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集运早报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 00:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market opened high and moved low on Monday. In the morning, it might have been trading on the price support in mid - October (CMA price increase) and the suspension of the China - Europe Railway Express (with limited actual impact), and then the decline was likely affected by the falling spot prices. The basis for October was around 60 points, and the spread between October and December was - 560 (-20) [1]. - The price is still falling in early October. There is an expected price increase in late October, but under the suppression of the off - season, the expectation may not be well - realized, and it is more likely to stabilize. In the medium term, there are multiple upward drivers [1]. - The valuation of the December contract is not low. The 02 contract may have a higher cost - performance ratio for long - allocation than the December contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 contract may be higher. The current valuation of the 04 contract is also high, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - allocation in the short term, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to fluctuations. Therefore, the long - 02 and short - 04 spread trading can be considered. In addition, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by pre - holiday position reduction, and the risk of capital position transfer for the October contract with a large number of open positions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Information - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1093.7, 1653.9, 1573.6, 1275.0, and 1454.5 respectively, with changes of 4.11%, 1.47%, 0.71%, 2.00%, and 1.07%. The open interest of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 was 46030 (-1685), 21956 (-124), 7398 (122), 8922 (81), and 0 (-33) respectively [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 were - 560.2 and 80.3 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 19.3 and 12.8, and week - on - week changes of - 56.1 and - 21.4 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Information - **Spot Freight Indexes**: The SCHIC SCFI (European line) was 1440.24 dollars/TEU on September 15 and 1052 dollars/TEU on September 19, with decreases of 8.06% and 8.84% compared to the previous period. The CCFI was 1470.97 points on September 19, a decrease of 4.31% from the previous period. The NCFI was 673.61 points on September 19, a decrease of 7.65% from the previous period [1]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week 39 (End of September)**: The average quotation was 1600 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation was initially 1500 US dollars and then rose to 1570 US dollars. The PA Alliance's quotation was 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance's was 1600 - 1720 US dollars [2]. - **Weeks 40 - 41 (Early October)**: The average quotation was 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation was 1400 US dollars, the PA Alliance's was 1300 - 1500 US dollars (YML's 1300 US dollars was the lowest of the year), and the OA Alliance's was 1400 - 1600 US dollars [2]. - **Monday Changes**: OOCL's price dropped 50 to 1400 US dollars, and MSC's dropped 100 to 1490 US dollars. HPL - SPOT quoted 1435 for early October, 2035 for late October, and 2525 for November (HPL - SPOT's quotations usually fluctuate greatly and have limited reference value) [2]. 3.4 Related News - As of September 22, 2025, 157 out of 193 UN member states had recognized the State of Palestine. Israel stated that its war goal "is not limited to Gaza", and the rift in the Western world's consensus on Israel's policy was gradually widening [3].
