在地缘政治领域，尽管相关冲突地区各方已开启谈判进程，但由于各方在核心利益诉求和谈判立场上存在显著分歧，谈判前景尚不明朗。不过，谈判的启动 本身释放出通过对话解决争端的积极信号，一定程度上缓解了地缘政治紧张局势，这也对黄金的避险需求产生了抑制作用。 尽管消息面呈现出复杂多变的态势，但截至本交易周尾，黄金收盘价仍维持在3200美元/盎司上方。基于此部分市场参与者依然对黄金价格抱有乐观预期， 认为金价有望向3500美元/盎司靠拢，甚至突破这一关键价位。然而，正如秦氏金升此前分析所述，黄金价格前期的冲高主要是受到多重利好消息刺激，引 发市场集中性买盘推动。如今，随着避险情绪逐步退潮，金价出现回调属于市场的正常价值回归过程。 一、消息面分析 从宏观经济消息面维度来看，近期国际贸易局势的缓和显著削弱了黄金作为避险资产的属性。贸易双方通过积极磋商达成阶段性共识，使得全球投资者风险 偏好有所回升，黄金避险买盘随之减少。与此同时，美联储官员多次强调在货币政策调整上保持谨慎态度，明确表示短期内不急于降息，这些因素共同对黄 金价格形成了有力压制。 在日线级别上，黄金价格自3500美元/盎司高点开启的ABC三浪下跌趋势特征十分明显。 ...

Group 1 - The most valuable Chinese company listed on US exchanges is Alibaba, which is also one of the largest IPOs of the century, with a market cap of $285 billion, having increased 13 times since its IPO [2][3] - Pinduoduo ranks second, valued at approximately half of Alibaba, and is an online retailer that started in the agricultural sector [2] - NetEase, the oldest among the top 30 US-listed Chinese companies, was established in 2000 and is the largest email service provider in China, expanding into gaming, music streaming, and online education [2][3] Group 2 - There has been a resurgence of Chinese IPOs in the US after a two-year lull due to geopolitical tensions and security concerns, with 48 new Chinese companies listed since January 2024, most of which are small with an average IPO size of $50 million [3] - The top 30 Chinese companies listed in the US have a combined market cap of $873 billion, which is less than half of Apple's market cap [4]

泰国工业机构主席：由于需求低迷，泰国石脑油裂解装置的利用率保持在70-80%的低位。由于地缘政 治紧张局势，预计今年利润空间将难以恢复。石脑油裂解装置因需求下降被迫延长停产时间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The assertion that gold prices are bullish in the long term has not been completely undermined despite recent fluctuations in the market [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year decreased in April, but month-on-month increased by 0.2%, compared to a decrease of 0.1% in March [1] Market Reactions - Following the U.S.-China trade talks, gold prices fell to their lowest point in over a month on Monday, but recovered some losses on Tuesday due to ongoing uncertainties in future trade negotiations [1] Influencing Factors - The rebound in gold prices was initiated before the tariff discussions, driven by persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties surrounding central banks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corporation is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its robust financial performance, strategic asset management, and favorable market conditions for gold, driven by economic uncertainty and rising gold prices [1][10]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Newmont's net income surged to $1.9 billion, over ten times the amount from the same period last year, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.25, exceeding analyst expectations [3]. - Free cash flow reached $1.2 billion, marking a significant achievement despite a production decline to 1.54 million ounces due to recent asset sales [3]. - The total sustaining cost per ounce was $1,651, but the net profit margin improved, with the revenue-cost gap remaining well above $1,000 per ounce [3]. Asset Management - Newmont has strategically divested six smaller, less profitable mines, generating over $4 billion in cash, and is now focusing on 11 long-life, lower-cost mines [1][4]. - The company has a strong balance sheet with $4.7 billion in cash and total debt of $7.5 billion, resulting in a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.3 [3][4]. Growth Prospects - Newmont anticipates a total production of 5.6 million ounces for 2025, with over half expected in the second half of the year, driven by projects like Ahafo North in Ghana and the Tanami expansion in Australia [7]. - The company aims to increase production to 6.4 million ounces annually by 2027, supported by the expansion of the Cadia mine and growing global demand for precious metals [7]. Market Conditions - Economic uncertainty, inflation risks, and geopolitical tensions are driving demand for gold, with prices soaring to $3,325 per ounce [1]. - Newmont's diversified operations, including increased copper production post-Newcrest acquisition, reduce operational risks and align with global electrification trends [7][8]. Valuation and Returns - Newmont's forward P/E ratio is approximately 13, with an EBITDA multiple of about 6.4, indicating attractive valuation compared to peers [10][11]. - The company offers a dividend yield of around 2%, with potential for increase if gold prices remain high, alongside an ongoing stock buyback program [10].

