Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] Core View - The domestic LPG spot market generally continued to rise, and the market atmosphere improved marginally. However, the overall supply - demand pattern remained unchanged, with a global oversupply of LPG. The PG futures price had short - term support but limited upside potential [1] Market Analysis - On November 11, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4320 - 4420; Northeast market, 3960 - 4050; North China market, 4200 - 4420; East China market, 4250 - 4400; Yangtze River market, 4590 - 4810; Northwest market, 4140 - 4200; South China market, 4400 - 4500 [1] - In the first half of December 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane and butane in East China were stable at 543 dollars/ton and 542 dollars/ton respectively, equivalent to 4236 yuan/ton and 4228 yuan/ton in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were stable at 538 dollars/ton and 537 dollars/ton respectively, equivalent to 4197 yuan/ton and 4189 yuan/ton in RMB [1] - The overseas market prices remained relatively stable. The mainstream transaction price of civil LPG in Shandong increased, and the price of post - ether C4 remained stable after a sharp increase. The downstream chemical demand was acceptable, while the combustion demand was poor. The downstream's ability to accept high - priced post - ether C4 decreased, which restricted the market's rebound space [1] - The supply tightened marginally due to refinery maintenance and a decline in arrivals, but the overall supply - demand pattern remained unchanged, with a global oversupply of LPG [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View - The LPG market has a relatively loose fundamental situation. The supply is abundant, with overseas supply remaining high in the Middle East and North America, and domestic supply slightly decreasing due to maintenance but still remaining sufficient. The demand improvement is limited, with marginal improvement in combustion - end demand and insufficient growth momentum in deep - processing demand. The weak performance of the ether - post - carbon - four market may potentially suppress the market [1]. 3. Summary of Related Content Market Analysis - On November 6, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4240 - 4370 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3630 - 4050 yuan/ton; North China market 4270 - 4450 yuan/ton; East China market 4200 - 4400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4560 - 4730 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4070 - 4100 yuan/ton; South China market 4400 - 4460 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of December 2025, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 538 and 537 dollars/ton respectively, down 10 and 9 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4197 and 4189 yuan/ton respectively, down 80 and 73 yuan/ton. In South China, the prices of propane and butane were 532 and 531 dollars/ton respectively, down 11 and 10 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4150 and 4143 yuan/ton respectively, down 88 and 80 yuan/ton [1]. - In the spot market, prices in East and South China rose, while other regions remained stable. Overall sales were okay, supply was abundant, and procurement was cautious. The external market price fell again, and the market continued to fluctuate weakly [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance and wait and see in the short term [2]. - Inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options: No strategies recommended [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PG main contract significantly increased due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. Although the spot supply pressure is high and the PG basis has dropped sharply and turned negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market may not decline significantly in the short - term [4]. - There is high inventory pressure and short - term supply pressure, but chemical demand provides support and combustion demand is expected to pick up. The PDH operating rate is 68.76% (-2.12pct), and enterprises are expected to increase production next week [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Daily Changes - On Wednesday, the prices of civil LPG showed differentiation, with a rebound in Shandong. The price in East China was 4259 (-5), in Shandong 4250 (+50), and in South China 4400 (-20). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4390 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -76 (-39), and the November - December spread was 145 (-1). FEI increased significantly, and CP increased slightly, at 478 (+21) and 447 (+5) US dollars/ton respectively [4]. Weekly View - The PG main contract rose significantly. The basis was -20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil LPG at 4200 (-250); in East China it was 4345 (-39), and in South China 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts [4]. - The external market prices dropped significantly. The FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (+5), and the CP monthly spread was -4 US dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane increased significantly, at 78 (+26) in South China. Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5) [4]. - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). The profit of PDH to produce propylene decreased. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct), with Zhongjing Phase II resuming production, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises are expected to increase production next week [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View After a long - term weak market, there are some marginal positive factors (rising international freight and improved chemical demand) in the LPG market, and market sentiment has improved. With the main contract on the domestic futures market switching to 2510, the market shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding. Spot prices in Shandong, South China, and East China have generally increased, and the market atmosphere is fair. However, considering that the supply - demand pattern of LPG has not changed substantially, the driving force and space for continuous upward movement of the market may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Section Market Analysis - On August 25, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4500 - 4630; Northeast market, 3850 - 4130; North China market, 4100 - 4550; East China market, 4350 - 4480; Yangtze River market, 4610 - 4790; Northwest market, 4450 - 4500; South China market, 4528 - 4550 [1]. - In the second half of September 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 581 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton, and butane was 556 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4552 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4356 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 573 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton, and butane was 546 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4489 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4277 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to be short - term oscillating and bullish. Traders can focus on short - term rebound opportunities at low levels of PG, but the upside space is limited. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2].

