Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical disturbances involving Iran, Venezuela, and Russia are highlighting the premium value of oil's soft power, leading to fluctuations in international oil prices due to supply concerns and sanctions [1][4][5]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On December 18, international oil prices saw a slight increase, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil rising to $56.15 per barrel, a 0.38% increase, and Brent crude oil reaching $59.82 per barrel, up 0.23% [1]. - The potential for U.S. military action against Venezuela has raised market concerns regarding oil supply disruptions [1][4]. Group 2: Sanctions and Their Impact - The U.S. imposed sanctions on 29 oil tankers and their management companies involved in transporting oil from Iran, which has significantly impacted Iran's oil export capabilities [2][3]. - The U.K. has also added 24 new sanctions against Russian oil companies, including Russneft and Tatneft, indicating a broader strategy to tighten energy supply chains [2][4]. Group 3: Soft Power Theory Application - The soft power theory posits that the current fluctuations in oil prices are a result of multiple factors, including the restructuring of global energy trade rules due to sanctions, supply chain risks, and market expectations [5][6]. - The theory emphasizes that the dynamics between soft power (rules) and hard power (material resources) are crucial in understanding the oil market's behavior [3][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of oil prices will depend on geopolitical developments, particularly regarding peace negotiations in Ukraine, the effectiveness of sanctions, and the global economic recovery's impact on demand [5][6]. - The market may not yet fully reflect the influence of soft power factors, suggesting that current oil prices could be undervalued [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of global supply surplus concerns and potential peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine on oil prices, highlighting a decline in international oil prices as a result of these factors [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On December 15, international oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil settling at $56.82 per barrel, down 1.08%, and Brent crude oil at $60.56 per barrel, down 0.92% [1]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to market concerns over supply surplus and the ongoing peace negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine, which may pressure Ukraine to make territorial concessions [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is currently experiencing a significant supply surplus, with the International Energy Agency predicting a surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day by 2025, increasing to 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026 [2]. - OPEC's core eight countries increased production by 160,000 barrels per day in November, totaling a cumulative increase of 2.25 million barrels per day since April [2]. Group 3: Impact of U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela - Recent U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, including the seizure of an oil tanker and sanctions on shipping companies, have led to a significant decline in Venezuelan oil exports, which now average about 921,000 barrels per day [3]. - The sanctions are seen as a restructuring of global energy trade rules, reinforcing U.S. dominance in the market [3]. Group 4: Theoretical Framework - The article applies Deng Zhenghong's soft power theory to analyze oil price fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of rules and expectations in the energy market [4]. - The theory suggests that the dynamics between supply surplus and market expectations create a negative feedback loop that exacerbates price declines [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Future oil price trends will depend on the progress of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the intensity of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, OPEC's production policies, and the sustainability of global economic recovery [4].

