| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/9/18 | 星期四 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4516.80 | 4507.40 | 4489.20 | 4466.00 | 前日收盘价 | 4553.20 | 4541.80 | 4518.20 | 4492.80 | | | 涨跌 | 36.20 | 34.80 | 31.60 | 30.20 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | 0.80 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of policy measures aimed at expanding service consumption, which is seen as a crucial driver for economic growth and improving living standards [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The policy measures focus on addressing bottlenecks in service consumption development, emphasizing the combination of improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption [1]. - Initiatives include creating high-profile sports events, expanding long-term care insurance, and supporting early childhood education to enhance service consumption [1]. - The measures aim to optimize supply and stimulate demand by promoting new consumption models and increasing quality service resources in sectors like culture and tourism [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - In the first half of the year, over 19 million foreign visitors entered China, marking a 30% year-on-year increase, with visa-free entries rising by 54% [3]. - The number of duty-free shops has tripled compared to the end of 2024, with a 248% increase in the number of people benefiting from duty-free refunds [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce is working to enhance high-quality consumption supply and create diverse consumption scenarios to boost inbound consumption [3]. Group 3: Service Quality Improvement - The government plans to enhance service supply quality by promoting innovation in service sectors through initiatives like "Artificial Intelligence+" [4]. - There is a focus on improving service levels in key areas such as childcare, elderly care, and tourism by increasing skilled labor supply and implementing credit systems [4][5]. - The establishment of a unified market environment is being prioritized to facilitate fair market access, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises [5]. Group 4: Financial Support - The People's Bank of China has allocated 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care refinancing, encouraging financial institutions to increase lending in key service sectors [5]. - As of July, the loan balance in key service consumption areas reached 2.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding service consumption to stimulate economic growth and enhance the quality of domestic demand, highlighting the need for structural improvements in service supply to meet evolving consumer needs [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - Domestic demand is identified as the fundamental driver of economic development, with a focus on boosting consumption to create a virtuous cycle within the national economy [1]. - In 2024, domestic demand is projected to contribute 69.7% to economic growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 44.5%, indicating a gap compared to the international average of 50% [1]. - The current service consumption rate in China is approximately 46.1%, suggesting significant room for growth given the country's GDP level [1]. Group 2: Service Consumption Trends - China's middle-income group is the largest globally and is shifting from goods consumption to service consumption, indicating a growing demand for higher-quality, personalized, and experiential services [2]. - There exists a structural contradiction in service supply, characterized by an oversupply of low-end and homogeneous services, while specialized and personalized offerings are insufficient [2]. Group 3: Quality of Service Supply - Enhancing the quality of service supply is crucial for stimulating new consumer demand, as the unique characteristics of service consumption, such as localization and high elasticity, create challenges in meeting market needs [3]. - The article suggests that relaxing entry barriers and regulatory policies in sectors like healthcare, education, and telecommunications can attract more investment and improve service quality [3]. Group 4: Trust Mechanisms in Service Consumption - Addressing trust issues in service consumption is essential, as the simultaneous production and consumption of services lead to reliance on reputation and reviews, which can deter consumer engagement if information costs are high [4]. - Promoting professionalization and standardization in the service industry can reduce perceived risks for consumers, while ensuring consumer rights protection can compel businesses to enhance service quality [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Service consumption is viewed as a key growth engine for the economy, with the potential to better meet the public's demand for improved living standards [5]. - The article advocates for greater internal and external openness, encouraging innovation and competition to drive high-quality development in the service sector [5].

本报北京9月17日讯（记者冯其予）国新办17日举行新闻发布会，介绍近日公开发布的《关于扩大服务 消费的若干政策措施》有关情况。商务部副部长盛秋平表示，近年来，我国消费市场规模稳步扩大，消 费结构持续优化，消费潜能加速释放，服务消费表现亮眼。 为进一步优化服务消费领域供给，商务部会同国家发展改革委、文化和旅游部、中国人民银行等9部门 坚持"对外开放、对内放开"，统筹利用财政、金融等手段，优化服务供给，激发服务消费新增量。据了 解，《政策措施》从培育服务消费促进平台、丰富高品质服务供给、激发服务消费新增量等5个方面提 出19项任务举措。 盛秋平表示，《政策措施》以推动扩大服务消费为主要目标，着力解决制约服务消费发展的堵点卡点问 题，提出了一些让经营主体有真切获得感的增量政策，主要体现为"三个坚持"，坚持惠民生和促消费相 结合，坚持优化供给和激发需求相结合，坚持对外开放和对内放开相结合。例如，《政策措施》提 出"打造一批具有较高知名度的精品赛事、职业联赛以及具有自主知识产权的体育竞赛表演品牌"，提 出"加快推进长期护理保险制度建设，扩大长期护理保险制度覆盖面"，还提出"支持有条件的幼儿园招 收2—3岁幼儿，发展社区 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】日前，商务部副部长盛秋平和国家发展改革委、文化和旅游部、中国人民银行 有关负责人介绍扩大服务消费有关政策措施时表示，下一步我国将选择50个左右消费新业态新模式新场 景试点城市；出台住宿业高质量发展、铁路与旅游融合发展等一系列政策文件；推动人工智能在服务消 费等领域加快应用；用好结构性货币政策工具，增强消费领域资金供给。 湖北恩施则宣布启动全国县域商业消费季活动，活动从9月持续至11月份，聚焦流通设施提档升级、服 务业态创新发展和消费场景优化提升，将在全国组织31场重点活动。 四川省中江县也举行活动启动仪式，宣布将打造龙台镇购物新集市，设置展位92个，整合非遗项目11 个、特色产品43个、以旧换新等促消费政策4个。 文化和旅游部产业发展司司长缪沐阳在会上介绍，商务部将于下周启动全国国庆文旅消费月，消费月期 间各地将开展超过25000场文旅消费活动，发放超过3.3亿元消费补贴，各地也陆续出台扩大文旅消费专 项政策。 同日，江苏省泰州市姜堰区举办了以"泰享消费·游购姜城"为主题的现场活动，活动期间设置县域风味 街、苏品苏货、贸通全球、泰美生活、好物姜姜好等"五大主题"活动场景消费区，内容覆盖本 ...