集运指数日报-20250919
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 05:49
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has fallen below 1500 points for nine consecutive weeks, and online quotes in the second half of September have been further reduced. The decline in freight rates shows characteristics of a smooth downward trend in the off - season, and the decline has further expanded. There is a low - long opportunity in the December contract, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the SCFIS dropped below 1500 points for nine consecutive weeks. Online quotes in the second half of September were further reduced, with the lowest price breaking through $1600 per 40 - foot container. The price of major shipping companies showed a smooth downward trend in the off - season, and the decline expanded. The current empty - sailing scale is not significantly higher than last year, while the overall shipping capacity has increased. There may be an opportunity to go long in the December contract, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From September 8th to 12th, the China Export Container Shipping Market was basically stable, with freight rates falling on most routes, dragging down the comprehensive index. In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on September 12th was 1398.11 points, down 3.2% from the previous period. In the European route, China's exports to Europe increased by 10.4% year - on - year in August, and the trade volume with the EU in the first eight months increased by 4.3% year - on - year. In the Mediterranean route, the spot booking price continued to decline. In the North American route, the US employment market slowed down significantly, and China's exports to the US decreased by more than 30% year - on - year in August, but the market freight rates continued to rise. The Middle East situation has become tense again [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | 2025/9/15 | 2025/9/8 | Change | MoM (%) | |--|--|--|--|--| | SCFIS: European Route (Base Ports) | 1440.24 | 1566.46 | - 126.22 | - 8.1% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Base Ports) | 1349.84 | 980.48 | 369.36 | 37.7% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Trading data of container shipping European line futures on September 18th are provided, including contract details such as EC2510, EC2512, etc., with information on previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts include the container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European base port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][19]
集运指数日报-20250918
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 03:02
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the SCFIS dropped below 1500 points for nine consecutive weeks. Online quotes in the second half of September were further reduced, with the lowest price falling below $1600 per 40 - foot container. The price shows a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an increasing decline. There is currently no significant increase in blank sailings compared to last year, while the overall shipping capacity has increased. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: The SCFIS has been falling for nine consecutive weeks, dropping below 1500 points. Online quotes in the second half of September were further reduced, with large - container quotes from shipping companies showing a downward trend. For example, Maersk's quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the third and fourth weeks of September were $1669/GP and $1590/GP respectively, about $400 lower than in the first half of the month, and OOCL's quotes in the second half of the month were $1600 - 1700/GP, about $200 lower than before [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: As the current blank - sailing scale is not significantly higher than last year and the overall shipping capacity has increased, attention should be paid to whether blank - sailing efforts will be increased later to support the freight rate bottom. The tense situation in the Middle East may support far - month contracts. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **China's Export Container Shipping Market**: From September 8 to 12, the China Export Container Shipping Market was generally stable, with freight rates falling on most routes, dragging down the composite index. In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year in US dollars, showing the resilience and vitality of China's foreign trade. On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index was 1398.11 points, down 3.2% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: In August, China's exports to Europe increased by 10.4% year - on - year, and the trade volume between China and the EU in the first eight months increased by 4.3% year - on - year, accounting for 13.1% of China's total foreign trade. However, this week, there was no further growth in transportation demand, and the market freight rate continued to adjust. On September 12, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic European ports was $1154/TEU, down 12.2% from the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, with spot booking prices continuing to decline. On September 12, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic Mediterranean ports was $1738/TEU, down 11.8% from the previous period [9][10]. - **North American Routes**: In August, the US non - farm sector added 22,000 jobs, far lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. China's exports to the US in August decreased by more than 30% year - on - year. However, this week, transportation demand remained stable, driving the market freight rate up. On September 12, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and East were $2370/FEU and $3307/FEU respectively, up 8.3% and 7.6% from the previous period [10]. - **Middle East Tension**: Since September 8, the situation in the Middle East has become tense again. Israel has increased its attacks on the Gaza Strip, and there have been a series of attacks and counter - attacks. The tense situation may support far - month container shipping contracts [10]. 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **SCFIS for European Routes**: On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for European routes was 1440.24 points, down 126.22 points (- 8.1%) from September 8 [12]. - **SCFIS for US West Routes**: On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for US West routes was 1349.84 points, up 369.36 points (37.7%) from September 8 [12]. 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - **Futures Trading Data**: On September 17, for contracts such as EC2510, EC2512, etc., there were different changes in prices, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1109.7, a drop of 79.9 points (- 6.72%), with a trading volume of 43,546 and an open interest of 49,609, an increase of 2092 [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping futures contract trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe freight rates, etc., to visually display relevant data [13][17][19]
