Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the SHFE main contract rose from 92,430 yuan/ton on March 19th to 95,750 yuan/ton on March 25th, an increase of 1,840 yuan/ton (1.96%). The basis weakened as the discount of premium copper deepened from -15 yuan/ton to -65 yuan/ton [1][31]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: On March 24th, the LME copper position increased by 406 lots, indicating a slight expansion of the position [1][31]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Mitsubishi Materials will stop the Onahama copper smelter in 2027, reducing short - term supply. Rio Tinto is advancing the Resolution copper mine project but may export concentrates. The Hebei copper mine census project started on March 23rd, potentially increasing long - term supply. The rising fuel price in Chile has pushed up the operating cost of open - pit mines and compressed miners' profits [2][31]. - **Demand Side**: The demand in the power sector is strong, with the national power generation installed capacity from January to February increasing by 15.9% year - on - year. The solar and wind power installations increased by 33.2% and 22.8% respectively. The automotive and consumer electronics sectors support growth, but short - term downstream procurement is cautious [2][31]. - **Inventory Side**: LME inventory decreased from 274,115 tons on March 19th to 252,111 tons on March 25th, a reduction of 10,599 tons, showing a de - stocking trend. SHFE inventory increased from 347,475 tons to 360,175 tons, an increase of 900 tons, reflecting inventory accumulation pressure. COMEX inventory changed little [2][31]. Price Trend Judgment - The copper futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side changes drive the market as smelter closures reduce short - term supply and rising costs may limit output expansion. The demand - side changes provide support from the growth in the power, automotive, and electronics sectors, but cautious downstream procurement restricts the upside. The macro - sentiment is affected by the new delivery warehouse of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which enhances market liquidity confidence, but fuel cost pressure brings uncertainty. The copper price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 95,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton [3][32][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Options: Sell put options as the main strategy [8] 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, copper prices are oscillating downward. The macro - level is suppressed by the Israel - Iran conflict and the strengthening of the US dollar. The fundamental aspect shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. The acceleration of downstream resumption of work drives the recovery of demand, and the spot discount is steadily repaired. However, the current social inventory of electrolytic copper is significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the supply - side pressure persists, restricting the upward movement of prices. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory depletion rhythm and the sustainability of downstream orders. [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On March 9, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 100,250 yuan/ton and closed at 100,190 yuan/ton, a - 0.85% change from the previous trading day's closing. In the night session, it opened at 100,230 yuan/ton and closed at 101,160 yuan/ton, a 1.28% increase from the afternoon closing of the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 100 - a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2603 contract, with an average discount of 45 yuan/ton. The SHFE 2603 contract gapped lower at the opening and then rose, closing at 99,830 yuan/ton. The contango spread between months was 310 - 170 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 350 - 210 yuan/ton. The procurement and sales sentiment in Shanghai slightly improved. The quotes of flat - copper, high - grade copper, and wet - process copper were differentiated in the morning. In the afternoon, holders raised their quotes, and the trading improved. As the delivery approaches, the spot discount is expected to narrow steadily. The downstream's bargain - hunting purchases support the market, but the high inventory restricts the repair space. It is expected that the discount will continue to narrow today [3] 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical - On May 20, domestic banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, etc. adjusted the RMB deposit interest rate table. The current deposit rate was lowered by 0.05 percentage points to 0.05%. The listed interest rates of time deposits of various terms were lowered by 0.15 - 0.25 percentage points [4] 3.2.2 Mining End - On March 6, Canadian mining developer Troilus Mining Corp. plans to issue sub - debt and other potential non - equity instruments to raise funds for its gold - copper project in Quebec. The new financing scale is expected to be between $3 billion and $4 billion and is expected to be announced within a few weeks. After the debt issuance, the funds raised by the company for restarting the mine in north - central Quebec will increase to about $1.5 billion. So far, Troilus has obtained up to $1 billion in financing from institutions such as KfW, Société Générale, and Export Development Canada for restarting the mine project, which will also produce copper as a by - product. In addition, the company sold C$173 million (about $126 million) of stocks in November last year to further supplement project funds [5] 3.2.3 Smelting and Import - On March 9, LME copper inventory accelerated its accumulation last week, with the latest inventory at 284,325 tons, hitting a new high in over a year. SHFE copper inventory continued to accumulate in the week of March 6, with a weekly increase of 8.59% to 425,145 tons, reaching a new high. The international copper inventory increased by 36 tons to 20,772 tons. The New York copper inventory first increased and then decreased, with the latest inventory at 597,938 tons [5] 3.2.4 Consumption - On March 9, the IEA stated that aluminum is a viable alternative to copper for the power industry to reduce raw material costs. The IEA predicts that under the STEPS, the global grid's copper demand will increase from 5 million tons in 2020 to 7.5 million tons in 2040, and aluminum demand will increase from 9 million tons to 12.8 million tons; under the SDS, copper demand will approach 10 million tons in 2040, and aluminum demand will rise to 16 million tons, and the demand for both will maintain a similar annual growth rate [6] 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,125 tons to 294,250 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 3,599 tons to 319,087 tons. On March 9, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 578,900 tons, a change of 17,000 tons from the previous week [6] 3.3 Strategy - For copper, it is recommended to conduct corresponding buying and selling hedging operations in the range of 100,000 yuan/ton to 103,000 yuan/ton. When the price approaches the upper and lower limits of the range, appropriately increase or decrease the proportion of buying and selling hedging [8] - For options, the main strategy is to sell put options [8]

