Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the labor market and economic growth, suggesting potential investment risks in related sectors [5][12][41]. Core Insights - The U.S. labor market has shown signs of significant slowdown, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by an average of only 35,000 over the past three months, and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs for May and June [5][6]. - The unemployment rate has risen, indicating that job seekers are facing increased difficulties in finding employment, which poses risks to consumer and business spending [5][12]. - Despite a 3% annualized growth in GDP, the final sales to private domestic purchasers have reached their lowest growth rate since the end of 2022, reflecting weak underlying demand [11][12]. - Manufacturing activity has contracted at the fastest pace in nine months, with 25% of U.S. manufacturers reporting a reduction in employment due to declining orders [12][14]. - The average U.S. tariff rate has reached its highest level since World War II, with significant implications for trade dynamics and economic performance [39][41]. Summary by Sections Labor Market - The labor market is transitioning to a slower growth phase, with rising unemployment and stagnant wage growth, which could further dampen consumer and business spending [5][6][12]. - The manufacturing sector is particularly affected, with a notable decline in employment and activity levels [12][14]. Economic Growth - The U.S. GDP growth remains robust at 3%, but the underlying demand indicators suggest a weakening economy [11][12]. - The trade policies and tariffs imposed by the U.S. are contributing to economic uncertainty and may hinder future growth prospects [39][41]. Trade and Tariffs - The report highlights the impact of increased tariffs on trade relationships and economic activity, with the average tariff rate now at 15%, significantly higher than previous years [39][41]. - The implications of these tariffs are expected to affect both domestic manufacturers and international trade partners [39][41].

Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets experienced significant volatility due to a series of tweets from former President Trump, leading to an unprecedented 18% drop in copper prices, the largest single-day decline since 1986 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On July 31, global copper prices fell sharply, impacting commodity markets and leading to slight declines in global stock markets [1][2]. - The sudden drop in copper prices was attributed to Trump's announcement that only semi-finished copper products would be subject to tariffs, excluding raw materials [3][4]. - Following the announcement, major banks like Citibank and Morgan Stanley issued reports predicting a drastic reduction in U.S. copper imports and a significant drop in copper prices [3][4]. Group 2: Employment Data Manipulation - Trump accused the former head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics of manipulating employment data to benefit political interests, leading to her dismissal [9][12]. - The revised employment data revealed a much worse job market than previously reported, indicating a severe economic downturn [12][9]. - The manipulation of employment statistics was cited as a reason for the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, which Trump argued was detrimental to the economy [12][4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged added pressure to global markets, although it was largely anticipated [4][7]. - Trump's reaction to the Fed's decision included calls for resignations and accusations of mismanagement, which contributed to market uncertainty [17][19]. - The probability of a rate cut increased significantly following Trump's comments, leading to a drop in the U.S. dollar index and increased volatility in the markets [17][19]. Group 4: A-shares Market Response - Despite global market declines, the A-shares market showed resilience, with expectations of minimal impact from the U.S. market's volatility [23][26]. - The A-shares market had previously experienced a strong upward trend, and the recent adjustments were viewed as a healthy correction rather than a panic response [23][28]. - The anticipated U.S. rate cuts and the subsequent release of capital were seen as potential long-term benefits for the A-shares market [28][27].

此前两天，美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒宣布将辞去美联储理事职位，其任职期原定于明年1月到期。 同时，特朗普还因为劳动力市场数据显示就业增长疲软，解雇了劳工统计局局长埃里卡·麦肯塔弗。 在全球经济增长轨迹令人担忧的背景下，这两起人事变动可能会影响特朗普的经济议程。这让特朗普有 机会任命更符合其政府政策的人选，并进一步给美联储主席鲍威尔施加压力。 打开降息"后门" 7月30日，美联储连续第五次维持利率不变，鲍威尔表示，美联储在制定利率政策时不会考虑联邦政府 的财政需求，且不会提前决定9月的利率，其强调要依据经济数据作出决策。 当天，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和副主席米歇尔·鲍曼在议息会议上罕见地投下反对票，支持立即降 息25个基点，引发外界关注。 当地时间8月3日，美国总统特朗普表示，他将在几天内宣布新的美联储理事和劳工统计局局长。 特朗普与美联储的"恩怨"可谓由来已久，且近期持续升级，主要围绕利率政策展开。 库格勒辞职后，特朗普在毫无证据的情况下声称，她辞职是因为在利率问题上与鲍威尔存在分歧，并再 次批评鲍威尔，要求他辞职。 不过，现年55岁的库格勒在提交给特朗普的辞呈中未说明离职原因，仅提到她将于今年秋季重返 ...