集运早报-20250916
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 02:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given documents. 2. Core View of the Report - Spot prices are still falling, but the decline is expected to slow down and gradually bottom out in October. The shipping company's Week 39 quote is 1550 - 1650 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the disk). The far - month futures prices have risen significantly, reflecting the expectation of a slower decline and multiple rounds of price increases in the future. The 10 - 12 spread is - 493.1, and the valuation of the December contract is relatively neutral to high. There are multiple upward drivers in the future, so the December contract is cautiously bullish. The Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), so the settlement price of the February 2026 contract may be higher, and its current valuation is low, with a higher cost - performance ratio for long positions compared to the December contract. To avoid the potential price - cutting risk of shipping companies in October, a long - February 2026/short - April 2026 spread trade can be considered. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 contracts are 1163.1, 1656.2, 1516.9, 1253.9, and 1431.9 respectively, with daily changes of 0.48%, 2.86%, 1.07%, 1.91%, and 1.52%. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2510, EC2512, and EC2602 contracts are 17803, 10786, and 1953 respectively, and the open interests are 47772, 19598, and 6330 respectively, with open interest changes of 161, 39, and 0. [1] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512 and EC2512 - 2602 are - 493.1 and 139.3 respectively, with daily changes of - 40.5 and 29.9, and weekly changes of - 78.9 and - 16.2. [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Spot Price Indexes**: The current spot price index is 1440.24, down 8.06% from the previous period. The SCFI (European Line) is 1154 US dollars/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period. The CCFI (European Line) is 1537.28 points, down 6.19% from the previous period. The NCFI (European Line) is 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period. [1] 3.3 Recent European Line Quotations - **Week 37**: The average quote is 2100 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the disk). MSK's quote is 1900 US dollars (later increased to 1950), PA's is 2100 - 2150, and OA's is 2100 - 2300. [2] - **Week 38**: The average quote is 1800 US dollars (equivalent to 1260 points on the disk). MSK's quote is 1700 US dollars (later increased to 1760), PA and MSC's are 1800 - 1950, and OA's is 1650 - 2020. [2] - **Week 39**: The average quote is 1550 - 1650 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the disk). MSK's quote is 1500 US dollars (later increased to 1560), PA Alliance's is 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and O4 Alliance's is 1600 - 1720 US dollars. [2]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250912
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 01:33
行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 12 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 每日报告 | | | 表1:集运欧线期货9月11日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,270.9 | 1,250.0 | 1,203.8 | 1,222.0 | -67.1 | -5.28 | 32766 | 49507 | 2187 | | EC2512 | 1,677.3 | 1,654.0 | 1,609.1 | 1,633.3 | -68.2 | -4.07 | 10 ...
建信期货集运指数日报-20250905
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:23
Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View - The SCFIS dropped below 1800 points in the current week, marking the seventh consecutive week of decline. Online quotes for the first half of September were further reduced, with the lowest price falling below $2000 per 40 - foot container. The price of the European route shows a characteristic of smooth decline in the off - season, and the decline exceeds market expectations, putting significant pressure on the October contract. However, the current main 10 - contract has a deep discount, with sufficient expectations for price cuts. The oversold rebound on Tuesday might be boosted by the expectation of increased empty sailings during the National Day. But since the scale of empty sailings this year has not significantly exceeded that of last year and the overall shipping capacity has actually increased, the boosting effect may not be strong enough. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The SCFIS has fallen below 1800 points for seven consecutive weeks. Online quotes in early September have been further reduced. The price of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route shows a smooth decline in the off - season, which puts pressure on the 10 - contract. The 10 - contract is deeply discounted, and the oversold rebound on Tuesday may be due to the expectation of increased National Day empty sailings. However, the boosting effect may be limited. The 10 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies, and there may be low - buying opportunities in December [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 25th to August 29th, the overall China export container shipping market was stable, with different routes showing divergent trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. The European route's market sentiment was weak, with the freight rate falling. The Mediterranean route followed the European route, with the freight rate dropping. The North American route's freight rate rebounded. There were also geopolitical events in the Middle East and the US's statement on the Palestinian issue [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for the European route decreased from 1990.2 on August 25th to 1773.6 on September 1st, a decrease of 10.9%. The index for the US - West route decreased from 1041.38 to 1013.9, a decrease of 2.6% [12]. 3.2 Futures Market for Container Shipping Index (European Route) - Provided trading data for EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on September 4th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6].
