特朗普最近在达沃斯论坛上放话："如果鲍威尔在美联储主席任期结束后继续留任，他的日子不会好 过。 "这番威胁背后，是一场因利率政策分歧引发的权力大战。 2026年1月9日，美国司法部向美联储主席鲍威尔发出传票，针对美联储总部翻修工程预算超支25亿美元 一事展开调查。 鲍威尔直指这是政治报复，只因为他没有按照特朗普要求大幅降息。 这场看似普通的调查，揭开了特朗普与鲍威尔之间积累已久的矛盾。 表面上看，这是一场关于政府开支的审计纠纷。 美联储总部翻新项目确实出现超支，预算从最初的19 亿美元涨至25亿美元，增加了7亿美元。 但实质是特朗普试图利用司法手段，逼迫鲍威尔在利率政策上让步。 特朗普多次公开表示希望降息至 1%，而当前利率维持在4.3%左右。 鲍威尔在2025年6月的国会听证会上就明确表示"不急于降息"，强调需要更多数据确认通胀已受控制。 这一立场与特朗普期望的刺激经济政策背道而驰。 特朗普曾在北约峰会现场抱怨："幸运的是，他很快就要离任了，因为我认为他做得很糟糕。 "如今， 随着鲍威尔主席任期将在2026年5月结束，这场权力博弈进入白热化阶段。 特朗普对低利率的执着源于其经济连任战略。 在他的逻辑中，降低 ...

【导读】日韩股市走高，现货白银跌超2% 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来看下日韩股市的最新情况。 韩国股市突破5000点 1月22日，韩国股市KOSPI指数涨超2%，再创历史新高，首次突破韩国总统李在明设立的 5000点目标。 | 首尔综合指数 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指 HQ.KOSPI | | | | | | | | 5013.74 +103.81 +2.11% | | | | | | | | 01-22 08:28:30 | | | | | | | | 今开 4987.06 | | | 最高 5019.54 | | | | | 昨收 4909.93 | | | 最低 4985.69 | | | | | 分时 月K | 日K | 周Ｋ | | 室K | 更多, ◎ | | | 均价:5007.79 最新:5013.74 +103.81 +2.11% | | | | | | | | 201854 | | | | | | 2.23% | | 4909.93 | | | | | | 0.00% | | 4800.32 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that growth stocks in the U.S. still have room for performance, with an expected return of approximately 17% for the S&P 500 growth stocks and up to 21% for the S&P 600 small-cap value stocks [1] - The U.S. monetary policy has room for easing, with the Federal Reserve potentially lowering the policy rate to below 2.5% by 2026, while the European Central Bank is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2% at least until 2027 [1] - Inflation trends indicate that the overall consumer price index in the U.S. may approach zero growth by 2026, with core personal consumption expenditure inflation continuing to decline, although medium to long-term inflation risk premiums may still rise [1] Group 2 - In the commodities market, there is an optimistic outlook for aluminum prices, with a target range of $3,500 to $4,000 per ton; the natural gas market is facing supply pressures, with an estimated price of €22 per megawatt-hour for European TTF natural gas by 2027 [1] - In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar is expected to remain relatively strong in the first half of 2026, with the euro to dollar exchange rate potentially falling to 1.1; emerging market currencies may perform well in a globally moderate risk scenario [1]

智通财经获悉，美国总统特朗普周五在白宫一场活动上公开称赞其经济顾问凯文·哈塞特，并表示在考 虑下一任美联储主席人选之际，自己更倾向于让哈塞特继续留在现有岗位。 特朗普在活动现场表示，他注意到哈塞特当天出席活动，并特别提到其在电视节目中的表现。"我看到 凯文就在现场，只想对你说声感谢。你今天在电视上的表现非常出色。说实话，如果讲真心话，我其实 希望你继续留在现在的位置上。" 上述言论正值特朗普权衡下一任美联储主席提名人选之际。市场人士普遍认为，白宫在货币政策核心岗 位上的人事取向，可能对未来利率政策走向及金融市场预期产生重要影响。受该消息影响，黄金、白银 短线跳水，现货黄金跌破4560美元/盎司，日内跌1.24%；现货白银跌超5%，跌破88美元。 特朗普还在发言中向白宫幕僚长苏茜·威尔斯提及此事，称哈塞特的表现"令人难以置信"，并强调政 府"不想失去他"，但也指出，最终人事安排仍需综合各方面因素再作决定。 来源：智通财经 他进一步解释称，哈塞特的专业能力和沟通表现令他十分倚重。特朗普表示："凯文·哈塞特真的非常优 秀。我在想，如果把他调走，美联储的那些人，包括我们现在这位主席，他们并不太善于对外表达，那 我就会 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman advocates for readiness to lower interest rates due to a weakening labor market, emphasizing the need for the Fed to remain responsive to employment conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of increasing vulnerability, with potential deterioration expected in the coming months, despite a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [3]. - December's job growth fell short of expectations, indicating cautious hiring and limited layoffs, which may signal a slowdown in the labor market for the year [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - Bowman describes the current monetary policy as "moderately restrictive," indicating ongoing efforts to combat inflation and support economic growth [1]. - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate policies, with some believing that current rates are insufficient to effectively curb inflation, leading to a cautious stance on further rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Inflation Outlook - Bowman expresses a relatively optimistic view on inflation, noting that inflationary pressures are easing, partly due to reduced tariff impacts, with underlying inflation nearing the Fed's 2% target [1]. - The Fed's dual mandate of managing inflation and employment presents uneven risks, necessitating a flexible approach to policy decisions [4]. Group 4: Financial Market Vulnerabilities - Concerns are raised about potential vulnerabilities in financial markets, particularly regarding high stock prices and the risk of disappointing returns from AI investments, which could lead to sharp corrections in stock prices [1]. Group 5: Regulatory Focus - In terms of banking regulation, Bowman emphasizes the need to improve merger review processes, assess capital requirements across the banking system, and enhance examiner training and development [2].

