来源：金十数据 美联储下一任主席的角逐在几周前似乎已接近尾声，但现在看来，这场竞争重新变得激烈起来。 特朗普政府的重要经济学家凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）在12月初曾是明显的领跑者，但前美联储理事 凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）近来已重新成为有力的竞争者。 研究公司Beacon Policy Advisors的执行合伙人斯蒂芬·迈罗（Stephen Myrow）认为，沃什目前"显然在 （美联储主席）人选的考虑范围内"。同时，迈罗表示，他认为与更接近特朗普"核心圈子"的哈塞特相 比，沃什的胜算"被夸大了"。 现任美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于五月结束。特朗普本月早些时候表示，他的政府"可能会在明年年初 宣布"美联储主席人选。 预测市场Kalshi在周一下午给出沃什的胜算为48%，而哈塞特为41%。另一预测平台Polymarket显示沃什 的胜率为49%，哈塞特为43%。 这场美联储职位竞争的格局变化，发生在特朗普上周五向《华尔街日报》表示他倾向于在"两个凯文"之 间做出选择之后，也发生在华尔街重量级人物——摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）发出 支持沃什的信号之后。 此外，一 ...

美联储周四提前完成地方联储主席连任投票，消除了特朗普盟友可能阻挠这些央行官员留任的担忧，此 举确保了联储系统内最强鹰派声音的延续。 美联储理事会表示，已批准11名有意留任的地方联储主席连任决定。这一每五年举行的投票原定于2月 底前完成，但提前实施反映出对潜在政治干预的防范。 地方联储主席们近期展现出明显的鹰派立场。芝加哥联储主席Austan Goolsbee和堪萨斯城联储主席 Jeffrey Schmid在周三降息决议中投出反对票，另有四名官员通过点阵图表达了对维持更高利率水平的 偏好。 另有四名官员通过点阵图显示，他们认为借贷成本应维持在10月设定的3.75%-4%区间。分析师指出， 其中两人很可能是克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack和达拉斯联储主席Lorie Logan，两人将从1月起获得 货币政策投票权。 这种鹰派立场与特朗普及其经济顾问呼吁央行大幅降息的主张形成鲜明对比。地方联储主席们持续警告 通胀上升的风险，成为抵制过度宽松政策的重要力量。 政治干预担忧促成提前决定 虽然地方联储主席连任程序历来很少引起关注，但特朗普对美联储的敌对态度引发了外界对政治干预的 担忧。此次提前完成连任投票，被视为防 ...

打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 由于市场担忧通胀问题，对FOMC及鲍威尔采取更鹰派立场的预期升温。流动性改善降低黄金持有成 本，美元指数下跌，美国10年期国债收益率下降，双重利好推动金价上涨。数据显示，决议公布后1小 时内COMEX黄金期货主力合约成交量大幅增长，大量买盘涌入推动金价突破4220美元震荡上沿。 今日周四（12月11日）亚盘时段，在今日午后美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议落幕之前，整体 市场表现平静，处于观望状态。2月交割的黄金期货(一般高于现货金十几美元)盘中报4229.1美元/盎 司，下跌7.1美元。 美国商品期货交易委员会将于本月底补全持仓报告，此前曾预计要到明年1月才能更新数据，现在计划 在12月底前清理完积压的报告。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 技术面来看，2月黄金期货多头的下一个上行目标是推动期货收盘价突破4433.00美元/盎司的合约高点/ 历史纪录高位这一强劲阻力位；空头的近期下行目标则是将期货价格压至4100.00美元/盎司的强劲技术 支撑位下方。第一阻力位见于本周高点4251.70美元/盎司，其次是4285.00美元/盎司；第一支撑位为本 周隔夜低点41 ...