建信期货集运指数日报-20250904
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 03:48
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has dropped below 1800 points for seven consecutive weeks, and the online quotes in the first half of September have been further reduced, putting pressure on the October contract. However, the current main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and there was an oversold rebound on Tuesday, possibly boosted by the expectation of increased empty sailings during the National Day. But the scale of empty sailings this year has not significantly exceeded last year, and the overall shipping capacity has increased, so the boosting effect may not be strong. There may be low - buying opportunities for the December contract, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The SCFIS has been falling for seven consecutive weeks, and the online quotes in September have decreased. The price of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route shows a characteristic of smooth decline in the off - season, and the decline exceeds market expectations, bringing pressure to the October contract. The main 10 - contract has a deep discount and had an oversold rebound on Tuesday, possibly due to the expectation of increased National Day empty sailings. However, the boosting effect may be limited [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: There may be low - buying opportunities for the December contract, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: From August 25th to 29th, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with different routes showing different trends due to supply - demand fundamentals, and the composite index rose slightly [9] - **European Route**: In August, the euro - area economic sentiment index was lower than expected, consumer confidence and industrial indices declined. Shipping demand lacked growth momentum, and market freight rates continued to fall. On August 29th, the Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate was $1481/TEU, a 11.2% decrease from the previous period [9] - **Mediterranean Route**: The market situation was similar to the European route, with weak supply - demand fundamentals and falling spot booking prices. On August 29th, the Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate was $2145/TEU, a 3.6% decrease from the previous period [9] - **North American Route**: The US Markit manufacturing PMI in August reached the highest level since May 2022, showing strong economic performance, but there was inflation pressure. Shipping demand was stable, and market freight rates rebounded. On August 29th, the Shanghai - US West and East basic port market freight rates were $1923/FEU and $2866/FEU respectively, rising 17.0% and 9.7% from the previous period [10] - **Geopolitical News**: There were military conflicts in Yemen, with threats from the Houthi movement and Iran escalating. The US State Department held the PLO and Palestinian Authority responsible for undermining peace [10] 3. Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices** - On September 1, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1773.6, a 10.9% decrease from August 25th; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1013.9, a 2.6% decrease from August 25th [12] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market** - Provided trading data for EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on September 3, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts** - Included charts of Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping futures contract trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [13][17][21]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250903
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 05:03
Report Overview - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The SCFIS has fallen below 1800 points for seven consecutive weeks, and the online quotes in the first half of September have been further reduced. The price shows a characteristic of smooth decline in the off - season, putting pressure on the October contract. However, the current main October contract has a deep discount, and today's oversold rebound may be boosted by the expectation of adding empty sailings during the National Day. Attention should be paid to whether the marginal benefits will continue and materialize to help stabilize. The December contract may have low - buying opportunities, while the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The SCFIS has dropped below 1800 points for seven consecutive weeks, and the online quotes in early September have been further reduced. The price of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route shows a smooth decline in the off - season, exceeding market expectations and pressuring the October contract. The main October contract has a deep discount, and today's rebound may be due to the expectation of adding National Day empty sailings. The 10 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies, while the 12 - contract may have