags down the nickel price, but in the long term, factors such as the Fed's easing expectations and the RKAB approval are expected to support the nickel price. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the SHFE nickel main contract running between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is in a volatile adjustment. The fundamental improvement has been reflected in the market, and there is currently no new marginal change to drive the price up. Attention should be paid to industry information and macro - expectation changes. The reference operating range of the GZFE lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 70800 - 75800 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. Although the ore price has short - term support, it may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to be strong. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to run between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The demand for stainless steel is weak due to the downturn in the real estate industry. Although the demand from the new energy vehicle industry is increasing, it cannot offset the decline in traditional demand. The downstream consumption has not improved significantly, and the market is waiting and watching [16][17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high in the short term. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost is strongly supported by the supply disturbance of scrap aluminum at home and abroad. With the exchange reducing the margin ratio, market activity is increasing [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing a slight upward trend, with current trading prices showing a minor increase compared to previous sessions [1][2]. - On September 2, LME aluminum futures opened at $2619.5 per ton and reached a current price of $2624 per ton, reflecting a 0.17% increase [1]. - The trading range for LME aluminum on September 1 included an opening price of $2614.0, a high of $2620.0, a low of $2605.0, and a closing price of $2619.5, indicating a 0.04% change [2]. Group 2 - As of September 1, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 58,529 tons, which is a decrease of 100 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.9, with an import loss of -1,323.15 yuan per ton, compared to -1,288.51 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]. - LME's registered aluminum warehouse receipts stood at 468,750 tons, with canceled receipts at 12,300 tons, indicating no change, while total aluminum inventory remained at 481,050 tons, also unchanged [2].

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing a weak trend, opening at $2614 per ton and currently at $2611 per ton, with a decline of 0.31% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $2619 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2608.5 per ton [1] - On August 29, LME aluminum futures opened at $2607.5, peaked at $2622.0, and closed at $2618.5, reflecting a change of 0.40% [2] Group 2 - As of August 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 58,629 tons, an increase of 1,354 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.93, with an import loss of -1,288.51 yuan per ton, slightly improved from -1,318.71 yuan per ton the previous day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 468,750 tons, with canceled receipts at 12,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons, and total aluminum inventory at 481,050 tons, also down by 100 tons [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in LME copper futures prices, with a current price of $9835.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.60% increase from the opening price of $9795 per ton [1] - On August 13, LME copper futures opened at $9829.0, reached a high of $9865.0, and closed at $9781.0, showing a decrease of 0.61% [1] - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 8.09 on August 13, indicating an import loss of 75.3 yuan per ton, slightly improved from the previous day's loss of 75.33 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - As of August 13, LME registered copper warrants totaled 144,325 tons, with canceled warrants at 11,550 tons, a decrease of 50 tons [1] - LME copper inventory increased by 875 tons, reaching a total of 155,875 tons on August 13 [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in copper futures warrants to 22,800 tons, down by 3,496 tons from the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices continue to decline, with a current price of $2607.5 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.29% from the opening price [1] Group 1: LME Aluminum Futures Performance - On August 11, LME aluminum futures opened at $2606 per ton and reached a high of $2615 per ton and a low of $2605 per ton [1] - On August 8, the LME aluminum futures closed at $2614.0 per ton, with a slight increase of 0.15% from the previous day [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market Updates - As of August 8, the registered aluminum warehouse receipts at LME totaled 456,350 tons, with 14,225 tons canceled, remaining unchanged [1] - The total aluminum inventory at LME increased by 1,075 tons to reach 470,575 tons [1] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.9, with an import loss of -1,581.27 yuan per ton, improving from -1,662.79 yuan per ton the previous trading day [1] - On August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 1,568 tons to 43,599 tons compared to the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with a slight decline observed in the latest trading session [1] Group 1: LME Aluminum Futures Performance - On August 8, LME aluminum futures opened at $2612.5 per ton and are currently at $2608 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.10% [1] - The trading session on August 7 saw LME aluminum futures open at $2619.0, reach a high of $2641.5, a low of $2501.0, and close at $2610.0, marking a decline of 0.51% [1] Group 2: Market Data and Inventory - As of August 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 42,031 tons, a decrease of 631 tons compared to the previous trading day [1] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.87, with an import loss of -1662.79 yuan per ton, compared to -1293.96 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts stood at 455,275 tons with 14,225 tons canceled, while total aluminum inventory increased by 1,575 tons to 469,500 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the upcoming US copper tariff and the current off - season, while being affected by the tight copper raw material situation[2]. - The aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term because of the potential increase in aluminum ingot supply and the off - season downstream demand[4]. - The lead price shows a relatively strong trend overall, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under