德银认为若哈塞特上任美联储主席，初期为建立信誉和争取内部共识，其政策路径可能比预期更为鹰派或中性。指望美联储立即转向大规模货币宽松的押注， 面临着巨大的不确定性。 追风交易台消息，12月3日德银研究团队研报指出，尽管特朗普希望通过任命"忠诚"的哈塞特为美联储主席来推动降息，但实际执行面临重重障碍。 研报指出到2026年中期，美国经济基本面可能不支持大幅降息，加上美联储委员会内部的鹰派阻力，激进宽松货币政策难以实现。 因此，选择哈塞特，特朗普可以更有信心地认为，美联储内部将有一个坚定主张低利率的声音。 哈塞特拥有经济学博士学位，曾在美联储研究部门工作五年，也担任过美国企业研究所（AEI）等智库职位及特朗普首个任期内的经济顾问委员会（CEA）主 席，其背景足以胜任。 德银强调应警惕市场对"鸽派转向"的过度乐观定价，因为最终的政策路径很可能远比预期更为温和与中性。 "忠诚"的哈 塞特 尽管特朗普总统尚未正式宣布，但现任美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特已成为接替鲍威尔的热门人选。德银认为从特朗普政府的角度看，哈塞特的优势显而易 见。 首先，哈塞特的核心标签是"忠诚"。 在过去十年中，他一直是特朗普总统身边一位忠实的经济顾 ...

Group 1 - Dallas Fed President Logan issued a strong hawkish signal, opposing further rate cuts in December unless there is compelling evidence of declining inflation or a significant cooling in the labor market [1] - Logan emphasized that current inflation remains too high and is declining slower than expected, advocating for a slightly restrictive policy to ensure sufficient economic restraint [1] - In contrast, Fed Governor Milan argued that recent data supports further rate cuts, citing weakening inflation and labor market conditions [1] Group 2 - Kansas City Fed President Schmidt joined the hawkish camp, warning that further rate cuts could undermine the Fed's inflation credibility and that recent labor market weakness is due to structural factors [2] - Schmidt expressed concerns about inflation pressures from various sectors, advocating for stable rates and opposing recent rate cuts [2] - He also supported ending the balance sheet reduction process in December while suggesting measures to keep the Fed's balance sheet as small and non-distorting as possible [2] Group 3 - Boston Fed President Collins stated that rates should remain at current levels for some time to balance inflation above the Fed's 2% target and a weak labor market [3] - Other hawkish officials, including those from Chicago and Cleveland Feds, echoed similar sentiments, cautioning against further rate cuts [3] - Support for rate cuts came from officials like Milan, Miann, Waller, and Bowman, indicating a divided stance within the Fed [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market's interpretation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent statements as "hawkish" may be a misjudgment, as Barclays believes Powell's true intention is to correct the market's overconfidence in an imminent rate cut [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the October FOMC meeting, Powell indicated that inflation still faces upward pressure and that there is significant disagreement within the committee regarding a potential rate cut in December, suggesting that a cut is not guaranteed [1]. - The market reacted to Powell's comments with a sell-off in 2-year Treasury bonds, leading to a significant rise in yields and a decline in U.S. stocks [1]. Group 2: Barclays' Analysis - Barclays argues that the market's panic is a misinterpretation, asserting that Powell's intention is not a shift to a hawkish stance but rather to manage the market's overly certain expectations of a rate cut [1][2]. - The analysis team at Barclays views Powell's communication as a strategy to counter the market's assumption that a rate cut is inevitable regardless of economic data [2]. Group 3: Economic Data Insights - Recent economic data does not support a hawkish position; instead, it provides a basis for further rate cuts, with indicators showing a slowdown in labor demand [3]. - Powell acknowledged recent weak data on inflation, with core inflation indicators showing a downward trend. Barclays believes that once tariff impacts are excluded, the underlying core PCE inflation is close to the 2% target [5]. Group 4: Policy Implications - Barclays suggests that if potential inflation is only slightly above the target and the unemployment rate is marginally above the natural rate, then the policy setting should be neutral [8]. - Current market pricing reflects only a cumulative 55 basis points of rate cuts by June 2026, which Barclays considers overly one-sided [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October is diminishing, but the central bank will maintain a hawkish stance in the short term without feeling an urgent need to raise rates [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Bank of Japan has already implemented a 60 basis point increase, which has led to a significant rise in long-term Japanese government bond yields [1] - The central bank is expected to act cautiously to avoid excessive tightening of the economy [1] Group 2: Economic Sentiment and Risks - Weak household confidence may limit the Bank of Japan's actions [1] - There is a potential risk of a sudden appreciation of the yen due to increasing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which could negatively impact Japan's exports and asset markets [1]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a downward trend on September 18, with SHFE gold quoted at 824.54 CNY per gram, down 1.70%, and SHFE silver at 9823.00 CNY per kilogram, down 2.06% [1] - International precious metals also declined, with COMEX gold priced at 3670.30 CNY per ounce, down 0.66%, and COMEX silver at 41.65 USD per ounce, down 0.82% [1] - The opening prices for SHFE gold and silver were 835.34 CNY per gram and 9924.