Bitcoin tested the $64,000 support level on Monday as the cryptocurrency continued a 26.41% monthly drawdown. As bitcoin’s price wanes, bitcoin miners are accelerating their transitions to AI/HPC business lines. Sellers forced a retest of bitcoin’s $64,000 support zone early Monday morning. Bitcoin previously found a floor at this level on February 6 after suffering one its worst daily selloffs ever. At the time of writing, bitcoin is down 3.7% week-over-week to $65,400. The #1 podcast for emerging tech ...

Core Insights - J.P. Morgan updated financial models for North American Bitcoin miners, adjusting price targets based on network difficulty and cryptocurrency price fluctuations [1] Group 1: Bitcoin Mining Revenue Projections - Analysts project a modest decline in bitcoin mining revenue for Q4 2025, with estimates for mined bitcoin increasing by a low single-digit percentage due to slower network hashrate growth, while lower realized bitcoin prices offset production gains [2] Group 2: Company Ratings and Price Targets - Cipher Mining (NASDAQ: CIFR) received an overweight rating with an $18 price target, reflecting its power pipeline and pivot toward AI/HPC, alongside a $2 billion debt offering and a 200-megawatt site acquisition in Ohio expected to come online in late 2027 [3] - CleanSpark (NASDAQ: CLSK) holds an overweight rating with a $14 price target, emphasizing its acquisition strategy, including two sites in Texas and ongoing negotiations for potential AI/HPC tenants [4] - Riot Platforms (NASDAQ: RIOT) maintains an overweight rating with a $20 price target, focusing on the capacity potential at its 1 GW Corsicana facility, assuming 600 megawatts of colocation deals by late 2026 [5] - Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) is rated overweight with a $13 price target, reflecting its revised year-end 2025 hashrate goal of 75 EH/s [5] - Iris Energy (NASDAQ: IREN) holds an underweight rating with a $39 price target, as the current valuation of approximately $54 is viewed as stretched, factoring in undeveloped site deals that have not materialized [6] Group 3: Regulatory Considerations - J.P. Morgan highlighted an ERCOT proposal that could impact bitcoin miners in Texas, with an interconnection backlog exceeding 250 gigawatts and proposed rules including a "use it or lose it" clause subject to annual reviews, to be presented to state regulators on February 20 [7] - Investors are advised to monitor management commentary from CleanSpark and IREN regarding the ERCOT rule during their earnings report on February 5 [7]