特朗普在活动现场表示，他注意到哈塞特当天出席活动，并特别提到其在电视节目中的表现。"我看到 凯文就在现场，只想对你说声感谢。你今天在电视上的表现非常出色。说实话，如果讲真心话，我其实 希望你继续留在现在的位置上。" 他进一步解释称，哈塞特的专业能力和沟通表现令他十分倚重。特朗普表示："凯文·哈塞特真的非常优 秀。我在想，如果把他调走，美联储的那些人，包括我们现在这位主席，他们并不太善于对外表达，那 我就会失去凯文。这对我来说是一个很现实、也很严肃的顾虑。" 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普周五在白宫一场活动上公开称赞其经济顾问凯文·哈塞特，并表示 在考虑下一任美联储主席人选之际，自己更倾向于让哈塞特继续留在现有岗位。 特朗普还在发言中向白宫幕僚长苏茜·威尔斯提及此事，称哈塞特的表现"令人难以置信"，并强调政 府"不想失去他"，但也指出，最终人事安排仍需综合各方面因素再作决定。 上述言论正值特朗普权衡下一任美联储主席提名人选之际。市场人士普遍认为，白宫在货币政策核心岗 位上的人事取向，可能对未来利率政策走向及金融市场预期产生重要影响。受该消息影响，黄金、白银 短线跳水，现货黄金跌破4560美元/盎司，日内跌1 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - LME aluminum prices showed a decline, with three-month contracts reported at $3124 per ton, down $46.5 per ton or 1.47% from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic futures for Shanghai aluminum main contract 2603 experienced a drop, closing at 23925 yuan per ton, down 540 yuan or 2.21% [1] - The trading volume for Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 106057 lots, with open interest down by 12932 lots [1] Group 2: Domestic Market Conditions - In the spot market, prices in the Yangtze River region ranged from 24000 to 24040 yuan per ton, down 170 yuan, with a slight change in discount levels [1] - Guangdong's spot prices were reported between 24025 and 24075 yuan per ton, down 180 yuan, with a minor increase in discount levels [1] - Shanghai region prices were between 23990 and 24030 yuan per ton, also down 170 yuan, maintaining similar discount levels [1] Group 3: Macro and Industry Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows increased risk aversion, with the US dollar index slightly retreating to around 99.33, supported by unexpected declines in initial jobless claims [2] - China's automotive industry has seen significant growth, with production and sales exceeding 30 million units for three consecutive years, and revenue surpassing 1 trillion yuan [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released guidelines for the recycling and comprehensive utilization of used power batteries for new energy vehicles, effective from April 1, 2026 [2] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Xinjiang's delivery profits have re-emerged, potentially adding pressure to the market, while the end of pandemic controls and the cancellation of export tax rebates may support export activities [3] - Domestic aluminum downstream processing rates have shown a slight increase of 0.25 percentage points to 60.5%, influenced by pre-holiday inventory demands [3] - The market experienced a mixed atmosphere, with initial attempts to maintain prices followed by a decline in trading activity as prices fell [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell centers around interest rate policies, with Trump pushing for significant rate cuts to stimulate economic growth and Powell maintaining rates to combat inflation [1][3][6]. Group 1: Background of the Conflict - Trump's previous presidency ended partly due to the Federal Reserve's refusal to lower interest rates, which contributed to high inflation and his electoral defeat [1]. - The Federal Reserve's renovation project budget increased from an initial $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, with Trump claiming actual costs exceeded $3.1 billion, highlighting the financial tensions between the two parties [3]. - Since re-entering the political arena, Trump has consistently demanded the Federal Reserve lower rates to reduce government borrowing costs and support his manufacturing revival plan [3][7]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, and a 1% decrease in interest rates could save the government hundreds of billions in annual interest payments [3]. - Current inflation rates are around 2.7%, above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, which justifies Powell's decision to maintain higher interest rates [6][9]. - Historical precedents warn against political interference in monetary policy, as seen in the 1970s when low rates led to severe stagflation [6][9]. Group 3: Future Considerations - The investigation into Powell by the Justice Department, instigated by Trump, poses a threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve and could set a dangerous precedent for future chairpersons facing political pressure [9]. - The outcome of this conflict may not only affect Powell's position but also the future dominance of the U.S. dollar in global markets, especially as countries diversify their foreign exchange reserves [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe-haven sentiment rebounds [2]. - Silver: Reaches a new high [2]. - Copper: The strengthening of the LME spot premium supports the price [2]. - Zinc: Pay attention to the upper pressure [2]. - Lead: The reduction in overseas inventories supports the price [2]. - Tin: Strong upward trend [2]. - Aluminum: Oscillates with a slight upward bias [2]. - Alumina: Ranges within a certain interval [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Oscillates and adjusts [2]. - Palladium: Follows with a slight retracement [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range oscillatory operation [2]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,027.18 with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the night - session closing price was 1031.00 with a night - session increase of 0.14%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21030 with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the night - session closing price was 21943.00 with a night - session increase of 4.14% [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold increased by 630 kg, and the inventory of Comex Silver decreased by 2,255,181 troy ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The minimum margin ratio for margin trading on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was raised from 80% to 100. The US Supreme Court failed to rule on the Trump tariff policy case again, and the Nasdaq maintained a 1% decline. The US November retail sales unexpectedly strengthened, the PPI rebounded year - on - year, and the December existing - home sales were the strongest since 2023 [4][6][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,870 with a daily increase of 1.54%, and the night - session closing price was 103660 with a night - session decrease of 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 22,824 [8]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME copper