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with the highest prices reaching 839.00 CNY and 10009.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with projections indicating two more rate cuts this year, which is an increase from the previous forecast [3] - There was a contradiction in the Fed's statements, acknowledging a weakening labor market while also predicting rising inflation, leading to market volatility [3] - Following the Fed's dovish statement, U.S. Treasury yields initially fell, with the 10-year yield dropping below 4%, but later surged after Chairman Powell's remarks, increasing by 6.3 basis points [3] Group 3 - COMEX gold experienced significant volatility, closing at 3694.6 USD per ounce, down 0.82%, while SHFE gold closed at 832.64 CNY per gram, down 0.76% [4] - The price of gold reached new highs during the session but fell over 60 USD as the dollar strengthened, indicating weakened upward momentum for gold prices [4] - The market is expected to continue a high-level consolidation phase due to the hawkish tone of Powell's speech [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dissent within the Federal Reserve marks a significant shift in its traditionally consensus-driven decision-making process, influenced by external pressures such as President Trump's policies and rhetoric [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - On July 30, two Federal Reserve rate setters, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, voted against the majority to maintain interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5%, proposing a 0.25 percentage point cut instead, indicating a rare occurrence of "dual dissent" within the board [3]. - Waller and Bowman had previously expressed their views advocating for rate cuts, reflecting differing interpretations of the current economic conditions, particularly regarding labor market stability [5][6]. - Powell acknowledged the internal disagreements as stemming from noble intentions and polite discussions, emphasizing the thoughtful nature of the rate policy despite external noise [6]. Group 2: Economic Context and Market Reactions - Trump's administration has exerted pressure on the Federal Reserve, with considerations of dismissing Powell, although recent visits to the Fed did not lead to significant market fluctuations [8]. - Following the July 30 meeting, investor confidence in Powell's judgment increased, despite the dissent, as he defended a cautious approach to interest rates, which led to a slight rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a drop in the stock market [8]. - Expectations for the Fed's next meeting in September shifted, with the likelihood of a rate cut dropping from two-thirds to less than half after Powell's remarks, highlighting market uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, amidst rare dissent among board members [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The decision to keep rates steady was supported by 9 out of 12 voting members, while two members, Waller and Bowman, opposed the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3]. - This dissent is notable as it marks the first time since 2020 that more than one Federal Reserve official voted against the chair's decision [3]. - The Fed's statement highlighted that while the unemployment rate remains low and the job market is stable, inflation is still slightly elevated, and economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year [3]. Group 2: Future Rate Expectations - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is monitoring the potential impact of tariffs on inflation and has not yet made a decision regarding a rate cut in September [4][5]. - Following the Fed's announcement, traders significantly reduced their expectations for a September rate cut, with the probability of maintaining rates at 58.8% and a 41.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut [6]. - The probabilities for future meetings show a cumulative 47.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut by October and a 14.6% chance of a 50 basis point cut [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Analysts noted that Powell's remarks reflected both hawkish and dovish tendencies, suggesting that the threshold for a policy shift has lowered, allowing for potential rate cuts if upcoming data is unfavorable [8]. - The market reacted positively to the hawkish signals, with the dollar index rising close to 100, although a disappointing non-farm payroll report could reverse these expectations [8].