《2049：未来10000天的可能》 （美）凯文·凯利（著） 吴晨（编） 中信出版集团 2025年6月出版 科技将如何重塑我们的生活？——读《2049：未来10000天的可能》 ◎南 芃 你能想象吗？今天不离手的智能手机，可能有一天会悄然退场。《2049：未来10000天的可能》这本书 预测，在未来10000天后的世界，智能手机将被智能眼镜取代。而当数十亿人戴上这些智能眼镜时，他 们看到的是现实世界与虚拟世界的叠加，未来的世界将是一个数字孪生的镜像世界。 本书作者凯文·凯利是《连线》杂志创始主编，他的代表作《失控》被誉为"本世纪对西方世界产生巨大 影响的最重要的著作之一"，曾影响了包括乔布斯在内的一代互联网创业者。本书的编著者吴晨，是 《经济学人·商论》原总编辑。本书起源于凯利在《5000天后的世界》一书的中文版出版后，希望与吴 晨合作，展望比5000天更远的世界，尤其希望立足中国视角，去思考科技所带来的变革。 作者在书中以2049年为时间节点，展望了人工智能、脑机接口等前沿技术将如何塑造未来的社会与生 活。 需要特别指出的是，本书并不是一本科幻小说，它是基于现实的三个模型展开的理性想象： 第一个预测模型是观 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Kelly predicts significant technological advancements in the next 25 years, including brain-computer interfaces, space exploration, personalized medicine, and the rise of artificial intelligence as a foundational infrastructure [5][6][28]. Group 1: Technological Innovations - Brain-computer interfaces will be achievable within 25 years without surgery, using non-invasive methods like a special hat [6][7]. - China is likely to return to the moon before the US and Elon Musk, indicating a lead in manned lunar capabilities [8][9]. - Personalized medicine will emerge, allowing for drugs tailored to specific genetic profiles, enhancing treatment effectiveness [10][11]. Group 2: Future of Communication and Interaction - The next generation of technology will replace smartphones with a "mirror world" accessed through special glasses, integrating virtual and real-world experiences [12][13]. - AI will become a basic infrastructure, with most value derived from how users interact with AI rather than from the AI itself [19][20]. Group 3: Food and Sustainability - Lab-grown meat will become affordable and widely available, eliminating the need for traditional animal farming and addressing ethical concerns [14][15][16]. Group 4: Global Positioning and Soft Power - China has the potential to become a leading global power by producing high-quality products and fostering a desirable culture, enhancing its soft power [17][18]. Group 5: The Role of Trust in AI - Trust will become a core competitive advantage in the workplace, as AI takes over tasks but humans remain responsible for the work [21][22][23]. Group 6: Education and Learning - The ability to learn how to learn will be crucial in the future, with a focus on teaching critical thinking and effective questioning skills [24][25][26].

Core Insights - Apple CEO Tim Cook stated that Apple Vision Pro aims to usher in the era of spatial computing, similar to how the iPhone revolutionized mobile computing, but it has not yet achieved the same level of impact as the iPhone [1] - Despite Apple Vision Pro's current status, the spatial computing market is gaining traction with multiple companies, including Samsung and Google, accelerating their investments in this area [1][2] Group 1: Product Comparisons - Samsung and Qualcomm, in collaboration with Google, have launched the Galaxy XR headset, which is the first to feature the Android XR operating system, positioning it as a lighter and more affordable alternative to Apple Vision Pro [2][4] - The Galaxy XR headset weighs 545g compared to Apple Vision Pro's 750-800g, and it features a Snapdragon XR2+ Gen 2 chip, 16GB RAM, and 256GB storage, with a battery life of 2.5 hours [7][14] - The Galaxy XR integrates AI capabilities and Google's Gemini system, allowing users to run all Android applications and utilize AI for enhanced functionality, which Apple Vision Pro currently lacks [8][14] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The launch of Android XR and the Galaxy XR headset marks a significant milestone in the spatial computing era, similar to the introduction of Android smartphones, as it opens the door for more developers to create XR content [15] - Despite the advancements, the XR market remains niche, requiring a larger user base and developer engagement to thrive, as highlighted by a developer's concerns about profitability and user adoption [18][21] - The competition between Apple and the Android XR ecosystem will hinge on the ability to integrate and iterate technology effectively, with Apple currently having an edge in resource mobilization and chip development [20][21]