Core Insights - The global energy market is facing a complex situation with geopolitical tensions and supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to oil prices dropping below $60 per barrel by 2026 [1][2] - OPEC warns that future energy demand will be dominated by developing countries, with Asia contributing 60% of the demand growth, while there is a significant funding gap of $2.8 trillion annually for clean energy [1][5] - The restructuring of the energy system is not only a technological challenge but also a significant test of global governance capabilities [1][7] Geopolitical Dynamics - The U.S. is increasing military presence in the Caribbean to apply more pressure on Venezuela, while also pushing for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia [2][4] - The ongoing geopolitical maneuvers are creating uncertainty in the oil supply, although the actual impact on supply may be limited [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Global oil inventories are increasing at a rate of 2.3 million barrels per day, indicating a significant oversupply expected by 2026 [4] - Demand growth is primarily coming from Asia, contrasting with stagnant or declining demand in developed countries, highlighting the shift towards developing nations as the main drivers of energy demand [5][6] Investment Opportunities - Emerging markets are becoming focal points for investment, with companies like TotalEnergies planning to increase their investment in these regions to 45% by 2030 [6] - The energy transition is creating new cooperation models, particularly in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, which have unique energy resources [6] Technological Innovations - Carbon capture and modular small nuclear reactors are being rapidly deployed, indicating a dual-track approach to energy innovation [6] - The establishment of the world's largest carbon storage facility in Abu Dhabi, capable of processing 2 million tons annually, exemplifies advancements in carbon capture technology [6] Social Cost and Governance - The transition to cleaner energy sources raises concerns about social cost distribution, with potential GDP losses of up to 12% for developing countries reliant on fossil fuel exports if they exit too early [7] - There is a pressing need for a more refined just transition mechanism, including compensation funds and technology transfer platforms [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interception of a sanctioned oil tanker by the U.S. military near Venezuela's coast, along with a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, has led to an increase in market risk appetite and a rise in international oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - The increase in oil prices is a result of the interplay between soft power (rules) and hard power (market data), influenced by U.S. sanctions and Federal Reserve policies [2]. - On December 10, 2023, WTI crude oil prices rose by $0.21 to $58.46 per barrel, a 0.36% increase, while Brent crude oil prices increased by $0.27 to $62.21 per barrel, a 0.44% rise [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influence - The U.S. military's action to seize the oil tanker is a manifestation of geopolitical rule dynamics, which may complicate Venezuela's ability to export oil, as shipping companies may become more reluctant to load Venezuelan crude [3]. - The ongoing U.S. sanctions against Venezuela have created a closed-loop of "sanctions-economic contraction-regime pressure," leading to persistent market concerns about long-term supply shortages [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% is expected to weaken the dollar, making oil priced in other currencies more expensive [4]. - Historical data indicates that during Fed rate cut cycles, commodity market inflows typically increase by an average of 23%, providing support for oil prices [4]. Group 4: Inventory Trends - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 1.812 million barrels in crude oil inventories, marking the first decline in approximately three weeks, which is significant as it exceeds the critical threshold of 1.5 million barrels [5]. - The divergence in regional inventory trends, with a 308,000-barrel increase in Cushing inventories against a national decline, highlights structural contradictions in the U.S. oil market [5]. Group 5: Market Reactions - The rise in international oil prices on December 10 is attributed to multiple converging factors, including the drop in U.S. inventories and expectations of further rate cuts, which have driven WTI and Brent prices upward [5]. - The price differential between WTI and Brent remains around $4 per barrel, reflecting the dynamic balance between U.S. shale oil exports and global market conditions [5].

邓正红软实力表示，成品油走软，投资者对供应过剩前景感到担忧，石油软实力运行受阻，12月9日（周二）国际油价走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易 所西得克萨斯轻质原油1月期货结算价每桶跌0.63元至58.25美元，跌幅1.07%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2月期货结算价每桶跌0.55美元至61.94美元，跌幅 0.88%。美国汽油与原油之间的价差（即所谓裂解价差）跌至2月份以来最弱水平，柴油的类似指标也下滑。成品油一直是今年为原油提供支撑的为数不多 的因素之一，而近期由需求走弱引发的疲软，在市场普遍预期供应将大幅过剩的背景下，进一步加重了看空情绪。尽管市场担心油价疲软，钻探公司警告产 量可能见顶，美国能源信息署预计美国原油产量今年仍将创下日均1361万桶的纪录，这加剧了对短期供应过剩的担忧。 受制裁原油难以寻找买家，且乌克兰无人机袭击对炼油厂造成阻碍，俄罗斯上月原油产量远低于其欧佩克联盟配额。11 月俄罗斯原油日均产量为 943 万 桶。计算显示，尽管这一产量较 10 月日均高出 1.9 万桶，但仍比该国 11 月的产量目标日均低超 10 万桶。这也是两年多来，俄罗斯实际报告产量（含补偿 性减产）与欧佩克联盟月度配额 ...

