交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 利多： 利空： 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2026-1-14） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，总体供需宽松，港口库存累库，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价875，基差52；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价886，基差64，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存17044.44万吨，环比增加，同比增加；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：国内需求降低，港口累库，但宏观情绪强烈，震荡思路 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁矿石期现基差 铁矿石港口现货价格 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨 ...

据统计全国钢厂进口铁矿石库存总量为8989.59万吨，环比增43.05万吨；当前样本钢厂的进口矿日耗为283.28万吨，环比增2.61万吨；库存消费比 31.73天，环比减0.14天。 1月8日：全国主港铁矿石成交103万吨，环比上涨71.1%；远期现货成交112.7万吨。 本周(1月5日-1月9日)市场上看，铁矿石期货周内开盘报791.5元/吨，最高触及831.5元/吨，最低下探至787.0元/吨，周度涨跌幅达3.17%。 消息面回顾： 据统计全国47个港口进口铁矿库存总量17044.44万吨，环比增加322.65万吨；日均疏港量336.96万吨，降3.25万吨。 截至2026年1月9日当周，铁矿石期货主力合约收于814.5元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持46537手。 机构观点汇总： 南华期货（603093）：目前铁矿石基本面中性。发运端中性偏多，海漂压力大，后续到港压力较大。需求端，钢厂利润回升，库存持续去化，给 出钢厂增产的空间，预计铁水见底回升。库存端，库存偏高，但结构性缺货，关注政策风险。钢厂有节前补库需求支撑。总体来说，铁矿石目前 现货不缺，目前的基本面难以支撑价格持续上行。短期技术面上价 ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 | | | | | | 表1：1月5日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 3122 | 3135 | 3135 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：宏观政策层面干扰退化，钢厂补库尚未开始 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 16 日 【基本面逻辑分析】 1、供给端：本期全球铁矿石发运总量 3592.5 万吨，环比增加 224.0 万吨。 其中，澳洲、巴西及非主流国家的发运量都呈现环比上升。2025 年 12 月 08 日 -12 月 14 日中国 47 港到港总量 2928.1 万吨，环比增加 358.9 万吨。到港量延 续攀升态势，前期飓风对外矿的发运影响逐步衰退，且年底发运有一定冲量的动 力，后期整体发运趋于平稳逐步回升。 2、需求端：本周日均铁水产量 229.2（-3.1）万吨；247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.63%（-1.92）；高炉炼铁产能利用率 85.92%（-1.16）；钢厂盈利率 35.93% （-0.43）。本期铁水产量继续季节性下滑，螺纹与热卷的产量超季节性下滑， 高炉近期同时面临环保及年度检修，烧结粉矿日耗库存双下滑，铁水产量仍有持 续下滑预期，钢厂对于原料的补库需求仍然保持慢节奏。 3、库存端：港口库存持续增加。本周 47 个港口进口铁矿库存总量 16111.47 万吨，环比增加 120.36 万吨； ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report In the context of the gradual decline of macro - event disturbances, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With weak rigid demand, inventory accumulation, and a stable and rising shipping volume, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - The total global iron ore shipping volume this period is 3.5925 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 224,000 tons. The shipping volumes of Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries all increased month - on - month. From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.9281 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 358,900 tons. The arrival volume continued to rise. The impact of the previous hurricane on foreign ore shipping gradually diminished, and there is a certain impetus for year - end shipping to increase. The overall shipping volume is expected to be stable and gradually recover [1]. Demand Side - The daily average pig iron output this week is 229,200 (- 3,100) tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.63% (- 1.92%); the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 85.92% (- 1.16%); the steel mill profitability rate is 35.93% (- 0.43%). The pig iron output continued its seasonal decline, the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils declined more than seasonally. Blast furnaces are facing environmental protection and annual maintenance. The daily consumption and inventory of sintered powder ore both declined. There is still an expected continuous decline in pig iron output, and steel mills' demand for raw material replenishment remains at a slow pace [1]. Inventory Side - Port inventories continued to increase. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports this week was 16.11147 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,360 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 334,170 tons, a decrease of 60 tons. Port inventories continued to accumulate, and the pressure of ships at ports was relieved. The steel mill inventory decreased month - on - month. The total inventory of imported iron ore of national steel mills was 8.8342 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150,530 tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore of the sample steel mills was 283,270 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,800 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.19 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 days. Steel mill inventories continued to decline, daily consumption continued to decline with the decrease in pig iron output, the inventory - to - sales ratio weakened, and steel mills were not eager to replenish inventory [2]. Profit Side - The landing profit of PB powder is - 13.33 (+ 10.42) yuan/ton, and the landing profit of Super Special powder is - 6.2 (+ 13.02) yuan/ton [2].