inventory increased by 75 tons, and the LME copper premium strengthened, with an increase of 25.92 compared to the previous day [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the gold and silver section, also including that global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040 driven by AI and defense. The 2026 copper premium proposed by Pan - Pacific Copper to Japanese domestic customers reached a record high of $330 per ton [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24475 with a daily increase of 0.80%, and the trading volume increased by 54828 [11]. - **Premium and Inventory**: The LME CASH - 3M premium increased by 21.55, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons [11]. - **News**: The US Supreme Court failed to rule on the Trump tariff policy case, and the US November retail sales unexpectedly strengthened [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17385 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and the trading volume increased by 6891 [14]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME lead inventory decreased by 3725 tons, and the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased by 0.18 [14]. - **News**: Similar to the above, including US economic data and Fed officials' stances [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 413,170 with a daily increase of 8.92%, and the night - session closing price was 436,540 with a night - session increase of 9.18% [18]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 862 tons, and the LME tin (spot/three - month) premium increased by 22 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US will suspend visas for 75 countries, the US November retail sales exceeded expectations, the yen reached an 18 - month low, and other news [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24595, and the trading volume decreased by 47846. For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2800, and the trading volume decreased by 273575. For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract was 23380, and the trading volume decreased by 8122 [21]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons, and the LME aluminum premium was 22.09 [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: Fed officials' stances on interest rates, and other news [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum has a trend intensity of 0, and palladium has a trend intensity of 0 [25]. - **Related News**: US economic data, Iran situation, US Supreme Court's non - ruling on Trump tariffs, Trump's chip tariff policy, and other news [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 140,940, and the trading volume decreased by 206,996. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 13,925, and the trading volume decreased by 71,570 [28]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses, China implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia planned to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula, and other news [28][29][31].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual commodity ratings can be inferred from the trend strength: - **Positive Outlook**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Tin, Aluminum, PX, PTA, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil [2][9][19][23][62][73][124] - **Neutral Outlook**: Platinum, Palladium, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Industrial Silicon, Polycrystalline Silicon, Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Ferrosilicon, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal, Logs, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chips, Pure Benzene, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Eggs, Peanuts [26][30][31][36][39][40][43][45][49][53][57][59][142][150][158][159][162][170][175][182] - **Negative Outlook**: Zinc, PVC, Caustic Soda, Rubber, Benzene Ethylene, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Sugar, Live Pigs [12][121][81][70][103][107][112][113][153][166][178] Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including their price trends, fundamental data, and market news. It suggests that investors should pay attention to factors such as supply - demand balance, cost support, and geopolitical events when making investment decisions. For example, for PX and PTA, although the supply is relatively loose, the cost - end support from oil prices may drive the prices up, but the decline in downstream demand needs to be monitored [68]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The price is affected by factors such as the US economic data and the Fed's interest - rate policy [5]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high. The price shows a strong upward trend [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The strengthening of LME spot premium supports the price. The global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040, but the production of some major copper producers has declined [9][11]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the upper - level pressure. The price is affected by factors such as inventory changes and macro - news [12]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The market is influenced by macro - economic data and industry news [16]. - **Tin**: Strong upward movement. The price has increased significantly [19]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating strongly. Alumina is in range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [23]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - Related**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East affects the oil price, which in turn impacts the prices of related chemical products such as PX, PTA, and MEG [62]. - **PTA**: The polyester production - cut plan has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength. The price is influenced by cost and downstream demand [62]. - **MEG**: The downside space of valuation is limited [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to shrink [63]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating, waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade events [65]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price [67]. - **Sugar**: Weak operation [68]. - **Cotton**: Continuing the adjustment trend [69]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East; weak operation. The price is affected by factors such as shipping capacity, demand, and spot freight rates [126].