Core Insights - Galaxy Digital is expected to report a decline in fourth-quarter results after a strong third quarter, with a maintained buy rating and a $46 price target due to a strategic shift towards AI/HPC [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to exceed consensus estimates, but Galaxy will struggle to surpass the previous quarter's revenue, which included a one-time $9 billion bitcoin transaction [2] - Rosenblatt updated financial estimates, projecting adjusted EBITDA of $386.7 million for 2025, $169.8 million for 2026, and $648.7 million for 2027, with the $46 price target based on a multiple of 28 times the 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate [3] Business Segments - The data center business segment is expected to regain focus as a primary narrative driver, with the Helios campus receiving regulatory approval for an additional 830 MW of power, totaling approximately 1.6 GW, enhancing optionality for AI infrastructure demand [4] - The crypto financial services segment experienced a deceleration in sector-wide trading activity, with average daily crypto trading volume increasing 9% in October but falling 16% in November and 34% in December, leading to an estimated 15% decline in total cryptocurrency market volumes quarter-over-quarter [5] Revenue Projections - The blockchain rewards revenue segment, including staking and mining rewards, is projected to rebound by 22% to $63.7 million, attributed to a 110% increase in staked assets to $6.6 billion [7] - Fee income is expected to decline to approximately $26.7 million, down from $104.3 million in the third quarter, reflecting a normalization of activity after an IPO-related engagement, yet remaining about 57% higher than levels seen in the second quarter of 2025 [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The bull market for gold is not over, with macro factors remaining optimistic and short-term fluctuations driven by geopolitical events [3][11][13] - Key macro pricing factors for gold have not changed, indicating a sustained upward potential in the medium to long term [3][13] - Micro indicators show that while gold price deviations are high, the RSI is healthy, and ETF inflows continue to rise, suggesting no clear direction for gold prices [3][13] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Insights - TSMC's revenue for December 2025 is projected to grow by 20.4% year-on-year, driven by high-margin advanced processes and strong demand from AI/HPC sectors [4][12] - The advanced process capacity is fully loaded, with HPC accounting for 55% of revenue and 3nm technology representing 28% of wafer revenue [4][12] - TSMC's guidance for Q1 2026 indicates revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross margin of 63%-65%, reflecting strong demand visibility in AI [4][14] Group 3: Beauty Industry Trends - The South Korean beauty market has undergone several growth and decline phases, with the current phase focusing on global market expansion and reducing reliance on China [18][20] - New brands like APR and Silicon2 are outperforming traditional giants, indicating a shift in market dynamics and consumer preferences [20] - The report highlights the importance of innovation in product formulation and packaging, with South Korean brands leading in areas like cushion packaging and functional skincare products [20]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the semiconductor industry, focusing on companies such as TSMC, Xilinx, and others within the electronic sector in Taiwan. Key Points and Arguments AI Sector - TSMC reported a December revenue increase of 20% year-over-year and a 32% increase for the entire year, with a gross margin of 62.3% in Q4 2025, exceeding previous guidance [1] - For Q1 2026, TSMC's guidance indicates revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross margin of 63% to 65% and an operating profit margin of 54% to 56%, highlighting resilience in advanced process demand driven by AI and HPC [1] - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is set at $52 billion to $56 billion, with 70% to 80% allocated to advanced processes [1] - Xilinx reported a December revenue increase of 18%, benefiting from strong demand for AI servers and improved PCB supply, achieving new highs across monthly, quarterly, and yearly metrics [1] Mature Process - United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC), World Advanced, and Powerchip reported December revenue increases of 2%, 15%, and 22% year-over-year, respectively, with annual revenue growth of 2%, 10%, and 4% [2] - The 8-inch wafer utilization rate is expected to recover from approximately 75%-80% in 2025 to 85%-90% in 2026, with some foundries indicating price increases for foundry services [2] Memory Sector - Nanya Technology, Winbond, and Macronix reported December revenue increases of 445%, 53%, and 45% year-over-year, respectively, with annual revenue growth of 95%, 10%, and 12% [2] - Nanya has transitioned from a loss to profit, noting that DDR4 prices continue to rise, with price increases significantly outpacing shipment growth, indicating better profit elasticity [2] - In the NOR Flash segment, the upgrade from HBM3E to HBM4 is expected to increase NOR Flash usage due to the increase in stacking layers, leading to tighter supply and improved pricing conditions [2] - Macronix may raise NOR prices by 30% in Q1 2026 [2] Passive Components - Yageo reported a December revenue increase of 30%, with a 9% year-over-year increase for the entire year, driven by AI server demand [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the **Electronic Components Sector**, specifically discussing advancements in **Advanced Package Substrates** at the **SEMICON Japan** seminar held on December 17. Core Company Insights Ibiden - **Trend in Advanced Packaging**: Ibiden anticipates a continued trend towards larger and multi-layered substrate packaging as chiplets gain popularity. Warpage management is crucial for maintaining and improving yields [1][6]. - **Demand for Embedded Components**: There is an increasing demand from customers to embed core components like inductors and capacitors into copper clad laminates (CCLs) as substrate sizes grow [1][6]. - **Core Structure Changes**: Ibiden is considering shifting from a single core structure to a multi-core structure to enhance embedded component capabilities [1][9]. - **New Ono Plant**: Mass production is set to begin in October 2025, focusing on productivity, quality innovation, and sustainability. The plant will utilize automated processes for inspections and transport [1][9]. - **Package Size Expansion**: The demand for larger interposer reticles is increasing, driven by AI and high-performance computing (HPC) applications, which raises concerns about warpage due to coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) mismatches [1][9]. Resonac - **Challenges with Larger Packages**: Resonac highlighted the need to address warping and crack resistance as package sizes increase due to AI and HPC demands [1][8]. - **Material Development**: The company is focused on developing materials that can withstand increased stress and improve alignment precision in larger packages [1][10]. - **Collaborative Platform JOINT3**: Launched in August 2025, this platform aims to facilitate the development of large interposers, involving 27 companies with a total project cost of ¥26 billion [1][10]. Absolics - **3D Heterogeneous Integration (3DHI)**: Absolics discussed the complexity of packaging structures and the expectation that chip configurations will evolve to include more than 10,000 bumps per mm² and 1.2 trillion transistors by 2030 [1][12]. - **Glass as a Preferred Material**: The company views glass as a leading candidate for substrate materials due to its adjustable electrical properties and CTE, despite challenges like breakage and integration difficulties [1][12]. - **Roadmap for Development**: Absolics presented a roadmap for component-embedded glass core substrates, aiming for process optimization and yield improvement by the end of 2025 [1][12]. Additional Insights - **Cutting Techniques**: Various companies are exploring laser-dicer cutting methods for glass core substrates, as traditional grinding methods become less feasible with increasing substrate thickness [2][6]. - **Industry Challenges**: The pressing process for through-holes is progressing, but stress during substrate cutting remains a significant issue [2][6]. - **Future Prototypes**: Some manufacturers are targeting mass production of glass core substrates by 2028, indicating a long-term commitment to innovation in this area [2][6]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference, highlighting the ongoing advancements and challenges within the electronic components sector, particularly in the realm of advanced packaging technologies.