low - buying opportunities [8] 3.2 Industry News - From August 25th to 29th, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. The European and Mediterranean routes saw a decline in freight rates due to weak economic indicators and lack of demand growth momentum. The North American route had a rebound in freight rates as the US economy showed strong performance. There were also geopolitical events in the Middle East, including Israeli attacks on Houthi officials in Yemen, leading to threats of retaliation and an escalation of the conflict between Yemen and Iran. The US State Department made a statement regarding the Palestinian Authority [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on September 1, 2025, was 1773.6, down 216.6 (-10.9%) from August 25th. The SCFIS for the US - West route (basic ports) was 1013.9, down 27.48 (-2.6%) from August 25th [12] 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Multiple figures related to the container shipping index (European line) futures market are provided, including the trends of the main and secondary main contracts, shipping - related data such as European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates [17][21] 3.3.3 Trading Data of Container Shipping European Line Futures on September 2 | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change (%) | Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 1,293.8 | 1,290.2 | 1,340.7 | 1,364.5 | 46.9 | 3.62 | 77948 | 54157 | 1886 | | EC2512 | 1,621.9 | 1,640.9 | 1,733.5 | 1,755.1 | 111.6 | 6.88 | 28247 | 16673 | 178 | | EC2602 | 1,439.5 | 1,478.0 | 1,550.1 | 1,571.7 | 110.6 | 7.68 | 7124 | 5599 | 753 | | EC2604 | 1,230.5 | 1,220.0 | 1,246.9 | 1,273.6 | 16.4 | 1.33 | 3304 | 7199 | 130 | | EC2606 | 1,407.4 | 1,421.8 | 1,438.9 | 1,472.3 | 31.5 | 2.24 | 715 | 969 | 79 | | EC2608 | 1,599.5 | 1,635.0 | 1,603.1 | 1,648.1 | 3.6 | 0.23 | 153 | 298 | 24 | [6]
集装箱运输市场日报:期货标的降幅扩大,08合约交割-20250826
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 07:41
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Today, the prices of each monthly contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures first oscillated upwards and then returned to oscillation. As of the close, except for EC2606, the prices of each monthly contract of EC have rebounded. Affected by commodity sentiment, the futures price rebounded from a short - term low. Considering the current spot cabin quotes on the European line and the situation of the futures underlying, it is more likely that EC will continue to oscillate with a downward bias or maintain an oscillating trend [1] - The rise of the main commodity contracts is positive for the short - term sentiment of container shipping [2] - ONE has lowered its September European line quotes [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - For cabin management, if one has already obtained cabins but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about a decline in freight rates, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's cabin situation to lock in profits. For the EC2510 contract, the recommended selling entry range is 1450 - 1550 [1] - For cost management, if the shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and one hopes to book cabins according to the order situation, to prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. For the EC2510 contract, the recommended buying entry range is 1200 - 1300 [1] EC Contract Data - As of the close, from the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional holders on the exchange, for the EC2510 contract, the long positions increased by 614 lots to 28,928 lots, the short positions increased by 1393 lots to 32,916 lots, and the trading volume increased by 16,486 lots to 47,955 lots (bilateral). Today, the EC2508 contract was delivered, and the delivery settlement price was 2135.3 points, basically consistent with the final closing price of 2136.0 points [1] - On August 26, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2136.0 points, with a daily increase of 0.39% and a weekly increase of 2.29%; the closing price of EC2510 was 1358.0 points, with a daily increase of 3.74% and a weekly decrease of 1.10%; and so on for other contracts. There are also detailed data on price differences between different contracts [4] - On August 26, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was - 145.80 points, with a daily decrease of 8.30 points and a weekly decrease of 237.77 points; the basis of EC2510 was 632.20 points, with a daily decrease of 49.00 points and a weekly decrease of 174.87 points; and so on for other contracts [3] Spot Cabin Quotes - According to Geek Rate, on September 4, for Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam sailings, the total quote for 20GP was $1310, an increase of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2200, an increase of $10 compared to the previous period. In early September, for ONE's Shanghai - Rotterdam sailings, the total quote for 20GP was $1654, a decrease of $460 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2343, a decrease