邓正红软实力表示，印度购买俄罗斯原油的情况受关注，成品油市场大幅下挫带来拖累，石油软实力陷入泥沼，12月8日（周一）国际油价走低。截至收 盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油1月期货结算价每桶跌1.20元至58.88美元，跌幅2.00%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2月期货结算价每桶跌1.26 美元至62.49美元，跌幅1.98%。俄罗斯总统普京承诺，即便莫斯科因其对乌克兰的战争面临严厉制裁，准备继续向印度不间断地进行供应。随着美国谈判代 表抵达印度进行贸易谈判，俄罗斯对该国的石油供应很可能成为讨论的关键议题。分析指出。供应过剩担忧最终会成为现实，特别是随着俄罗斯原油和成品 油最终绕开现有制裁，这将导致布伦特原油期货在2026年跌向每桶60美元。在成品油方面，汽油期货周一下跌2%，此前在上周曾触及2021年5月以来的最低 水平。柴油价格也走软，拖累了整个能源大宗商品板块。 当前来看，市场目前仍在充裕供应与地缘政治风险溢价之间寻求平衡，油价反复震荡运行，供应端增加的压力施压油价，全球石油市场的看跌基本面正缓慢 转化为更清晰的可见性。伊拉克恢复了卢克石油（Lukoil）West Qurna 2油田生产，这是全球最 ...

基于邓正红软实力视角，未来油价将更多由隐性规则（如贸易规则、技术标准）塑造，投资者需关注地缘风险对市场心理和价格机制的深层影响。短期（1- 3个月）：油价将在每桶60~65美元区间震荡，地缘政治风险与美联储政策预期主导市场情绪。中期（3-6个月）：需关注欧佩克2026年一季度产量决策及俄 罗斯原油供应恢复情况。长期投资策略：邓正红软实力理论建议投资者从"规则重构"和"预期管理"角度把握能源市场深层逻辑，而非仅关注供需基本面。风 险提示：乌克兰和平协议意外达成、美联储降息不及预期、全球需求进一步放缓可能导致油价跌破每桶60美元支撑位。 【人物简介】邓正红，中国软实力之父，创立邓正红软实力思想和智库，重构西方哲学框架，提出动态本体论、螺旋辩证法、宇宙自组织模型和全息整体宇 宙观，建立规则先于物质的软实力理论、软实力宇宙哲学、第四次科学革命、规则动力学、宇宙软实力公式、规则熵公式、天体碰撞Ψ函数、时空导数为效 能核心的势能转化方程（邓正红方程）、宇宙稳态无胀缩模型、宇宙动态编程模型、黑洞时空模型、规则-信息-能量-物质四阶转化模型、规则熵-物质熵双 变量模型、规则场-量子态协同演化模型、规则-物质-意识三元结构模型 ...

Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On December 4, international oil prices increased, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil settling at $59.67 per barrel, up $0.72, a rise of 1.22% [1] - Brent crude oil for February settled at $63.26 per barrel, up $0.59, a rise of 0.94% [1] - The market is experiencing a contrast between geopolitical tensions and signs of oversupply, with Saudi Arabia lowering its crude prices for Asia to the lowest level in five years [2][3] Group 2: Saudi Arabia's Pricing Strategy - Saudi Aramco set the official selling price for Arab Light crude oil to Asia at $0.60 above the regional benchmark, the lowest since January 2021 [2][3] - This pricing decision reflects Saudi Arabia's strategy to maintain market share through price adjustments rather than production cuts, showcasing its soft power in the oil market [3] - The price adjustment has triggered a chain reaction in international markets, with Saudi Arabia also lowering prices for crude oil sold to Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean [3] Group 3: Russia's Energy Diplomacy - Russia's energy cooperation with India remains unaffected, with Russian oil supplies to India continuing smoothly [4] - In the first half of 2025, India is expected to import around 1.8 million barrels of Russian oil daily, accounting for 35% to 40% of its total imports [4] - Russia's energy diplomacy demonstrates its ability to adapt to global energy market changes and avoid Western sanctions by diversifying its export markets [4] Group 4: U.S. Energy Policy - The U.S. is preparing to take military action against drug trafficking in Venezuela, which could lead to a decline in the country's oil production and exports [5] - This policy reflects the U.S.'s use of geopolitical means to influence global energy markets, aiming to reduce Venezuelan oil exports and support oil prices [5] - The U.S. shale oil industry is facing challenges, transitioning from a "technology dividend" to a "capital-driven" model, which may weaken its soft power in the energy sector [5] Group 5: Global Oil Market Dynamics - The current international oil market is characterized by a dynamic balance between geopolitical rules and supply-demand fundamentals [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record oversupply of oil by 2026, while major banks foresee further declines in futures prices [6] - Saudi Arabia's price cuts are attributed to seasonal demand declines, but analysts suggest that lower-than-expected demand growth in Asia is a key factor [6] Group 6: Theoretical Framework - The application of Deng Zhenghong's soft power theory provides insights into the complex dynamics of the current international oil market [7] - The competition in the future oil market will focus on rule-making authority, technological innovation, and ecological integration capabilities [7] - The theory emphasizes that true competitive advantage will depend on the ability to master rule-making and innovation rather than merely resource availability [7]