the pressure of weak domestic consumption[5]. - The zinc price is expected to be bearish in the medium - long term due to the abundant supply, but may show an oscillating trend in the short term influenced by market sentiment[6]. - The tin price is predicted to oscillate weakly in the short term as supply and demand are balanced with the strengthening expectation of Myanmar's tin mine复产[7]. - The nickel price is recommended to be shorted at high levels as the valuation of nickel price relative to nickel - iron has risen to a relatively high level[8]. - The lithium carbonate price may face pressure as supply is expected to remain high despite short - term rebounds[9]. - The alumina price is expected to be shorted at high levels considering the over - capacity situation, with the ore price as the core factor[11]. - The stainless steel market is in an off - season with limited demand and reduced trading activity[13]. - The casting aluminum alloy price has significant upward resistance due to the off - season and large spot - futures price difference[16]. Summaries by Metals Copper - Market performance: LME copper closed up 0.15% to $9657/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78070 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110475 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 11.4%. The domestic Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 1600 tons to 50000 tons[2]. - Outlook: The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 77200 - 78600 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9500 - 9720/ton[2]. Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum closed down 0.52% to $2583/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20390 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 9000 hands to 636000 hands, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 1600 tons to 70000 tons[4]. - Outlook: The aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20200 - 20550 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2550 - 2610/ton[4]. Lead - Market performance: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.88% to 16946 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $28.5 to $1988.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 60000 tons[5]. - Outlook: The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited under weak domestic consumption[5]. Zinc - Market performance: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.73% to 22070 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $27.5 to $2711.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 93100 tons[6]. - Outlook: The zinc price is bearish in the medium - long term and may oscillate in the short term[6]. Tin - Market performance: The tin price oscillated. The combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 54.07%. The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9644 tons as of July 11, 2025[7]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic tin price operating in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton and LME tin price in the range of $31000 - 35000/ton[7]. Nickel - Market performance: The nickel price rebounded at night. The main contradiction lies in the stainless - steel production line. The nickel - iron production profit is extremely low, and the ore price has weakened recently[8]. - Outlook: The nickel price is recommended to be shorted at high levels, with the Shanghai nickel main contract operating in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the corresponding range[8]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed up 1.26%. The LC2509 contract closed up 0.27%[9]. - Outlook: The lithium carbonate price may face pressure, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2509 contract operating in the range of 64800 - 68200 yuan/ton[9]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose 0.61% to 3143 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Guizhou and Shanxi increased. The import window is closed, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 6900 tons to 25500 tons[11]. - Outlook: The alumina price is recommended to be shorted at high levels, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton[11]. Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12695 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The social inventory increased to 1167500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 3.12%[13]. - Outlook: The stainless - steel market is in an off - season with limited demand[13]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract fell 0.08% to 19790 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price remained flat, and the inventory in three regions increased by 900 tons to 27600 tons[15][16]. - Outlook: The casting aluminum alloy price has significant upward resistance[16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term due to a relatively neutral sentiment, tight raw - material supply, but weakening consumer resilience [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise, but the upward height is limited because of improved domestic commodity atmosphere, inventory depletion, and the impact of US tariff policies [3]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weakly operational due to weak downstream consumption and high inventory of recycled lead products [4]. - Zinc prices may continue to decline if there is no production - control move from the industrial side, considering the surplus of zinc ore and weak terminal consumption [6]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the supply side faces uncertainties and downstream has a strong demand for low - price procurement [7][8]. - Nickel fundamentals have slightly improved in the short term, but are bearish in the long run, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate as there is a lack of marginal changes in supply and demand [11]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by costs, and it is recommended to short lightly on rebounds [13]. - The future trend of stainless steel depends on whether downstream demand can initiate substantial restocking [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.45% to $9725/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 79030 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 2000 to 120400 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 3.4 million tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic copper spot import loss widened, and the scrap - copper substitution advantage increased [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.44% to $2494/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20050 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.1 to 35.6 million tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 36.0 million tons [3]. - **Market**: The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to rise, and the spot premium in East China remained flat [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed up 0.67% to 16877 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1987/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 4.22 million tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 5.09 million tons [4]. - **Market**: Downstream battery enterprises' production rate dropped to 60%, and the production rate of primary lead smelting rose to 70% [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.36% to 21715 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2639.