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9月17日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，商务部、国家发展改革委、文化和旅游部和中国人民银 行相关负责人就《政策措施》的主要内容及亮点进行介绍，并透露下一步政策动向。商务部相关负责人 表示，将出台住宿业高质量发展、铁路与旅游融合发展等一系列政策文件，形成政策"组合拳"，促进服 务消费高质量发展。 改善型服务消费活力不断增强 近日，商务部会同国家发展改革委、文化和旅游部、中国人民银行等9部门印发了《关于扩大服务消费 的若干政策措施》（下称《政策措施》），提出5个方面19项任务举措释放服务消费潜力。 服务消费是提振消费、扩大内需的重要方面。年初以来，商务部已会同相关部门出台了增开银发旅游列 车、家政服务消费扩容升级、促进健康消费、服务消费提质惠民等政策文件，同时，财政部等部门还推 出了服务消费与养老再贷款、服务业经营主体贷款贴息和个人消费贷款贴息等政策。 据初步统计，围绕建立服务消费"1+N"政策体系，相关部门目前已经出台了30多项政策文件。商务部服 务贸易和商贸服务业司司长孔德军透露，接下来，商务部还将出台住宿业高质量发展、铁路与旅游融合 发展等一系列的政策文件，形成政策"组合拳"。 对于《政策措施》中提到的 ...

商务部会同国家发展改革委、文化和旅游部、中国人民银行等9部门近日印发《关于扩大服务消费的若 干政策措施》。9月17日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，介绍扩大服务消费有关政策措施。 今年以来，一系列政策措施助推入境消费潜力不断释放。上半年，各口岸入境外国人超1900万人次，同 比增长30%，其中免签入境1364万人次，同比增长54%。截至8月底，全国离境退税商店超1万家，是 2024年底的3倍；1至8月，享受离境退税人数同比增长248%，退税销售额增长98%。商务部将与相关部 门一道，加强统筹协调和政策支持，不断丰富高品质消费供给，开展国际化消费环境建设，持续打造多 元化消费场景，推动扩大入境消费。 "服务消费一头连着经济、一头连着民生，具有消费频次高、乘数效应强、增长可持续等方面特点。"商 务部服务贸易和商贸服务业司司长孔德军说，围绕建立服务消费"1+N"政策体系，相关部门已出台30多 项政策文件。接下来还会出台住宿业高质量发展、铁路与旅游融合发展等系列政策文件，形成政策"组 合拳"。 此外，商务部还将指导地方举办美食荟、旅游季、展演季、养老月、时尚周等形式新颖、特色鲜明、丰 富多样的活动，积极培育服务消费新热 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of policy measures aimed at expanding service consumption, which is seen as a crucial driver for economic growth and improving living standards [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The policy measures focus on addressing bottlenecks in service consumption development, emphasizing the combination of improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption [1]. - Initiatives include creating high-profile sports events, expanding long-term care insurance, and supporting early childhood education to enhance service consumption [1]. - The measures aim to optimize supply and stimulate demand by promoting new consumption models and enhancing consumer credit support [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - In the first half of the year, over 19 million foreign visitors entered China, marking a 30% year-on-year increase, with a significant rise in tax refund sales [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce has coordinated with various departments to enhance high-quality consumption supply and develop diverse consumption scenarios [3]. - A "1+N" policy system has been established, with over 30 policy documents released to support service consumption [3]. Group 3: Service Quality Improvement - The government aims to enhance service supply quality by promoting innovation and integrating various consumption sectors [4]. - Initiatives include the establishment of training bases for high-skilled service personnel and implementing a credit system to ensure consumer trust [4]. - The focus is on creating a favorable market environment by removing entry barriers for businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises [5]. Group 4: Financial Support - The People's Bank of China has allocated 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care refinancing, encouraging financial institutions to increase lending in key service sectors [5]. - As of July, the loan balance in key service consumption areas reached 2.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a 5.3% year-on-year growth [5].

重要消息 美联储如期降息25个基点； 四连板上海建工：公司黄金业务收入占公司营业收入比例较低。 经济运行稳中向好，8月份财政收入继续回暖； 组合驾驶辅助系统将迎国家标准。 重要的消息有哪些 当地时间9月17日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定将 联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%—4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降 息。美联储预测显示，到年底将再降息50个基点，未来两年每年再降息25个基点。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国失业率维持在低位但略有上升。通胀近期有所上升，仍处于略高水平。美 国通胀风险上行，就业风险下行。明年之后，多数通胀预期指标将符合2%的目标。预计今年和明年关税 推动的价格上涨趋势将持续。鲍威尔补充说，美联储应该观望关税、通胀和劳动力市场如何发展，然后 再降息。 财政部发布2025年1—8月财政收支情况，1—8月，全国一般公共预算收入148198亿元，同比增长0.3%。 其中，全国税收收入121085亿元，同比微增0.02%；非税收入27113亿元，同比增长1.5%。分中央和地方 看，中央一般公共预算收入64268亿元， ...