撰文：Delaney Capital Asia 投研团队 随着2025年7月的美国经济数据陆续发布，加之特朗普总统持续呼吁降息，美联储在本次会议中维持利 率不变，令市场对9月是否降息陷入不确定性。Delaney 拥抱数据驱动思考，认为这场政策拉锯背后， 反映的是宏观结构变化对 Web3 资产配置决策的深层影响。 一、美联储立场：为何坚持利率不变而非立即降息？ ● 政策声明由特朗普支持派人物、联邦储备理事博曼与沃勒提出降息主张，但因担忧通胀、关税预期压 力等因素，大多数FOMC委员选择"观望为主"，坚持将联邦基金利率维持在4.25–4.50%区间(Reuters)。 ● 主席鲍威尔强调，当前核心PCE通胀仍高于2%目标（约2.7%），劳动力市场依然强劲，GDP增速回 升至3%。更多数据需要累积，降息机会尚不明确(Investopedia)。 二、特朗普及其团队的降息逻辑：拥护者为何认为应立即行动？ ● 政治与经济双重压力：特朗普公开批评鲍威尔"太迟"，主张将利率降至1%或更低，以刺激经济与缓 解通胀压力(Reuters)。 ● 白宫立场展现出明显倾向：特朗普提议使用关税收入支持政策刺激，认为市场反应仍未计入这些 ...

Core Points - The resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Adriana Kugler creates an opportunity for President Trump to nominate a new member, potentially influencing monetary policy in the coming months [1][2][3] - Trump's dismissal of Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre following disappointing employment data indicates dissatisfaction with current economic reporting [1][6] Group 1: Federal Reserve Changes - Adriana Kugler's resignation from the Federal Reserve Board will take effect on August 8, and she plans to return to Georgetown University as a professor [2] - Kugler's term was originally set to expire in January 2026, and she was appointed by President Biden in September 2023 [2] - Trump's excitement over the vacancy suggests he may seek to appoint a more favorable candidate to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [1][3] Group 2: Employment Data and Market Reaction - The July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations, leading to a market crash where over $1 trillion in market value was lost [1][6] - The disappointing employment data prompted a surge in market expectations for a rate cut in September, rising from under 40% to 80% [5] - Trump's claims of data manipulation by McEntyre, although unsubstantiated, reflect a broader narrative of dissatisfaction with economic statistics leading up to the 2024 election [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Adriana Kugler and President Trump's subsequent actions indicate a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's leadership and monetary policy direction, which could have significant implications for the U.S. economy and financial markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Changes - Adriana Kugler announced her resignation from the Federal Reserve Board effective August 8, 2023, to return to Georgetown University as a professor [2]. - Trump's excitement over Kugler's resignation suggests he may seek to nominate individuals aligned with his economic views to the Federal Reserve Board, potentially influencing future interest rate policies [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, all of whom are permanent voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with appointments made by the President and confirmed by the Senate [2]. Group 2: Employment Data and Market Reaction - The U.S. labor market showed disappointing results in July, with only 73,000 new jobs added, leading to a significant drop in the stock market, with over $1 trillion in market value lost [5]. - Trump's dismissal of Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre was based on allegations of political manipulation of employment data, although no evidence was provided [5]. - Following the release of the poor employment data, market expectations for a rate cut in September surged from under 40% to 80% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding interest rate policies, highlighting the political implications of monetary policy decisions as the election approaches [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive refusal to lower rates, which Trump perceives as detrimental to his re-election campaign [1][3]. - High interest rates are constraining consumer spending, credit availability, and overall economic liquidity, which are critical for Trump's economic narrative [3][4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Trump's public criticism of Powell reflects a broader struggle for control over monetary policy, as he seeks immediate economic stimulus to bolster his electoral prospects [4][6]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized as a crucial element for maintaining market stability, with Powell's resistance to political pressure seen as vital for the integrity of the U.S. dollar [3][6][10]. Group 3: Implications for Trust in Monetary Policy - The article warns that if Trump continues to exert pressure on the Fed, it could undermine global confidence in the U.S. monetary system, leading to potential economic instability [9][10]. - Powell's role is characterized as that of a guardian of monetary policy integrity, while Trump's approach is likened to that of a desperate gambler threatening the system [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [66]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown a 4.02% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3 percentage points, ranking 5th among 31 industries [3][12]. - The small metals sector has surged by 14.01%, while precious metals have declined by 3.84% during the same period [18]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has led to a reduction in expectations for interest rate cuts, impacting the prices of precious and industrial metals [5][60]. Market Performance Summary - As of July 31, 2025, the LME copper price is at $9,607/ton, aluminum at $2,562.5/ton, lead at $1,969.50/ton, zinc at $2,762/ton, nickel at $14,950/ton, and tin at $32,685/ton [24][60]. - The COMEX gold price is $3,342.30/ounce, down $7.5 since early July, while silver is at $36.79/ounce, up $0.54 [35][60]. Subsector Analysis - Rare earth prices have stabilized and increased due to improved supply-demand dynamics, with the rare earth price index at 204.36, up 22.35 since early July [43][63]. - Tungsten prices are rising due to supply constraints and increased demand from the new energy and military sectors, with average tungsten concentrate prices at 192,900 yuan/ton, up 19,000 yuan [63]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on China Rare Earth (000831) and Kinglong Permanent Magnet (300748) due to their expected profitability improvements [64]. - Xiamen Tungsten (600549) is also highlighted for its strategic value in the tungsten market [63].