研究报告 铁矿周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 基本面： 据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 82.19%，环比减少 0.62%，同比增加 0.26%；日均铁水产量 236.28 万吨，环比减少 0.60 万吨， 同比增加0.48万吨，钢厂盈利率37.66%，环比减少1.30%，同比减少16.89%， 全国 45 个港口进口铁矿库存总量 1.5 亿吨，环比下降 75.06 万吨；日均疏 港量 329.92 万吨，增 2.97 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 后市展望：全球铁矿发运量回升，港口库存在此前大幅上升后，上 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals show that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decrease, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are accumulating, and terminal demand is weak, indicating a bearish outlook. The basis shows that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, which is bullish. Port inventories are 15,812.84 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, considered neutral. The price is below the 20 - day moving average which is flat, suggesting a bearish view. The main positions in iron ore are net long but the long positions are decreasing, which is bullish. With the expected decline in domestic demand and port inventory accumulation, the overall view is a sideways - to - bearish trend [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Fundamentals: Steel mills' hot metal production decreases, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories accumulate, and terminal demand is weak; bearish [2] - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 826 with a basis of 53; Rizhao Port Brazilian blend spot converted to futures price is 844 with a basis of 71, spot at a premium to futures; bullish [2] - Inventory: Port inventory is 15,812.84 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; neutral [2] - Disk: Price is below the 20 - day moving average which is flat; bearish [2] - Main positions: Iron ore main positions are net long but long positions are decreasing; bullish [2] - Expectation: Domestic demand declines, port inventories accumulate, sideways - to - bearish trend [2] 利多 (Positive Factors) - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6] - Port inventories decrease [6] - Import losses occur [6] - Downstream steel prices rise, with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6] 利空 (Negative Factors) - Future shipping volumes will increase [6] - Terminal demand remains weak [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-11-10） 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁矿石： 每日观点 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，总体供需宽松，港口库存累库，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价815，基差54；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价837，基差77，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存15,624.13万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：国内需求降低，港口累库，震荡偏空思路 利多： 利空： 铁矿石港口现货价格 铁 ...

Report Title - "Black Metal Weekly Report - Iron Ore" [1] Report Date - October 27, 2025 [3] Report Author - Bai Jing, with the industry qualification number F03097282 and investment consulting certificate number Z0018999 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - High basis restricts the downward momentum, and the iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 95 (756) - 105 (836) US dollars [6][10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Fundamental Analysis and Conclusions - **Price Trends**: Last week, the mainstream spot prices of iron ore were consolidating. The prices of some varieties such as PB powder (+1), BRBF (+2), and Super Special powder (+2) increased slightly, while others like Carajás fines (-25) and PB lump (-3) decreased. As of October 24, the Platts 62% index closed at $105.15, down $0.15 week - on - week, equivalent to about 871 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.12. The optimal deliverable product was NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 775 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 800 yuan/ton [7] - **Inventory Situation**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China increased week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 15,109.49 tons, an increase of 148 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 501 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 937 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at 47 ports may increase in the next period [7] - **Supply Side**: - **Shipping**: The global iron ore shipping volume in this period was 33.884 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 548,000 tons. The shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 28.445 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.045 million tons. Australia's shipping volume was 19.195 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,000 tons, of which the volume shipped to China was 16.253 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 9.251 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.007 million tons [8] - **Arrival**: From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 20.843 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.92 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 20.291 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.903 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.959 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.073 million tons [8] - **Demand Side**: In this period, 4 blast furnaces were newly shut down for maintenance, and 6 blast furnaces resumed production, mainly in the Northeast, Hebei, and Shanxi regions. Due to environmental protection issues in Hebei, the supply of sinter decreased, and some steel mills reduced production. In addition, due to the continuous