Core Viewpoint - The main copper futures contracts in both Shanghai and international markets experienced a significant increase of 4% in a single day, indicating strong market momentum for copper prices [1][1]. Group 1 - The Shanghai copper main contract rose to 105,730.00 yuan per ton [1]. - The international copper main contract increased to 93,560.00 yuan per ton [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The copper market is currently experiencing pessimistic sentiment and weak prices, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 98,580, down 4.92% during the day, and 100,820 at night, up 2.27%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,900, down 1.30% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 865,268, a decrease of 611,602 from the previous day, and the open interest was 604,349, a decrease of 53,190. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 49,201, a decrease of 2,097, and the open interest was 327,000, a decrease of 5,073 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper futures inventory was 158,527, an increase of 1,676 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 174,675, a decrease of 300. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 21.68%, a decrease of 2.21% [1] - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads, including LME copper spreads, warehouse warrant premiums, bill premiums, and spot - futures spreads, showed different degrees of change compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US January ISM manufacturing index rose to 52.6, the highest since 2022, indicating a substantial expansion of the US manufacturing industry. The US January employment report will not be released on time due to a partial government shutdown [1] - **Industry News**: Zambia's copper production in 2025 was about 890,346 tons, an increase of 8% compared to 2024. Chile's Antofagasta's 2025 copper production was lower than its production guidance, Glencore's 2025 copper production decreased by 11%, and Southern Copper expects its copper production to decline in the next two years. Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 540,221 tons. Canada's Capstone Copper has resumed operations at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile despite a union strike [1][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 2: Report's Core View - Copper prices are under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar [1] - The copper trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main - contract was 100,770 with a daily decline of 1.75%, and the night - session closing price was 103,660 with a night - session increase of 2.87%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price was 12,809 with a daily decline of 2.59%. Trading volumes and open interests of both Shanghai Copper index and LME Copper 3M decreased compared to the previous day. Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 2,300 to 160,417, while LME Copper inventory increased by 2,450 to 143,575, and the LME Copper注销仓单 ratio decreased by 0.97% to 34.53% [1] - **Spot Data**: Various spot price spreads changed compared to the previous day. For example, the LME Copper premium increased by 23.92 to 61.52, while the Shanghai 1 bright copper price decreased by 400 to 89,500 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The hottest candidate for the Fed Chairperson has changed. Trump hopes Hassett to continue as a White House advisor, and Hassett says he will defend the Fed's independence if in charge. Trump has postponed the decision to attack Iran and is sending more troops to the Middle East [1] - **Industry**: Codelco's copper production in November decreased by 3% year - on - year to 130,900 tons. The US government may lift the mining ban in northern Minnesota, potentially reviving a major mining project. Codelco submitted a $1.3 - billion plan to extend the life of Radomiro Tomic copper mine to 2058. State Grid's fixed - asset investment during the "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the "14th Five - Year Plan". Ivanhoe Mines achieved its 2025 copper and zinc production targets [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic copper futures contract has increased by over 2%, currently priced at 105,350.00 CNY per ton, while the international copper futures contract has surged by 2.18%, now at 93,780.00 CNY per ton, reflecting a rise of 2,000.00 CNY [1][1]. Group 1 - The domestic copper futures contract has risen over 2% [1] - The current price of the domestic copper futures contract is 105,350.00 CNY per ton [1] - The international copper futures contract has increased by 2.18% [1] Group 2 - The current price of the international copper futures contract is 93,780.00 CNY per ton [1] - The international copper futures contract has surged by 2,000.00 CNY [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The reduction in LME copper inventory restricts the decline in copper prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main - contract was 87,300 with a daily increase of 0.33%, and the night - session closing price was 86,970 with a decline of 0.38%. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading price was 10,819 with a decline of 0.67% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 275,726, a decrease of 168,902 from the previous day, and the open interest was 585,875, a decrease of 7,728. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic - trading was 15,544, a decrease of 5,193, and the open interest was 334,000, a decrease of 11,593 [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 40,066, an increase of 356, and the LME copper inventory was 133,600, a decrease of 1,025. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 8.33%, a decrease of 1.63% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread increased by 6.95 to - 14.44. The Shanghai copper spot - to - futures near - month spread decreased by 5 to - 5, and the near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread decreased by 60 to - 40 [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Macroeconomic News**: The US October ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months. The euro - zone October manufacturing PMI was 50, with Germany and France in continuous contraction [1]. - **Industry News**: Glencore's copper production decreased by 17% in the first three quarters due to lower ore grades. Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental approval for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter. Indonesia granted Amman Mineral International a 400,000 - ton copper - concentrate export quota. Chile's September copper production was 456,663 tons, a 7.79% month - on - month increase and a 4.5% year - on - year decrease [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices experienced narrow fluctuations, opening at $10,929.5 per ton and currently trading at $10,947.0 per ton, reflecting a 0.27% increase [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $10,970 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $10,927 per ton [1] Group 2 - On October 30, LME copper futures opened at $11,123.0, peaked at $11,125.5, and closed at $10,924.0, marking a decrease of 2.09% [2] - Indonesian copper miner AMMAN MINERAL reported a copper concentrate production of 310,143 tons and cathode copper production of 41,052 tons with sales of 39,805 tons for the first nine months [2] - As of October 30, the LME registered warehouse receipts totaled 120,725 tons, with canceled receipts at 14,225 tons, a reduction of 450 tons, and total copper inventory at 134,950 tons, down by 400 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain volatile at current high levels. The supply - side contraction in mineral copper output is offset by the increase in recycled copper. On the demand side, domestic infrastructure provides support while overseas demand is weak. The continuous destocking of LME at the macro level supports prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level shock range of 84,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [6][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - The price of SHFE's main copper contract closed at 85,530 yuan/ton on October 20, showing an upward trend. The LME copper price dropped to $10,611/ton on October 17. The LME (0 - 3) contango widened from -$11.16/ton to -$16.83/ton, indicating increased overseas spot supply pressure [1] - From October 14 to 20, LME copper inventory decreased by 3,090 tons to 41,319 tons, a decrease of 7.0%, with the overseas destocking speed accelerating. SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, remaining stable overall [2] 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Overseas mine disruptions continued. MMG's Las Bambas mine in Peru lost about 90,000 tons of copper resources due to illegal mining. Zijin Mining's third - quarter mineral copper output decreased by 6% quarter - on - quarter, tightening short - term supply. Although the import of recycled copper raw materials continued to grow, the import of anode copper decreased by 32.84% year - on - year, and there were still structural contradictions in refined copper supply [3] - **Demand Side**: Domestic demand was differentiated. The import of copper foil in the power sector increased by 7.28% year - on - year, and the import of copper alloys increased by 12.37% month - on - month. However, the export of copper enameled wire to the US and Indonesia declined year - on - year, showing weak demand in some overseas markets. The spot market was suppressed by high copper prices, and the concentrated arrival of imported copper further restricted the premium space [4] - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventory continued the destocking trend. LME inventory dropped to 41,319 tons, a three - month low. Domestic SHFE inventory slightly decreased but remained at a high level of 137,000 tons. The increase in the arrival of imported copper may put pressure on subsequent inventory. The increase in the import of recycled copper raw materials may ease the supply gap of refined copper to some extent [5] 3.1.3 Market Summary - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain volatile at current high levels. The supply - side contraction in mineral copper output is offset by the increase in recycled copper. On the demand side, domestic infrastructure provides support while overseas demand is weak. The continuous destocking of LME at the macro level supports prices [6] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 20, the price of SMM's 1 copper was 85,990 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.24% compared to October 14. The price of SHFE was 85,530 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.05%. The LME price on October 17 was $10,611/ton [8] - The premium of premium copper remained stable at 95 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - water copper increased by 16.67% to 35 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - process copper increased by 12.50% to - 35 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) contango widened [8] - From October 14 to 20, LME inventory decreased by 1,530 tons to 41,319 tons, a decrease of 3.57%. SHFE inventory decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, a decrease of 0.04%. COMEX inventory data on October 17 was 345,581 short tons [8] 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][11][14] 3.4 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The SHFE main contract price increased slightly, while the LME price decreased slightly. The basis weakened, indicating increased spot pressure. LME inventory decreased, while SHFE inventory decreased slightly and COMEX inventory increased slightly [34][35] - On the supply side, the decrease in Zijin Mining's third - quarter output and the loss of copper in MMG's Peruvian mine may affect supply. Although anode copper imports decreased, recycled copper imports increased, showing diversified supply [35] - On the demand side, copper foil and copper alloy imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Copper enameled wire exports to the US and Indonesia were weak. The domestic spot market was suppressed by high prices [35] - Overall inventory pressure was not large, but attention should be paid to subsequent imports. Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock range of 84,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [35][36]

Group 1 - The main copper futures contract in Shanghai opened with a slight increase, with the intraday decline narrowing to 2.07%, currently reported at 85,040.00 CNY/ton [1] - The international copper futures contract also saw its intraday decline narrow to 2.00%, currently reported at 75,600.00 CNY/ton [1]