Core View - Supply contraction and import cost inversion support prices, but weak demand in the off - season and a weakening international market exert downward pressure. LPG futures will maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations and the sustainability of PDH operations [3][4] Fundamental Information Supply - The commodity volume of domestic sample enterprises decreased by 0.53% week - on - week to 524,900 tons, port inventories decreased by 5.17% week - on - week to 3.04 million tons, and the import arrival volume decreased by 6.95% week - on - week, leading to a marginal easing of supply pressure [3] Cost - In the first half of the year, the import arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic imported gas price was consistently lower than the import cost line, providing bottom support for the spot market. In July, the Saudi CP propane price was $575 per ton, and the loose supply - demand situation of crude oil suppressed cost - side expectations [3] Demand - The combustion end is in the off - season with weak terminal consumption. The PDH operating rate has rebounded to 75%, but the demand for MTBE and alkylation is differentiated, and the production - sales ratio is only barely balanced [3]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoint - Although the chemical demand for LPG is expected to be strong, the decline in oil prices and international LPG prices has led to a weakening of the PG market. The domestic LPG market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation due to weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Data Changes - From July 1 to July 2, 2025, the price of South China LPG increased by 10 to 4540, Shandong LPG increased by 2 to 4488, and Shandong alkylation oil increased by 30 to 4640. MB propane decreased by 3 to 550, and CP forecast price increased by 5 to 510 [1] - The basis of the main contract strengthened to 433 (+93), and the 08 - 09 month - spread was 50. The warehouse receipt registration volume was 8804 hands (+500), with 500 hands added by Qingdao Yunda [1] Market Conditions - On Monday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4488. FEI and CP declined, CP discount was basically flat, FEI discount dropped significantly, and PP fluctuated strongly. The production profit of FEI and CP to PP improved, and the CP production cost was lower than FEI [1] - The PG futures price rose, the month - spread declined, and the US - to - Far East arbitrage window closed. The AFEI propane dropped significantly, and the CP arrival discount decreased slightly [1] Supply and Demand - The port inventory increased significantly, and the factory inventory increased slightly. The commodity volume decreased by 0.98% due to reduced supply in South China's Maoming refinery, increased self - use in Shandong, and limited supply in East China [1] - Chemical demand was strong. The PDH operating rate increased significantly to 71.78% (+10.91pct), and next week, Liaoning Jinfa plans to resume operation. The alkylation operating rate increased, and Qifa Chemical's alkylation unit plans to resume production next week. MTBE export orders increased [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View of the Report - LPG is expected to experience short - term weak and volatile trends [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: PG2508 had a yesterday's closing price of 4,053 with a - 0.61% daily increase, and a night - session closing price of 4,065 with a 0.30% increase; PG2509 had a yesterday's closing price of 3,990 with a 0.13% daily increase and a night - session closing price of 4,026 with a 0.90% increase. PG2508's yesterday's trading volume was 58,667 (an increase of 14,309 from the previous day), and its position was 27,381 (a decrease of 7,956 from the previous day); PG2509's yesterday's trading volume was 50,765 (an increase of 20,777 from the previous day), and its position was 70,020 (an increase of 11,434 from the previous day) [3] - **Spread Data**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 08 contract was 477 yesterday (452 the day before), and the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 08 contract was 527 yesterday (502 the day before) [3] - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: This week, the PDH operating rate was 71.8% (60.9% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 67.6% (66.9% last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 45.9% (43.8% last week) [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The LPG trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [8] 3.3 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On July 17, 2025, the expected price of propane in the August Saudi CP was 546 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 516 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. For the September Saudi CP, the expected price of propane was 546 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 516 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [10] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start times and end times being undetermined [9] - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many domestic refineries in Shandong, Northeast, North China, East China, South China, and the West have maintenance plans, including full - plant overhauls and partial device overhauls, with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and overhaul durations [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "Oscillating weakly in the short term" for the LPG industry [1] 2. Core View - The LPG market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For PG2508, the yesterday's closing price was 4,111 with a daily decline of 1.89%, and the night - session closing price was 4,106 with a decline of 0.12%. For PG2509, the yesterday's closing price was 4,012 with a daily decline of 1.98%, and the night - session closing price was 4,016 with an increase of 0.10%. The trading volume of PG2508 yesterday was 81,840, an increase of 33,978 from the previous day, and the position was 44,838, an increase of 1,435. The trading volume of PG2509 yesterday was 34,948, an increase of 18,310 from the previous day, and the position was 49,228, an increase of 7,090 [3] - **Spread Data**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 08 contract was 469 yesterday, compared to 430 the day before. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 08 contract was 499 yesterday, compared to 440 the day before [3] - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 60.9%, down from 65.5% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 66.9%, up from 65.1% last week. The alkylation operating rate was 43.8%, down from 44.6% last week [3] 3.2 Market News - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On July 14, 2025, the expected price of propane in the August Saudi CP was 561 US dollars per ton, up 2 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 531 US dollars per ton, up 2 US dollars per ton. The expected price of propane in the September Saudi CP was 559 US dollars per ton, up 2 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 529 US dollars per ton, up 2 US dollars per ton [10] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Many companies have PDH device maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with different start and end times [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is weak and volatile, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Core Viewpoints - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the geopolitical premium has significantly declined, and the LPG futures market has returned to a narrow - range oscillation state with insufficient market drivers. The swap prices of propane and butane in the overseas market and the local spot prices of domestic LPG have dropped again. The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains relatively loose. After the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East fades, the overseas supply is abundant, especially the US LPG exports are still at a high level. The domestic refinery output is gradually increasing, and the recent arrival volume has rebounded, with high inventory at East China ports. The combustion - end consumption is in the off - season. The overall operating load of PDH plants once rebounded to over 70% but dropped to 68% due to partial plant maintenance at the end of June. In an environment of weak terminal demand and low profits, the demand for PDH raw materials may not continue to increase [1] Market Analysis Summary Price Information - On July 3, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4120 - 4310 yuan/ton; North China market, 4555 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4430 - 4650 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market, 4620 - 4740 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4580 - 4720 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of July 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 565 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton, and butane was 530 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4488 yuan/ton for propane, down 119 yuan/ton, and 4173 yuan/ton for butane, down 80 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China was 570 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton, and butane was 530 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4449 yuan/ton for propane, down 197 yuan/ton, and 4173 yuan/ton for butane, down 80 yuan/ton [1] Supply - Demand Situation - Supply: Overseas supply is abundant, especially US LPG exports are high, and the supply growth space has further expanded after the commissioning of export terminal expansion projects. The domestic refinery output is gradually increasing after the end of maintenance, and the recent arrival volume has rebounded, with high inventory at East China ports [1] - Demand: The combustion - end consumption is in the off - season. The overall operating load of PDH plants once rebounded to over 70% but dropped to 68% at the end of June due to partial plant maintenance. In an environment of weak terminal demand and low profits, the demand for PDH raw materials may not continue to increase [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term negative factors for LPG have been realized, and the price is supported [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing price of PG2508 yesterday was 4,257 with a daily decline of 5.65%, and the night - session closing price was 4,195 with a decline of 1.46%. The closing price of PG2509 yesterday was 4,176 with a daily decline of 5.78%, and the night - session closing price was 4,111 with a decline of 1.56% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of PG2508 yesterday was 176,304, an increase of 72,744 from the previous day, and the open interest was 81,468, an increase of 4,772. The trading volume of PG2509 yesterday was 36,951, an increase of 9,149 from the previous day, and the open interest was 26,436, an increase of 615 [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 08 contract was 543 yesterday, compared with 238 the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 08 contract was 613 yesterday, compared with 288 the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 66.2%, up from 64.3% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.7%, up from 59.7% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 47.2%, down slightly from 47.5% last week [1]. Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On June 23, 2025, the July Saudi CP expectation for propane was 602 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 572 dollars/ton, also down 8 dollars/ton. The August Saudi CP expectation for propane was 588 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 558 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars/ton [8]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with different start and end times [7]. - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many production enterprises, such as Shengli Heavy Oil, Haike Ruilin, etc., have device maintenance plans in different regions, with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [9]. Trend Intensity The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6].