Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its interest rates, signaling that the interest rate cut cycle may be nearing its end, despite ongoing inflation pressures and a strong euro [1][2][4] Group 1: ECB's Monetary Policy - On October 30, the ECB decided to keep the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the bank is in a "good position" as inflation is close to the target, and previous policies are still effective [1] - The ECB emphasized that while the eurozone economy shows resilience, uncertainties remain due to global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions [1][2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Preliminary data indicated that the eurozone's GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, surpassing market expectations, which supports the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates [2] - A survey revealed that a majority of economists expect the ECB to keep the deposit rate unchanged until at least the end of 2026, with 57% of surveyed economists believing rates will remain at current levels [2] Group 3: Euro Strength and Export Concerns - The ECB's decision to hold rates steady contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, raising concerns about the euro's strength, which has appreciated approximately 12% this year, potentially impacting export competitiveness [3] - The eurozone's export-dependent economies are under pressure due to U.S. tariffs and the strong euro, although recent business surveys indicate signs of economic recovery [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the strong euro continues to exert pressure, the ECB may be compelled to ease policies further, especially in light of ongoing rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The probability of another rate cut by the ECB by the end of 2026 is estimated to be less than 40%, indicating a cautious approach moving forward [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, reaffirming its commitment to restoring inflation to the 2% target in the medium term, with future decisions to be data-dependent and assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis [1][2] Group 1: ECB's Interest Rate Decision - The ECB has kept the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, aligning with market expectations and reflecting confidence in the resilience of the Eurozone economy and easing inflationary pressures [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to reiterate that the policy is "still in a good place" during the press conference [1] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Performance - The Eurozone economy grew by 0.2% in the third quarter, surpassing the expected 0.1%, supported by strong consumer spending, with France and Spain outperforming while Germany and Italy stagnated [2] - Year-on-year growth for the Eurozone was recorded at 1.3%, exceeding the anticipated 1.2%, indicating resilience despite high uncertainty this year [2] - The October composite PMI for the Eurozone rose to 52.1, a three-month high, and the German ZEW expectations index rebounded for two consecutive months, supporting the ECB's current wait-and-see stance [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Divergence in ECB Perspectives - Schroders' economist expresses confidence in enhanced growth next year, supporting the ECB's decision to keep rates unchanged until 2026, although a potential preventive rate cut could occur if inflation falls below current forecasts [3] - Danske Bank notes increasing divergence within the ECB regarding inflation outlook, with some officials highlighting downside risks and concerns over the strong euro and high household savings, while others emphasize the potential inflationary impact of expansionary fiscal policies and rising food prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its interest rates at 2%, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments based on incoming data [1][2]. Economic Growth - Eurozone's GDP growth for Q3 was reported at 0.2%, slightly above market expectations of 0.1%, following a growth of 0.6% in Q1 and a slowdown to 0.1% in Q2 [1][2]. - Year-on-year, the Eurozone's economic growth for Q3 was 1.3%, surpassing the expected 1.2%, driven primarily by Spain (0.6% growth) and France (0.5% growth) [2]. Inflation Trends - The Eurozone's inflation rate for September was reported at 2.2%, up from 2% in August, slightly above the ECB's target of 2% [3]. - Consumer inflation expectations have stabilized, with the median expectation for the next 12 months decreasing from 2.8% in August to 2.7% in September [2][3]. Market Sentiment - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October rose from 51.2 in September to 52.2, indicating a positive sentiment in the market and alleviating concerns about economic downturn risks [2]. - Despite the positive outlook, economists caution against viewing the current situation as a full economic recovery, highlighting significant downside risks [2]. ECB's Future Policy Stance - The ECB has not provided any signals regarding future policy direction, emphasizing that decisions will be based on the latest data without pre-committing to specific paths [1][3]. - ECB President Lagarde has stated that while the current economic conditions are favorable, the possibility of future rate cuts cannot be ruled out, indicating a readiness to respond to changing circumstances [3].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain the deposit facility rate at 2%, aligning with market expectations, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes [2][4] - The Eurozone is currently experiencing a period of low inflation alongside stable growth, with the ECB indicating no urgency to adjust policies as inflation has reached target levels [3][4] - Recent data shows that the Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.2% in Q3, slightly above market expectations, with annual growth at 1.3%, driven mainly by Spain and France, while Germany and Italy's economies stagnated [5][6] Group 2 - The Eurozone's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) improved from 51.2 in September to 52.2 in October, indicating economic expansion and alleviating concerns about economic downturn risks [5][6] - Inflation in the Eurozone for September was reported at 2.2%, slightly above the ECB's target of 2%, with expectations for a minor decrease to 2.1% in October [6][7] - ECB President Christine Lagarde has not ruled out the possibility of future interest rate cuts, emphasizing that the central bank remains prepared for various scenarios despite the current favorable economic conditions [7]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) deposit facility rate is maintained at 2%, in line with expectations and previous values [1] - The ECB main refinancing rate is also held steady at 2.15%, matching both expectations and prior figures [1] - The ECB marginal lending rate remains unchanged at 2.4%, consistent with forecasts and previous rates [1]

Core Points - The Tokyo stock market experienced wide fluctuations on October 30, influenced by the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged [1] - The Nikkei 225 index slightly increased, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index saw a significant rise [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell due to cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential rate cuts in December [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei index closed at 51,325.61 points, up 17.96 points, marking a new historical closing high with a minimal increase of 0.04% [1] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index closed at 3,300.79 points, up 22.55 points, reflecting a rise of 0.69% [1] Sector Performance - Over 80% of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains on October 30 [1] - The sectors with the highest gains included non-ferrous metals, mining, and electric and gas industries [1] - Conversely, the land transport, air transport, and information and communication sectors experienced the largest declines [1]

U.S. stocks are rising toward more records on Wednesday as Wall Street waits to hear from the Federal Reserve in the afternoon about what it will do with interest rates. ...

