营运方面，该行预期明年首季海底捞的翻桌率将有正面势头，料经营利润率压力将于今年下半年逐步纾 缓，并于明年进一步恢复，受惠于公司在今年完成店铺改造，该行指，海底捞仍然是其在中国餐饮板块 的首选，明年将更看好休闲餐饮企业而非快餐公司。 花旗发布研报称，刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议中，政府强调计划清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服 务消费潜力。该行预期政府将在2026年放宽部分反奢华消费措施，而休闲餐饮企业如海底捞(06862)， 较快餐企业更能受惠。该行对海底捞开启30天正面催化观察，现予目标价18.5港元及"买入"评级。 ...

营运方面，该行预期明年首季海底捞的翻桌率将有正面势头，料经营利润率压力将于今年下半年逐步纾 缓，并于明年进一步恢复，受惠于公司在今年完成店铺改造，该行指，海底捞仍然是其在中国餐饮板块 的首选，明年将更看好休闲餐饮企业而非快餐公司。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议中，政府强调计划清理消费领域不合 理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力。该行预期政府将在2026年放宽部分反奢华消费措施，而休闲餐饮企业 如海底捞(06862)，较快餐企业更能受惠。该行对海底捞开启30天正面催化观察，现予目标价18.5港元 及"买入"评级。 ...

国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在发布会上表示，今年以来，提振消费专项行动深入实施，消费品以旧换 新政策发力显效，促进了消费规模扩大，消费结构升级、消费动能焕新，带动了消费潜能释放。1-11月 份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，增速不仅快于上年同期，也快于上年全年。近期社会消费品零 售总额增速有所回落，主要是因为去年同期基数较高。从累计增速来看，今年的社会消费品零售总额增 长好于去年。从11月份情况来看，市场销售继续扩大，服务消费增长较快，新型消费继续壮大。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

二是要有丰富的内容可以消费。一说消费，很容易首先想到吃饭穿衣，但衣食已经撑不起市场的扩容，广义的精神消 费，包括服务消费必须跟上来，而这方面的限制就会多一些，政策也容易变动。 公报说，要"清理消费领域不合理限制 措施，释放服务消费潜力"。希望各地都能够解放思想，把这个精神推进得全面，到位。 三是要让人们有时间消费。太忙，实际假期太短，加班太多，这在我们社会有相当的普遍性。而且，近年来，这个问题 有所加重。增加的工作时间，有一部分是忙形式主义去了，另一部分是忙内卷去了。上级要求高，周围又很卷，找工作 又不容易，人们普遍有了更大压力，延长实际工作时间成了一种有普遍性的无奈。这个问题一定要有所突破。 四是要有心情消费。社会上要形成消费的氛围，比如这些年，旅游消费的氛围就很浓，这非常好。但是"高档消费"的氛 围变低落了，除了很多人的收入压力大了，更考虑省钱了，还因为网上舆论对档次高一些的消费变得冷漠，甚至不友 好。 低调、不露富成为安全的座右铭，这种价值取向的强化产生了抑制消费的种种潜移默化效应。 老胡说的肯定不够全面，但我相信，为促消费，上边这几条都很重要。 中央经济工作会议谈及明年重点任务，第一条就是坚持内需主导 ...

Core Viewpoint - The notice issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau emphasizes the need to strengthen collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption significantly [1][4]. Group 1: Strengthening Collaboration - Local commerce departments and financial management departments are encouraged to enhance communication and establish a coordinated working mechanism to address challenges in financial support for consumption expansion [4][5]. - Financial institutions are urged to align their resources and services with existing policies to actively support consumption growth [5][11]. Group 2: Financial Support for Key Consumption Areas - The notice highlights the importance of increasing financial support for service consumption, particularly in sectors like home services, hospitality, entertainment, education, tourism, and elderly care [2][8]. - Financial products and services should be innovated to better integrate into consumption scenarios and ecosystems, promoting the use of loans and financing for service-oriented businesses [2][8]. Group 3: New Consumption Models - The document encourages the development of new consumption models, including green consumption, digital consumption, and AI-driven consumption, while ensuring risk control and commercial sustainability [9]. - Financial institutions are advised to collaborate with e-commerce platforms and social media to create tailored financial services that cater to the unique characteristics of online shopping [9]. Group 4: Promoting Consumption Activities - Financial institutions are encouraged to participate in local consumption promotion activities, offering specialized products and services to reach a broader consumer base [11][12]. - The notice suggests the use of digital currency and smart contracts to enhance the efficiency of subsidy distribution and targeted policies [11]. Group 5: Information Sharing and Consumer Protection - Local commerce departments are tasked with creating a list of key projects in the consumption sector to facilitate information sharing with financial institutions, ensuring precise service delivery [12]. - The importance of consumer rights protection is emphasized, guiding consumers towards rational borrowing and spending practices [12].

商务部等三部门发布关于加强商务和金融协同，更大力度提振消费的通知。其中提到，扩大服务消费。 完善"1+N"政策措施体系，加大服务消费政策支持力度。结合家政、住宿餐饮、文体娱乐、教育、旅 游、养老托育等重点服务消费发展趋向和特点，创新金融产品和服务，更多嵌入消费场景、融入消费生 态。用好用足服务消费与养老再贷款，激励引导金融机构在自主决策前提下加强对接服务，积极向服务 消费领域和养老领域经营主体发放贷款；建立健全重点企业、项目和活动推介机制，主动向金融机构推 送。扩大知识产权、科技成果等无形资产质押融资服务，丰富适合小微企业的金融产品，发展商业保险 年金、商业健康保险、意外伤害保险等保险产品，提高金融对服务消费的适配性，促进优化服务供给。 ...