Group 1 - The event "2025 Hangzhou Future Life Carnival" highlighted the need for Hangzhou to cultivate more innovative startups, referred to as "little dragons" [1] - Kevin Kelly, a renowned technology futurist, emphasized that the future technological visions he described, such as "mirror world" and "embodied intelligence," are being realized by local entrepreneurs in Hangzhou [1] - The open and inclusive environment in Hangzhou is attracting numerous startups, as noted by Rokid's CEO, who believes that success requires a society that embraces risk and failure [2] Group 2 - Style3D, a company providing comprehensive digital solutions for over 2,000 fashion enterprises, underscores the importance of building an industrial ecosystem for mutual support among businesses [2] - The emergence of AI-driven companies is anticipated, with a shift in problem-solving approaches focusing on capabilities rather than experience, as stated by the CEO of Precision Learning [2] - The presence of universities, talent, and technology in Hangzhou is crucial for the rise of new tech enterprises, with Zhejiang University playing a significant role in fostering innovation and entrepreneurship [2][4] Group 3 - China's innovation quality is reportedly improving year by year, nearing the world's top innovation levels, with expectations of a genuine innovation culture developing in the next five to ten years [3] - The innovation ecosystem in Hangzhou illustrates that innovation relies on a complete talent ecosystem rather than just individuals or institutions [4] - Embracing failure and questioning authority are essential for enhancing innovation capabilities in China [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses Kevin Kelly's insights on the future, emphasizing the importance of experience, open-mindedness, and selective learning from wise individuals [6][12][31] - Kelly predicts that the next 25 years will see significant trends, including the emergence of a "Mirror World" that seamlessly blends reality and virtuality, with smart glasses expected to surpass smartphone adoption [10][11] - The concept of "specialized AI" is introduced, suggesting that instead of achieving AGI, there will be numerous AI tools excelling in specific domains, preserving human value [12][13] Group 2 - The article outlines the trend of everyone having an AI personal assistant, which will transform decision-making and content consumption, leading to a shift from traditional marketing to AI-driven strategies [15][16] - Kelly highlights China's potential to become an "AI-driven ultimate information nation" due to its vast data resources, user habits, and talent pool [16] - AI is expected to reshape organizational structures, making them flatter and emphasizing the need for creativity and cross-disciplinary skills among the workforce [17][18] Group 3 - Education will be disrupted by AI, with a focus on nurturing curiosity and critical thinking in children rather than rote learning, while young adults are encouraged to pursue unique paths [19][20] - AI's role in healthcare is discussed, particularly in drug development, with the caveat that clinical trials remain a bottleneck [21][22] - The article mentions the anticipated growth of robotics and automation, with a prediction of two hundred million robots entering factories in the next decade [22][24] Group 4 - Kelly's conservative view on autonomous driving emphasizes the unpredictability of timelines, suggesting a focus on actual progress rather than speculative debates [24] - The potential for space exploration and related commercial opportunities is highlighted, indicating a future boom in space tourism and satellite internet [25] - Brain-machine interfaces are expected to advance rapidly, opening new avenues for human-machine interaction [26][28]

Core Insights - The launch of vivo's first mixed reality (MR) device, vivo Vision Explorer Edition, marks a significant entry into the spatial computing field, positioning the company as a pioneer among domestic smartphone manufacturers [1][3][24] - The MR market is projected to grow substantially, with global market size expected to reach $72.4 billion in 2024 and $290.8 billion by 2028, indicating a strong potential for widespread adoption [5][24] - vivo aims to redefine user experience in MR by focusing on practical applications and user comfort, contrasting with Apple's Vision Pro, which has struggled in the market [7][10][12] Company Strategy - vivo's approach to MR is rooted in a 30-year legacy of technological accumulation, emphasizing the importance of user-centric design and functionality [1][16] - The company has established a "human factors laboratory" to optimize the comfort and usability of the vivo Vision Explorer Edition, ensuring it meets the needs of Chinese consumers [12][22] - vivo's strategy includes not only hardware development but also the creation of a diverse content ecosystem, aiming to integrate MR with future robotics applications [21][24] Market Context - The MR industry is at a pivotal moment, with the potential to transition from niche applications to mainstream consumer products, similar to the evolution of PCs and smartphones [4][18] - The current MR landscape is characterized by a lack of compelling consumer applications, which vivo aims to address by offering high-frequency use cases such as immersive video, gaming, and multitasking capabilities [8][10] - The competition in the MR space is intensifying, with vivo positioning itself to lead the charge in the domestic market, challenging the perception that Chinese brands are merely alternatives to Apple [7][24] Future Outlook - vivo envisions the vivo Vision Explorer Edition as a stepping stone towards integrating MR technology with household robotics, addressing the growing demand for smart home solutions [18][21] - The company is committed to a long-term vision of technological evolution, focusing on user needs and pain points as the driving force behind its product development [22][24] - As the MR market matures, vivo's strategic initiatives are expected to contribute to the overall advancement of China's technology landscape, fostering innovation and collaboration across the industry [24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that while GPT-5 is receiving significant attention, the true focus should be on Google DeepMind's Genie 3, which represents a breakthrough in world modeling technology that could reshape the AI landscape [2][5]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The AI community is currently focused on GPT-5, but there is a risk of overlooking Genie 3, which is considered more significant [2]. World Model Definition - World models generate interactive and logically consistent environments, allowing users to explore and interact, unlike traditional video which is static and fixed [6]. Genie 3 Demonstration - Genie 3 can create a persistent world where changes made by users are retained, showcasing its ability to maintain logical consistency [9][11]. Disruptive Potential of World Models - World models could democratize high-quality content creation, significantly reducing costs in gaming and film production, and have potential applications in robot training [14][20]. Applications in Autonomous Driving - World models can generate training scenarios for autonomous vehicles, allowing for efficient data generation that adheres to physical laws, thus lowering training costs [15][19]. Relation to Metaverse and Mirror World - The advent of world models could lower the production costs associated with the metaverse, making it more feasible and aligning with the concept of mirror worlds that blend reality and virtuality [20]. Future Investment Opportunities - Companies and investors interested in autonomous driving, robotics, and immersive virtual experiences should closely monitor developments in world modeling technology, as it is seen as a key driver for these industries [22].