Core Viewpoint - The global market for ceramic substrates used in probe cards is projected to reach $280 million by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% over the coming years [4]. Market Overview - The ceramic substrate market for probe cards is characterized by high rigidity, high insulation, and low thermal expansion, essential for wafer electrical testing [2]. - Major manufacturers include Kyocera, SEMCNS Co., Ltd, Niterra (NTK), and IMTech Plus, with the top three companies holding approximately 91.0% market share in 2024 [7]. - The 300mm semiconductor test probe card substrates dominate the market, expected to account for 89.42% of the market share by 2031, up from 83.96% in 2024 [9]. Application and Demand - NAND flash memory is the primary demand source, representing about 45.5% of the market share [11]. - North America is the largest consumer market, projected to hold 29.06% of the sales market share in 2024, followed by Japan and South Korea [13]. - The domestic market in China is expected to grow rapidly due to localization and self-research efforts, with a CAGR of approximately 17.00% from 2025 to 2031 [13]. Market Drivers - The rise of AI/HPC and 5G/IoT is driving the need for increased wafer testing parallelism and I/O density, leading to advancements in ceramic substrates [15]. - Structural demand and technological upgrades are supported by government initiatives for key material localization and supply chain security [15]. Future Trends - Higher testing density is anticipated due to advancements in integrated circuit technology, necessitating substrates that support more probes [21]. - Miniaturization and high integration are expected to enhance testing efficiency and reduce space requirements [22]. - Multi-functional integration may include features like temperature monitoring and automatic adjustments for improved testing stability [23]. - New materials, including composite substrates, are likely to emerge to enhance thermal management and reduce production costs [24]. - Automation and smart technology integration will improve testing accuracy and efficiency [25]. - Cost optimization and domestic production are becoming increasingly important as the industry shifts towards localization [26].

Core Viewpoint - Crypto-related equities are under significant pressure due to Bitcoin's decline, with Mawson Infrastructure Group experiencing a temporary price spike that is not driven by investor enthusiasm but rather by mechanical factors [1][2]. Company Overview - Mawson Infrastructure Group is a U.S.-based digital infrastructure operator that started as a Bitcoin mining firm and has expanded into broader compute services, focusing on high-efficiency data-center facilities for power-intensive blockchain and GPU workloads [2][3]. Business Model Shift - In 2024, Mawson is repositioning towards the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) sector, driven by increasing demand for GPU-rich data-center space, which diversifies its business away from Bitcoin price cycles and towards recurring revenue from compute leasing and infrastructure services [3]. Bankruptcy Proceedings - Mawson faced turbulence earlier this year when creditors filed an involuntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy petition against the company, claiming it could not meet certain obligations [4]. - The U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware dismissed the involuntary petition with prejudice on October 21, confirming that the petition had no merit and preventing creditors from refiling the case [5][7].

Group 1 - The global semiconductor industry is expected to grow from $631 billion in 2024 to over $1 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 8% [1] - AI and High-Performance Computing (HPC) will be the core drivers of this growth, with their market share projected to increase from 35% in 2025 to 48% in 2030 [1] - SEMI forecasts a 10% year-on-year increase in global Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) capital expenditure in 2026, accelerating from 6% in 2025, indicating strong growth in advanced process logic and memory capital expenditures driven by AI [1] Group 2 - The optical module market is expected to maintain high prosperity due to ongoing investments in computing infrastructure both domestically and internationally [1] - The Communication ETF (515880) is the largest in its category, with optical modules accounting for 52% and servers for 22% as of October 28, representing over 81% when combined with fiber and copper connections, indicating a solid fundamental backing for overseas computing [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant investment interest in the semiconductor equipment sector, with a notable inflow of 90 million units into the semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) and a net inflow of 7 million units, indicating strong demand for semiconductor assets [1] - According to Huatai Securities, the global semiconductor industry is expected to grow from $631 billion in 2024 to over $1 trillion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8%. AI and high-performance computing (HPC) are projected to be the main drivers, with their share increasing from 35% in 2025 to 48% in 2030 [1] - SEMI forecasts a 10% year-on-year increase in global wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) capital expenditure in 2026, accelerating from 6% in 2025, which indicates strong growth in advanced process logic and memory capital expenditures driven by AI [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) tracks the semiconductor materials and equipment index (931743), which selects securities from publicly listed companies involved in semiconductor material research, production, and equipment manufacturing, reflecting the overall performance of the upstream segment of the semiconductor industry [1] - The index focuses on high-tech and high-growth potential materials and equipment sectors within the semiconductor industry, effectively capturing the development trends and market dynamics of this niche area [1]