研究报告 铅周报 沪铅或以震荡趋势运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 7 日星期一 摘要： 【基本面分析】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 美国 6 月非农就业报告意外大幅强于预期，美联储可能采取 观望态度，美联储降息进程可能推后。铅贴水小幅扩大，铅加工 费仍然处于底部区域。铅产量同比、环比均下降。沪铅库存小幅 回升，库存水平处于近年来适中位置。LME 铅库存持续下降，库 存水平处于近年来高位。 【后市展望】 铅价或以震荡趋势为主。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铅供给变化 超预期。 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 一、行情复盘 （一）期货价格 根据上海期货交 ...

数据显示，7月2日上海铅锭现货价格报价16925.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（17175.00元/吨）贴水 250.00元/吨。 【市场资讯】 分析观点： （7月2日）全国铅价格一览表 南华期货（603093）研报：从基本面来看，供给端冶炼厂受较高铅价驱动，有一定复产意愿，社库逐步 累库进一步压制价格。原生铅方面，电解铅开工率相对再生铅保持强势，且副产品收益稳定。再生铅方 面，受废电瓶原料端供应较紧，冶炼厂信心不足，总体供给端方面偏紧。需求端，逼近旺季，生产备库 意愿加强，但价格上涨现货成交一般。短期内，受供需双弱与宏观影响，震荡为主。 规格 品牌/产地 报价 报价类型 交货地 交易商 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 上海华通 17025元/吨 市场价 上海 上海华通有色金属现货市场 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 广东南储 16975元/吨 市场价 广东省 广东南储有色现货市场 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 上海有色 16925元/吨 市场价 上海 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市场 期货市场上看，7月2日收盘，沪铅期货主力合约报17175.00元/吨，涨幅0.23 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-20 下游维持刚需采购 铅价持续震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-06-19，LME铅现货升水为-31.32美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化75元/吨至16775 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化75元 /吨至16800元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化100元/吨至16775元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化100元/吨至16825元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至10225元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10125元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10450元 /吨。 期货方面：2025-06-19，沪铅主力合约开于16850元/吨，收于16925元/吨，较前一交易日变化115元/吨，全天交易 日成交37967手，较前一交易日变化1410手，全天交易日持仓33907手，手较前一交易日变化-6147手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到16965元/吨，最低点达到167 ...