Group 1: Education - In the AI era, it is crucial to focus on experiential learning rather than traditional academic pressure for children, as many future job roles may not yet exist [6][7] - Parents are advised to cultivate foundational skills in children, such as curiosity, critical thinking, self-motivation, and learning ability, rather than merely accumulating knowledge [6][7] Group 2: Young Adults' Career Choices - Young adults should aim to be "unique" rather than just "better" than their peers, as the future will favor those who can solve problems in innovative ways [7] - The job market will increasingly reward specialization and differentiation over standardization, making niche expertise more valuable [7] Group 3: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) - The realization of AGI is deemed very difficult and unlikely to occur in the near future, with AI expected to remain specialized rather than universal [8][9] - Concerns about AI replacing human jobs are mitigated by the understanding that AI will not achieve comprehensive superiority across all fields [8][9] Group 4: Medical Advancements - The primary bottleneck in drug development is clinical trials, not the discovery of new drugs, indicating that AI's role in speeding up medical breakthroughs may be limited [11][12] - The future of gene editing and brain-machine interfaces is expected to initially benefit the wealthy, but technology will eventually become more accessible to the general population [12][13] Group 5: Autonomous Driving and Robotics - Progress in autonomous driving and robotics is anticipated to be slower than public expectations, with significant uncertainty regarding timelines for widespread adoption [14][15] - Continuous observation of technological advancements is recommended rather than making premature investments [14][15] Group 6: China's AI Opportunities - China is positioned favorably in the AI landscape due to its vast data resources, high talent density, and robust infrastructure in fields like healthcare and genetic sequencing [18] - The only significant shortcoming identified is in chip technology, but this is viewed as a temporary issue that can be resolved over time [18] Group 7: Future Methodology - The emphasis is on adapting to future changes rather than attempting to predict them, with a focus on continuous observation and timely decision-making [19][25] - The ability to respond to rapid changes and maintain curiosity and learning agility is highlighted as essential for success in the evolving landscape [25]

Group 1 - The article discusses Kevin Kelly's vision of a future shaped by AI, particularly in his new book "2049: The Possible 10,000 Days" [1][2] - Kelly emphasizes the concept of "alien intelligence" rather than AGI, suggesting that AI will coexist with humans as a different form of intelligence rather than a superior one [6][7][10] - The idea of a "mirror world" is introduced, which is a virtual dimension layered over reality, allowing for interaction and collaboration between humans and AI [16][17][18] Group 2 - Kelly expresses skepticism about the current AI models achieving AGI, arguing that intelligence is a complex compound requiring more than just scaling existing models [4][5][13] - He believes that the future will see a few dominant companies in the AI space due to network effects, leading to a natural monopoly [26][27] - The article highlights the potential for AI to enhance human creativity and collaboration, suggesting that human value will increase as AI takes over routine tasks [29][35][36] Group 3 - The discussion includes the importance of learning how to learn in an AI-driven future, emphasizing the need for lifelong learning and adaptability [41][42] - Kelly argues that human interaction will remain valuable, even in a world with advanced AI, as the essence of human presence becomes a rare commodity [35][38] - The article raises concerns about privacy and trust in AI systems, suggesting that people may willingly trade privacy for personalized services [38][39]

Group 1 - Kevin Kelly (KK) is recognized as a prominent futurist and author, known for works like "Out of Control," "The Inevitable," and "What Technology Wants" [1] - A deep conversation with KK will focus on future topics such as AI, mirror worlds, brain-computer interfaces, and education [1] - The audience is encouraged to submit questions for KK, which may include inquiries about consciousness uploading, the role of teachers in an AI-driven future, and the implications of genetic enhancement [1]