白宫周五在社交媒体平台X上发文称，由于国会未能通过临时拨款法案，资金短缺导致调查人员无法外出采集数据，从而"使我们失去了关键 数据"，"其经济后果可能是毁灭性的"。 白宫指出，这"将是历史上首次"无法公布相关信息。 美东时间周五（10月24日），白宫宣布，由于美国政府关门，下个月可能不会公布通胀数据。 分析人士指出，美国政府"停摆"持续的核心原因在于两党就医保福利支出问题僵持不下，临时拨款法案始终无法通过。 截至周五，共和党人与民主党人在临时拨款立法上的僵局已进入第24天。目前约有70万名联邦雇员被迫休假，另有近70万人无薪工作。 虽然政府仍在停摆中，但美国9月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告于周五公布，以便社会保障局能据此计算数百万退休人员及其他福利领取者的 2026年生活成本调整方案。这份报告原定于10月15日发布。 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在另一条X帖子中表示："民主党选择让政府继续关门，可能导致10月通胀报告无法发布，这将使企业、市场、 家庭以及美联储陷入混乱。" 美国联邦政府关门已进入第四周，这是美国历史上持续事件第二长的政府"停摆"事件。 自10月1日政府停摆以来，参议院民主党人多次阻止临时拨款法案 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, domestic policy has released positive signals, but corporate profits have not significantly improved. Therefore, the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution. As the Fed's October interest rate decision approaches and the expectation of an interest rate cut this year has been digested in advance, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is unclear, gold is likely to continue high - level volatile adjustments [36]. - In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade frictions. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. With the concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies fading, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East easing, and the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed this year being fully digested, there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In the third quarter of this year, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points slower than in the second quarter. From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, the first negative growth since September 2020. Industrial added value increased by 6.2% year - on - year, the same as last month. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points slower than last month [4]. Stock Index Fundamental Data - In September this year, the scale of new loans and social financing rebounded, and the gap between M1 and M2 further narrowed, reflecting that financial institutions have continuously increased credit support for enterprises. The A - share market was active, and liquidity remained abundant [17]. - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly decreased to 2426.377 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan [21]. Gold Fundamental Data - The US federal government was in a shutdown, causing some economic data to fail to be released on time. There were differences within the Fed regarding future interest rate policies, and most officials supported a further interest rate cut this year. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fell below the 4% mark [27][28]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures continued to soar, reflecting an increase in the demand for physical gold delivery and high market bullish sentiment [34]. Strategy Recommendation - In the third quarter, GDP growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to decline, mainly dragged down by the expanding decline in real estate investment and the slowing growth of infrastructure and manufacturing investment. With the improvement of weather conditions and the arrival of the peak construction season, industrial production expanded faster. Affected by the high - base effect of the same period last year, the growth rate of consumption slowed down marginally. The foundation for China's economic recovery is not solid, and the characteristics of strong production, weak demand, strong service industry, and weak manufacturing industry are still significant, with insufficient demand remaining the main contradiction [35]. - The communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released, proposing the main goals of the 15th Five - Year Plan and requiring continuous and timely strengthening of macro - policies. A new round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the market expects positive progress in the negotiations. With positive signals from the domestic policy side and eased concerns about China - US trade frictions, risk appetite has significantly rebounded, but the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution [35]. - As the Fed's October interest - rate meeting approaches, it is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. However, due to the continuous shutdown of the US government, important data such as non - farm employment and core inflation have not been released on time, bringing uncertainty to the Fed's future interest - rate policy. In terms of international geopolitics, the meeting between US and Russian leaders was postponed, the EU imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, and the prospect of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations has changed again. The expectation of an interest - rate cut by the Fed this year has been repeatedly digested, and after the rapid rise of gold, some funds have taken profits. Gold may enter a stage of adjustment in the short term [35].

（文章来源：新华财经） 近72%（63位）受访者认为该央行今年将维持利率不变，57%（79位中的45位）预计到明年底仍不会调 整利率。而上月调查中预计利率维持至2026年底不变的比例略低于半数。 新华财经北京10月22日电路透调查显示，随着通胀维持在2%目标附近且经济稳步前行，越来越多经济 学家认为欧洲央行已结束降息周期。尽管上月通胀率从8月的2.0%微升至2.2%，但欧洲央行9月10-11日 会议纪要显示其政策"足够稳健"以应对任何通胀冲击。在2024年6月至2025年6月期间累计降息200个基 点后，所有接受10月15-22日路透调查的88位经济学家均预测，欧洲央行将在10月30日会议上连续第三 次维持2.00%的存款利率不变。 ...