每经记者｜郑雨航 每经编辑｜兰素英 当地时间2025年5月9日，印控克什米尔地区，居民区遭受损坏。过去几周，巴基斯坦持续对乌里和库普瓦拉地区的边境区域进行炮击。图片来源：视觉中 国-VCG31N2213630954 当地时间5月7日凌晨1时05分，印度军方发动代号"朱砂行动"的军事打击，向巴基斯坦及巴控克什米尔地区的9处目标发射导弹。 当地时间10日，巴基斯坦正式启动代号为"铜墙铁壁"的军事行动，以回应印度方面持续不断的挑衅行为。 这意味着印度和巴基斯坦之间的紧张局势严重升级。此次冲突是印巴50年来最大的一次。 上海国际问题研究院南亚研究中心印度问题专家李红梅对《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称"每经记者"）表示："本次冲突是自1971年第三次印巴战争以 来，在地理范围层面印度对巴进行军事打击纵深最深的一次。" 紧张局势也给两国经济带来了不确定性。据彭博社报道，外国银行5月8日净卖出1063亿卢比（约合12亿美元）的印度国债，创自2006年有记录以来的最高单 日抛售规模。在全球贸易不确定性的背景下，冲突也削弱了印度作为相对安全投资目的地的吸引力。 50年来最大冲突！巴基斯坦正式启动军事行动，印巴局势为何升温？ 5 ...

Group 1 - Foreign banks sold a record 106.3 billion rupees (approximately 1.2 billion USD) of Indian government bonds in a single day, marking the highest daily sell-off since records began in 2006 [1] - Despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expecting interest rate cuts, the attractiveness of India as a "relatively safe" emerging market asset is being challenged by escalating border tensions [1] - Domestic banks in India continue to buy bonds, primarily for client accounts or their own trading books, indicating no significant outflow of dollars despite foreign selling [8] Group 2 - The Indian stock and bond markets have experienced declines for two consecutive days due to geopolitical tensions, with the benchmark 10-year government bond yield rebounding approximately 9 basis points after a nearly 30 basis point drop since February [2] - The RBI is expected to intervene to control market volatility, as past border conflicts have typically had a short-term impact on the Indian market [8] - The RBI is prepared to use foreign exchange reserves to maintain currency stability amid escalating tensions between India and Pakistan [8]

印巴紧张局势升级，印度卢比贬值 金十数据5月9日讯，由于印度和巴基斯坦之间的地缘政治紧张局势不断升级，印度卢比兑美元在亚洲交 易时段走弱。印度表示，它拦截了巴基斯坦周四发射的导弹和无人机，这些导弹和无人机瞄准了印度领 土上的军事设施，令这两个拥有核武器的国家之间的对抗升温。星展集团研究外汇与信贷策略师张伟亮 在评论中表示："考虑到印度卢比的相对大幅波动，印度央行可能有理由抵制过度的贬值压力。" ...

印度卢比因地缘政治紧张局势加剧而下跌1%。 ...

第一季度财报季总体进展顺利，因为这是特朗普关税政策产生影响之前的最后一个季度。 根据巴克莱银行的数据，标普 500 指数（^GSPC）成分股公司本季度的盈利同比增长 7.9%。盈利超出 预期的平均幅度为 10.2%，而长期平均超出预期幅度为 5.2%。 苹果（AAPL）、字母表公司（GOOG， GOOGL）和微软（MSFT）等家喻户晓的公司，其业绩令华尔 街印象深刻。 但标普 500 指数成分股公司是否能够实现预计 10% 的每股收益增长率仍存疑问，它们的估值前景同样 如此。 考克斯警告称："我认为让很多华尔街人士担忧的是，感觉最糟糕的情况还在后头。" 从企业高管到普通消费者，每个人都在担心关税带来的影响，投资者在寻找合理估值的过程中，股票市 场也随之大幅波动。 在 4 月初的 "解放日" 之后，股票市场大幅下跌，并在 4 月 7 日触底，随后随着财报陆续公布，股票市 场在当月反弹回升。 可口可乐（KO）董事长兼首席执行官詹姆斯・昆西告诉索齐，谨慎的消费者在超市的购买量有所减 少。 昆西解释道："疲软就集中在这个方面，我认为这在一定程度上表明了低收入消费者面临的一些购买力 压力，以及一些地缘政治因素的影响。" ...