Group 1 - The mainstream ex-factory price of recycled refined lead is stable against the average price of SMM 1 lead, with some traders quoting a discount of around 50 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 16, the prices for 1 lead ingots in various markets are as follows: Shanghai Huaton at 16,850 yuan/ton, Shanghai Youse at 16,750 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Nanchu at 16,775 yuan/ton [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's lead futures main contract closed at 16,980.00 yuan/ton on June 16, with a slight increase of 0.18% [2] Group 2 - On June 16, the London Metal Exchange reported lead registered warrants at 186,525 tons and canceled warrants at 76,950 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons; total lead inventory is at 263,475 tons, also down by 1,500 tons [3] - A lead smelter in Central China is currently out of operation due to equipment failure, while high prices for recycled lead in East China are reported, with some downstream stating that prices are 100 yuan/ton higher than recycled lead [3] - According to a report from Galaxy Futures, recent increases in silver prices have improved the smelting profits for primary lead, leading to a slight increase in operational sentiment; however, recycled lead smelting plants are still facing losses, limiting operational rates [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of primary lead and recycled lead varies, with marginal increase in supply pressure. The off - season of lead - acid battery consumption continues, and the terminal sectors are slightly differentiated. Enterprises mainly accept long - term orders. With supply increasing and demand weak, there is insufficient upward drive for lead prices. However, due to the continuous existence of structural contradictions in raw material supply and demand, cost factors support lead prices. As the fundamental contradictions are not significantly intensified, it is expected that lead prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation [3][80]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In May 2025, Shanghai lead first increased and then decreased. In the first half of the month, with a series of domestic financial policies, the easing of Sino - US tariffs, and the strengthening of the interest - rate cut expectation due to the cooling of US inflation, the market risk appetite improved, and lead prices oscillated strongly. But it was difficult to break through the resistance at 17,000 yuan, and the price slightly回调. In the second half of the month, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and concerns about the US debt problem led to a decline in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the arrival of crude lead eased the raw material pressure, the price of waste batteries decreased slightly, the cost loosened, and the off - season of consumption remained unchanged, with increasing inventory pressure. Lead prices gave back the gains from the first half of the month. By May 30, the futures price closed at 16,620 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.31%. - LME lead first declined, then rebounded, and finally oscillated sideways. At the beginning of the month, tariff concerns gradually cooled, and LME inventory slightly declined from a high level, so LME lead stabilized and rebounded. Subsequently, market sentiment fluctuated around economic pressure, inflation, and interest - rate cut expectations. In the second half of the month, LME inventory increased significantly, strengthening the expectation of overseas surplus, and the lead price was under pressure. The resistance at $2,000/ton was obvious, and the futures price slightly declined and oscillated. Finally, it closed at $1,963.5/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.98% [8]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: In March 2025, global lead concentrate production was 367,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative production from January to March was 1.028 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.5%. ILZSG predicts that the global lead mine production in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.3% to 4.62 million tons. Overseas lead mines are producing steadily, and domestic lead concentrate production is also increasing. It is estimated that the global lead concentrate increment in 2025 is 160,000 tons, with 90,000 tons overseas and 70,000 tons in China. The contradiction of supply - demand mismatch in lead concentrate is expected to persist in the medium term [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees decline month - on - month, and lead concentrate imports decrease month - on - month**: In June 2025, the average monthly processing fees for domestic and overseas lead concentrates were 600 yuan/metal ton and - 30 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/metal ton and - 10 dollars/dry ton respectively. In April 2025, lead concentrate imports were 111,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 22.13%. The cumulative imports from January to April were 448,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41%. The import of silver concentrate also decreased in April. The supply - demand gap of lead concentrate exists in the long - term, and there is still a slight downward pressure on processing fees [19]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is gentle**: In March 2025, global refined lead production was 1.1316 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.72%. The cumulative production from January to March was 3.2584 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.7%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Overseas, there are no large - scale new refineries in recent years, mainly relying on the resumption and ramping - up of previous shut - down refineries. In China, new recycled lead refineries are the main focus, but projects are often postponed due to raw material constraints [25]. - **Electrolytic lead production in April was lower than expected, and supply mainly recovered in May**: In May 2025, electrolytic lead production was 331,200 tons, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. The cumulative production from January to May was 1.562 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In June, due to more refinery overhauls and tightened lead concentrate supply, it is expected that electrolytic lead production will be 320,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. For the whole year of 2025, electrolytic lead supply is expected to increase steadily [31]. - **The price of waste batteries moves up, and recycled lead refineries gradually resume production**: In May 2025, the average price of waste batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. In June, the price of waste batteries is expected to move up slightly. In May, recycled refined lead production was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. In June, production is expected to rebound to 267,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9%, but the raw material supply problem still needs attention [36][37]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: In March 2025, global refined lead consumption was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The cumulative consumption from January to March was 3.242 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.3%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead demand in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons. In 2025, global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy has a negative impact on the lead - battery demand in the automotive industry [46][47]. - **Lead - battery consumption is in the off - season, and sectors are differentiated**: In May, lead - battery enterprises maintained the characteristics of the seasonal off - season, with the five - province battery enterprise operating rate at 70.45% at the end of May. The production of electric - bicycle and automotive lead - battery markets changed little, while the operating rate of energy - storage battery enterprises was relatively good. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the operating rate may rebound slightly but will remain in the range of 70 - 73% [54]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports**: In April 2025, the refined lead export volume was 3,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.09% and a year - on - year increase of 15.54%. The refined lead import volume in April was 4,734 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3496.9% and a month - on - month increase of 65.1%. The lead - battery export volume in April was 2.0463 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and a month - on - month increase of 8.3%. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to battery exports [55]. - **Policy guidance improves the lead - battery consumption prospect marginally**: In the terminal demand of lead - batteries, automotive and electric - bicycle batteries account for a large proportion. In the automotive sector, the lead - battery demand is strong, with both replacement and new - car supporting demands increasing. In the electric - bicycle sector, policies such as trade - in and the new national standard are beneficial to lead - battery consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the market scale is growing, and lead - battery demand also has growth potential [69][70][71]. 2.4 Overseas Inventory First Decreases and Then Increases, and There is Pressure on Domestic Inventory Accumulation - In May, LME inventory first decreased and then increased. By May 30, the inventory was 284,200 tons, a monthly increase of 20,000 tons. The domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased. By May 29, the inventory was 49,400 tons, a monthly increase of 4,600 tons. In June, inventory is expected to rise again, but the accumulation volume is limited [76][78]. 3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The supply - demand imbalance of lead concentrate remains unchanged. In June, the domestic and overseas processing fees decreased slightly. The electrolytic lead production in May increased month - on - month but was slightly lower than expected, and it decreased in June. The recycled lead production decreased significantly in May and increased in June, but the resumption rhythm is restricted by raw material supply and profitability. The demand for electric - bicycle and automotive lead - batteries remains in the off - season, while the energy - storage battery demand is supported. The Shanghai - London ratio has limited boost to lead ingot exports. In the long - term, policy supports consumption, but the demand growth rate is stable but not strong. Overall, the supply pressure increases marginally, and lead prices are expected to oscillate widely [80].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-23 现货成交偏淡 铅价震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-05-22，LME铅现货升水为-26.12美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-100元/吨至16625 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -100元/吨至-15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-100 元/吨至16675元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至16600元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-100元/吨至16650元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化-100元/吨至10200元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-100元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-100元/吨 至10400元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-22，沪铅主力合约开于16895元/吨，收于16685元/吨，较前一交易日变化-215元/吨，全天交易 日成交42980手，较前一交易日变化22116手，全天交易日持仓45301手，手较前一交易日变化28537手，日内价格 震荡，最高点达到16 ...