来源：招商证券股份有限公司 中央经济工作会议12 月10 日至11 日在北京举行。会议整体延续政治局会议相对积极的表态。短期来 看，过去10 年间，会后7 天大盘风格往往相对占优。 行业表现上，从平均超额收益水平来看，近5 年，社会服务、公用事业、煤炭、传媒这五个行业会后7 天平均超额水平相对更高。中长期来看，建议重点关注会议"推动投资止跌回稳"下，明年重大项目的安 排。 中央经济工作会议召开，建议关注四个增量信息： 一是经济形势研判中添加了"供强需弱"表述，意味着对当前需求侧下滑的重视程度提高，后续针对需求 侧的政策有望密集出台。 二是明年狭义赤字率有望维持4%。本次会议提到"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强 财政科学管理"。相较于去年的"提高财政赤字率…加大财政支出强度…增加发行超长期特别国债…增加 地方政府专项债券发行使用"有明确表明安排增量的表述不多。但通稿同时提到"重视解决地方财政困 难"、"适当增加中央预算内投资规模"，后续中央财政发力仍有诉求，因此狭义赤字率有望维持4%。 三是货币政策提到"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，明年在多项货币政 策目标中，促进经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 strategy conference held by Zhongtai Securities highlighted the importance of the capital market in serving national strategies and empowering the real economy, with a focus on structural opportunities driven by advanced manufacturing and emerging industries, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence [2][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Structure and Opportunities - The Chinese economic structure is characterized by a strong supply but weak demand, leading to downward pressure on prices, which is a structural issue involving industrial and income distribution [7]. - Despite challenges, structural opportunities exist, particularly in advanced manufacturing and emerging industries led by AI, which are transforming the economic landscape and creating new industry prosperity [8]. - The improvement in listed companies' profitability supports the performance of the A-share market, with a year-on-year growth of 5.47% in the first three quarters, surpassing the actual GDP growth rate [10]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Investment Directions - The capital market is expected to present more structural opportunities in 2026, particularly in technology and new consumption sectors, as traditional consumption growth is limited [9][11]. - Zhongtai Securities' strategy chief analyst, Xu Chi, anticipates a structural market rotation in 2026, focusing on key areas such as technology innovation and reducing reliance on Western supply chains [11][12]. - Four key investment directions for 2026 include: 1) Gold and related sectors due to geopolitical tensions; 2) AI technology stocks expected to perform well; 3) Emerging consumption related to younger demographics; 4) High dividend and fixed-income-like assets [13].

导语："投资大家谈"是点拾投资的公益内容栏目，希望通过每周日不定期的推送，让更多人看到 基金经理对投资和市场的思考。"投资大家谈"栏目内容以公益类的分享为主，不带有基金产品的 代码和信息，也必须来自基金经理的内容创作。 也欢迎大家给我们投稿：azhu830 yeah.net！ 下面，我们分享来自鹏华基金的最新12月思考。年底权益市场进入短期震荡，但不改未来趋势， 短期调整或为投资者带来较好的为来年布局机会。当前债券市场虽然未出现明确主线，但利率并 未对四季度基本面的边际走弱和可能的流动性宽松定价，市场留有足够的宏观叙事空间。海外市 场，美股重拾升势，美元转弱，美债收益率下行，信用利差收窄。展望未来，主动权益、固定收 益、量化指数以及多元资产有哪些投资机会值得重点关注？本期月观，我们邀请了鹏华基本面投 资专家和大家一起分享最新的深度投资观点。 主动权益 王海青 鹏华基金研究部副总经理 市场向上趋势与主线并未改变，短期调整给投资者带来较好的为来年布局的机会。我们看好以科 技为代表的先进制造业，也看好以有色、化工为代表的周期以及非银方向。 年底市场进入短期震荡，但不改未来趋势。 市场在经历三季度科技主线大涨之后，上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "National Subsidy" policy has significantly boosted consumption, benefiting over 360 million consumers and generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in consumption from January to November 2025 [1]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The "National Subsidy" has led to substantial exchanges, including over 11.2 million old cars, 12.844 million old home appliances, and 9.015 million digital products [1]. - The official deadline for the 2025 "National Subsidy" is set for the end of this month, with no extensions or additional budgets available once the funds are exhausted [1][2]. Group 2: Future Expectations - The "National Subsidy" policy is expected to continue into 2026, with potential adjustments to its core rules [3][6]. - The funding for the "National Subsidy" increased from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025, with expectations for a slight increase or maintenance of this scale in 2026 [8][9]. Group 3: Changes in Subsidy Categories - The 2025 policy expanded to include three new digital product categories and four new home appliance categories, indicating a shift towards more diverse consumer goods [13]. - Future policies may focus more on service consumption, targeting areas such as cultural tourism, sports, and health care, while also emphasizing green and smart products [13][14]. Group 4: Regulatory Adjustments - Due to issues like scalping and fraudulent transactions in 2025, the 2026 "National Subsidy" may implement stricter eligibility criteria and smarter regulatory measures to ensure funds reach genuine consumers [16].