of $700 compared to the previous period [6] Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 1990.2 points, a decrease of 189.97 points or 8.71% compared to the previous value; the latest value of SCFIS for the US - West route was 1041.38 points, a decrease of 64.91 points or 5.87% compared to the previous value; and so on for other freight rate indices [7] Global Major Port Waiting Time - On August 25, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.452 days, a decrease of 0.112 days compared to the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.800 days, a decrease of 0.120 days compared to the previous day; and so on for other ports [13] Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity at Suez Canal - On August 25, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.872 knots, an increase of 0.094 knots compared to the previous day; the average speed of 3000 + container ships was 14.742 knots, a decrease of 0.09 knots compared to the previous day; the average speed of 1000 + container ships was 13.385 knots, an increase of 0.143 knots compared to the previous day. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 18, a decrease of 3 compared to the previous day [23]
永安期货集运早报-20250825
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for late August to early September (week 35 - 36). The final average price in week 35 was $2,550 (equivalent to 1,800 points), and in week 36, the current average quote is $2,250 (1,550 points). Most shipping companies face pressure to secure cargo at the end of the month, while MSK has relatively less pressure due to significant price cuts. [2][3][16][17] - The overall shipping capacity in September has been reduced due to the additional suspension of OA Alliance's FAL8 in week 37. The weekly average shipping capacity in September and October 2025 is 300,000 and 290,000 TEU respectively. The market situation in September is relatively loose, and the subsequent driving force remains weak. However, the valuation in October is approaching the annual low (1,250 - 1,300), with limited downside potential. Investors can consider long - positions in the December contract. [2][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2508 closed at 2,127.7 with a 0.13% increase; EC2510 at 1,309.0 with a 1.21% decrease; EC2512 at 1,661.2 with a 3.50% decrease; EC2602 at 1,465.0 with a 3.17% decrease; EC2604 at 1,264.5 with a 1.94% decrease; EC2606 at 1,430.0 with a 2.73% decrease. [2][16] - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of EC2508 decreased by 92, EC2510 by 38, EC2512 increased by 1,086, EC2602 increased by 52, EC2604 increased by 120, and EC2606 increased by 20. [2][16] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between EC2508 - 2510 was 818.7, showing a daily increase of 18.7 and a weekly increase of 103.6; the spread between EC2510 - 2512 was - 352.2, with a daily increase of 44.2 and a weekly increase of 64.4; the spread between EC2512 - 2602 was 196.2, with a daily decrease of 12.2 and a weekly decrease of 55.6. [2][16] 3.2 Index Information - **TTI**: Updated on August 18, 2025, it was 2,180.17 points, down 2.47% from the previous period and 2.71% from two periods ago. [2][16] - **SCH (European Line)**: Updated on August 22, 2025, it was $1,668 per TEU, down 8.31% from the previous period and 7.19% from two periods ago. [2][16] - **CCFI**: Updated on August 22, 2025, it was 1,757.74 points, down 1.85% from the previous period and 0.48% from two periods ago. [2][16] - **NCFI**: Updated on August 22, 2025, it was 1,083.74 points, down 8.85% from the previous period and 5.49% from two periods ago. [2][16] 3.3 Recent European Line Quotations - **Week 35**: The average price was $2,575 (equivalent to 1,770 points). BA Alliance quoted $2,500, MSK started at $2,300 and then rose to $2,490, and OA Alliance quoted between $2,700 - $2,800. [3][17] - **Week 36**: The average price was $2,250 (1,550 points). PA Alliance quoted between $2,200 - $2,300, MSK started at $2,100 and then rose to $2,200, and OA Alliance quoted between $2,300 - $2,400. [3][17] 3.4 Related News - On August 24, a senior Hamas official stated that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was deliberately undermining negotiations and insisting on continuing the offensive to achieve political goals. [4][18] - On August 21, the US and the EU reached an agreement on the "Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade Agreement Framework." The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods such as cars, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and wood, while some products like scarce natural resources, aircraft and parts, and generic drugs are exempt. The EU promised to cancel tariffs on US industrial products, provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products, and planned to purchase $750 billion worth of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products by 2028, along with $40 billion worth of US AI chips. EU companies will also invest an additional $600 billion in US strategic industries. [4][18]