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 0.31 million tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.17 million tons [6]. - **Market**: Zinc ore remained in surplus, and zinc smelters' profits increased [6]. Tin - **Price**: On June 10, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 263420 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [7]. - **Supply**: It is expected that domestic tin ore imports will decrease by 500 - 1000 tons in June, and the smelting enterprises' operating rate is low [7]. - **Demand**: Downstream enterprises' orders did not increase significantly, and the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices decreased as prices rose [8]. Nickel - **Price**: SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121360 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, and LME main contract closed at $15530/ton, down 0.42% [9]. - **Supply**: Nickel ore supply was tight, and some Indonesian smelters reduced production [9]. - **Market**: The price of nickel - iron rebounded, and the price of nickel sulfate was expected to strengthen [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index was 60,537 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed at 60,760 yuan, up 0.10% [11]. - **Market**: The contract positions decreased, and the main contract was expected to switch to LC2509 [11]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 0.21% to 2883 yuan/ton, and the Shandong spot price was 3275 yuan/ton, with a premium of 337 yuan/ton over the 07 contract [12][13]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts were 8.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.33 million tons [13]. - **Market**: The bauxite price in Guinea decreased, and it is recommended to short lightly on rebounds [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12460 yuan/ton, down 1.42%, and spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory was 120039 tons, a decrease of 1624, and the social inventory increased by 2.06% [15]. - **Market**: The market competition was fierce after the price - limit policy was lifted, and downstream users held a wait - and - see attitude [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, the supply shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia persists, and prices remain stable with strong cost support. However, the oversupply of refined nickel remains unchanged. It is expected to experience a weak oscillation in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, despite steel mill production cuts, overall demand is sluggish, leading to inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On June 9, 2025, the main contract 2507 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,280 yuan/ton and closed at 122,710 yuan/ton, a 0.47% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 115,890 lots, and the open interest was 76,246 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose rapidly in the night session, then oscillated and fell back to near the previous day's closing price. In the day session, it oscillated up to near the night - session high and then slightly declined, closing with a medium - sized positive candle. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The shipping efficiency of the Surigao mining area in the Philippines has recovered well. Iron plants have implemented production cuts due to losses, weakening the demand for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply shortage in the Sulawesi nickel mining area persists due to rainfall. The domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, with a premium of +26 - 28, and the overall price was basically flat month - on - month [2][3][4]. - China's estimated refined nickel output in June is 37,345 tons, a 3.75% increase month - on - month. In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel increased by about 500 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the quotations of mainstream brands decreased. The refined nickel spot trading was average, with the oversupply situation remaining unchanged but strong cost support at the bottom [2]. - The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,192 (35.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 199,092 (- 1,014) tons [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Range - bound operation. - Mid - to long - term: Sell on rallies for hedging. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On June 9, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 12,715 yuan/ton and closed at 12,655 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,364 lots, and the open interest was 146,067 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated and fell to the previous low after a slight consolidation in the night session. In the day session, it dropped rapidly to a new low and then rebounded slightly, closing with a medium - sized negative candle. The trading volume and open interest increased compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Similar to the nickel situation, the shipping efficiency of the Surigao mining area in the Philippines has recovered well. Iron plants have cut production due to losses, weakening the demand for nickel ore. The nickel ore supply shortage in the Sulawesi nickel mining area in Indonesia persists due to rainfall [3][4]. - The domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, with a premium of +26 - 28, and the overall price was basically flat month - on - month. The high - nickel iron price is 950 - 960 yuan/nickel, and some Indonesian iron plants have switched to high - grade nickel matte production [4]. - In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures price dropped slightly. The price limit of Tsingshan 304 hot - and cold - rolled products was lowered by 100 yuan, and traders' cold - rolled prices followed suit. The market had rigid demand for purchases, and the trading of low - price resources was average. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 13,050 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 465 - 665 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 949.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Short - term: Neutral. - Mid - to long - term: Sell on rallies for hedging. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4].