decline in finished product prices, the loss range of steel mills further expanded, and the profit rate dropped to the lowest level this year. From 12:00 on October 27, heavy pollution weather level - II emergency responses were launched in some cities in Hebei, and some steel mills in Tangshan extended the sintering machine production restriction time to the end of October, with blast furnaces shutting down 30% of their production capacity according to the production capacity [9] - **Conclusion**: From a fundamental perspective, the iron ore shipping volume continued to recover week - on - week and was at a seasonal high, while the arrival volume decreased significantly week - on - week. The iron ore output continued to decline slightly in this period, and it is expected to continue to decline during the environmental protection production restriction in Hebei from the 27th to the end of the month. After the production restriction is lifted, the output is expected to recover. In terms of valuation, the recent continuous contraction of the spot and futures profit per ton of steel has an impact on the raw material price fluctuation rhythm. The high basis restricts the decline range, and the market may show a volatile trend in the short term [10] Part 2: Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price**: As of October 24, the optimal deliverable product was Newman powder, with a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 800 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal deliverable product was PB powder with a converted warehouse receipt of about 809 yuan/ton [15] - **Iron Ore Inter - period Spread**: As of October 24, the spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 closed at 20.5 (- 0.5) [18] - **Iron Ore Premium Index**: As of October 23, the premium index of 62.5% lump ore was 0.1285 (- 0.0155), and the premium index of 65% pellet was 17.75 (-) [28] - **Steel Mill Sintered Powder Inventory**: The inventory of imported sintered powder in 64 sample steel mills decreased by 0.03% week - on - week, and the inventory of domestic sintered powder decreased by 1.84% week - on - week. The average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 4.76% week - on - week [34] - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory & Daily Consumption**: The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.07% week - on - week, the daily consumption decreased by 0.30% week - on - week, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased by 1.39% week - on - week [37] - **Port Inventory & Berthing**: The total inventory at 45 ports, Australian ore inventory, Brazilian ore inventory, and trade ore inventory at ports showed certain trends. The berthing ship number at 47 ports also had corresponding changes [40] - **Port Inventory by Ore Type**: The inventory of imported port lump ore increased by 7.82% week - on - week, the inventory of pellet ore increased by 3.97% week - on - week, the inventory of iron concentrate increased by 12.92% week - on - week, and the inventory of coarse powder decreased by 1.20% week - on - week [43] - **Shipping Volume of Major Iron Ore Producers**: - **Australia**: The shipping volume from Australia to China increased by 8.82% week - on - week, and the total shipping volume from Australia increased by 3.32% week - on - week [59] - **Brazil**: The shipping volume from Brazil to the world increased by 1.45% week - on - week [64] - **Four Major Mines**: The shipping volume of Rio Tinto to China increased by 11.36% week - on - week, BHP Billiton decreased by 16.30% week - on - week, Vale increased by 5.91% week - on - week, and FMG increased by 30.33% week - on - week [65] - **Iron Ore Arrival**: The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 19.5% week - on - week, and the arrival volume at northern ports decreased by 8.9% week - on - week [72] - **Domestic Iron Ore Production**: The inventory of iron concentrate in mines decreased by 3.16% week - on - week, and the production increased by 0.15% week - on - week [77] - **Steel Mill Powder Consumption & Capacity Utilization**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.43% week - on - week, the daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.44% week - on - week, the daily consumption of imported sintered powder increased by 3.22% week - on - week, and the daily consumption of domestic sintered powder decreased by 1.81% week - on - week [78] - **Pig Iron Production**: The daily average pig iron output data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association showed certain trends, with different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [83] - **Global Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production data of different regions such as the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, and the world showed different trends [86] - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production outside China had corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [90]

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 宏观兑现，铁水趋弱，矿价承压 铁矿石周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2025/10/25 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 周度要点小结 ◆ 供应：最新一期全球铁矿石发运总量3333.5万吨，环比增加126.0万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2825.0万吨，环比增加94.0万吨。澳洲发运 量1984.5万吨，环比增加68.2万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1729.1万吨，环比增加144.6万吨。巴西发运量840.5万吨，环比增加25.8万吨。 中国47港到港总量2676.3万吨，环比减少467.8万吨；中国45港到港总量2519.4万吨，环比减少526.4万吨。 ◆ 需求：日均铁水产量239.9万吨，环比上周减少1.05万吨。高炉炼铁产能利用率89.94%，环比上周减少0.39个百分点；钢厂盈利率47.62%， 环 ...