沪铜周报（8.18~8.22） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡下跌，沪铜主力合约下跌0.47%，收报于78690元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美 国关税再起波澜，全球不稳定因素仍存。国内方面，消费进入淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产 业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存155975吨，上周变化不 大，上期所铜库存较上周减4663吨至81698吨。 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | 中国年度供 ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦铜库存呈区间波动状态，整体变化不大，最新库存水 平为155,800吨。 上周，纽铜库存继续累积，最新库存水平为267,195吨，增至2004年1月下旬以来新高。 2023年以来三大交易所铜库存对比 | 以下为2025年8月以来三大交易所铜库存数据：（单位：吨） | | --- | 上海期货交易所最新公布数据显示，8月15日当周，沪铜库存继续回升，周度库存增加5.4%至86,361 吨，增至一个半月新高。国际铜库存增加123吨至10,967吨。 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 | 日期 | COMEX | LME | SHFE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/15 | 267, 195 | 155, 800 | 86, 361 | | 2025/8/14 | 266, 804 | 155, 850 | | | 2025/8/13 | 266, 795 | 155, 875 | | | 2025/8/12 | 265, 889 | 155, 000 | | | 2025/8/11 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract closing up 0.73% at 79,060 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still global uncertainties. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons. The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025 [3][11]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情回顾 - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract closing up 0.73% at 79,060 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still global uncertainties. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons [3]. 基本面（库存结构） - PMI: No specific content provided [7][9]. - Supply - demand balance: The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. A detailed China annual supply - demand balance table from 2018 - 2024 is provided [11][14]. - Inventory: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 市场结构 - Processing fee: The processing fee is at a low level [22]. - CFTC position: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out [24]. - Spot - futures price difference: No specific content provided [27]. - Import profit: No specific content provided [30]. - Warehouse receipt: No specific content provided [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, the traditional domestic consumption off - season has suppressed downstream demand, and the inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad fluctuates, suggesting that the Shanghai copper price may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,580, up 250 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,792 lots, a decrease of 19,597 lots; the open interest was 159,866 lots, a decrease of 3,692 lots; the inventory was 18,767 tons, a decrease of 1,581 tons. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 78,615, up 195 [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on August 5, 2025, was 9,634.5, down 74 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 153,850; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 67.32, down 14.59; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 142.61, down 3.38 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 5, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.3795, down 0.06; the total inventory weight was 262,190, an increase of 2,509 [2]. News and Information - **Company News**: Zangge Mining's Julong Copper Mine Phase II project is expected to be completed and put into production by the end of 2025, with an annual copper output of about 300,000 - 350,000 tons. Codelco, the world's largest copper miner, has stopped the mining operation of its flagship El Teniente copper mine due to an accident and postponed its quarterly earnings release [2]. - **Trade News**: Affected by US tariffs on copper semi - finished products, domestic copper processing exports to the US are under pressure. A copper tube enterprise's goods arriving in the US on August 5 were subject to an additional 50% tariff, with a comprehensive tariff of 97% [2]. - **Industry News**: Japan's Mitsubishi Materials may partially shut down its refinery due to falling copper concentrate processing and smelting fees (TC/RCs), while Chinese smelters maintain record - high production [2]. Industry Operation - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China has increased compared to last week, leading to an increase in the operating rate of China's refined copper (recycled copper rod) production capacity. The raw material and finished - product inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has increased, while that of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased. The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production capacity has decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory has increased. The operating rate and order volume of China's copper enameled wire have increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days have decreased. The operating rate and production volume of China's copper strip have increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days have decreased. The operating rate of China's copper tube has decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days have remained flat. The operating rate of China's brass rod has decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days have decreased [2]. - In August, the operating rate of domestic copper processing enterprises may be affected by the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod, copper strip, and brass rod may increase month - on - month, while those of recycled copper rod, copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper foil, and copper tube may decrease [2]. Trading Strategy It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels: Shanghai copper at 74,000 - 76,000 and 80,000 - 81,000; London copper at 9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200; US copper at 4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0 [2].

Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a rise in copper inventory to a near two-year high, followed by a decline to 139,575 tons this week [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated a 1.2% decrease in copper inventory, reaching a seven-month low of 72,543 tons as of August 1 [1] - International copper inventory decreased by 772 tons to 10,844 tons [1] - COMEX copper inventory increased to 261,180 tons, marking the highest level since February 2004 [1] Inventory Trends - LME copper inventory increased from 141,750 tons on August 1 to 139,575 tons, showing a downward trend [4] - SHFE copper inventory decreased from 73,423 tons on July 25 to 72,543 tons on August 1, indicating a consistent decline [4] - COMEX copper inventory rose from 259,681 tons on August 1 to 261,180 tons on August 4, reflecting an upward trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and consolidated. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.04% to close at 78,400 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still many global uncertainties. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 141,750 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons compared with the previous week [4]. - The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is tight, while it will be in surplus in 2025 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.04% to close at 78,400 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were many global uncertainties. Domestic consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. Domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory increased slightly, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **PMI**: No specific data or analysis provided [10]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, the supply - demand of copper is in tight balance, and it will be in surplus in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [12][15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 141,750 tons, showing a slight increase last week. SHFE copper inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons compared with the previous week. Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [4][16][19]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is at a low level [23]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [25]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific data or analysis provided [28]. - **Import Profit**: No specific data or analysis provided [31]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific data or analysis provided.

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased due to slower-than-expected US job growth in July and a weaker dollar, leading traders to bet on potential Fed rate cuts [1] - As of August 1, LME three-month copper rose by $19.5, or 0.2%, closing at $9,630.5 per ton [2] - The US copper market stabilized after a significant drop, with Comex copper prices recovering by 1.6% to $4.423 per pound, or $9,751 per ton [3] Group 2 - Comex copper inventories surged by 176% from March to July, reaching a 21-year high of 233,977 tons [3] - LME available stocks more than doubled in July, hitting a three-month high of 127,475 tons [4] - The premium of Comex copper over LME prices has limited the outflow of US inventories, with the premium decreasing significantly from historical highs [5] Group 3 - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine is facing reduced copper extraction operations due to an accident, although processing facilities remain operational [5]

Core Insights - COMEX copper has stabilized after a significant drop of 22%, raising questions about whether this is a bear trap or a "dead cat bounce" [1] - The substantial copper inventory accumulated in the U.S. may pose a risk, potentially acting as a "ticking time bomb" for the market [1] Group 1 - The recent 22% decline in COMEX copper prices has led to speculation about market dynamics and potential recovery patterns [1] - Analysts are debating the implications of the current copper inventory levels in the U.S., which could influence future price movements [1]

Core Insights - The conclusion of the U.S. copper import tax saga raises questions about whether the copper market will revert to a "supply-demand hell" scenario [1] - U.S. copper inventories have reached a 21-year high, which is expected to impact global markets significantly [1] Group 1 - The end of the copper import tax in the U.S. may lead to increased volatility in the copper market [1] - The high levels of copper inventory in the U.S. could disrupt global supply chains and pricing dynamics [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and consolidated, with the main contract rising 1.27% to close at 79,250 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues disturbed copper prices, and global uncertainties remained high. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 128,475 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons compared with the previous week [4]. - The copper market was in a tight balance in 2024 and would be in surplus in 2025 [11]. 3) Summary by Directory a. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.27% to 79,250 yuan/ton. Geopolitical and US tariff factors affected copper prices, and domestic consumption entered the off - season. Industrial spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory increased slightly, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons [4]. b. Fundamentals - **PMI**: No specific content provided. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The copper market was in a tight balance in 2024 and would be in surplus in 2025. The 2018 - 2024 China annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [11][14]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 128,475 tons with a slight increase last week, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons. Exchange inventory was in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][15][19]. c. Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees were at a low level [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [24]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content provided. - **Import Profit**: No specific content provided. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No specific content provided.