据SMM讯，昨日SMM1#铅价较上一交易日下跌75元/吨。河南地区持货商报价对SMM 1#铅贴水25元/吨，或对沪期 铅2506合约贴水180-170元/吨出厂；湖南地区冶炼厂报价对SMM1#铅均价贴水30元/吨刚需成交，贸易商报价对沪 铅2506合约贴水200元/吨；安徽、江西地区冶炼厂挺价出货，报价对SMM1#铅均价升水100-150元/吨出厂；广东地 区持货商厂提货源对SMM1#铅均价升水0-50元/吨成交。铅价持续走弱，小部分下游企业逢低采购外，多数企业仍 以刚需采购为主，现货市场较昨日稍有好转。 库存方面：2025-05-20，SMM铅锭库存总量为5.9万吨，较上周同期变化0.30万吨。截止5月20日，LME铅库存为245750 吨，较上一交易日变化-600吨。 策略 绝对价格：中性 目前国内矿端供应仍然相对偏紧，但冶炼厂对高银矿采购意愿同样低迷，当下市场处于供需两弱格局，但由于储 能电池板块表现突出，受益于移动基站、数据中心等需求支撑，相关企业开工率普遍达80-100%。行业对下半年预 期乐观，已有企业筹备产能扩张。当下铅价暂时以震荡思路对待，Pb2506合约区间在16,300元/吨至17,050 ...

策略 绝对价格：中性 目前国内矿端供应仍然相对偏紧，但冶炼厂对高银矿采购意愿同样低迷，当下市场处于供需两弱格局，但由于储 能电池板块表现突出，受益于移动基站、数据中心等需求支撑，相关企业开工率普遍达80-100%。行业对下半年预 期乐观，已有企业筹备产能扩张。当下铅价暂时以震荡思路对待，Pb2506合约区间在16,300元/吨至17,050元/吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-20 下游备货积极性较差 铅价震荡回落 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-05-19，LME铅现货升水为-4.45美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16725元 /吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 75元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨 至16750元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16700元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化-25元/吨至16800元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化75元/ 吨至10375元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10225元/吨 ...

研究报告 铅周报 铅供给有所增加，沪铅或以震荡趋势运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，沪铅期货主力合约 PB2506 价格以震荡行情为主。价格 范围在 16835 元/吨附近至 17050 元/吨左右。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 19 日星期一 中美互降关税落地后，关税政策调整对铅价的影响正在逐步 减弱。铅现货价格小幅回升，铅贴水有所扩大。铅加工费从底部 逐步回升，但仍然处于底部区域。铅产量持续增长，铅企业开工 率逐步攀升。电动自行车产量保持增长，铅蓄电池需求或增长。 沪铅库存大幅上升，库存水平处于近年来低位。LME 铅库存持续 下降，库存水平处于近年来高位。 【后市展望】 铅价或以震荡趋势为主。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铅供给变化 超预期。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明： ...

铅周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 供需呈现双弱 铅价震荡盘整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价围绕万七波动。宏观面看，特朗普 对华关税态度缓和，同时美联储释放降息言论，市场 情绪修复，基本面定价权重略提升。 要点 基本面看，铅矿进口开启，进口货源补充下，铅矿供 应紧张程度有限，加工费多维稳，高富含的矿源较抢 手。废旧电瓶供应不足，回收商惜售，价格延续上涨 ...