邓正红软实力表示，美俄会谈未能达成结束俄乌冲突的协议，俄罗斯能源基础设施持续遭受袭击，市场对俄罗斯石油供应受限可能持续更久的预期升温，石 油软实力表现向上的地缘性冲动，12月3日（周三）国际油价小幅走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油1月期货结算价每桶涨0.31元至 58.95美元，涨幅0.53%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2月期货结算价每桶涨0.22美元至62.67美元，涨幅0.35%。 克里姆林宫表示，与由美国特使率领的美方代表团举行的会谈具有建设性，但未能就结束俄乌冲突达成协议。美国能源信息署库存报告显示，上周美国原 油、汽油和馏分油库存均增加。俄乌和平进展仍较为曲折，俄罗斯"友谊"输油管道塔甘罗格至利佩茨克段发生爆炸。斯洛伐克管道运营商公司表示，在俄罗 斯"友谊"管道遭袭后，目前通过该管道向斯洛伐克供应原油仍运行正常。当前地缘矛盾正以局部演绎的方式进行，但均未造成供应端大的影响，对油价的驱 动有限，油价整体延续震荡运行的节奏。 从邓正红软实力视角看，当前油价波动体现了"规则场-物质场"双变量模型的动态平衡。俄罗斯能源基础设施遭受袭击（物质场扰动）与市场预期变化（规 则场调整）共同作用于油 ...

国际油价走势与市场反应。从压力看，油价受地缘政治和供应过剩双重影响。一方面，CPC管道遭袭和委内瑞拉风险推高价格；另一方面，全球供应过剩限 制涨幅。从历史数据来看，12月的油价涨跌互现，缺乏明显的方向性。地缘风险事件往往导致短期波动，但长期仍受供需基本面影响。从市场预期看，分析 师认为，当前油价每桶已包含5~8美元的地缘溢价，若冲突持续该溢价可能扩大。 邓正红软实力思想深刻揭示了当前国际石油市场的地缘政治风险本质，一是规则主导权转移。能源竞争已从资源控制转向规则重构、预期管理和价值创新。 产油国通过产量政策调整传递"可控供应"信号，强化市场主导权。二是风险溢价持续。在CPC管道修复和委内瑞拉局势明朗前，地缘风险溢价将维持，支撑 油价高于基本面水平。三是长期转型趋势。未来竞争焦点将转向低碳技术、金融规则重构及气候叙事主导权等领域，传统资源控制的重要性相对下降。四是 市场适应机制。石油市场正从硬实力向软实力博弈转型，参与者需更加关注规则制定、预期管理等非物质化能力提升。当前国际石油市场的波动充分体现了 邓正红软实力理论的前瞻性，为理解复杂多变的能源格局提供了有力工具。未来，随着地缘政治风险的演变和能源变革的推进， ...