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - On July 31, U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching intraday all-time highs [1][4] - The Dow Jones index fell by 0.74% to 44,130.98 points, the Nasdaq index decreased by 0.03% to 21,122.45 points, and the S&P 500 index dropped by 0.37% to 6,339.39 points [4] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with the "Big Seven" tech index rising by 1.31% [6] Group 2: Company Earnings Reports - Meta's stock surged by 11.25% following better-than-expected earnings [6][3] - Amazon reported Q2 revenue of $167.7 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, and net profit of $18.16 billion, up 34.7% year-over-year, but its stock fell over 7% in after-hours trading [7][10] - Apple's Q2 revenue reached $94.036 billion, a 9.63% increase year-over-year, with net profit of $23.434 billion, up 9.26% year-over-year [10] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - International gold demand reached 1,249 tons in Q2 2025, a 3% year-over-year increase, driven by strong investment demand [15] - Global gold jewelry demand decreased in volume but increased in value during the same period [15] - Oil prices saw a slight decline, with Brent crude down by 0.99% to $71.75 per barrel and WTI crude down by 0.91% to $69.36 per barrel [12][13]

美联储罕见的双重异议票降低了市场对主席鲍威尔今年提前离任的预期。利率市场和Polymarket平台的隐含概率显示，鲍威尔的职位相较此前更 加稳固，尽管美联储内部鸽派声音日趋强烈。 昨日的美联储会议出现了自1993年以来首次两名理事同时投出异议票的情况。沃勒和鲍曼均支持降息，与鲍威尔的维持利率不变立场形成对比。 这一罕见分歧凸显了美联储内部政策倾向的分化。 鲍威尔选择在关税通胀影响尚不明朗时保持谨慎立场，维持利率不变。市场将此解读为其领导地位的进一步巩固，鲍威尔提前离任的市场预期因 此下降。 通胀压力重新抬头的多重迹象为鲍威尔的谨慎立场提供了支撑，但美联储内部日益强烈的鸽派声音可能削弱其对抗收益率上升的防线。 罕见双重异议票重现，市场重估鲍威尔地位 美联储昨日会议的双重异议投票创下32年来首次。沃勒和鲍曼两名理事均投票支持降息，与鲍威尔维持当前利率政策的决定形成鲜明对比。 这一罕见情况表明美联储内部政策分歧正在加剧。两名理事的降息倾向显示了央行内部"风向"的变化，但鲍威尔仍选择坚持更为谨慎的立场。 利率市场和预测平台Polymarket的数据均显示，鲍威尔今年提前离任的隐含概率进一步下降。7月份Polymark ...